Goodby (maybe), Zack Granite

The Twins on Monday officially signed Marwin Gonzalez. To make room on the 40 man roster, they designated Zack Granite for assignment.

Granite, whose last name sounds like he should be from Stearns County, put up some impressive batting averages as he climbed the ladder of the Twins system. He's a good contact hitter, he can run, and he is a good defensive outfielder. But his power is limited, and that lowers his ceiling to that of fourth outfielder.

There's not much room on the Twins roster for that. Jake Cave, also a left-handed hitter -- and with power -- moved past Granite on the depth chart last year, when Granite had injury issues and did not produce at Triple A.

And unless somebody gets hurt, Cave is probably not going to make the major league roster either,  because Gonzalez gives the Twins a fourth outfielder behind (or more accurately alongside) Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler.

It's also possible that LaMonte Wade, who was added to the 40-man roster during the offseason, is ahead of Granite in the Twins estimation. Wade isn't the center fielder that Granite is, but the Twins don't really need their fourth outfielder to be a true center fielder because they can play Kepler or Rosario there if Buxton is out of the lineup. Wade, I think, figures to be a better hitter than Granite, but not good enough to be a major league regular. He too appears to be a fourth outfielder type.

So Granite is redundant on the Twins roster. Maybe somebody will decide he's an upgrade on somebody else on their 40-man roster, but I suspect that a slap hitter coming off a .211 season in Triple A isn't going to get claimed on waivers.

The opening roster takes shape

Hardly had I gotten Thursday's post published than the Twins did other than predicted. Tyler Duffey was optioned out (as was Alan Busenitz), leaving the Twins with 13 pitchers for 12 spots. The final spot figures to go to either Gabriel Moya or Tyler Kinley, with Kinley favored.

This suggests that the decison makers are confident that the starters are prepared to give them some length when the season opens next week. That hasn't been the outlook in recent years. Keeping Duffey and Phil Hughes would have given the Twins a fifth starter and a long reliever (or two spot starters/long men). Instead, it's just the post-operative Hughes.

Duffey will be used in relief in Rochester but in a stretched-out way, akin to how he was used last season. And he'll be in Minnesota sooner than later. There will be a need for innings out of the bullpen.

More surprising to me, in truth, was the lopping of veteran non-roster infielder Erick Aybar. I had been resigned to the notion that the suspension of Jorge Polanco and the uncertainty over Miguel Sano meant that Aybar, who hit well early in camp and then faded, was going to be on the opening roster.

Instead, it appears that the Twins intend to have five outfielders open the season in the majors. This may be related to Eddie Rosario's multi-week issues with his throwing elbow.

The conventional wisdom has Robbie Grossman and Zack Granite as the extra outfielders. I wouldn't rule out Ryan LaMarre, but he does have the significant disadvantage of being a non-roster guy.

And Mitch Garver will be the backup catcher. Bobby Wilson and Willians Astudillo were both told they won't be on the opening roster.

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Kennys Vargas was claimed on waivers by the Cincinnati Reds, which is a bit puzzling. The Reds, as a National League team, have little need for a designated hitter, and Vargas should not be taking at-bats away from the great Joey Votto.

Best guess is that the Reds will quickly waive Vargas in hopes of stashing him at Triple A, which I think is what the Twins were hoping to do.

Low-key competitions: Outfield

When the Twins signed Logan Morrison to be their primary designated hitter, Paul Molitor made a point of telling reporters that he had warned Robbie Grossman -- 2017's primary DH  --  that Grossman would have to make the roster as an outfielder.

The issue wth that is that Grossman is a terrible defensive outfielder.

There is a prototype for fourth outfielders:

• fast enough to play center field
• too weak at the plate to be a regular (but still good enough to get some at-bats), 
• left handed or a switch hitter for platoon purposes, since most pitchers are right-handed. 

In the Twins specific case, however, the third point is off kilter. Because two of the three regular outfielders, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, are left-handed hitters with problems against lefties, the Twins would prefer their fourth outfielder be right-handed. And Rosario or Kepler are capable of sliding over to play center when Byron Buxton sits.

Grossman misses on the first point. Zack Granite fits the usual form perfectly but hits left-handed, so he's not much of a platoon partner to Rosario or Kepler.

There are a couple of right-handed hitting non-roster outfielders in camp.

Chris Heisey, 33, has compiled more than 1,750 major league plate appearances over the past eight seasons with three clubs (Reds, Dodgers, Nationals). He has not, however, been notably useful as a platoon player (his OPS, On-base Plus Slugging, is notably better against righties for his career), and he's probably not capable of playing center field well at this stage in his career. He hasn't hit much the past three years in limited playing time, and he hasn't hit much this spring.

Ryan LaMarre, 29, has -- his spring training batting average is above .500, which is obviously ridiculous and not to be maintained. He lacks Heisey's track record (just 40 major league at-bats) but is obviously fast enough to play center. Despite the gaudy Grapefruit League numbers, his minor league record isn't that impressive.

Grossman should still be reckoned the most likely fourth outfielder. But even if he opens the season on the roster, his position is not secure. His fielding issues are deep enough that he's got to hit to get in the lineup, and he didn't mash lefties as well in 2017 as he did in 2016. 

LaMarre has had an impressive camp so far. And it's also possible that the fourth outfielder is in somebody else's camp waiting to be waived or traded.

Notes, quotes and comment

Friday was quite the busy day in Twinsdom. Let's get chronologic:

* Joe Mauer went on the disabled list with Kennys Vargas recalled. The Twins demoted Vargas on Monday to reactivate Ehire Adrianza. Mauer injured his back on Tuesday, and the Twins dawdled a couple of days before pulling the trigger, presumably (as I noted Thursday) because Vargas hasn't given them a lot of reason to get excited about playing him.

So naturally Vargas went 3-for-4 with a double and a couple RBIs.

*Brandon Kintzler was one of a handful of replacement All-Stars named Friday, and good for him. That gives the Twins three members of the AL squad: Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana and Kintzler.

Kintzler currently leads the American League in saves, which

• is meaningless as an evaluative stat and
• made his selection almost inevitable.

* The Twins signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal.

Colon became an unlikely cult hero in his three years with the Mets; he's old (44), fat (listed at 285 pounds) and amusingly inept at the plate. But the Braves released him after he put up an 8.18 ERA in 13 starts.

colon will start at triple-a rochester with twins. but plan is to get him up asap

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 8, 2017

I'm not optimistic about Colon. But I'm not optimistic about the rotation "fixes" on hand either. Derek Falvey told the press corps during the game that Colon thinks he can correct himself and pitch beyond this season, and noted (accurately) that Colon has reinvented himself as a pitcher a few times. So we'll see; the Twins have a minimal investment in "Big Sexy," so all they have to lose are a couple of games.

* Felix Jorge started, got shelled, got demoted (that last, as least, as predicted here).

Roy Smalley drew a Johan Santana comp to Jorge early in the game on FSN, which is ridiculous. Santana is left-handed and threw harder than Jorge. A more realistic comp, at least in terms of what kind of pitcher Jorge might become, is Brad Radke -- a fastball that sits around 90, a good change-up, top-notch command of both pitches.

And, hey, if Jorge becomes Radke, that's marvelous. He's not there yet. He has no chance of becoming Santana. And the signing of Colon, plus the presence in Rochester of Dillon Gee (opt-out date July 15), plus Friday's failed outing  -- that all adds up to he's not getting another shot at the majors anytime soon. Jorge is returning to Chattanooga, and I would expect to see him back in September but not before.

* Outfielder Zack Granite was recalled. He's hitting .360 in Rochester, which is good. He's drawn about as many walks in Rochester as Eddie Rosario has in Minnesota, which is less good, and has far less power.

The gaudy batting average not withstanding, Granite is a fringe prospect, a protoypical fourth outfielder -- left-handed contact hitter, fast enough to play center, not enough pop to be a regular. And as a lefty bat, he's not a particularly good fit as a backup in an outfield with Rosario and Max Kepler among the regulars.

Granite is, at best, Ben Revere with a better arm.

My prediction: He won't be up long.

*Byron Buxton scored from first base on a single to center. Wowzers.

Anybody who thinks Granite should get Buck's playing time is deluded. Baseball Reference, at this writing, has Buxton as the third-most valuable player on the 2017 Twins with 1.8 WAR, behind Ervin Santana and Kepler and fractionally ahead of Sano.

Notes, quotes and comment

A few news items and links that piled up last week while I did my silly "Guess Who" series:

* Alex Kirilloff, the Twins' first-round draftee last June and their No. 3 prospect in the Baseball America rankings, will have Tommy John surgery this week and is out for the season.

Comment: Kirilloff is no longer incentive to get to Cedar Rapids before Memorial Day. I had figured that he might, as Byron Buxton did, spend only a half season or so in the Midwest League, and I wanted to see the kid hit before he moved on. Wait until next year.

* Fangraphs issued its "all KATOH" team -- minor leaguers whose stats impress but who are not, for various reasons, beloved by scouts. Three Twins farmhands make this imaginary roster: second baseman Luis Arraez, outfielder Zack Granite, and pitcher Adalberto Mejia.

Comment: Accurately judging prospects requires more than "scouting the stat line," but production matters too. If they keep producing, they'll get their chance despite the scouts' reservations about their physical limitations.

* This is set to publish less than a half-hour before the first game of the World Baseball Classic, with Pool A and Pool B opening play in South Korea and Japan.

Comment: The WBC isn't a big deal here in the States -- Noah Syndergaard turned down Team USA and said something like: Nobody goes to the Hall of Fame or wins the World Series by playing in the WBC -- but it is to a lot of the non-Amercian players, and the Twins have a goodly number slated to play in this tournament.

* And, finally, I recommend this Jeff Passan piece on Statcast and MLB Advanced Media's efforts to make advanced stats accessible and digestible.

Plouffe, there he goes

Trevor Plouffe had
a series of injuries
that limited him to
less than 350 plate
appearances in 2016.

Friday was the deadline for teams to add Rule 5-eligible prospects to the 40 man roster.

In a related development, it was also the day the Twins released veteran third baseman Trevor Plouffe.

They also outrighted catcher Juan Centeno and lost slugging prospect Adam Brett Walker on waivers to the Milwaukee Brewers.

These moves opened three more slots on the 40-man roster, The Twins filled six of the seven vacancies with prospects: catcher Mitch Garver; outfielders Daniel Palka and Zack Granite; shortstop Engelb Vielma; and right-handed starters Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge.

Plouffe's departure is the biggest news, if only because manager Paul Molitor -- and Ron Gardenhire before him -- made the one-time first round draft pick a fixture in the middle of the lineup. He was always an ill fit in a key lineup role, with low on-base percentages and mediocre slugging percentages. He had made himself into a above-average defensive third baseman, but his varied injuries last year slowed his reaction to batted balls.

Presumably the new brain trust found little interest in Plouffe as trade bait, and the roster spot was deemed more valuable than the veteran. Certainly, with Miguel Sano's outfield venture deemed a failure last season, there wasn't an obvious role for Plouffe on the 2017 Twins. Sano's going to be the third baseman in Minnesota now.

Plouffe, who turned 30 in June, will land somewhere. I certainly don't wish him ill, but it was clearly time for him to move on.