The portion of Friday's post that regarded Matt Belisle emphatically stands.
He didn't cost the Twins Friday's game, but he certainly made sure they were out of it. I can't see how he makes it through the month, mentor or no.
Showing posts with label Matt Belisle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Belisle. Show all posts
Saturday, June 23, 2018
Friday, June 22, 2018
On the bullpen
It would be inaccurate to blame the Twins loss Thursday on the bullpen. The lineup contributed zero runs to the cause until the ninth inning against one of Boston's lower leverage pitchers.
But the bullpen -- specifically Ryan Pressly and Matt Belisle -- did turn a close game into a rout, and there were big-picture choices involved that made that outcome more likely than not.
Choice One: The heavy use of Pressly.
Thursday was the 71st game the Twins have played this year. It was the 37th appearance for Pressly, who has now appeared in 52.1 percent of the Twins games. At that usage rate, he would pitch in 84 games. This would not be a record -- 1970s relief legend Mike Marshall pitched had three seasons, with three different clubs, of at least 90 appearances (the last being the Twins in 1979).
But using Pressly at the frequency of Iron Mike is beginning to backfire. He has surrendered multiple runs in four of his last six outings, and his ERA, which entered the month at 2.22, is now at 4.15.
Of course, somebody has to pitch. And the Twins have four other relievers (Zach Duke, Trevor Hildenberger, Addison Reed and Taylor Rodgers) with at least 30 appearances apiece, and Hildenberger, has pitched more innings than Pressly.
Which brings us to the second choice.
Choice Two: The presence of Matt Belisle on the roster.
The Twins have eight relievers on their roster -- the above mentioned five hard-worked middle/setup men, closer Fernando Rodney, Matt Magill and Belisle.
Magill has pitched well (1.46 ERA after Thursday's mopup inning), but Paul Molitor seems reluctant to use him in game situations.
And Belisle -- well, we saw him quite a bit last season, and what we saw then remains true now. He's not a guy you can use with frequency, and he's prone to outings that just get away from him. One of them was Thursday: one inning, four hits, three runs.
Between the Twins and Cleveland, Belisle has made 12 major league appearances this season. He wasn't charged with a run in eight of them, and he allowed just one run in another. But he's now had three multiple-run outings, and they have ballooned his ERA to 5.93. (He showed a similar tendency in Triple A after Cleveland outrighted him earlier in the season.)
The Twins apparently love Belisle as a mentor, but the first job is getting outs. If the Twins are going to carry that extra reliever, it has to be somebody who can lighten the burden on guys like Pressly and Reed, who are showing signs of fatigue. That's not Belisle.
But the bullpen -- specifically Ryan Pressly and Matt Belisle -- did turn a close game into a rout, and there were big-picture choices involved that made that outcome more likely than not.
Choice One: The heavy use of Pressly.
Thursday was the 71st game the Twins have played this year. It was the 37th appearance for Pressly, who has now appeared in 52.1 percent of the Twins games. At that usage rate, he would pitch in 84 games. This would not be a record -- 1970s relief legend Mike Marshall pitched had three seasons, with three different clubs, of at least 90 appearances (the last being the Twins in 1979).
But using Pressly at the frequency of Iron Mike is beginning to backfire. He has surrendered multiple runs in four of his last six outings, and his ERA, which entered the month at 2.22, is now at 4.15.
Of course, somebody has to pitch. And the Twins have four other relievers (Zach Duke, Trevor Hildenberger, Addison Reed and Taylor Rodgers) with at least 30 appearances apiece, and Hildenberger, has pitched more innings than Pressly.
Which brings us to the second choice.
Choice Two: The presence of Matt Belisle on the roster.
The Twins have eight relievers on their roster -- the above mentioned five hard-worked middle/setup men, closer Fernando Rodney, Matt Magill and Belisle.
Magill has pitched well (1.46 ERA after Thursday's mopup inning), but Paul Molitor seems reluctant to use him in game situations.
And Belisle -- well, we saw him quite a bit last season, and what we saw then remains true now. He's not a guy you can use with frequency, and he's prone to outings that just get away from him. One of them was Thursday: one inning, four hits, three runs.
Between the Twins and Cleveland, Belisle has made 12 major league appearances this season. He wasn't charged with a run in eight of them, and he allowed just one run in another. But he's now had three multiple-run outings, and they have ballooned his ERA to 5.93. (He showed a similar tendency in Triple A after Cleveland outrighted him earlier in the season.)
The Twins apparently love Belisle as a mentor, but the first job is getting outs. If the Twins are going to carry that extra reliever, it has to be somebody who can lighten the burden on guys like Pressly and Reed, who are showing signs of fatigue. That's not Belisle.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
Belisle's back
The @Twins have signed free agent RHP Matt Belisle - he will join the team in Detroit (number 19). To make room on the roster they have DFA'd Gregorio Petit.— Dustin Morse (@morsecode) June 12, 2018
Ugh.
I not only do not care for this signing, I actively despise it as a symptom of the fetishization of the "proven veteran."
Follow along: Belisle signed with the Cleveland Indians during the offseason. He allowed six runs in 10.2 innings, at which point the Tribe DFA'd him and he cleared waivers. He accepted a demotion to Triple A, where he gave up five runs in another 10.2 innings, whereupon Cleveland released him.
And the Twins promptly gave him a major-league contract.
Meanwhile, Alan Busenitz has an ERA of 0.38 in Rochester. Zero-point-three-eight. John Curtiss has a 2.31. Luke Bard 2.65. Lefty Gabriel Moya, 1.85.
Here's the thing: the Indians bullpen has been awful all season. They decided Belisle can't help them. The Twins bullpen has been getting overworked, and Belisle last year seldom was asked to pitch on back-to-back days.
Paul Molitor and Co. may love Belisle as a clubhouse presence and as a mentor to young pitchers, but this is not a team with s surplus of novices. The job is to get outs. There are plenty of more likely candidates for that at Rochester.
Monday, August 7, 2017
Getting some relief
The Twins on Sunday had their first save opp since the Brandon Kintzler trade -- really, the first time in more than a week that the bullpen was asked to protect a lead, as Ervin Santana and Bartolo Colon had complete games in their two wins last week.
The 'pen came through: Trevor Hildenberger threw two scoreless innings, Taylor Rogers got through the eighth and Matt Belisle worked a perfect ninth for his first save since 2012.
Not the way I would prefer, but it worked.
Dick Bremer at least twice, and maybe more, invoked Belisle's "senior status" Sunday as justification for giving him at least a share of the closer role. Bremer may be an imperfect conduit for the mind of Paul Molitor, but my working assumption is that the broadcasters for a team reflect the thinking of management. If Molitor genuinely prefers Belisle late in games because he's got more years in the pension plan than anybody else, that's a bad sign.
The veteran has been getting outs more consistently than anybody else in the bullpen for weeks now; Belisle hasn't been charged with a run, earned or unearned, since June. Rogers, meanwhile, had allowed at least one run in six straight appearances befors Sunday.
At least Hildenberger finally got to pitch with a narrow lead.
---
A couple other notes about the pitching staff:
Dillon Gee isn't, as I assumed when he was called up last week, filling the rotation spot vacated by the Jaime Garcia trade. He made his Twins debut in relief, and Kyle Gibson was returned for Saturday's start. It was SOG -- same old Gibson. He got 16 outs and allowed nine baserunners; this is not a good OBP allowed.
And the return of Glen Perkins to the major league bullpen is presumably imminent. Perkins was in the Twin Cities this weekend and will throw what is described as "an extended bullpen session" today, then report to Double-A Chattanooga to continue his rehab assignment. The plan is for him to pitch three times, including one set of back-to-back days.
His rehab assignment officially expires on the 20th. He apparently expects to be back before then. Even with the bullpen roles unsettled, I wouldn't expect Perkins to step back into the ninth inning immediately. But then, I didn't expect Belisle to get the ball in the ninth inning after the Kintzler deal.
The 'pen came through: Trevor Hildenberger threw two scoreless innings, Taylor Rogers got through the eighth and Matt Belisle worked a perfect ninth for his first save since 2012.
Not the way I would prefer, but it worked.
Dick Bremer at least twice, and maybe more, invoked Belisle's "senior status" Sunday as justification for giving him at least a share of the closer role. Bremer may be an imperfect conduit for the mind of Paul Molitor, but my working assumption is that the broadcasters for a team reflect the thinking of management. If Molitor genuinely prefers Belisle late in games because he's got more years in the pension plan than anybody else, that's a bad sign.
The veteran has been getting outs more consistently than anybody else in the bullpen for weeks now; Belisle hasn't been charged with a run, earned or unearned, since June. Rogers, meanwhile, had allowed at least one run in six straight appearances befors Sunday.
At least Hildenberger finally got to pitch with a narrow lead.
---
A couple other notes about the pitching staff:
Dillon Gee isn't, as I assumed when he was called up last week, filling the rotation spot vacated by the Jaime Garcia trade. He made his Twins debut in relief, and Kyle Gibson was returned for Saturday's start. It was SOG -- same old Gibson. He got 16 outs and allowed nine baserunners; this is not a good OBP allowed.
And the return of Glen Perkins to the major league bullpen is presumably imminent. Perkins was in the Twin Cities this weekend and will throw what is described as "an extended bullpen session" today, then report to Double-A Chattanooga to continue his rehab assignment. The plan is for him to pitch three times, including one set of back-to-back days.
His rehab assignment officially expires on the 20th. He apparently expects to be back before then. Even with the bullpen roles unsettled, I wouldn't expect Perkins to step back into the ninth inning immediately. But then, I didn't expect Belisle to get the ball in the ninth inning after the Kintzler deal.
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
One to forget, and remember
The Twins did very little well Tuesday night -- hitting, pitching, fielding -- and got embarrassed by the Boston Red Sox. It happens to every team on occasion.
The rain delay that forced Hector Santiago out of the game early probably didn't help -- not that Santiago was dominating in his two innings, but the Twins certainly wanted him to throw more than 49 pitches in his first start back from the disabled list.
Santiago probably wasn't likely to work deep into the game regardless, but his rain-hastened departure exposed the weak side of the Minnesota bullpen to a potent Boston lineup. Craig Breslow fared worst: three runs (two earned) in one painful inning.
Breslow -- and Matt Belisle, who followed him with two innings in which he allowed three unearned runs -- were signed in part for chemistry reasons. The idea was that a bullpen that figured to contain several younger, inexperienced pitchers would benefit from a a couple of 30-somethings who've been around.
That may be. But the core job is still to get outs. Breslow's ERA now stands at 5.28 -- he had a 2.57 ERA three weeks ago. Belisle's ERA, even after his superficially "effective" two innings, is even worse: 6.53.
The good news is that Paul Molitor avoided using his big three (Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and Brandon Kintzler) to eat innings in a lost game, and Buddy Bosher wasn't deployed for a third straight day. They're presumably all available tonight.
In the longer term, Tuesday further undermines the status of Belisle and, especially, Breslow.
The rain delay that forced Hector Santiago out of the game early probably didn't help -- not that Santiago was dominating in his two innings, but the Twins certainly wanted him to throw more than 49 pitches in his first start back from the disabled list.
Santiago probably wasn't likely to work deep into the game regardless, but his rain-hastened departure exposed the weak side of the Minnesota bullpen to a potent Boston lineup. Craig Breslow fared worst: three runs (two earned) in one painful inning.
Breslow -- and Matt Belisle, who followed him with two innings in which he allowed three unearned runs -- were signed in part for chemistry reasons. The idea was that a bullpen that figured to contain several younger, inexperienced pitchers would benefit from a a couple of 30-somethings who've been around.
That may be. But the core job is still to get outs. Breslow's ERA now stands at 5.28 -- he had a 2.57 ERA three weeks ago. Belisle's ERA, even after his superficially "effective" two innings, is even worse: 6.53.
The good news is that Paul Molitor avoided using his big three (Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and Brandon Kintzler) to eat innings in a lost game, and Buddy Bosher wasn't deployed for a third straight day. They're presumably all available tonight.
In the longer term, Tuesday further undermines the status of Belisle and, especially, Breslow.
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Gee, the bullpen B's
Dillon Gee will probably feel like a ping pong ball soon, if he doesn't already.
The right-handed pitcher was released on June 18 by Texas. The Twins signed him to a minor-league deal on the 22nd. The Twins then called him up on the 24th. He spent three days sitting in the Twins bullpen, and Monday night he was optioned out to Rochester without getting into a game. And even though he hasn't pitched since June 14, there's a pretty good chance the Twins will make him their doubleheader callup for Saturday in Kansas City.
I had assumed Gee, in his eighth major-league season, was out of options when I speculated in the Monday post that the most likely demotions (to make room for Hector Santiago today and probably Phil Hughes later in the week) were from the trio of Trevor Hildenberger, Adam Busenitz and Buddy Boshers. Gee went first. But somebody is likely to go later in the week, and that adds intrigue to Paul Molitor's bullpen choices late in Monday's game.
Jose Berrios gave up two runs in the first (and was probably fortunate that it was only two), then settled in for the next five. But the Twins couldn't do much with Chris Sale and trailed 2-1 going into the bottom of the seventh. Berrios was pulled in the seventh with men on first and third, one out, for Matt Belisle.
Comments: Belisle has a lousy ERA, but almost all his bad outings have come when he started an inning. He's actually fared fairly well at stranding inherited runners; entering Monday's game, he had inherited 12 runners and allowed just two to score. Whether that's just random success or some sort of skill -- and I'm inclined to the randomness theory -- that is doubtless part of why Molitor continues to use the veteran in game situations.
And why not one of the "big three" in the Twins bullpen (Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and Brandon Kintzler)? Probably because
So it made sense to go to the bullpen's second line.
Belisle gave up a single to Dustin Pedroia, driving in a run. Then he threw a sub-optimal pitch that Chris Gimenez failed to corral (ruled a passed ball), putting runners on second and third. Molitor granted Xavier Boegarts the intentional walk, then pulled Belisle for Buddy Boshers with the bases loaded and one out.
Comments: Belisle didn't give Molitor a lot of reason to stick with him in the Pedroia/Boegarts at-bats, and Molitor has seen too many big innings from Belisle already. Can't blame him for getting him out of there. I'm not a fan of the intentional walk to load the bases, but there is a logic behind setting up the double play.
The intriguing thing here is the use of Boshers over fellow lefty Craig Breslow. Boshers worked two innings the day before, and Breslow has pretty clearly been higher in the bullpen heirarchy. But Breslow have given up nine runs in his last seven innings.
Mitch Moreland hit a deep fly off Boshers -- there are several parks in which that ball is a homer -- and the Red Sox had another run, Boshers got the next man to fly to center also, and that ended the inning.
Busenitz got the eighth, and worked a 1-2-3 inning, flashing upper-90s velocity in the process.
So what does all that tell us?
The right-handed pitcher was released on June 18 by Texas. The Twins signed him to a minor-league deal on the 22nd. The Twins then called him up on the 24th. He spent three days sitting in the Twins bullpen, and Monday night he was optioned out to Rochester without getting into a game. And even though he hasn't pitched since June 14, there's a pretty good chance the Twins will make him their doubleheader callup for Saturday in Kansas City.
I had assumed Gee, in his eighth major-league season, was out of options when I speculated in the Monday post that the most likely demotions (to make room for Hector Santiago today and probably Phil Hughes later in the week) were from the trio of Trevor Hildenberger, Adam Busenitz and Buddy Boshers. Gee went first. But somebody is likely to go later in the week, and that adds intrigue to Paul Molitor's bullpen choices late in Monday's game.
Jose Berrios gave up two runs in the first (and was probably fortunate that it was only two), then settled in for the next five. But the Twins couldn't do much with Chris Sale and trailed 2-1 going into the bottom of the seventh. Berrios was pulled in the seventh with men on first and third, one out, for Matt Belisle.
Comments: Belisle has a lousy ERA, but almost all his bad outings have come when he started an inning. He's actually fared fairly well at stranding inherited runners; entering Monday's game, he had inherited 12 runners and allowed just two to score. Whether that's just random success or some sort of skill -- and I'm inclined to the randomness theory -- that is doubtless part of why Molitor continues to use the veteran in game situations.
And why not one of the "big three" in the Twins bullpen (Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and Brandon Kintzler)? Probably because
- The Twins were already behind
- That trio was worked pretty hard in the Cleveland series
- Santiago in't likely to go much more than five innings tonight. If he can keep the Twins in the game, Duffey will likely be needed for one of his usual two-inning stints..
So it made sense to go to the bullpen's second line.
Belisle gave up a single to Dustin Pedroia, driving in a run. Then he threw a sub-optimal pitch that Chris Gimenez failed to corral (ruled a passed ball), putting runners on second and third. Molitor granted Xavier Boegarts the intentional walk, then pulled Belisle for Buddy Boshers with the bases loaded and one out.
Comments: Belisle didn't give Molitor a lot of reason to stick with him in the Pedroia/Boegarts at-bats, and Molitor has seen too many big innings from Belisle already. Can't blame him for getting him out of there. I'm not a fan of the intentional walk to load the bases, but there is a logic behind setting up the double play.
The intriguing thing here is the use of Boshers over fellow lefty Craig Breslow. Boshers worked two innings the day before, and Breslow has pretty clearly been higher in the bullpen heirarchy. But Breslow have given up nine runs in his last seven innings.
Mitch Moreland hit a deep fly off Boshers -- there are several parks in which that ball is a homer -- and the Red Sox had another run, Boshers got the next man to fly to center also, and that ended the inning.
Busenitz got the eighth, and worked a 1-2-3 inning, flashing upper-90s velocity in the process.
So what does all that tell us?
- Boshers may be in better position to stick than Breslow.
- Belisle's status as the "No. 4" reliever, probably based on his success at stranding inherited runners, may be in jeopardy.
- Busenitz has the stuff to be a power reliever.
I don't know long the ropes are for the veterans, Breslow and Belisle. I would like Molitor to be open to replacing either or both, and that may be happening already with Breslow. But that's going to be a process.
Monday, June 12, 2017
Notes, quotes and comment
The Twins ended their essentially successful West Coast marathon (6-4) with another dud of a bullpen performance on Sunday.
I wrote a lot last week about Matt Belisle specifically and the thinness of the bullpen in general -- pretty much every post from Monday through Saturday dealt with the relief corps -- so it was probably fitting that Belisle had a central role in Sunday's late inning collapse.
Belisle's ERA for the season now stands at 8.59, with almost all the damage coming in four appearances. He always figured to be an ill fit for a high-leverage role, but I don't know who else Paul Molitor can use in those situations with the current bullpen without wrecking Tyler Duffey and Brandon Kintzler with overuse. There are just too many mop-up type arms on this staff.
---
The draft begins tonight. I devoted the Monday print column to my thoughts on who and what the the Twins should do with the first overall pick. With, of course, the disclaimer that the Twins know a lot more about this than I do.
I don't expect the Twins to follow my "recommendation," and I certainly won't criticize them when they don't.
One thing I didn't get to in a slightly longer than usual column: Sports Illustrated did nobody any favors by putting Hunter Greene on its cover a few weeks ago. The people who cover the scouting and prospect world for a living say the consensus is that Greene is a lesser prospect than a couple of high school righties from the previous two draft classes.
What makes Greene unique is that he's a viable first-round pick as both a pitcher and a shortstop. But I can't imagine that anybody is going to let him throw a few dozen high-velocity fastballs on Tuesday and play shortstop on Wednesday. He's going to do one or the other.
---
Catching up on the Twins roster moves: Randy Rosario was indeed shipped back to the minors (to Triple-A Rochester rather than Double A Chattanooga, from whence he was called up) to make room for Nik Turley, the Sunday starter, on the 25-man roster, To make room on the 40-man roster, Dan Rucinski was designated for assignment.
Turley wasn't great Sunday -- four innings, eight hits, four runs -- but he didn't walk anybody and struck out four and threw 46 strikes in his 73 pitches. I expect he'll get more starts; Phil Hughes hasn't thrown since going on the DL, so he's not close to returning, and Hector Santiago doesn't have a timeline to return either.
Jorge Polanco is to rejoin the team from his breavement leave today, so another move is coming.
I wrote a lot last week about Matt Belisle specifically and the thinness of the bullpen in general -- pretty much every post from Monday through Saturday dealt with the relief corps -- so it was probably fitting that Belisle had a central role in Sunday's late inning collapse.
Belisle's ERA for the season now stands at 8.59, with almost all the damage coming in four appearances. He always figured to be an ill fit for a high-leverage role, but I don't know who else Paul Molitor can use in those situations with the current bullpen without wrecking Tyler Duffey and Brandon Kintzler with overuse. There are just too many mop-up type arms on this staff.
---
The draft begins tonight. I devoted the Monday print column to my thoughts on who and what the the Twins should do with the first overall pick. With, of course, the disclaimer that the Twins know a lot more about this than I do.
I don't expect the Twins to follow my "recommendation," and I certainly won't criticize them when they don't.
One thing I didn't get to in a slightly longer than usual column: Sports Illustrated did nobody any favors by putting Hunter Greene on its cover a few weeks ago. The people who cover the scouting and prospect world for a living say the consensus is that Greene is a lesser prospect than a couple of high school righties from the previous two draft classes.
What makes Greene unique is that he's a viable first-round pick as both a pitcher and a shortstop. But I can't imagine that anybody is going to let him throw a few dozen high-velocity fastballs on Tuesday and play shortstop on Wednesday. He's going to do one or the other.
---
Catching up on the Twins roster moves: Randy Rosario was indeed shipped back to the minors (to Triple-A Rochester rather than Double A Chattanooga, from whence he was called up) to make room for Nik Turley, the Sunday starter, on the 25-man roster, To make room on the 40-man roster, Dan Rucinski was designated for assignment.
Turley wasn't great Sunday -- four innings, eight hits, four runs -- but he didn't walk anybody and struck out four and threw 46 strikes in his 73 pitches. I expect he'll get more starts; Phil Hughes hasn't thrown since going on the DL, so he's not close to returning, and Hector Santiago doesn't have a timeline to return either.
Jorge Polanco is to rejoin the team from his breavement leave today, so another move is coming.
Friday, June 9, 2017
Contemplating Matt Belisle
Tyler Duffey got seven outs on Wednesday, so he wasn't going to be used Thursday short of another 15-inning marathon. That meant that, when Paul Molitor needed a reliever in the seventh inning Thursday, the manager had to step out of his bullpen comfort zone, which is to go Duffey-Taylor Rogers-Brandon Kintzler.
Matt Belisle entered, faced three hitters, got three outs (and his 10th hold). Then came Rogers and Kintzler.
Belisle has surrendered 17 earned runs in 20.1 innings, a decidedly sour 7.52 ERA. Dick Bremer talked about how a "couple" of bad outings wrecked his ERA, probably for the season, and indeed it's been a handful of disasters -- five earned runs in two-thirds of an inning on April 26, six earned runs in one-third of an inning on May 7, three earned runs in one-third of an inning on May 29. That's 14 earned runs in 1.1 innings, which means he allowed three runs in the other 19 -- a 1.42 ERA.
Belisle, who turned 37 on June 6, is a nursery rhyme reliever. When he's good he's very very good, but when he's bad he is horrid.
He's pitched in back-to-back games four times this year, and twice has gone six days between outings. Duffey, in comparison, has gone back-to-back only twice and has only once gone even five days without work. Eighteen of Belisle's 24 outings have come in the eighth inning; Duffey has come in after the seventh only once, in the notorious 15-inning loss on May 28 that is an outlier in a lot of ways.
As I've noted before, Molitor seems to like using Duffey two innings at a time, which limits his availability. Belisle has gone more than one inning just once, in that 15-inning game on May 28. The most recent of his disaster outings came the next day, and I suspect that Molitor may reasonably discount that game in gauging his confidence in Belisle.
I have tended to view the Twins bullpen as three guys Molitor trusts and four (or five) he doesn't, but Belisle may be a fourth that Molitor trusts, just in a different way than he trusts Duffey. Duffey gets longer outings; Belisle gets later ones.
Matt Belisle entered, faced three hitters, got three outs (and his 10th hold). Then came Rogers and Kintzler.
Belisle has surrendered 17 earned runs in 20.1 innings, a decidedly sour 7.52 ERA. Dick Bremer talked about how a "couple" of bad outings wrecked his ERA, probably for the season, and indeed it's been a handful of disasters -- five earned runs in two-thirds of an inning on April 26, six earned runs in one-third of an inning on May 7, three earned runs in one-third of an inning on May 29. That's 14 earned runs in 1.1 innings, which means he allowed three runs in the other 19 -- a 1.42 ERA.
Belisle, who turned 37 on June 6, is a nursery rhyme reliever. When he's good he's very very good, but when he's bad he is horrid.
He's pitched in back-to-back games four times this year, and twice has gone six days between outings. Duffey, in comparison, has gone back-to-back only twice and has only once gone even five days without work. Eighteen of Belisle's 24 outings have come in the eighth inning; Duffey has come in after the seventh only once, in the notorious 15-inning loss on May 28 that is an outlier in a lot of ways.
As I've noted before, Molitor seems to like using Duffey two innings at a time, which limits his availability. Belisle has gone more than one inning just once, in that 15-inning game on May 28. The most recent of his disaster outings came the next day, and I suspect that Molitor may reasonably discount that game in gauging his confidence in Belisle.
I have tended to view the Twins bullpen as three guys Molitor trusts and four (or five) he doesn't, but Belisle may be a fourth that Molitor trusts, just in a different way than he trusts Duffey. Duffey gets longer outings; Belisle gets later ones.
Monday, June 5, 2017
The bullpen and facing Pujols
It worked, but I really didn't like very much about how Paul Molitor handled the Twins bullpen in the eighth inning Sunday.
Jose Berrios gave the Twins six innings and got a 3-2 lead to the seventh inning. Tyler Duffey entered and threw a 1-2-3 inning, turning the Angels lineup over.
Duffey has frequently worked two innings at a time, and I expected that to be the case again Sunday. But those two-inning outings are generally the sixth and seventh, not seventh and eighth, and the Angels had left-handed hitting Kole Calhoun leading off the eighth and another left-handed hitter, Luis Valbuena, scheduled third.
So Molitor brought in Taylor Rogers, his favored lefty reliever. I didn't care for this move, in part because Calhoun had already homered off Rogers (and off fellow lefty Adalberto Mejia) in the series, and in part because Duffey is just a better pitcher than Rogers.
But Molitor went for the platoon advantage. Rogers fell behind Calhoun and walked him. Then Rogers got Yunel Escobar to ground into a force out.
And here came Albert Pujols to pinch hit for Valbuena. And Molitor went to the pen for Matt Belisle.
Again, I didn't care for this move. The basic truth is, Pujols in 2017 should not scare an opposing manager. I know that's sacrilegious, but as I said in the Monday print column, Pujols at age 37 is a shadow of his greatness. And he is doing almost nothing against left-handers (slash line vs. southpaws .186/.255/.302).
Rogers hasn't allowed a homer to a righty this year. Belisle is averaging a home run allowed every six innings. If you looked for the matchup in the Twins bullpen most favorable to Pujols, Belisle is probably the pick. I wouldn't have had Rogers in the game to start with, but once in I wouldn't have pulled him for anybody by Brandon Kintzler.
So, naturally, Pujols hit the second pitch he saw on the ground to third for an easy double play (he has bad feet and can't run). Kintzler got the ninth and did his thing, and the Twins won.
As I view that inning, Molitor steadily deceased the competence of the pitcher and worked unfavorable matchups. He used four relievers in the game, and the two best relievers faced the weakest hitters, while the two weakest bullpenners faced the middle of the Angels lineup (with Mike Trout injured, that's not saying much, but Calhoun/Escobar/Valbuena/Pujols are still better than the other stiffs).
I didn't like any of it. But it worked.
Jose Berrios gave the Twins six innings and got a 3-2 lead to the seventh inning. Tyler Duffey entered and threw a 1-2-3 inning, turning the Angels lineup over.
Duffey has frequently worked two innings at a time, and I expected that to be the case again Sunday. But those two-inning outings are generally the sixth and seventh, not seventh and eighth, and the Angels had left-handed hitting Kole Calhoun leading off the eighth and another left-handed hitter, Luis Valbuena, scheduled third.
So Molitor brought in Taylor Rogers, his favored lefty reliever. I didn't care for this move, in part because Calhoun had already homered off Rogers (and off fellow lefty Adalberto Mejia) in the series, and in part because Duffey is just a better pitcher than Rogers.
But Molitor went for the platoon advantage. Rogers fell behind Calhoun and walked him. Then Rogers got Yunel Escobar to ground into a force out.
And here came Albert Pujols to pinch hit for Valbuena. And Molitor went to the pen for Matt Belisle.
Again, I didn't care for this move. The basic truth is, Pujols in 2017 should not scare an opposing manager. I know that's sacrilegious, but as I said in the Monday print column, Pujols at age 37 is a shadow of his greatness. And he is doing almost nothing against left-handers (slash line vs. southpaws .186/.255/.302).
Rogers hasn't allowed a homer to a righty this year. Belisle is averaging a home run allowed every six innings. If you looked for the matchup in the Twins bullpen most favorable to Pujols, Belisle is probably the pick. I wouldn't have had Rogers in the game to start with, but once in I wouldn't have pulled him for anybody by Brandon Kintzler.
So, naturally, Pujols hit the second pitch he saw on the ground to third for an easy double play (he has bad feet and can't run). Kintzler got the ninth and did his thing, and the Twins won.
As I view that inning, Molitor steadily deceased the competence of the pitcher and worked unfavorable matchups. He used four relievers in the game, and the two best relievers faced the weakest hitters, while the two weakest bullpenners faced the middle of the Angels lineup (with Mike Trout injured, that's not saying much, but Calhoun/Escobar/Valbuena/Pujols are still better than the other stiffs).
I didn't like any of it. But it worked.
Monday, February 6, 2017
Matt Belisle, new Twin
Matt Belisle, the pitcher signed late last week by the Twins, is a 36-year-old right-hander with a 13-season resume in the National League.
Most of his 4.20 career ERA has been compiled with the hitters havens of Cincinnati and Colorado as his home parks. The past two seasons -- pitching with lighter workloads for better teams and less difficult home parks -- he has put up ERAs of 2.67 (2015, St. Louis) and 1.76 (2016, Washington).
We can safely assume that Belisle isn't as good as that 2016 ERA suggests; if he were, he would not have been a free agent into February.
According to the Bill James Handbook, last season Belisle threw 56 percent fastballs, 33 percent sliders, 10 percent curves and 1 percent changeups. His fastball, the book says, averaged a bit under 91 mph. Not overpowering stuff (less than seven strikeouts per nine innings) but a strike thrower (just four unintentional walks in 46 innings). He's had a few injury issues the past two seasons.
The results are comparable to Brandon Kintzler, but he gets there by a different route. Kintzler throws a lot of fastballs, and Belisle is pretty heavy with breaking balls.
Dusty Baker didn't trust him. Belisle worked a lot of long relief and had the lowest leverage score on the Nationals staff, at least as Baseball Info Systems calculates it, and the Nationals left him off the playoff roster.
I expect Belisle to make the Opening Day roster for the Twins. I don't expect him to get an important bullpen job. He's a threat to Michael Tonkin's role on the staff, not to Ryan Pressly's.
And, to restate explicitly what was perhaps implied from Saturday's post and today's, I would not give up Byung Ho Park for him. It's possible, of course, that the Twins won't lose Park. But I would not have taken that chance.
Most of his 4.20 career ERA has been compiled with the hitters havens of Cincinnati and Colorado as his home parks. The past two seasons -- pitching with lighter workloads for better teams and less difficult home parks -- he has put up ERAs of 2.67 (2015, St. Louis) and 1.76 (2016, Washington).
We can safely assume that Belisle isn't as good as that 2016 ERA suggests; if he were, he would not have been a free agent into February.
According to the Bill James Handbook, last season Belisle threw 56 percent fastballs, 33 percent sliders, 10 percent curves and 1 percent changeups. His fastball, the book says, averaged a bit under 91 mph. Not overpowering stuff (less than seven strikeouts per nine innings) but a strike thrower (just four unintentional walks in 46 innings). He's had a few injury issues the past two seasons.
The results are comparable to Brandon Kintzler, but he gets there by a different route. Kintzler throws a lot of fastballs, and Belisle is pretty heavy with breaking balls.
Dusty Baker didn't trust him. Belisle worked a lot of long relief and had the lowest leverage score on the Nationals staff, at least as Baseball Info Systems calculates it, and the Nationals left him off the playoff roster.
I expect Belisle to make the Opening Day roster for the Twins. I don't expect him to get an important bullpen job. He's a threat to Michael Tonkin's role on the staff, not to Ryan Pressly's.
And, to restate explicitly what was perhaps implied from Saturday's post and today's, I would not give up Byung Ho Park for him. It's possible, of course, that the Twins won't lose Park. But I would not have taken that chance.
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