First base with and without Mauer

A year ago I figured that Joe Mauer would retire at the expiration of his contract after the 2018 season. His 2017 resurgence may change that equation, but he'll be 35, his daughters will be about ready to start school, he'll have collected more than $200 million in salary over the course of his career -- yeah, he might well decide to hang 'em up.

Then what for the Twins at first base? For that matter, who's behind Mauer for 2018?

Mauer played more than 72 percent of the team's innings at first base. Kennys Vargas picked the majority of the rest. But Vargas

• hasn't been very productive as a major league hitter
• is finally out of options
• isn't a lock to remain on the 40-man roster this winter and
• is seriously contemplating playing in Japan or Korea

Byungho Park might be seriously contemplating a return to his native Korea. He slugged a mere .415 in Triple A, and if Park ain't hitting for power, he ain't doing much. His walk to strikeout ratio with Rochester (28 bases on balls, 130 strikeouts) was ugly. He has one more year on his Twins contract, he's not on the 40-man roster and this front office has no investment in him.

In my opinion, it's likely that neither Vargas nor Park is with the Twins next year.

Many assume that Miguel Sano is destined for first base once that position is vacated (he played 65 inning there this year). My guess is that if he's too big to stay healthy at third base, he's not real likely to stay healthy at first either. The Twins have long ought to avoid a full-time DH, but that is, in my view, his more likely destination if third base doesn't work for him.

Sano is right-right -- bats right, throws right. John Manuel, for this week still the editor of Baseball America and after that a member of the Twins pro scouting department, had a recent piece about the scouting bias against right-right first basemen. (Byungho Park certainly isn't a data point to discredit the bias.)

The hitter in the system who most interests me as a post-Mauer first base candidate is also right-right: Brent Rooker, who raked at two levels in the farm system after the Twins plucked him with a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds.

He's right-right, he's probably not athletic enough for the outfield and as a college senior draft he was older than his competition at both Rookie and High A ball. These are significant drawbacks. He also hit 11 homers in 40 games in the Florida State League with Hammond Stadium as his home park, and that doesn't happen very often.

Presumably Rooker will advance to Double-A in the spring. Then we might get a better read on his future.

Pic of the Week

Byung Ho Park connects during batting practice.

What I like about this photo is that we can see the bat bend from the impact -- and a bit of distortion in the ball as it rebounds.

Park didn't make a lot of contact last year, but when he did, he had a rather elect exit velocity. And he seems, in the very early going of spring training, to have recovered nicely from his hand surgery. On Friday he singled and doubled -- the double perhaps a blown call from being a homer -- and on Saturday he homered and hit a sac fly.

Perhaps his 2016 struggles were more the result of injury than talent or acclimation. My personal belief is that a lot of teams will regret letting him slide through waivers a few weeks ago. We'll see.

Notes, quotes and comment

The Twins opened their exhibition season Friday night with a 3-1 loss to Tampa Bay. I won't put any weight on the results of a February game, but I will note that Michael Tonkin, who ought to be a borderline case to remain on the major league roster, struggled in his outing.

It was nice to hear Corey Provus on the play-by-play again. I can't say the same for Dan Gladden; his failure to command the details was in midseason form. Specifically, he called catching prospect Mitch Garver "Garvey" until Provus gently corrected him.

Someday I may find that kind of thing from Gladden endearing. I hope not.

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Ben Badler of Baseball America isn't in Arizona or Florida for spring training. He's in the Dominican watching a prospect showcase. And apparently the Twins are linked to a prominent prospect in Jelfrey Marte.



The Twins, of course, have the No. 1 overall pick in the coming June draft. It would obviously be helpful to supplement that prime position with one or more prominent international signings. As noted here earlier, the farm system is now a bit short in truly high-level prospects.

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Byung Ho Park had two hits Friday night. Both came off 93-mph fastballs. The Korean slugger struggled against velocity last year, so that is noteworthy, but not conclusive. Nothing in February should be considered conclusive.

Notes, quotes and comment

Byung Ho Park cleared waivers and was outrighted Thursday to Rochester. He'll be in training camp as a non-roster invite.

I had thought that somebody (Tampa Bay came to mind) might see a chance to pick up some right-handed power on a long-term but reasonable contract. It didn't happen, and Chris Carter illustrates why I was wrong.

Carter led the National League in homers last year, but the Brewers cut him loose anyway, and it took months before he found a new team: the Yankees, at $3.5 million for one year. (I'm not really sure why the Yankees wanted him, but they apparently figured the price was right.)

I suspect that, assuming Park is recovered from his hand/wrist issues, that he's at least as good a hitter as Carter, and I'm confident that Park is a better defensive first baseman. But Carter has established that he's a genuine major league power hitter -- flawed but genuine -- and Park has not. And Carter isn't going to get paid much more than Park in 2017.

There has been no market for right-handed first base-DH types.

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Right handed reliever Pat Light, who like Park had been designated for assignment by the Twins, was sold to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Light was awful in his 14 innings with the Twins last year (15 walks), and there are probably a dozen arms in the minor league system I'd rather see in the majors this year than Light.

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Bad news on the Glen Perkins front: He felt something in his shoulder and has pushed back his first scheduled bullpen session. I never really expected his return to be glitch-free. Patience. If he's going to make it back, it won't be immediate.

Park in DFA limbo

Byung Ho Park
hit 12 homers last
year but stuck out
80 times.

The Twins on Friday signed veteran relief pitcher Matt Belisle. They made room for him on the 40-man roster by designating Byung Ho Park for assignment.

I'll comment sometime next week on Belisle and his implications for the bullpen. Today I want to beef about the Park move.

Taking the public comments of Derek Falvey at face value, the Twins apparently expect Park to slide through waivers unclaimed, in which case they can outright Park to Rochester and bring him to spring training as a non-roster invitee. I suspect they think that will happen in part because there are right-handed sluggers of accomplishment (Mike Napoli, Chris Carter) still on the free-agent market and that the $8.75 million remaining on Park's contract will discourage teams from claiming him.

I see it differently. I see a genuine possibility that such teams as Tampa Bay will see Park as a source of cheap power (less than than $3 million a year) with signficant upside (he played at least part of 2016 with a hand injury and was transitioning to a new culture).

I have higher hopes for Park than I do for Kennys Vargas, who remains on the 40. Or for a couple of pitchers on the 40 (Pat Light, Buddy Boshers), or Danny Santana ... or even Belisle.

Well, at least I know niow that I'm not so ga-ga over the new front office regime that I accept their every move without skepticism.

Kim, Park and Korean stars

Just as Buck Showalter waited too long Tueday night to bring Zach Britton into the AL wild card game, I waited too long to comment on the odd year of Hyun Soo Kim.

Kim and the Orioles are done now, having lost the wild card game to the Toronto Blue Jays

Dedicated readers may recall that I made my biennial trip to spring training this year, and it came in early March. One of the games I saw at Hammond Stadium was against the Baltinore Orioles, and it brought out a TON of Korean media, because it involved two high-profile Koreans who had come over to the States: Byung Ho Park of the Twins and Kim of the O's.

Neither distinguished himself in that contest. Kim, to be blunt, didn't distinguish himself at all in March, and Showalter (and the Oriole front office) entered the season trying to get the outfielder to waive his contractual clause prohibiting his demotion.

Kim refused. And he saw little playing time early in the season. But by the end of May he was in the lineup pretty consistently, and he wound up slashing .302/.382/.420, albeit in less than 350 plate appearances. Showalter allowed Kim only 22 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, and he never got a hit against a southpaw.

It was an odd thing this spring, however. The Twins entered the regular season feeling comfortable with Park as the DH, and the Orioles entered it believing Kim couldn't play in the majors. Park wound up in the minors (and having his season end early for hand surgery), and Kim was a significant help to a playoff team.

Kim and Park are significantly different kinds of players; Park is a first baseman and power guy, Kim an on-base guy. Then there's Jung Ho Kang, the Pittsburgh infielder, roughly the same age as Park and Kim, whose season didn't get started until May because of the broken leg he sustained late in the 2015 season and who missed a good bit of time in August with another injury. Kang was a more productive hitter, albeit in less playing time, in 2016; he also was restricted to third base in the field.

The Twins have a significant number of players limited to first base and designated hitter: Joe Mauer, Park, Kennys Vargas, maybe Miguel Sano. I'm sure there are plenty of fans willing to discard Park this winter. I don't share that notion. I suspect Park's hand/wrist issues had more to do with his struggles than we know, and there's nothing so far in the careers of Kim and Kang that suggest that Korean stars are automatically overmatched in the American majors.

Park banged

Byung Ho Park turned
30 last month.

Byung Ho Park is to have hand surgery today. His 2016 season is over.

His numbers, majors and minors, weren't good. How much of his struggles can be laid at his hand and wrist issues and how much at his ability/approach is uncertain. It's difficult to hit with a bad hand or wrist. Park, through his translator, downplays the injury factor in the linked story, but that may simply be a "no excuses" approach.

Excuse or reason, the injury (injuries?) make Park's 2016 deceptively difficult to evaluate. When he made contact, the ball went a long way. But he didn't make contact very often.

Park is signed through 2019, maybe 2020 (team option). Joe Mauer is signed through 2018. That's two for first base and designated hitter. Miguel Sano may not be any more a third baseman than he was a right fielder, so he may be a third for that mix. Then there's Kennys Vargas, who slugged .576 in his limited major league time. Four.

Meanwhile, Trevor Plouffe has seemingly been locked into both first base and the cleanup slot. There may be a universe in which that is optimal, but I don't think I'm inhabiting it.

Sano, Park and Plouffe

Miguel Sano was reactivated Friday after missing the entire month of June with his pulled hamstring. Byung Ho Park was optioned out to make room for Sano.

No surprise there. Park's numbers were sinking fast. He hit .136 in June and had three times as many strikeouts as hits.

The truly noteworthy news from Sano's return was Paul Molitor's declaration that Sano was going to DH and play third base. Outfield? Only in an emergency, said the manager. This more or less echoed what Terry Ryan said almost two weeks ago in a radio interview.

And on Friday night, Sano played third and Trevor Plouffe was the designated hitter. Sano made a sparking bare-handed grab-and-throw on a nubber, and got lost on a popup that shortstop Eduardo Nunez grabbed.

It's fairly awkward. Plouffe is the more reliable defender at third, but as the song says, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Sano is going to be the third baseman sooner or later, and probably sooner. 

Rayns has promised trades this month, and I expect Plouffe will be one of those departing. I doubt there will be a significant return; the advantage for the Twins would be opening third base for Sano -- and reopening DH for somebody else. Like Park, assuming he figures something out in Triple A.

Notes, quotes and comment

I wrote it, and the Twins did it ...

The Monday print column suggested that the Twins move Byung Ho Park closer in the lineup to Joe Mauer. And on Monday and Tuesday night, Park hit cleanup, with just two batters separating the two.

Not that it's helped Park's RBI totals. For one thing, Mauer's in a slump. so he's not perched on base when Park comes up. (Mauer did homer Tuesday, and that's good, but it didn't add any RBI chances for Park). For another thing, Park continues to make outs when men on.. He had opportunities Monday and Tuesday to drive men home and failed.

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Jose Berrios was optioned out Tuesday morning, with Taylor Rogers recalled. Presumably that was done to get a fresh arm up for long relief duties, since Pat Dean went 5.1 innings on Monday. He wouldn't be available for a few days even if the Twins weren't planning on using him to start on Saturday against Toronto.

As I opined Tuesday, that doesn't seem like a particularly good matchup for Dean. I'm glad I'll be out of state on that one.

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Two more bad losses for the Twins in this Detroit series. There was a lot of angst (particularly from Bert Blyleven in the FSN broadcast) about Phil Hughes' early departure and the bullpen implosion, but it has to be noted: The Twins got two runs against Mike Pelfrey. Two. He entered the game with a 5.80 ERA, and the Twins hitters did almost nothing against him.

Twins' record: 10-28.

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Programming note: I'm headed to California for a few days to visit family. I may post at some point between today and next week, and I may not. I make no promises.

Notes, quotes and comment II

On Friday morning I noted Baseball America's Mock Draft 2.0. Later on Friday, BA issued Mock Draft 3.0.

The high school pitcher they had had the Twins taking at No. 14 in the previous mock in this one goes five picks earlier to the Chicago White Sox. This time they have the Twins taking right-hander Dakota Hudson of Mississippi State.

They also link the Twins to Zach Burdi, brother of Nick Burdi, a bullpen prospect of note currently on the disabled list with Class AA Chattanooga. Like his elder brother, Zach is the closer for the University of Louisville. The idea of two Burdis in the bushes is intriguing, but No. 14 overall is a bit high for a reliever. Of course, the Twins have drafted a lot of college relievers and moved them to starting.

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The Twins have trailed in all but one game this year. Incredible.

— Derek Wetmore (@DerekWetmore) May 14, 2016

Yeah, it is. Twins now 8-26.

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Byung Ho Park, whose Baseball Reference page is sponsored by yours truly, hit a pair of homers Friday in Cleveland. That's nine on the season for Park Bang, and if you want to play the on-pace game, he's on pace for roughly 45 homers. And about 75 RBIs, because eight of those homers have been solo shots.

Which, especially since this game was in Cleveland, reminds me of Brook Jacoby, third baseman for the 1987 Indians. He hit .300 that year with 32 homers and just 69 RBIs, Why so few ribbies? Because he spent the year hitting behind Joe Carter (.304 on-base percentage with 32 homers) and Cory Snyder (.272 OPB with 33 homers.) Only five of Jacoby's homers that year came with men on base.

Notes, quotes and comment

John Ryan Murphy
has had trouble
stopping pitches.

Between Miguel Sano's butchery in right field and John Ryan Murphy's inability to corral Ervin Santana's pitches, the Twins deserved to lose Tuesday's game, and they did.

Sano's problems were expected. Murphy's, less so. Santana was charged with two wild pitches Tuesday, Ryan O'Rourke one, and Murphy was charged with a passed ball. That's four pitches that got away in one game -- and seven in six games caught for Murphy, a truly awful rate.

I predicted earlier that Murphy would eventually take the starting job away from Kurt Suzuki. So far he has neither hit nor caught well enough to push the veteran.

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Trevor Plouffe was put on the disabled list Tuesday and Jorge Polanco called up. As with Max Kepler, it may not be ideal to have a top prospect sitting on the major league bench, but the Twins don't have an opening on the 40-man roster and aren't going to lop someone to make a temporary move.

As matters stand, Polanco's future with the Twins may be as a utility guy anyway. I don't believe he has the arm for the left side of the infield, and Brian Dozier is rather locked in at second base.

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Adventures in Baseball Reference sponsorships time: I picked up Byung Ho Park's page about five minutes after his homer into the center field bar on Saturday. Park Bang, baby!

Twins win, Twins win!

Miguel Sano and Eduardo Nunez had an ... incident ... in
short right field. Somehow, nobody was hurt.

It wasn't a particularly elegant W, but the Twins aren't complaining about it.

A few comments:

*Byung Ho Park doubled on Thursday. He doubled again Friday to bring home the winning run.
He's certainly had his struggles -- as has every hitter on the roster other than Joe Mauer and the the Eduardos, Escobar and Nunez -- but it's too early to write him off. Remember, this was always expected to involve a learning curve.

Perhaps as significant as the hits -- Park drew a walk as well Friday in a prolonged at-bat. (He also struck out; he's fanned at least once in each game he's played.)

Fangraphs posted this piece on Park's struggles  on Thursday.

* The Miguel Sano-Eduardo Nunez collision in right field looked worse than it was. Here again, the Sano project was always expected to involve a learning curve. In this case, though, there's a pretty good chance of somebody getting hurt if Sano is going to forego calling for balls in short right.

Yo ma tengo!

* Down in Rochester, Alex Meyer three six shutout innings without a walk. That's a good sign. Considering the shaky, if scoreless, outings by the back end of the Twins bullpen Friday and their previous struggles, any indication of possible help is welcome.

Park Bang No. 1

Byung Ho Park rounds the bases after
his eighth-inning go-ahead homer.

Byung Ho Park parked one Friday night for his first official major league home run, a 417-foot shot into a stiff wind in a very difficult power venue.

I'd like to say he got it off a quality pitcher, but I'm not sure that Joakim Soria  qualifies as such these days. The former All Star was great before the injury that cost him the 2012 season, and last year he had a deceptively good ERA and 24 saves, but after watching him in a couple of televised games I have my doubts that he'll long retain the eighth inning role in Kansas City.

It's an interesting slash line Park has built in three major league games. Interesting but insignificant, given that it's all of 12 plate appearances and nine official at-bats: .222/.417/.556. If he does that all year, it's a bargain for the Twins.

A momentary lineup shuffle

Paul Molitor made his first lineup changes of the season for the third game, and they were interesting both because of the potential matchup advantages and because of what happened in the previous game.

On Wednesday Miguel Sano had some adventures in right field; on Thursday Sano was the designated hitter and Danny Santana was in right. On Wednesday Byung Ho Park struck out three times in three official at-bats (he also walked); on Thursday he sat.

One of the questions regarding Park's transition to American baseball was how well he would handle velocity. Ubaldo Jiminez, the Baltimore starter on Thursday, has a notable fastball. So Molitor picked a matchup with Jiminez to get somebody else in the lineup.

And the Twins starter on Thursday, Phil Hughes, is a rather extreme flyball pitcher. So Santana, the third best defensive outfielder on the active roster (behind Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario) got the start ahead of Oswaldo Arcia.

These are hardly permanent changes. But it's likely that Sano's outfield breaks will come heavily on days that Hughes starts. And maybe Thursday suggests that Molitor is looking to "protect" Park more than he suggested late in spring training.

Two players from Korea

Hyun Soo Kim didn't get an extra-base hit in spring
training for the Orioles, and now his no-demotion contract
has put the O's in a dilemma.

Byung Ho Park, who figures to be the Twins' designated hitter, wasn't the only transferred Korean star testing himself in American baseball this spring on the Florida Gulf Coast. The Baltimore Orioles have outfielder Hyun Soo Kim, and he is at the center of an intriguing drama.

Paul Molitor, the Twins manager, has said he has seen little indication in spring training that Park is overmatched against MLB pitching, which is a legitimate concern for a KBO transfer. The Korean Baseball Organization, the top league in South Korea, is not a particularly rigorous level of pro ball, and big hitting numbers are commonplace.

Kim, on the other hand, struggled in exhibition play for the Orioles. He was hitless in his first 23 at-bats and slashed .182/.229/.182 in 44 plate appearances. He hasn't appeared in a game in a week, and the Orioles want to send him to the minors.

The problem is: They are contractually forbidden to do so. Kim's two-year, $7 million deal guarantees him a spot on the 25-man roster. Reports this week had the Orioles asking the 28-year-old outfielder to waive that clause, and Kim declining to accommodate them. The O's face a noon Sunday deadline to set their roster for their Monday opener against the Twins, and it appears they will either have to carry a player the manager thinks he can't use or eat the entire contract and posting fee and release Kim. Neither choice is welcome.

It's worth noting that Pittsburgh stuck with Jung Ho Kang last spring when the infielder hit .200/.280/.444 last spring and then hit .182/.208/.436 through April 28. The rest of the season he hit .293/.363/.474 and took on a regular role on the left side of the infield before suffering a leg fracture. Kang's experience had the Twins anticipating early struggles for Park in his transition to American ball. I don't know what the Orioles expected from Kim in March, but no power whatsoever probably wasn't it. Kang at least showed some pop in his transition period.

Park slashed .273/.293/491 in his first 55 exhibition at-bats. I've seen conflicting reports on his contract status, but considering that Kim and Kang had no-demotion clauses, I would expect that Park's does as well. It hasn't been a issue.

The Twins Korean project

Byung Ho Park leaves the plate on his grand slam Sunday
in the Tampa Bay Rays' spring training park in Port Charlotte.

I wrote the Monday print column, largely on Byung Ho Park and the uncertain expectations for the Korean slugger, on Saturday evening . I was in the air between Fort Myers and MSP when Park hit his first spring training homer on Sunday.

Sunday was also his first appearance in the field this spring. He had been the starting designated hitter in the Twins' first four games, and I didn't expect him to be in the lineup at all on Sunday. I can't recall the last guy who started five days in a row in Grapefruit League play, much less five straight at the start.

My seats for the Saturday game (against the Baltimore Orioles) were close to first base, and Park was one of three players working at first during pregame infield drills, the others being starter Joe Mauer and James Beresford, who handled first for the final four innings of the game. Tom Kelly was hovering and talking frequently with Park, at one point grabbing Park by his pants pocket to pull him back to get his attention. The interpreter wasn't there, so I don't know how much of what TK was telling Park was getting through.

At one point Park tried to dig a low throw out of the dirt. Kelly let out a yelp of disappointment when he saw the ball still on the ground. TK has been known to make certain infielders, and first basemen in particular, pet projects during spring training, and I wouldn't be surprised if Park (a) is deemed a little weak on scooping throws and (b) that makes him a TK project.

BA's Top 10 Twins prospects

The dead tree edition of Baseball America arrived in my mailbox Friday with Byron Buxton on the cover and the Top 10 prospects writeups for the AL Central teams inside. No link here because BA will roll the Twins stuff out online sometime next week.

The list:

1. Buxton (CF)
2. Jose Berrios (RHP)
3. Max Kepler (OF-1B)
4. Nick Gordon (SS)
5. Tyler Jay (LHP)
6. Jorge Polanco (SS-2B)
7. Byung Ho Park (1B)
8. Kohl Stewart (RHP)
9. Stephen Gonsalves (LHP)
10. Nick Burdi (RHP)

Buxton, who retained his rookie status for 2016 by two at-bats, was the obvious top choice; he's very likely to be BA's No. 1 overall prospect for the third straight winter when that list comes out in a few weeks. Nor are No. 2 or 3 -- Jose Berrios and Max Kepler -- startling selections. There are plenty of organizations for which either would be the headliner.

The list was compiled for BA by the Pioneer Press beat writer, Mike Berardino, A few comments on his rankings:

Gordon, who spent last year in low A, is above Polanco, who split 2015 between Double A and Triple A, this on the basis that Gordon is expected to stick at shortstop. I like both players, and I agree that Polanco is stretched as a shortstop. His problem right now, as for Berrios and Kepler, is the lack of obvious opportunity on the major league club.

Stewart, the No. 4 overall pick in 2013, the year the Cubs took Kris Bryant with the No. 3 pick, "slid" to No. 7 after seeing his strikeout rate decline in the Florida State League. Key sentence: "The Twins hope he'll start to miss more bats as he learns more about pitch sequencing."

Gonsalves, the Twins fourth-round pick in that draft, has essentially caught Stewart in the rankings. But Berardino figures Stewart will open 2016 in Double A while Gonsalves, who finished 2015 in high A Fort Myers, remains there for a few months.

Jay, college reliever, is likely to start in 2016, probably at Fort Myers. The Miracle figure to have some really interesting left-handed arms in the rotation this spring, with Gonsalves, Jay and Randy Rosario, who was added to the 40-man roster after a strong TJ-recovery season in Cedar Rapids. Of that trio, I assume Jay is both closest to the majors and has the highest ceiling but that Gonsalves is the most likely to be a major league starter.

Notes, quotes and comment

Byung Ho Park donned a Twins jersey -- No. 52
-- at a press conference Wednesday.

The Twins trotted out Byung Ho Park on Wednesday morning for his introductory press conference. All the standard things were said.

Terry Ryan repeated that Trevor Plouffe will be the third baseman next year and that Miguel Sano will be in the outfield. I continue to be skeptical.

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The Twins filled out their 40 man roster on Wednesday by picking up catcher John Hicks on waivers from Seattle. His record says he's a poor hitter, but his caught stealing rates are pretty impressive, and he apparently has options left, so he can be readily sent to the minors. More catching depth!

The Twins added a good-catch, no-hit receiver in Juan Centeno on a minor league deal earlier in the week, so they are stockpiling quite a few of these guys. I had presumed that Stuart Turner, who also fits that mold, was going to be the primary Triple A catcher this year; now I'm not so sure about that.

Or perhaps they are setting themselves up to move Kurt Suzuki, I don't expect that; I can't imagine that there's much to be gotten in a trade for Suzuki, But I can't dismiss that possibility now.

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Wednesday night was the deadline for tendering contracts to arbitration eligible players. The Twins had six such, and they retained all six. No real surprise, although I wouldn't have been too surprised had they non-tendered Eduardo Nunez or Casey Fien.

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Among players who were cut loose by teams Wednesday night were a pair of big-power first basemen with a lot of swing-and-miss to their games, Chris Carter (Houston) and Pedro Alvarez (Pittsburgh). They are, to some degree, what I expect Park to be. Presumably the Twins expect Park to hit for a better average than those two, but he's going to strike out a lot. Park's also a year older than Carter and Alvarez. As we gauge how the Korean fares in American ball next year, Carter and Alvarez might be interesting yardsticks.