Friday, December 14, 2012

The case against Kevin Correia

Kevin Correia has a 46-43 record over the past four
seasons with San Diego and Pittsburgh.
The Twins on Thursday made the signing of veteran starter Kevin Correia official.

They could just as well have stacked the $10 million in a big pile and lit a match to it.

I said this earlier: I will measure the Twins pitcher acquisitions by their likelihood of meeting or beating the Diamond Standard: 200 innings, sub-4.00 ERA. Vance Worley, acquired in the Ben Revere trade, is likely to at least meet that standard. The two prospects the Twins traded for, with their upside, they meet that standard.

Correia does not. He's no real improvement on the likes of Cole De Vries, Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters and Sam Deduno. He will, however, cost 10 times more than any of those guys will -- $5 million a year (average) as opposed to $500,000. And for two years rather than one.

If the Twins really need to spend $5 million on a starting pitcher who can't miss bats, they could just return Nick Blackburn to the rotation. Which they might, since they're committed to spending that money anyway.

There may be a team for which a pitcher such as Correia is a sensible signing -- a contending team with four set starters, with no reasonable prospect perched in the high minors. The Twins today are not that team. As I said in the Diamond Standard post, the Twins need front-of-the-rotation arms. They have plenty of back-of-the-rotation options.

I fear that Correia is a "appease Gardenhire" gesture from Terry Ryan. Gardy's job is perceived to be on the line in 2013, and Ryan's moves this month had not done much to support the 2013 club. Yes, he added Worley, but he created a gap in center field in the process. Yes, he added a couple of power-armed prospects, but neither Alex Meyer nor Trevor May will be of use in the majors in the coming season.

So Gardy now has an established veteran for his rotation. Goody goody gumdrops. Correia won't be there if and when the Twins get good again, and he's not a good bet to help Gardenhire stick around for that revival either.


  1. I got my weekly email from ACTA sports this morning and here is one of the scary nuggets gleaned from it:

    Cheap Wins
    Clay Buchholz Bos 5
    Nick Blackburn Min 4
    Kevin Correia Pit 4
    Wade Miley Ari 4
    Ricky Nolasco Mia 4
    Barry Zito SF 4

    'Nuff said.

  2. The case for Correia? His numbers last year were virtually the same as Scott Diamond's.