Sean Gilmartin for J.R. Graham revisited

Sean Gilmartin spent one season in the Twins system
before the Mets took in in the Rule 5 draft last December.

I wrote about this "Rule 5 trade" back in May, and after Sean Gilmartin's performance Monday for the Mets -- 3.1 shutout innings in the Amazin's comeback win -- it's worth revisiting.

The Twins acquired Gilmartin, a lefty the Braves had drafted in the first round in 2011, from Atlanta for Ryan Doumit after the 2013 season. Gilmartin opened 2014 in Double A for the Twins and went 7-3, 3.12 in 12 starts, 72 innings. They moved him up to Triple A halfway through the season, and he was 2-4, 4.28 in 14 starts, 73.2 innings there. Combined, he was 9-7, 3.71 at the two highest levels of the minor league ladder in 145.2 innings, with good walk (2.8) and strikeout (8.2) rates.

The Twins left him off the 40-man roster. They used that roster slot instead to take J.R. Graham from the Braves in the Rule 5 draft. The Mets took Gilmartin.

Rule 5 picks can't be optioned. They are use or lose, and most are returned to their original organization, Both Gilmartin and Graham have stuck, however, and with less than a week until the rosters expand, it is certain their drafting teams will retain their rights.

It's quite likely that the Twins will option Graham out next year. The righty has a big arm, but he also has a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings, and Paul Molitor has never been comfortable using him in winnable games. (The Twins have won just 12 of his 33 appearances, and most of those were blowouts.) He's given up at least one run in his last six appearances in which he's retired a batter.

Gilmartin, on the other hand, is 3-1, 2.34 after Monday's win. The Mets have used him a bit more often than the Twins have used Graham and for shorter stints -- he gets some LOOGY work, being left-handed -- and have generally avoided using him in close games, although he's gotten decisions in each of his last three outings. He doesn't have the velocity Graham does, but (again) he's left-handed. It's easier to imagine the Mets keeping him around next spring.

Here's a telling comparison: Gilmartin has been charged with 11 runs allowed all season. Graham has allowed 10 home runs.

The Twins may not regret drafting Graham and tying up a roster spot with him. That pick was about the future and about adding velocity, and he may eventually turn into a usable relief arm. But they ought to regret losing Gilmartin in the process.   

The Twins Rule 5 'trade'

Sean Gilmartin was a starter
in college and the minors, but he's
working out of the Mets bullpen this year.

The Twins are apparently committed to carrying Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham on their active roster all season. That intent may be tested if they remain in contention and if Graham can't be relied on in winnable games.

Those are two "ifs," which makes it a highly hypothetical question. For what it's worth, Graham has a 3.63 ERA in 17.1 innings, mostly compiled in mop-up outings. That's the fourth-best ERA in the current eight-man bullpen, but he's not nearly that high in the bullpen totem pole.

The Twins were able to pluck Graham out of the Atlanta system because they chose not to put Sean Gilmartin on their 40-man roster last fall. Gilmartin is a left-handed pitcher the Braves took in the first round in 2011, then traded to the Twins after the 2013 season for Ryan Doumit. He split 2014 between Double A and Triple A in the Twins system, compiling a combined mark of 9-7, 3.71 in 145.2 innings over 26 starts.

Leaving Gilmartin off the 40 gave the Twins an open spot to use in the Rule 5 draft to get Graham. And then the New York Mets took Gilmartin. It wasn't a formal trade, but that's what it amounted to, Graham for Gilmartin. (Or, if you like, Doumit for Gilmartin for Graham for the course of a year.)

J.R. Graham's
presence on the roster
is more about the
future than about
2015.

As Rule 5 picks, Graham and Gilmartin can't be optioned out. They are use or lose. And with both the Twins and Mets both providing at least the illusion of contention through Memorial Day, they'd like to get something useful out of them.

Gilmartin, a starter in the minors for both the Braves and Twins, is the second lefty in the Mets bullpen behind Alex Torres. He's made 17 appearances and worked 14.2 innings (3.07 ERA), which suggests a LOOGY role (Left-handed One Out GuY), but he has appeared just once in a save situation. It's a different usage pattern than for Graham, who has pitched in 13 games and thrown 17.1 innings. Graham leads the Twins in innings per relief appearance. But I don't believe Gilmartin is being given chances to lose games any more than Graham is.

Graham is also second to Glen Perkins on the Twins in "games finished," a stat that serves in bonus clauses as a stand-in for saves and as a rough measure historically of relief ace status. In his case, of course, it serves no such purpose. He's finishing one-sided games, not close ones.

Winter meetings, Day Four: The Twins act

Ervin Santana began his career with
the Angels. He was known as
Johan Santana while in the minors
but changed to Ervin to avoid
confusion with the then-Twins ace.

And on the fourth day, things happened.

The Twins had been bystanders for the first three days of the witner meetings, but on Thursday -- moving day as the annual confab broke up -- things fell into place.

The biggest news for the Twins was the reported agreement with pitcher Ervin Santana. Four years, $55 million guaranteed. The deal both supplants last winter's Rick Nolasco deal as the largest free-agent signing in Twins history and marks the first time the Twins have surrendered a draft pick to sign a free agent.

The Twins' first round pick in June's draft is protected, so they gave up their second-rounder.

Santana is a better pitcher than Nolasco, but he's not the kind of pitcher one wants to have starting Game One of a playoff series.

What I said yesterday stands. I believe the top priority should be opening a path to the rotation for Alex Meyer and (to a lesser extent) Trevor May. Meyer might be that elusive top-of-the-rotation arm, but the Twins seem determined to block his ascension with large barricades of cash.

Reshaping the rotation means moving some of the incumbents out. There has been no sign of that yet. Bu there's plenty of offseason ahead, and the Twins have to lop somebody from the 40 when the signing becomes official.

---

A secondary aspect to Thursday was the Rule 5 draft. The Twins plucked J.R. Graham, a short right-handed pitcher, from Atlanta. Graham was a high-velocity guy before suffering a shoulder injury; Baseball America once viewed him as Atlanta's second-best prospect, But last year he had a 5.55 ERA in Double A, mostly as a starter, and the Braves opted not to protect him.

The Twins see him as a potential bullpen piece. He either spends next season on the major league roster or is offered back to Atlanta. Graham fills the roster spot opened a few days ago when Chris Colabello was claimed on waivers by Toronto.

The Twins also lost left-handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin to the Mets. Gilmartin, a former first-round pick by the Braves, came to the Twins in the Ryan Doumit trade last December. He split 2014 between Double A and Triple A and didn't impress the Twins enough to get put on the 40-man roster.

The odds are always against Rule 5 draftees. Their original clubs didn't think highly enough of them to put them on the 40, and the new club has to commit to keeping them on the 25. That's a high standard. The Twins did make it work a couple years ago with Ryan Pressly, and of course Johan Santana is the gold standard of Rule 5 picks.

Filling the 40 (for a while)

Thursday was the deadline for teams to protect eligible players from the Rule 5 draft.

The Twins entered the day with four open spaces on the 40 and filled them all.

Three were obvious selections: Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer and Eddie Rosario. The fourth wasn't so obvious: left-handed pitcher Jason Wheeler.

I saw Wheeler pitch once, in 2012 in Beloit. He was, I am told, a different pitcher then. He's a big guy, but his fastball velocity was not impressive (upper 80s). The next year, in Fort Myers, he added a few mph, and now he reportedly works in the low 90s, occasionally touching 94.

He opened 2014 back at Fort Myers, got promoted to Double A after 13 starts, then moved up to Triple A for one end-of-the-year start. He led the minor leaguers in innings pitched. The 2.67 cumulative ERA is impressive; the 6.5 K/9 rate is not. The increased velocity has not translated into more strikeouts. He does throw strikes.

The Twins chose to protect Wheeler over Sean Gilmartin, another 24-year-old left-handed starter who split 2014 between Double A and Triple A. Gilmartin, a former first-round pick acquired from Atlanta for Ryan Doumit last winter, had a higher ERA and walk rate than Wheeler but a higher strikeout rate. I put more weight on the strikeout rate than on the ERA.

Also exposed to next month's Rule 5 draft: Jason Adam, a right-handed pitcher acquired from Kansas City in the Josh Willingham trade. Adam pitched in the just-completed Arizona Fall League and I think it's safe to say that the Twins weren't impressed enough to open a roster spot for him.

Levi Michael and Niko Goodrum, a pair of middle infielders taken with high draft picks (Michael in the first round, Goodrum in the second) were also left unprotected. I don't think either is likely to be lost.

The Twins don't often lose players in Rule 5. I won't be surprised, however, if Gilmartin gets picked and sticks.

Baseball America's 32nd Twins prospect

Sean Gilmartin as the ace of the
Florida State Seminoles in 2011,
when Atlanta made him the 28th
overall pick in the draft.

As I noted in Friday's post, buyers who order Baseball America's Prospect Handbook annual through their website get a supplement with a 31st prospect for each team. (In a tribute to Spinal Tap, BA says it "made our Top 30 reports one louder.")

In truth, the Twins have 32 prospects profiled in the Handbook. Sean Gilmartin, the former first-round draft pick the Twins got from Atlanta in the Ryan Doumit deal in December, is listed with the Braves, as their No. 10 prospect.

Discovering that over the weekend led me to wonder where Gilmartin would fit in the Twins' rankings. BA graded the lefthander as a 45 Medium. A 45 pitcher translates as a backend starter or a middle reliever; the book's definition portion cites Kevin Corriea and Matt Guerrier as examples of 45 pitchers. The Medium means he "still has some work to do to turn tools into major-league caliber skills."

BA essentially regards five points of ceiling as equivalent to one step of risk, so a 45 Medium equals a 50 High equals a 55 Extreme.

The Twins prospect list has 50 Highs from No. 8 though No. 11 (Trevor May, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler), followed by a 55 Extreme (Fernando Romero), another 50 High (Stephen Gonsalves), two 45 mediums (Josmil Pinto and Mike Tonkin), three more 50 Highs, then another 45 Medium, then a 50 High ... all told there are 13 prospects for the Twins in the same bracket as Gilmartin.

Given the BA list, I would slot Gilmartin at No. 16, after Tonkin but ahead of Adam Brett Walker. BA might differ on that.

Doumit traded to Atlanta

Ryan Doumit split his Minnesota playing time between
the outfield, catching and DH.

The Twins needed to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Mike Pelfrey.

They did so Wednesday by trading Ryan Doumit to Atlanta for minor league lefty Sean Gilmartin.

Gilmartin was a late-first round pick out of college by the Braves in 2011. He's reached Triple A already, but has been unimpressive there. Of particular interest to the Twins, besides his left-handedness and the possibility that he might still justify his draft status, is that he doesn't have to be on the 40.

I had surmised earlier in the offseason that Doumit wasn't a significant part of the Twins catching plans post-Mauer. Moving him clears some of the corner outfield/DH clutter. It also leaves the Twins with three catchers on the 40: Eric Fryer, Chris Herrmann and Josmil Pinto.

This may wind up being addition by subtraction; I assume the Braves had written off Gilmartin as a significant piece of their future and figured Doumit might be of immediate help. For the Twins, the roster spot may well be the point behind this transaction.

Feeling the draft

Sean Gilmartin is
projected by Baseball
America's Jim Callis
to be picked by the Twins
in tonight's first round.

The annual baseball draft begins today. Because the Twins won 94 games last season -- yes, they did, you can look it up -- and because there are some bonus first round picks awarded to teams that failed to sign first-round selections last summer, the Twins pick 30th in tonight's first round.

It's pretty much impossible to forecast the draft accurately that deep, but I'll give you a name anyway: Sean Gilmartin, left-handed pitcher, Florida State University. If he's available with the 30th pick, the Twins will take him.

The Twins in recent years have generally used their first-round pick(s) on college pitchers (Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers) or high-school outfielders (Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere). In the pitching department, they favor the arms with quality command and change ups already built in. Gilmartin fits that description. Plus he's left-handed, which is a definite plus. He's got a chance to last until 30 because he doesn't have overpowering velocity.

He would not be a "need" pick. The Twins farm system needs, more than anything, quality middle infielders. But the shortstops who deserve to be first-rounders will be long gone before the Twins pick, and amateur second baseman are risky (guys who wind up at second base in the majors are almost always shortstops in high school or college). And there's always room in any system for another quality arm.