Notes, quotes and comment

Brian Dozier's home run tear this week — four homers
in five games — gives him seven on the year, while
Justin Morneau has just three long balls.

When the Twins reactivated Trevor Plouffe, I predicted here that Brian Dozier would return to the leadoff spot.

Instead, Ron Gardenhire gave Clete Thomas several games in that lineup position. Thomas didn't remind anybody of Shannon Stewart, much less Rickey Henderson, but he was more productive there than anybody else the Twins had deployed.

And then the Twins saw three straight left-handed pitchers — Chris Sale on Wednesday, John Danks on Thursday, Scott Kazmir on Friday — and the right-handed hitting Dozier was back atop the lineup, with the left-handed hitting Thomas dropping down to the eighth slot.

This is justifiable strictly on the general platoon rule. We're talking here about two marginal hitters. That Dozier entered Friday's game hitting .293/.388/.463 against lefties this year is nice but immaterial; those split stats came in a mere 50 plate appearances against southpaws.

Dozier homered in each of those three games, and it will be interesting to see if Gardenhire keeps him in the leadoff slot as the Twins start to see some right-handed pitchers again. Gardenhire has never been particularly interested in seeking the platoon advantage with his hitters (pitchers are another matter). I'd advocate getting Thomas the extra at-bats against right-handed starters; Gardenhire's habitual preference for a set lineup suggests Dozier will lead off for a while.

For what it's worth — which isn't much — Thomas has been a more productive hitter against lefties than righties over his major league time. It's not enough at-bats to establish that he's an exception to the platoon rule.

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The Jose Valverde experiment ended Friday when the Detroit Tigers designated him for assignment. I never really understood what the big idea there was; Valverde went from unwanted to closer to unwanted again, with no intermediate stops.

Some 25 years ago, Jim Leyland won a string of divisional titles in Pittsburgh without a designated closer. Since then, he's become far more conventional in his bullpen use. Perhaps he's come to equate the October failings of those good Pirate teams — they never reached the World Series — with the lack of a closer.

Anyway, Leyland indicated Thursday that Joaquin Benoit was his closer, kinda sorta:

"I'm not naming anybody closer. I'm just saying if Benoit was available right now, I would try to close with him." 

I'm not sure why Leyland's hesitant to anoint Benoit, but it's worth noting that Benoit (who's 35 years old, same age as Valverde, which just astounds me) has pitched on back-to-back days just four times this year and has yet to work three days running. The reference in the above quote to the pitcher's availability may be significant.

Another possibility is that the manager is hoping for a trade for a established closer. Or even former Twin Jesse Crain, a notion floated this week by the Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers. Rogers generates a lot of  trade ideas that don't go anywhere, but trading Crain makes a certain amount of sense for the White Sox; this is the last year of his contract with the Sox, and the Sox certainly aren't going anywhere with him.

Where to hit Joe Mauer

Chris Herrmann got his first
major-league action of the season
Wednesday and picked up an
RBI single.

Joe Mauer is the Twins' best No. 3 hitter. He's their best No. 2 hitter. And, really, he'd be their best leadoff man, best cleanup hitter, best No. 9 hitter. He's their best hitter, period.

If the Twins had nine Joe Mauers in the lineup, they'd score (using his career stats) a bit more than seven runs a game (eight runs with 2013 stats). They only have one Mauer, however, and so they're scoring 4.28 runs a game, 11th in the American League.

Until this week, Mauer had been hitting second all season. Ron Gardenhire moved him back to his accustomed third spot on Monday. On Wednesday night, the Twins led off with Eduardo Escobar (career OBP .275, 2013 OBP .271) and followed with Brian Dozier (career OBP .266, 2013 OBP .255).

It worked, more or less; the two outmakers opened the game with base hits and scored first inning runs, and the Twins won 4-1.

But over the long run, giving guys like that extra at-bats is suicidal.

There's a growing sabermetric consensus that one's best hitter should hit second. I suspect the improvement is only marginal. I would prefer that Mauer hit second, but I don't think there's a huge difference between hitting him second or third.

There is, however, a larger difference between hitting somebody like Dozier second or sixth (or preferably lower). Each lineup slot, over the course of the season, represents a difference of a couple dozen plate appearances. Hitting Dozier second all year as opposed to sixth means giving him about 100 more trips to the plate — and at a .255 OBP, that means he's making about 75 more outs.

The specific problem with the lineup Wednesday wasn't so much the batting order as the personnel. The Twins had three established major league hitters (Mauer, Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit) in the lineup (and two of the three have not performed to their usual levels this year). The other six have career OPS (on-base plus slugging) of .570 (Escobar); .582 (Dozier); .722 (Chris Parmelee); .232 (Chris Herrmann); .563 (Aaron Hicks); and .619 (Pedro Florimon). Parmelee's figure is a touch below league average; the rest, albeit in limited at-bats, are far below average.

It doesn't really matter if Mauer-Willingham-Doumit hit 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 when they're surrounded with that level of hitters.

Benchmarks for 2013: Lineup construction

Joe Mauer should be bumped up to the second spot
in the Twins batting order.

The Twins at this point have three vacant defensive positions: Center field, second base and shortstop. They also have significant vacancies at the top of the batting order, having traded Denard Span and Ben Revere.

Figure that these six men are, barring injury, essentially set for regular play: Joe Mauer (catcher); Justin Morneau (first base), Trevor Plouffe (third base), Josh Willingham (left field), Chris Parmelee (right field) and Ryan Doumit (designated hitter). Other than Mauer, who led the American League in on-base percentage last year, those guys are better at finishing rallies than starting them. Their offense is more slugging percentage than OBP. And they're all pretty slow. There's not a prototype leadoff hitter in the pack.

And, as we've seen in the center field and middle infield segments of this series, the candidates for those open slots aren't necessarily suited to be table-setters.

Ron Gardenhire's batting orders have been frequently criticized. I don't often join in that criticism because I believe that the batting order is less important than having the right nine guys in the order. The inning with the most runs scored is the first inning, which makes sense because that's how lineups are generally built; the inning with the least is the second inning, because traditional lineups put weaker hitters at the end of the lineup. And if you average the first and second innings, it comes out even with the other innings.

But ... if two of the winners of the open positions wind up hitting first and second full-time with well-below offense, that's a problem. Each lineup slot gets about 20 more plate appearances, over the course of the season, than the next one; having a guy who should be hitting eight or ninth hitting first or second is giving up a lot of outs.

And if the winners of the three open slots are Darin Mastroianni, Brian Dozier and Pedro Florimon -- hardly unlikely -- that's three guys who probably ought to be hitting eighth and ninth. They can't all hit there.

My take:

There's good reason to hit Mauer third, but there are other hitters capable of filling that role. There's nobody close to Mauer in terms of handling a table-setter role. He's not particularly fast, but that's a secondary concern compared to his .400 on-base percentage.

So put Mauer in the two-hole. The shortstop, presumably either Florimon or Eduardo Escobar, should hit ninth. That leaves the leadoff slot and the eighth spot for the center fielder and second base. This isn't optimal, but it's better than putting two below-average hitters in the slots that get the most at-bats.

The endgame

Eventually, Aaron Hicks is supposed not only take over center field but the leadoff spot. Even if he wins the center field job this spring, however, it will probably behoove the Twins to ease him into a key offensive role. Brian Dozier theoretically might be able to fill a top-of-the-lineup slot, but he didn't hit well enough as a rookie to count on him doing so. Jamey Carroll is acceptable, but he's not a multi-year solution. Nobody else in the field of contenders for center field, shortstop or second base profiles as leadoff or No. 2 hitter.

A realistic goal for Gardenhire this year is developing one top-of-the-order guy. Two would be ideal — two of them would let Mauer, the team's best hitter, hit third — but the raw materials may not be there.

A "spring training lineup"

Ron Gardenhire was visibly irritated after Wednesday's win against Cleveland when a reporter used the phrase "spring training lineup."

Gardy bristled as he defended the players he started — in a day game after a late-night clinching party — as "major league players."

T.C., at least, hit the field Wednesday,

Managers playing September lineups laden with calls-ups and bench guys seldom appreciate the spring training reference, because it implies a lack of seriousness, suggests that the paying customers are getting fleeced. Certainly Twins fans could have no complaints about what they saw Wednesday, even if what they saw didn't include regulars Michael Cuddyer, Jim Thome, Delmon Young, J.J. Hardy or Orlando Hudson, not to mention ailing superstars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The Twins played well, and they won.

But in point of fact, it was the kind of lineup one might see in March — and not at their home grounds in Fort Myers, either.

The spring training rule (not always followed by bus-tripping visitors) is that each team is supposed to start at least three regulars.

The Twins on Wednesday started three regulars (Denard Span, Jason Kubel and Danny Valencia) plus Nick Blackburn. They started four players who opened the season in Triple A Rochester (Valencia, Jose Morales, Matt Tolbert and Jason Repko) and a fifth who spent the minor league season in Double A (Ben Revere). They had not one but two back-up catchers in the lineup, not one but two utility infielders in the lineup.

Gardenhire hardly started his A Team. He doesn't need to apologize for that, either.

Mauer links and lineup chatter

Monday's print column explores Joe Mauer's surprising home run surge. I mentioned an Aaron Gleeman piece on the same topic, posted Friday on NBC Sports' Circling the Bases blog. Here it is.  

The Pioneer Press has a piece on Mauer and Justin Morneau — personality driven, not analytical — that's entertaining. 

On to the lineup question: Ron Gardenhire on Thursday moved Mauer and Morneau up a slot each in the batting order. The Twins scored 20 runs. They stayed in the 2 and 3 holes on Friday; the Twins scored 11 runs. Status quo remained on Saturday; they scored six runs.

It's hard to argue with 37 runs in three games, and I assume the lineup for tonight's ESPN game will have Mauer hitting second and Morneau third again. But Gardy still prefers Mauer three and Morneau four. He just doesn't have anybody who gets on base to put between Denard Span and Mauer.

Here's the thing — to the limited extent that lineup positioning matters, Gardenhire's better off with Mauer two and Morneau three. Why? Because they'll get more at-bats over the course of the season hitting second and third than third and fourth.

The three guys in front of Mauer in Gardenhire's preferred lineup will generally be Span and two middle infielders (Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, Brendan Harris or Alexi Casilla, who I still expect will eventually wind up with the second base job). The three guys in front of Mauer in the current lineup are ... Span and two middle infielders. It's going to be the same people in front of the M&M Boys no matter what.

So give the good hitters more at-bats and take them away from Matt Tolbert. Please.