Monday, August 23, 2010

More on pitches per out


Continuing a topic from the Monday print column:

I drew up three groups of pitchers, using the season stats entering Friday's play:

1) The six pitchers who have started the most games for the Twins (no innings requirements)

2) The ten pitchers with the highest strikeout/nine innings rate (120 innings minimum)

3) The five pitchers with the lowest K/9 rate (120 innings minimum).

Francisco Liriano (pictured) is in both (1) and (2), so we've got 20 pitchers total.

Twins group (ordered by K/9 rate)

Liriano: 9.81 K/9, 454 outs, 2,387 pitches, 5.25 pitches per out
Scott Baker: 7.53, 432, 2,236, 5.18
Kevin Slowey: 6.57, 403, 2,181, 5.41
Carl Pavano: 5.71, 522, 2,451, 4.70
Brian Duensing: 5.12, 253, 1,157, 4.57
Nick Blackburn: 3.03, 312, 1,585, 5.08


High strikeout group (excluding Liriano, who would be third)

Brandon Morrow: 10.48 K/9, 394 outs, 2,250 pitches, 5.71 pitches per out
Jered Weaver: 9.96, 504, 2,871, 5.70
Yovani Gallardo: 9.78, 428, 2473, 5.78
Tim Lincecum: 9.55, 478, 2,643, 5.53
Jonathan Sanchez: 9.35, 436, 2,482, 5.69
Clayton Kershaw: 9.32, 472, 2,645, 5.60
Cole Hamels: 9.17, 477, 2,585, 5.42
Jon Lester: 9.17, 489, 2,612, 5.34
Mat Latos: 9.08, 428, 2,242, 5.23


Low strikeout

Livan Hernandez: 4.59 K/9, 494 outs, 2,485 pitches, 5.03 pitches per out
Bronson Arroyo: 4.57, 502, 2,513, 5.01
Kyle Kendrick: 4.51, 413, 2,152, 5.21
Paul Maholm: 4.37, 439, 2,420, 5.51
Mark Buehrle: 3.82, 481, 2,445, 5.08

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Any great insights here?

1) The Twins pitchers, with the exception of Slowey, tend to put hitters away quickly. Duensing (in very limited innings) and Pavano (who got the most outs of these 20 pitchers) are the two most efficient in the pools. What separates Slowey from the others? My guess is (a) nibbling when he's ahead in the count and (b) foul balls.

2) Three of the five low-strikeout starters have at least 160 innings pitched; only two of the 10 high-strikeout pitchers are there.

3) The high-strikeout group is young; I don't think there's a 30-year-old listed. There are a bunch of guys in this group who could win a Cy Young in a given year and nobody would be too surprised. And there are three guys in their first full season in a rotation.

4) Doing just five of the low-strikeout guys (and setting the innings limit at roughly the ERA qualifying point) probably makes that group look better. Most pitchers with strikeout rates that low lose their jobs in a hurry. These guys have done well enough to keep their jobs, and none of the five is really in jeopardy. They are the definition of innings-eaters.

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