Cron vs. Austin

A debate of sorts broke out Sunday night on LaVelle Neal's Twitter feed, with respondents demanding that the beat writer justify the Twins' intent to have C.J. Cron at first base over Tyler Austin.

Part of this is small sample size theater. Austin, in 41 exhibition plate appearances, has hit three homes and hit. 390. (He also has zero walks). Cron hasn't been bad -- two homers and .367 in 34 PA -- but the Twitter yellers say Austin is outperforming Cron. There's no room on the bench for a 1B-only bat, and Austin is out of options.

It feels weird to say this, as my immediate reaction to Cron's addition was What does he give the Twins that Austin doesn't? But the reality is, spring training has not given the Twins a legitimate reason to change plans at first base.

Point one: Seventy-five plate appearances don't mean a while lot at any time. Seventy-five plate appearances are particularly shy of meaningful in March.

Point two: Even if they are indicative of current level of ability, Cron has the higher OPS -- on-base plus slugging -- against a slightly higher level of competition as Baseball Reference measures it.

Point three: For whatever reason, the Twins decided during the offseason that they are better off with Cron. Maybe it's because new manager Rocco Baldelli knows Cron from last year with the Rays. Maybe it's because Austin has a history of nagging injuries. Maybe it's because they see Cron as having a higher floor. Whatever the rationale, they made a measured, non-impulsive decision during the winter to add Cron. They aren't going to change course on a March whim.

The Twins have, for now, an embarrassment of riches in right-handed first base-only sluggers. That suggests a trade, but the market on such players has not been generous. Unless there's a team that really wants C.J. Cron, he's going to be the first baseman in Minnesota, at least when Marwin Gonzalez is playing some other position.

Where they stand: First base

Presumptive regular: C.J. Cron

Others on the 40: Tyler Austin, possibly Miguel Sano

Nonroster notables: Brent Rooker

I've put off this position for a week or so in large part because I don't really have anything new to say. Of the three position-player additions for the Twins this offseason, Cron is the one I have the most trouble with. A right-handed first baseman who hits dingers but is chronically weak in on-base percentage and spent most of 2017 as a DH ... he's pretty much the opposite of Joe Mauer.

I'm not sure he gives the Twins anything they couldn't get from Austin. Or the departed Byung-ho Park, for that matter. On the other hand, Park and Austin had have frequent injuries. Cron has had only one 500-plate appearance season as a full-fledged regular, but that's for lack of opportunity, not injuries.

Right-right first basemen don't often get repeated opportunities; some never get an opportunity. Cron got one and took advantage of it.

He's on a one-year deal here, and I think it likely that the 2020 first baseman will be Brent Rooker, who figures to open 2019 in Triple A Rochester. He didn't dominate Double A statistically in 2018 as he did High A in his limited time after being drafted in 2017, but I think he's the future at first base for the Twins. Cron is just filling the gap.

Goodbye, Grossman

The Twins on Friday -- the deadline to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players -- signed recent waiver-wire addition C.J. Cron to a one-year deal ($4.8 million)and cut loose Robbie Grossman.

Cron and Grossman are both bat-first guys, but their hitting success comes in different shapes. Cron has the power; Grossman is an on-base percentage guy. I don't dismiss 30 home runs, but Grossman is the better hitter.

But there's a catch, or lack of them. Grossman is a poor defensive outfielder, and the Twins have four outfielders ahead of him (Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Jake Cave). Cron isn't as good as Joe Mauer at first base, but he doesn't damage the pitching staff when he's in the field -- and with Mauer retired, the Twins don't have an incumbent at the position. Cron fits the roster better than Grossman does.

Of course, there is arguably room for both in the Minnesota lineup -- Cron at first base, Grossman at designated hitter. That was a road the organization choose not to take. Had Cron not been available, perhaps the Twins would have kept Grossman. More likely, his time in Minnesota was expired anyway.

On C.J. Cron

The Twins picked up C.J. Cron on waivers Monday. I am not impressed.

There is an obvious attraction to a player who hits 30 homers, which is what Cron did last season for Tampa Bay. Thirty bombs is more than anybody on the Twins hit in 2018. Cron had 59 extra-base hits; nobody on the 2018 Twins did that either. Power is an important tool, and Cron has it.

The problem is, that's pretty much all Cron has going for him. He is one-dimensional. He's a right-handed hitter who is limited afield to first base and winds up getting his at-bats as a designated hitter. He sports atrocious walk-to-strikeout rates. He's not (yet) on the wrong side of 30 (turns 29 in January), but he's not young enough to carry any sense of projection.

This is his prime time. He hit 30 homers last year, and the Rays responded by casting him aside. We can do better. 

There's something else that designating Cron for assignment and then waiving him tells us: There was no trade market. None of the other 29 teams (including the Twins)  was willing to give the Rays anything beyond the $50,000 waiver fee for him.

Something Alex Cora, the Red Sox manager, said during the World Series has been resonating with me for a few weeks:

"We live in an era that hitting .210 with 30 homers and 70 RBI is acceptable and it's a good season. We don't believe that."

Cron hit better than that -- .253 with 30 homers and 74 RBIs -- but he's the kind of player Cora was talking about.

Of course, adding Cron doesn't come in a vacuum. Joe Mauer -- pretty much Cron's opposite as a hitter -- isn't going to be the Twins first baseman next season. Kennys Vargas is gone to Japan.

First base in Minnesota is available. Cron may be the front-runner, but there isn't much difference  between him and Tyler Austin other than that Cron is about 30 months older and has more than five times the major league at-bats.

Invest 500 at-bats in Austin, and he'll hit 30 homers too. But I won't guarantee that he'll do enough other things to make him a better player than Cron.

The Rays figure they have better ways to use the roster spot and $5 million (a reasonable projection of the arbitration-eligible Cron's salary for 2018). I would like to think the Twins do as well.