Getting outs

A few observations, and maybe some conclusions, about pitching ....

1. Michael Pineda can be really tough to watch. That was certainly the case Tuesday night when he gave up three runs in the first inning while working at a glacial pace. Given the time zone difference on a Tuesday night, I would imagine that there are a lot of the Twins fans surprised this morning to find the Twins won.

1A. Pineda's final line -- three runs allowed in six innings -- supports my Monday print column conclusion earlier this month: He may not be a Cy Young contender, but there are a lot of teams that would love to have a fifth starter like him.

2. Were either Bert Blyleven or Jack Morris doing this road trip on FSN, they would be doing conniption fits. On Monday Jake Odorizzi threw five shutout innings and was relieved without facing a batter in the sixth; he told reporters that he encouraged manager Rocco Baldelli to pull him. The Twins bullpen allowed one run in four innings and the Twins won 3-1, although Odorizzi didn't get credit for the win.

On Tuesday the Angels' Trevor Cahill threw five scoreless innings, then gave up a leadoff double to Max Kepler.  Brad Ausmus pulled him, and the Twins quickly went double-homer to tie the game off his successor.

We've all heard Blyleven and Morris say the manager would have had to fight them to pull them from a shutout. But Odorizzi and Cahill are veteran starters with well-established histories as five-and-fly gues. They aren't 200-inning machines, as Blyleven and Morris were decades ago. 

Baldelli and Ausmus handled them properly. The difference is that Baldelli's bullpen got the job done on Monday (and Tuesday); Ausmus' did not.

3. Part of the bullpen meltdown for the Angels was Luke Bard. Bard was drafted and signed by the Twins out the the same draft in which they landed Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios; he was prominent in a group of college closers the Twins drafted that year (2012), many of whom the Twins sought to make starters.

Most of them washed out, although the Twins still have Tyler Duffey. Bard spent a lot of his time in the Twins system on the shelf, and even when healthy they showed little real interest in pushing him to the majors. The Angels took him in the Rule 5 draft last year and carried him for part of the season before returning him to the Twins; then they signed him as a minor league free agent.

He was hardly great Tuesday night -- four runs, all earned, in one inning -- and was charged with the loss. The Angels' defense did him no favors, but that was only part of the problem.

I would like him to make the Twins regret not giving him a major league opportunity. I doubt he will.

Notes from the weekend

Nothing against Matt Magill, the most recent fringe guy to land, probably only temporarily, on the Twins roster, but when he came in to pitch Sunday I decided it was permission to turn off the game and take a nap.

Which meant I missed probably the highlight of the day for the Twins, since Magill got seven outs without allowing a run.

And -- surprise! -- he gets to stay on the roster. Tyler Duffey got sent down after the game, with another move to come today.

Agai, this is tinkering with the unimportant parts of the active roster. Duffey and Magill combined to allow one run in 5.1 innings, but Jose Berrios and Taylor Rogers had already allowed seven in 3.2.

---

Luke Bard cleared Rule 5 waivers and was returned to the Minnesota Twins, which, as I figure things, means the Twins didn't lose anything through the Tyle Kinley Experiment. Indeed, as Bard is not on the 40-man roster, the Twins emerge slightly better off than had they protected Bard from the draft last November.

And if either Nick Burdi, on the disabled list with the Pittsburgh Pirates, is returned (probably not on the table until 2019) or the Miami Marlins pass on taking Kinley back (doubtful), all the better.

Notes from the weekend

Ugly series all told against Tampa Bay for the Twins. They couldn't deal with the former Twins in the Rays outfield (Denard Span and Carlos Gomez) and the bullpen stuck so bad one assumes the trainer had to check the old guys for signs of decomposion.

Span went 5-for-14 with three runs and six RBIs. Gomez scored the winning run on Friday and hit a monster walk-off homer off the previously impregnable Addison Reed on Sunday.

Go-Go, by the way, is hitting third for Tampa Bay despite a .160 batting average. It's still early.

---

Gabriel Moya, lefty reliever I really like even through his major league numbers to date aren't good, was optioned out Sunday to make room for Phil Hughes. Dick Bremer was claiming that Hughes showed improved velocity on his rehab assignment, but we certainly didn't see that in Sunday's start.

For the first time, I now consider it a genuine possibility that the Twins will give up on Hughes relatively soon. They're on the hook for not only this season but next on his contract, so that's a genuine consideration. But when Ervin Santana returns -- and my guess is end of May at the earliest for that -- there's no room for him in the rotation. And there may not be room for him in the bullpen either.

Gotta get outs. And Hughes needs to start getting them soon.

---

Luke Bard, a hard-throwing relief prospect the Twins lost to the Angels in the Rule 5 draft, has now been designated for assignment. If he slips through waivers, I would assume the Twins will happily reclaim him.

Bard is said to have the highest spin rate on his four-seam fastball in the majors this year. That's nice. It obviously wasn't enough to keep him on the Angels roster.

If the Twins get him back, it may make it a bit easier for Minnesota to abandon the Tyler Kinley experiment. Kinley has pitched just three innings so far, and those innings haven't made Paul Molitor eager to increase his role. It's difficult for a contender to carry a Rule 5 guy.

Rule 5 update

Tyler Kinley has yet to appear in a game for the Twins; Paul Molitor is, presumably, looking for a really low-leverage situation for his debut, and the Twins haven't had that yet except in the Jose Berrios complete game.

Meanwhile, Luke Bard, one of two pitchers claimed off the Twins in Rule 5, has gotten into three games for the Angels. He's pitched four innings and allowed one run on two hits and five strikeouts, all of which is good; he's also walked four, which is bad.

Luke Bard's game-ending strikeout of Jed Lowrie came on a 2,844 rpm elevated 4-seamer. That's what high-spin fastballs do -- get whiffs up in the zone -- and Bard's could be the highest we've seen since Statcast started tracking. pic.twitter.com/cnNxTOcttb

— David Adler (@_dadler) March 31, 2018

The other Rule 5 loss, Nick Burdi, is on the 60-day DL with the Pirates. His Rule 5 clock really doesn't become a factor until 2019; he had Tommy John surgery last season and isn't likely to pitch this year.

Bard versus Kinley is an intriguing comp. The Twins COULD have put Bard on the 40 last winter; they wouldn't have gotten Kinley in that case, but Bard would have options and could be sent to the minors. Kinley, as a Rule 5 guy, can't. There would be roster flexibility.

And the Twins will need a fifth starter next week, which will require a roster move. It's more likely that Gabriel Moya will be the demotee than that Kinley will be offered back to the Miami Marlins, but ... the reality of Rule 5 for contending teams is that it's really hard to devote a roster spot to that kind of player for the full season. Even if the Twins think Kinley is better than Bard, the flexibility matters. I'd rather have Bard.

And the payoff for keeping a Rule 5 guy is often slim. The Cincinnati Reds -- not a contender, of course -- two winters ago took catcher Stuart Turner out of the Twins system and kept him. He hit .134 in 82 at-bats. Last week,  his Rule 5 requirements satisified, the Reds waived him. He cleared and was outrighted to Triple A. So the Reds no longer think he's worth a 40-man roster spot, one year after carrying him on the active roster all season.

Rodney and Rule Five

The Twins had a busy Thursday with bullpen moves:

• They lost a pair of power arms from their Double A bullpen in the Rule 5 draft;
• They picked up a power arm from a Double A bullpen in the Rule 5 draft and
• They reached a reported contract agreement with veteran closer Fernando Rodney.

Let's start with the latter, since that is certain to have an effect on the 2018 team.

Most of us know Rodney to some degree. He spent seven years with Detroit to open his career; he was the losing pitcher in the famous Game 163 of 2009. He'll turn 41 during spring training, he's third in career saves among active pitchers (behind Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street), he's made three All-Star teams and the Twins will be his ninth major league team.

This well-crafted opinion was issued early Thursday, after news that Brandon Kintzler had reached a two-year deal with the Washington Nationals:

If the #MNTwins were/are more interested in Fernando Rodney than Brandon Kintzler, they're doing it wrong.

— Edward Thoma (@bboutsider) December 14, 2017

They are quite different in pitching styles and repertiores. Rodney throws 60 percent fastballs and alomost 40 percent changeups; Kintzler throws more than 80 percent fastballs. Kintzler's strikeout rate and walk rates are both near the bottom of the league; Rodney's strikeout and walk rates are both about twice Kintzler's. Rodney threw strikes on 61 percent of his pitches (21 percent swinging strikes); Kintzler, 64 percent and 9 percent. (Stats from the Bill James Handbook.)

I'd rather have Kintzler pounding the strike zone than Rodney fighting his command. And since Paul Molitor's stated rationale for going with Kintzler and then Matt Belisle as his closers was that he could rely on them throwing strikes, I suspect Molitor might agree.

Kintzler got two years, $10 million from the Nats; Rodney one year at $4.5 to $6 million depending on incentives. (Both deals are pending physicals; both reportedly include an option year.)

It's possible the Twins preferred Kintzler too, but that Kintzler preferred the Nats. Or that the Twins truly see the addition of a veteran closer as a placeholder and want/expect to transition to a younger pitcher in that role as the season progresses and thus didn't want to do multiple guaranteed years. 

A lot of Twins fans will be irritated by his habit of wearing his cap cocked to the left and his post-save celebration of pantomining firing an arrow into the sky. I will be more irritated by the 2-0 counts and walks.

---

Lost in Rule 5: Nick Burdi and Luke Bard. Gained in Rule 5: Tyler Kinley. Three hard-throwing right handed relievers who spent much of 2017 in Double A.

Burdi and Bard were high draft picks during the second Terry Ryan era; both have missed more time than they've spent on the mound in the minors. The Twins reportedly tried to trade Burdi to the Braves last summer in the Jaime Garcia trade only to have him rejected on medical grounds. My guess is that the new regime does not believe either can remain sound enough to help the major league bullpen. And Burdi in particular is unlikely to fill the 90-day active roster requirement to retain Rule 5 picks in 2018. 

Kinley has been in the Marlins organization. His numbers in Double A and Triple A are not impressive, but he has apparently been dominating in winter ball so far, and the Twins opted to take a flier on him.

I will be surprised if Kinley sticks. 

A trip to Cedar Rapids: Photographic evidence

Yeah, you're tired of Cedar Rapids posts. Tough. I ain't done yet.

I warned you on Sunday that photos were coming. Here they are. Unless otherwise stated, they were made by my wife, Linda Vanderwerf.

Brian Navaretto takes a pitch. (Photo Edward Thoma)

Felix Jose delivers a pitch.

There were fireworks after two of the four
games.

Luke Bard fires his warmup pitches
 Saturday night, when the Kernels wore
special jerseys for "Jimmy Buffett Night."

Navaretto sets up behind the plate. He's
listed at 6-2, but he folds up nicely.

Nick Gordon in the on-deck circle. (Photo Edward Thoma.)

Australian right-hander Sam Gibbons ran a scoreless innings
streak past 28 innings before allowing two runs in the
seventh inning on Saturday night.

A trip to Cedar Rapids: John Curtiss and Luke Bard

The Twins in the past three years have used a goodly portion of their first-10-rounds draft picks to select college closers. The payoff on those picks so far have been minimal.

Luke Bard is one of those college closers. The Twins took him with the 42nd overall pick in 2012. He pitched seven innings on two levels that year, 13 innings in 2013, none at all last year. It's not much of a foundation for a pro career.

He's 24 now, which is old for the Midwest League, On Saturday night he made his 21st appearance for the Cedar Rapids Kernels, He struck out one in his sole inning of work, allowed two hits (one a scratch infield hit) and no runs. More important, he demonstrated the kind of velocity that intrigued the Twins when he was a collegian at Georgia Tech. He was consistently in the mid-90s on the scoreboard gun; at least one pitch was listed as 97.

The Twins talked in 2012 about trying him as a starter. Two seasons lost to injury have probably derailed that notion. His ERA for Cedar Rapids (2.11) is impressive; his strikeout rate (6.6) is less so. Still, it's the kind of arm one does not discard lightly.

The Twins took John Curtiss in the sixth round last year. He came off the disabled list about the time I showed up in town, and he threw a shutout inning of relief Saturday night. He popped a few mid-90 readings on the scoreboard gun as well.

Curtiss opened the season in the Kernels rotation and made seven starts before going on the shelf for almost two months. His numbers are quite opposite Bard's: A lousy ERA (5.68) and a better K rate (8.8 per nine innings).

Nobody's going to move from the Midwest League straight to the majors, so nobody I watched in Cedar Rapids should be viewed as immediate help for the major league team's beleaguered bullpen corps. That Curtiss and Bard are still in the Midwest League typifies the futility so far of the bullpen draft strategy.

(The Monday print column is about Nick Gordon, the 19-year-old shortstop prospect at C.R. and the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft. Read it here.)

Draft post follow up

In my morning post today I predicted that the Twins would sign supplemental round pick Luke Bard.

Tonight, the Twins announced that they had done so.

Bard was part of an intriguing approach taken by the Twins in this draft: In search of power arms, they loaded up with hard-throwing collegiate relievers, with the stated intent of converting many, if not all, to starters.

I expressed some doubts about this approach at the time, but as I said, if the Twins are successful in turning one of these guys into a quality major league starter, it justifies the strategy. (Particularly so if some of those who don't make it as starters remain healthy enough to be effective bullpenners in the majors.)

Bard might be the best bet of the collegians to make it as a starter.

Feeling the draft (and other topics)

D.J.Baxendale led Arkansas in wins, innings pitched and
strikeouts this year and started their first game in the
College World Series.

According to Baseball America's draft database, the Twins have signed nine of the 13 players they selected in the first 10 rounds.

One of the unsigned, RHP D.J. Baxendale (10th round), is pitching for Arkansas in the College World Series, so that he's unsigned is to be expected.

The most prominent of the unsigned players is RHP Luke Bard (supplemental pick). Bard is slotted for $1.227 million, and he may be angling for something more than that (the Twins are, according to Baseball America, more than $200,000 under their bonus cap so far). Bard's leverage is that as a college junior he could return to school and hope to be drafted higher next year. The Twins' leverage is that he doesn't sign,  this pick is "protected," meaning that the Twins would get the 43rd pick in next year's draft.

I expect Bard will sign.

The Twins have inked 19 of their 40 draftees.

---

Byron Buxton, the Twins first-rounder (No. 2 overall) was Baseball America's high school player of the year. Their story on him is here.

David A. Dorsey of the Fort Myers News-Press profiles Buxton here.

---

I took note the other day of Johan Santana's struggles in his first two starts after his no-hitter, so I should take note of his outing Tuesday against Baltimore: Six shutout innings, then an exit with 101 pitches. A good sign.

---

Scott Diamond spluttered a bit again Tuesday against Pittsburgh -- 5.1 innings, four runs, eight hits, just one strikeout, and command issues. He had nine GB outs and six FB outs, which isn't as strong a groundball rate as he has usually had.

I don't think his magic is gone, but I have to say I expected better against the Pirates.

Draft day, day 2: Morning edition

Having taken a high school outfielder with the second overall pick, the Twins turned to pitchers with their two supplemental picks Monday.

J.O. Berrios, a high school right-hander from Puerto Rico, was 49th on Baseball America's list, but the Twins clearly ranked him higher than that on their board. They took him with the 32nd pick.

BA on him:

Berrios worked with a conditioning coach this fall and spring and added 20-25 pounds to his frame since the summer and now has a muscular, athletic 6-foot-1, 180-pound physique. The added muscle has allowed him to smooth things out and has boosted his fastball velocity. His fastball now sits in the 93-95 mph range and some scouts have seen him touch 98. He throws his fastball down in the zone, mixes in a sharp, 80-81 mph slider and shows the makings of a solid changeup with fading action.

Six-one is short for a RHP, and he's not what scouts call "projectable" — meaning that there's not much chance that he's going to develop further physically. But the fastball's there, the breaking ball is good, and he might move faster through the system than most teens would.

Luke Bard, college righty from Georgia Tech, went with the 42nd pick. He's the brother of Boston's Daniel Bard, a power pitcher who did well as a set up man last year and struggled this season as a starter.  Luke Bard relies on a power sinker and hard slider and is seen by Baseball America as a likely bullpen arm. Bard is No. 93 on the BA list, and he missed much of this season with a torn lat muscle.

This pick reminds me of the selection in 2008 of Carlos Guterriez, who was, like Bard, a college reliever who relies on a heavy sinker. The Twins took Guterriez late in the first round and used him as a starter in the minors for a few years, partly to get him innings and partly in hopes that he'd master some secondary pitches and be a starting option.

That didn't take. Guterriez is now relegated to the bullpen, and he's had some injury issues the past two years. He's appeared in just five games this season for Rochester.

The Twins will apparently try the same approach with Bard -- use him as a starter and see if he sticks in the rotation.

Missing from Monday's draft list, of course, is Mitch Brown, the Rochester Century pitcher who has drawn obvious interest from the Twins (Terry Ryan has been seen at several of his starts, including one last weekend). Brown, listed at No. 44 by Baseball America, didn't go in the first 60 picks, and remains available as the second round awaits today.

The Twins have the third pick in the second round, and I will be surprised if they don't use it on Brown. But then, I was surprised they didn't use one of their supplemental picks on him.