Draft, Day three: And done

I wondered in the Wednesday post if the Twins had one more overslot draft pick in their plan. Miek Berardino of the Pioneer Press answered that quickly:

Suggestion from #mntwins scouting director Sean Johnson after Day 2 was board had been picked over. Day 3 mostly org guys. Money's spent.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) June 14, 2017

"Org guys" being baseball lingo for "players signed so the real prospects have enough teammates to make up a team."

The next step is crucial: Getting all 11 of the players drafted in the first 10 rounds signed to the expected deals. It appears that at least six of the selections are expected to take underslot deals, but the Twins can't afford to have somebody renege on that, a la Kyle Cody. The Twins picked Cody in the second round in 2015, and he opted to return to the University of Kentucky for his senior season instead.

Losing out on Cody wasn't a disaster. Cody wound up going in the sixth round last year, so he probably cost himself a lot of money, and his minor league numbers in the Rangers system are underwhelming. Plus the Twins got the 74th pick in the 2016 draft (prep outfielder Akil Baddoo) to compensate. (Baddoo is apparently waiting for the Appy League season to begin.)

But failing to sign Cody meant the Twins had the slot value of that pick deleted from their draft pool. That was relatively unimportant under Terry Ryan, because the Twins weren't trying to game the bonus pool system. This year they are. So failing to sign a high pick, even one they expect to sign under slot, will damage their entire draft.

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The Twins had 41 picks in total and used 21 of them on pitchers., including 15 on the final day. Thirty-one of their picks were collegians. They won't sign a lot of them, of course. Failure to sign picks after Round 10 don't count against the pool.

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Some minor league roster stuff to update: The Twins retained Drew Rucinski and Nick Tepesch, the two right-handers they recently designated for assignment. But they released Kevin Chapman, the lefty reliever they got from Atlanta for Danny Santana.

And amid all the draft stuff I hadn't noted that Ryan Pressly is back on the major league team, with Alex Wimmers shipped back to Rochester. Dick-n-Bert see Pressly as key to this bullpen, and he does have more of a power reliever's profile than anybody else out there, but really: even last year, his supposed breakout season, he wasn't that good.

The Twins do need a reliable righty to pair with Taylor Rogers in late innings to bridge between the starter/Tyler Duffey and closer Brandon Kintzler. I'm far from convinced Pressly is, or ever was, or will be, that reliable righty.

Draft, Day two: Going over and under (slot)

On the first day of the 2017 draft, the Twins selected frugally with their three picks. All are expected to sign for figures significantly "under slot".

That changed on Tuesday's second day with the first pick of the third round.

Source: #MNTwins third-round pick RHP Blayne Enlow to sign an above-slot deal worth roughly $2 million: https://t.co/p0TlZsEp9S

— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) June 14, 2017

Enlow, as Bollinger writes, was ranked No. 29 in the draft class by MLB.com, which would have put him at the bottom of the first round. The 18-year-old from Louisiana was signed to LSU. It took late first-round money to land him, and the underslot picks ahead of him helped make that possible.

The Twins also took three college seniors with their last three selections. With no remaining eligibility and thus a lack of negotiating leverage, they are likely to sign for a fraction of their allotment of the bonus pool, although the savings won't be as great as they were from Monday.

Here's Bollinger's recap of the Twins' Day Two selections. They are heavy on college pitchers, with far less of the power-arm reliever type that the organization has been picking in recent years, although one of the seniors is a bullpen arm.

One more day lies ahead, with picks outside the bonus pool. I don't know if the Twins have enough saved to make another splash in these lower rounds, but we can figure they have a good idea.

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I deemed Monday's Twins game a "the less said the better" affair, so I'll apply the same to Tuesday's 20-6 thrashing of Seattle. Nice days for the Eds of the roster, with Eddie Rosario hitting three homers and Eduardo Escobar going 5-for-6. A lot of batting averages got fattened up in that one.

But Kyle Gibson's ERA is now 6.79 after 11 starts. He's 4-0 in five starts since his return from the minors, but his ERA in that span is 5.46. and he has only one quality start. He's certainly not fixed yet.

Draft, Day one: Twins roll with Royce (Lewis)

Royce Lewis plays third base in 2016 for
Jserra Catholic High School.

I didn't, obviously, see that one coming.

I wrote eight posts that were sufficiently draft-related that I tagged it with "2017 draft." I wrote two Monday print columns, including this week's, about the draft. Never did I mention Royce Lewis, who wound up Monday night as the Twins' selection as a top overall pick.

The basic idea -- selecting somebody who would sign for considerably less than slot to save money for later picks -- I foresaw. My error was in seeing MacKenzie Gore, left-handed prep pitcher, as that somebody. As it turned out, the Padres had Gore as their favored fall back from local prospect Hunter Greene at No. 3, and that limited the incentive for Gore to cut a deal.

Both Gore and Lewis are said to be "advised" by Scott Boras, and Boras probably figured that if the Twins took Brendan McKay, Kyle Wright or Greene first that Lewis would fall to fifth or lower.

Lewis was pretty consistently seen as the best prep position player prospect. He's "toolsy," with speed and power, and played both shortstop and outfield in high school (a private school in San Juan Capistrano in southern California).

The Twins say they think Lewis can stick at shortstop; that is not a universal assessment, and it may be tested pretty early, since he and Wander Javier, a Dominican who beat Miguel Sano's Twins bonus record, figure to be at roughly the same level. Only one of them can play short at a time.

The Twins apparently saw the top players in this draft class as essentially equal; they drafted the one who would sign for the least. That is a fairly common strategy so far in the (short) bonus pool era, which (despite the Hunter Greene hype) hasn't truly featured a "generational" prospect.

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I had expected that the Twins would take local product Sam Carlson of Burnsville if the right-hander reached them at picks 35 and 37. He did, and they didn't.

No. 35 was Brent Rooker, an outfielder from Mississippi State who dominated the difficult SEC as a hitter. The Twins drafted him last year as a redshirt sophomore but didn't sign him. Obviously they still wanted him. He's probably limited to left field or first base defensively, and he's likely to be old for the first league he's assigned to.

No. 37 was Landon Leach, a right-handed pitcher from a high school in Ontario. Presumably the Twins like him more than Carlson.

The Twins have the first pick today when the draft resumes with the third round.

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The less said about Monday's Twins game, the better. The Twins optioned out Chris Heston to reinstate Jorge Polanco from the bereavement list and probably regretted that decision before the game was over, as Adalberto Mejia didn't get through four innings.

The Twins have a doubleheader coming before they have another off day, and they burned through a lot of relievers on Monday, so they'll be going back to 13 pitchers soon. And unless its to replace somebody going on the disabled list, it won't be Heston.

Notes, quotes and comment

The Twins ended their essentially successful West Coast marathon (6-4) with another dud of a bullpen performance on Sunday.

I wrote a lot last week about Matt Belisle specifically and the thinness of the bullpen in general -- pretty much every post from Monday through Saturday dealt with the relief corps -- so it was probably fitting that Belisle had a central role in Sunday's late inning collapse.

Belisle's ERA for the season now stands at 8.59, with almost all the damage coming in four appearances. He always figured to be an ill fit for a high-leverage role, but I don't know who else Paul Molitor can use in those situations with the current bullpen without wrecking Tyler Duffey and Brandon Kintzler with overuse. There are just too many mop-up type arms on this staff.

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The draft begins tonight. I devoted the Monday print column to my thoughts on who and what the the Twins should do with the first overall pick. With, of course, the disclaimer that the Twins know a lot more about this than I do.

I don't expect the Twins to follow my "recommendation," and I certainly won't criticize them when they don't.

One thing I didn't get to in a slightly longer than usual column: Sports Illustrated did nobody any favors by putting Hunter Greene on its cover a few weeks ago. The people who cover the scouting and prospect world for a living say the consensus is that Greene is a lesser prospect than a couple of high school righties from the previous two draft classes.

What makes Greene unique is that he's a viable first-round pick as both a pitcher and a shortstop. But I can't imagine that anybody is going to let him throw a few dozen high-velocity fastballs on Tuesday and play shortstop on Wednesday. He's going to do one or the other.

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Catching up on the Twins roster moves: Randy Rosario was indeed shipped back to the minors (to Triple-A Rochester rather than Double A Chattanooga, from whence he was called up) to make room for Nik Turley, the Sunday starter, on the 25-man roster, To make room on the 40-man roster, Dan Rucinski was designated for assignment.

Turley wasn't great Sunday -- four innings, eight hits, four runs -- but he didn't walk anybody and struck out four and threw 46 strikes in his 73 pitches. I expect he'll get more starts; Phil Hughes hasn't thrown since going on the DL, so he's not close to returning, and Hector Santiago doesn't have a timeline to return either.

Jorge Polanco is to rejoin the team from his breavement leave today, so another move is coming.

Notes, quotes and comment

Baseball America over the weekend released Mock Draft 3.5. Why 3.5 rather than 4.0 I don't know. But they kept Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt right hander, as the first overall selection, as "the best combination of upside and modest risk." It's the first time they haven't had a different first pick for the Twins.

EPSN's Keith Law also issued a mock draft (behind a paywall) and had the Twins taking Wright:

I’ve heard that the Twins are in on at least four players at No. 1, including Brendan McKay (as a bat or a two-way guy but not just as a pitcher), Mackenzie Gore and Hunter Greene, but the current betting in the industry is that they will take Wright as the prospect with the best combination of floor and ceiling.

I haven't mentioned Gore in any of my draft posts; he's a high school lefty from North Carolina. My guess is that he would only be the pick if

• He agrees to a sharply below slot contract before the draft and
• The Twins have a plan to use the extra money on later picks.

That approach certainly worked for Houston when the Astros took Carlos Correa 1-1 over Byron Buxton.

Draft begins June 12.

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Nick Tepesch, who had one brief start with the major league club in early May, went on the Triple A disabled list with "elbow impingement." With an ERA at Rochester of 5.59 -- which if anything understates how poor his results have been (six homers in 29 innings) -- it's not like he was on the verge of coming back up, but it's another reason to expect the Twins to leave Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia in the rotation for a while.

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Glen Perkins threw to hitters on Tuesday at Target Field. He threw 23 pitches, all fastballs. Chris Gimenez, one of the hitters to face him, said the velocity was in the mid 80s but saw good movement.

Perkins now returns to Fort Myers to continue his rehab. According to the Mike Berardino piece linked to above, the plan calls for a few more live BP sessions at extended spring training followed by a rehab assignment with the Class A Miracle. That sounds like a timeline for a late July return if everything works perfectly.

Feelin' a draft

A few more mock drafts came across my view Thursday.

Baseball America's John Manuel unveiled his third mock, and once again had a different 1-1. This time it was Kyle Wright, right handed pitcher from Vanderbilt. In his first, it was high school right-hander Hunter Greene; in the second, Brendan McKay, a two-way star from Louisville.

Manuel:

Minnesota appears to be leaning toward McKay, but considering him as much now as a hitter as on the mound. Some evaluators agree that McKay has more looseness at the plate than he does on the mound, and may have more upside as a hitter, but that he’s a safer bet on the mound.

However, the best combination of upside and modest risk is Vanderbilt righthander Kyle Wright, who is the third player on the Twins’ list in addition to McKay and Greene. The Twins have been in hard on Wright’s last three starts, and in his last five, he’s struck out 51 and walks seven in 39.1 innings while posting a 1.14 ERA. He’s showing up to four plus pitches at times and trending toward being the No. 1 overall pick, as long as the price is right.

Aaron Fitt, once a colleague of Manuel's at Baseball America and now with D1baseball.com, posted his own mock Thursday, and while most of it is for subscribers. he also has Wright as the Twins likely pick. Two other mocks, from John Sickles of minorleagueball.com and Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, had McKay going to the Twins, but without specifying a position (first base or pitcher).

To repeat what I said the other day: I'd be a fool to say I know more about these prospects than the Twins do. This is a high-stakes pick, and the Twins have to balance upside with risk, and they are doing their research. The Twins know everything I know about these guys, and a great deal more. I am underinformed.

One piece of information to consider is that McKay's reported velocity has fallen off in recent starts, and he's taken to throwing a cutter that is apparently relatively new to his arsenal of pitches. I feel pretty confident in this opinion: If the Twins take McKay, it should be as a hitter, not as a pitcher.

There's only one way

As discussed in the Monday print column, the two most likely candidates for the Twins to take with the first pick next month are two-way players. Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay are legitimate prospects both as pitchers and hitters.

But when they enter pro ball, they will drop one. It may not be their idea or their choice -- indeed, both have reportedly indicated an interest in being two-way players in the pros -- but no organization is going to invest $7 million and such a premium draft pick in a player on the supposition that he can do both. It's both a health issue and a developmental one.

Consider Greene, who plays shortstop for his high school team in the San Diego area when he is not on the mound. Teens with his extreme velocity -- he's been clocked at 102 mph this spring -- are rare, but they also come with high injury risk. Letting him pitch one day and play shortstop the next -- making throws off balance and from the hole -- only figures to add to the risk.

McKay's injury risk is somewhat less than Greene's. He's older, he has less velocity, and his non-pitching position, first base, is the spot on the diamond that requires the least from the throwing arm. But the risk is there anyway, because pitchers get hurt, period.

The other concern is developmental. Do not underestimate the amount of work even top prospects face in advancing their abilities to succeed in the majors. Again, the risk here is higher with the younger, less polished Greene, but it is genuine for McKay as well. Splitting their development between pitching and hitting may mean not succeeding at either.

Casey Kelly was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Red Sox out of high school as a pitcher/shortstop. He split his first two years in the minors between pitching and short before dropping the position for the 2010 season. He's a pitcher now -- but at age 27 in his fourth organization (Boston, San Diego, Atlanta and now the Cubs), and while he has reached the majors he certainly hasn't succeeded. I can't prove that the indecision in his teens undermined him, but it probably didn't help.

There are occasional two-way guys in the majors -- Christian Bethancourt made the Padres out of spring training this year as a pitcher/catcher but has since been sent down, and Brooks Kieschnick milked a couple of partial seasons in the majors as a reliever/pinch hitter a bit more than a decade ago -- but they are essentially fringe players. Teams certainly expect more than that out of players taken at the top of the draft.

Feeling a draft

A new -- to me at least -- notion about what the Twins might do with the first pick in June's MLB draft:

Best player available for @Twins at 1. Best guess right now is McKay as 1B. @MLBDraft https://t.co/YB2O3Asfeh

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) April 28, 2017

Jim Callis is one of MLB.com's prospect writers, and while stuck in an airport Thursday did a Twitter chat about the draft. The above was his response to a question about whether the Twins would go hitter or pitcher with the No. 1 overall pick.

The idea that the Twins might take Brendan McKay of Louisville is not new; that's how Baseball America projected it in its most recent mock. But McKay is, in college, a two-way player -- pitcher on Friday, first baseman the rest of the week -- and he has been viewed primarily as a pitcher. Callis sees it differently:

McKay could go either way. I would take as 1B because more ceiling than LHP. Some swear by him as a LHP though. https://t.co/vRupJ27o9P

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) April 28, 2017

A couple days earlier, after McKay hit four home runs in a game:

Was already thinking I'd prefer McKay as a 1B rather than a LHP before I saw this. Think he might be a .300/20 HR guy. @MLBDraft https://t.co/sEuxVM62sl

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) April 25, 2017

A John Manuel piece posted Thursday by Baseball America examines why college hitters surge up draft boards every year.  It might help explain why McKay might be viewed as a hitter rather than as a pitcher.

Feeling a draft

Baseball America on Thursday released Mock Draft 2.0. This time they have the Twins bypassing Hunter Greene with the first overall pick for Brendan McKay, LHP-1B at the University of Louisville.

John Manuel:

Rumors of the Twins floating deals with several players are circulating, with players as disparate as Southern California prep Royce Lewis to Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith. But the least controversial player on the board is Louisville’s two-way star Brendan McKay, whom the Twins would pick as a pitcher. 

....

Hunter Greene, the top prep player on the board and owner of a 100 mph fastball, has had an up-and-down spring, and the rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret. The Padres’ throwing program is more in line with Greene’s program, and it’s on the West Coast, among other advantages. Greene isn’t pitching this week in the Boras Classic and is widely believed to be shutting down as a pitcher in another attempt to move down to the third pick.

My at-a-distance sense on the choice between Greene and McKay is that Greene should be the pick on the basis that he has the higher ceiling. I have seen reports on McKay describing him as a No. 3 starter -- which is not to be sneered at, but doesn't evoke daydreams of a dominant, Hall of Fame caliber starter.

But McKay is also described as sufficiently polished that he could pitch almost immediately in the majors. Low ceiling, perhaps, than Greene, but also a higher floor.

What if McKay's ceiling is MadBum and his floor is Ted Lilly?
And Greene's ceiling is Verlander and his floor is Brien Taylor?

— Jeremy Nygaard (@jeremynygaard) April 20, 2017

About seven weeks until the draft.

BA's first mock draft

We are more than three months away from the baseball draft, with a lot of college and high school ball to be played, even in the warm weather states.

But on Thursday John Manuel of Baseball America issued that publication's first mock draft of the season. And since the Twins have the first pick, his projections start there.

This piece is best viewed as an introduction to the candidates for high selection and the issues facing the talent evaluators than as a hard prediction of the draft itself. Manuel's forecast -- that the Twins will take prep pitcher/shortstop Hunter Greene -- may very well be correct come June; he's been viewed as a front-runner for that distinction virtually since the 2016 draft closed. But there's a lot of slips, slides and helium between now and then.

And, perhaps, skulduggery. An interesting phrase from Manuel regarding San Diego and the third selection: "Everyone expects the Padres and GM A.J. Preller to try to do what it takes to push Greene down to them at No. 3 ..."  My interpretation is that the Padres are likely to make quiet promises of X money if Greene and his camp discourage the Twins and Reds from selecting him. Greene is from the San Diego area.

Notes, quotes and comment

Most prominent news nugget tweeted out of the Diamond Awards ceremony held Thursday night by the Twin Cities chapter of the BBWAA: Rod Carew, who had a heart/kidney double transplant a bit more than a month ago, may be released from the hospital today.

I haven't any idea if Sir Rodney will be able to make his annual spring training gig this year. He wasn't supposed to last year and showed up anyway. Whether he gets to Fort Myers or not, his continued recovery is devoutly desired.

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The Twins, as we know, have the first pick in next June's amateur draft. They also, as should be expected, have the largest draft pool, according to Baseball America: just under $13.5 million.

The new labor deal changes the draft pool formula, bringing teams closer together and reducing the amounts alloted to the top picks; this is expected to limit the incentive for teams to "tank" in search of maximum flexibility.

The Twins have the first, 35th and 37th overall picks.