Feelin' a draft

A few more mock drafts came across my view Thursday.

Baseball America's John Manuel unveiled his third mock, and once again had a different 1-1. This time it was Kyle Wright, right handed pitcher from Vanderbilt. In his first, it was high school right-hander Hunter Greene; in the second, Brendan McKay, a two-way star from Louisville.

Manuel:

Minnesota appears to be leaning toward McKay, but considering him as much now as a hitter as on the mound. Some evaluators agree that McKay has more looseness at the plate than he does on the mound, and may have more upside as a hitter, but that he’s a safer bet on the mound.

However, the best combination of upside and modest risk is Vanderbilt righthander Kyle Wright, who is the third player on the Twins’ list in addition to McKay and Greene. The Twins have been in hard on Wright’s last three starts, and in his last five, he’s struck out 51 and walks seven in 39.1 innings while posting a 1.14 ERA. He’s showing up to four plus pitches at times and trending toward being the No. 1 overall pick, as long as the price is right.

Aaron Fitt, once a colleague of Manuel's at Baseball America and now with D1baseball.com, posted his own mock Thursday, and while most of it is for subscribers. he also has Wright as the Twins likely pick. Two other mocks, from John Sickles of minorleagueball.com and Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, had McKay going to the Twins, but without specifying a position (first base or pitcher).

To repeat what I said the other day: I'd be a fool to say I know more about these prospects than the Twins do. This is a high-stakes pick, and the Twins have to balance upside with risk, and they are doing their research. The Twins know everything I know about these guys, and a great deal more. I am underinformed.

One piece of information to consider is that McKay's reported velocity has fallen off in recent starts, and he's taken to throwing a cutter that is apparently relatively new to his arsenal of pitches. I feel pretty confident in this opinion: If the Twins take McKay, it should be as a hitter, not as a pitcher.

Notes, quotes and comment

The #Twins still are undecided but now leaning towards passing on HS pitcher Hunter Greene and taking Louisville 1B Brendan McKay w 1st pick

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) May 15, 2017

No link, no indication of source. Noteworthy, however, for the identification of McKay not as a pitcher but as a first baseman.

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A few Twins roster moves of late that I hadn't noted:

Michael Tonkin passed through waivers Saturday, indicating that (unlike Danny Santana) nobody thought him worth a roster spot, and has been reassigned to Triple A Rochester. So he remains in the organization.

Normally retaining a player is better than losing him, but I fear that Tonkin's availability might result in him getting another opportunity over one of the younger relief prospects.

Engelb Vielma and Nick Gordon had been splitting time at shortstop and second base with each other at  Double A Chattanooga. Indeed, as of this morning the Lookouts team page at Baseball Reference had each with 19 games at short and 14 at second, an even split.

But Vielma has been moved up to Triple A after slashing ,286/.362/.328 for Jake Mauer's team. Gordon (.317.,380/.472) remains in Chatanooga. This presumably opens the door for each to revert to his usual shortstop position, probably more so for Gordon than Vielma.

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In all of American League history dating back to 1901, more games have now been played with the Designated Hitter Rule than without it.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) May 15, 2017

The AL inflicted the DH rule on itself in 1973 (as my verb choice implies, I'm not a fan), so there are still fewer seasons with it than without, but the seasons are longer now than for most of the time pre-DH and there are more AL teams than pre-DH, so there are more games per year.

Notes, quotes and comment

A pretty good weekend for the Twins. They took a series in Cleveland and may have found another rotation piece in Jose Berrios.

Berrios's strong outing Saturday was not flawless, but he looked like the pitcher Twins fans have been anticipating for a few years.

Of course, for those of use inclined to see the glass half-empty, that was followed by a poor outing by Hector Santiago, whose ERA rose more than a run Sunday. I'll view that as an aberration until he shows otherwise.

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Friday is the night college aces come out to pitch, and Louisville's Brendan McKay, the two-way star often projected as the Twins pick as the first overall in next month's draft, had an intriguing matchup versus Clemson and slugger Seth Beer (who may be the best hitter in college ball but is not eligible for this year's draft).

Michael Lananna covered that game for Baseball America, noting that McKay threw five scoreless innings without his best stuff. He added on Twitter:

To the Twins fans nervous about my McKay tweets: he doesn't have his best stuff today. It happens. His full body of work is very impressive.

— Michael Lananna (@mlananna) May 12, 2017

John Manuel, also of BA, had this comment about McKay as a pitcher:

Who adds a pitch who has dominated for so long? McKay added cutter 3-4 weeks ago. Interesting development for #MLBdraft https://t.co/PB4ysaVq9E

— John Manuel (@johnmanuelba) May 12, 2017

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Meanwhile, Kyle Wright, a right-handed pitcher from Vanderbilt, has propelled himself into 1-1 speculation with McKay and Hunter Greene. He threw seven scoreless innings against Arkansas on Friday.

Wright has more velocity than McKay but is not (probably) as polished as the lefty. He's also probably a safer selection than the high schooler Greene.

I think it's quite likely that if the Twins take McKay 1-1, it will be as a first baseman. But I can see any of the three being taken in four outcomes: Greene, McKay as a hitter, McKay as a pitcher, or Wright. And I certainly won't pretend that I know more about the choices than the Twins scouting department does.

There's only one way

As discussed in the Monday print column, the two most likely candidates for the Twins to take with the first pick next month are two-way players. Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay are legitimate prospects both as pitchers and hitters.

But when they enter pro ball, they will drop one. It may not be their idea or their choice -- indeed, both have reportedly indicated an interest in being two-way players in the pros -- but no organization is going to invest $7 million and such a premium draft pick in a player on the supposition that he can do both. It's both a health issue and a developmental one.

Consider Greene, who plays shortstop for his high school team in the San Diego area when he is not on the mound. Teens with his extreme velocity -- he's been clocked at 102 mph this spring -- are rare, but they also come with high injury risk. Letting him pitch one day and play shortstop the next -- making throws off balance and from the hole -- only figures to add to the risk.

McKay's injury risk is somewhat less than Greene's. He's older, he has less velocity, and his non-pitching position, first base, is the spot on the diamond that requires the least from the throwing arm. But the risk is there anyway, because pitchers get hurt, period.

The other concern is developmental. Do not underestimate the amount of work even top prospects face in advancing their abilities to succeed in the majors. Again, the risk here is higher with the younger, less polished Greene, but it is genuine for McKay as well. Splitting their development between pitching and hitting may mean not succeeding at either.

Casey Kelly was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Red Sox out of high school as a pitcher/shortstop. He split his first two years in the minors between pitching and short before dropping the position for the 2010 season. He's a pitcher now -- but at age 27 in his fourth organization (Boston, San Diego, Atlanta and now the Cubs), and while he has reached the majors he certainly hasn't succeeded. I can't prove that the indecision in his teens undermined him, but it probably didn't help.

There are occasional two-way guys in the majors -- Christian Bethancourt made the Padres out of spring training this year as a pitcher/catcher but has since been sent down, and Brooks Kieschnick milked a couple of partial seasons in the majors as a reliever/pinch hitter a bit more than a decade ago -- but they are essentially fringe players. Teams certainly expect more than that out of players taken at the top of the draft.

Feeling a draft

A new -- to me at least -- notion about what the Twins might do with the first pick in June's MLB draft:

Best player available for @Twins at 1. Best guess right now is McKay as 1B. @MLBDraft https://t.co/YB2O3Asfeh

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) April 28, 2017

Jim Callis is one of MLB.com's prospect writers, and while stuck in an airport Thursday did a Twitter chat about the draft. The above was his response to a question about whether the Twins would go hitter or pitcher with the No. 1 overall pick.

The idea that the Twins might take Brendan McKay of Louisville is not new; that's how Baseball America projected it in its most recent mock. But McKay is, in college, a two-way player -- pitcher on Friday, first baseman the rest of the week -- and he has been viewed primarily as a pitcher. Callis sees it differently:

McKay could go either way. I would take as 1B because more ceiling than LHP. Some swear by him as a LHP though. https://t.co/vRupJ27o9P

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) April 28, 2017

A couple days earlier, after McKay hit four home runs in a game:

Was already thinking I'd prefer McKay as a 1B rather than a LHP before I saw this. Think he might be a .300/20 HR guy. @MLBDraft https://t.co/sEuxVM62sl

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) April 25, 2017

A John Manuel piece posted Thursday by Baseball America examines why college hitters surge up draft boards every year.  It might help explain why McKay might be viewed as a hitter rather than as a pitcher.

Feeling a draft

Baseball America on Thursday released Mock Draft 2.0. This time they have the Twins bypassing Hunter Greene with the first overall pick for Brendan McKay, LHP-1B at the University of Louisville.

John Manuel:

Rumors of the Twins floating deals with several players are circulating, with players as disparate as Southern California prep Royce Lewis to Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith. But the least controversial player on the board is Louisville’s two-way star Brendan McKay, whom the Twins would pick as a pitcher. 

....

Hunter Greene, the top prep player on the board and owner of a 100 mph fastball, has had an up-and-down spring, and the rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret. The Padres’ throwing program is more in line with Greene’s program, and it’s on the West Coast, among other advantages. Greene isn’t pitching this week in the Boras Classic and is widely believed to be shutting down as a pitcher in another attempt to move down to the third pick.

My at-a-distance sense on the choice between Greene and McKay is that Greene should be the pick on the basis that he has the higher ceiling. I have seen reports on McKay describing him as a No. 3 starter -- which is not to be sneered at, but doesn't evoke daydreams of a dominant, Hall of Fame caliber starter.

But McKay is also described as sufficiently polished that he could pitch almost immediately in the majors. Low ceiling, perhaps, than Greene, but also a higher floor.

What if McKay's ceiling is MadBum and his floor is Ted Lilly?
And Greene's ceiling is Verlander and his floor is Brien Taylor?

— Jeremy Nygaard (@jeremynygaard) April 20, 2017

About seven weeks until the draft.