Baseball America's John Manuel unveiled his third mock, and once again had a different 1-1. This time it was Kyle Wright, right handed pitcher from Vanderbilt. In his first, it was high school right-hander Hunter Greene; in the second, Brendan McKay, a two-way star from Louisville.
Manuel:
Minnesota appears to be leaning toward McKay, but considering him as much now as a hitter as on the mound. Some evaluators agree that McKay has more looseness at the plate than he does on the mound, and may have more upside as a hitter, but that he’s a safer bet on the mound.
However, the best combination of upside and modest risk is Vanderbilt righthander Kyle Wright, who is the third player on the Twins’ list in addition to McKay and Greene. The Twins have been in hard on Wright’s last three starts, and in his last five, he’s struck out 51 and walks seven in 39.1 innings while posting a 1.14 ERA. He’s showing up to four plus pitches at times and trending toward being the No. 1 overall pick, as long as the price is right.
Aaron Fitt, once a colleague of Manuel's at Baseball America and now with D1baseball.com, posted his own mock Thursday, and while most of it is for subscribers. he also has Wright as the Twins likely pick. Two other mocks, from John Sickles of minorleagueball.com and Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, had McKay going to the Twins, but without specifying a position (first base or pitcher).
To repeat what I said the other day: I'd be a fool to say I know more about these prospects than the Twins do. This is a high-stakes pick, and the Twins have to balance upside with risk, and they are doing their research. The Twins know everything I know about these guys, and a great deal more. I am underinformed.
One piece of information to consider is that McKay's reported velocity has fallen off in recent starts, and he's taken to throwing a cutter that is apparently relatively new to his arsenal of pitches. I feel pretty confident in this opinion: If the Twins take McKay, it should be as a hitter, not as a pitcher.
