There's only one way

As discussed in the Monday print column, the two most likely candidates for the Twins to take with the first pick next month are two-way players. Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay are legitimate prospects both as pitchers and hitters.

But when they enter pro ball, they will drop one. It may not be their idea or their choice -- indeed, both have reportedly indicated an interest in being two-way players in the pros -- but no organization is going to invest $7 million and such a premium draft pick in a player on the supposition that he can do both. It's both a health issue and a developmental one.

Consider Greene, who plays shortstop for his high school team in the San Diego area when he is not on the mound. Teens with his extreme velocity -- he's been clocked at 102 mph this spring -- are rare, but they also come with high injury risk. Letting him pitch one day and play shortstop the next -- making throws off balance and from the hole -- only figures to add to the risk.

McKay's injury risk is somewhat less than Greene's. He's older, he has less velocity, and his non-pitching position, first base, is the spot on the diamond that requires the least from the throwing arm. But the risk is there anyway, because pitchers get hurt, period.

The other concern is developmental. Do not underestimate the amount of work even top prospects face in advancing their abilities to succeed in the majors. Again, the risk here is higher with the younger, less polished Greene, but it is genuine for McKay as well. Splitting their development between pitching and hitting may mean not succeeding at either.

Casey Kelly was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Red Sox out of high school as a pitcher/shortstop. He split his first two years in the minors between pitching and short before dropping the position for the 2010 season. He's a pitcher now -- but at age 27 in his fourth organization (Boston, San Diego, Atlanta and now the Cubs), and while he has reached the majors he certainly hasn't succeeded. I can't prove that the indecision in his teens undermined him, but it probably didn't help.

There are occasional two-way guys in the majors -- Christian Bethancourt made the Padres out of spring training this year as a pitcher/catcher but has since been sent down, and Brooks Kieschnick milked a couple of partial seasons in the majors as a reliever/pinch hitter a bit more than a decade ago -- but they are essentially fringe players. Teams certainly expect more than that out of players taken at the top of the draft.

Feeling a draft

Baseball America on Thursday released Mock Draft 2.0. This time they have the Twins bypassing Hunter Greene with the first overall pick for Brendan McKay, LHP-1B at the University of Louisville.

John Manuel:

Rumors of the Twins floating deals with several players are circulating, with players as disparate as Southern California prep Royce Lewis to Virginia first baseman Pavin Smith. But the least controversial player on the board is Louisville’s two-way star Brendan McKay, whom the Twins would pick as a pitcher. 

....

Hunter Greene, the top prep player on the board and owner of a 100 mph fastball, has had an up-and-down spring, and the rumors of he and his family attempting to maneuver his way to the No. 3 pick with the Padres are a poorly kept secret. The Padres’ throwing program is more in line with Greene’s program, and it’s on the West Coast, among other advantages. Greene isn’t pitching this week in the Boras Classic and is widely believed to be shutting down as a pitcher in another attempt to move down to the third pick.

My at-a-distance sense on the choice between Greene and McKay is that Greene should be the pick on the basis that he has the higher ceiling. I have seen reports on McKay describing him as a No. 3 starter -- which is not to be sneered at, but doesn't evoke daydreams of a dominant, Hall of Fame caliber starter.

But McKay is also described as sufficiently polished that he could pitch almost immediately in the majors. Low ceiling, perhaps, than Greene, but also a higher floor.

What if McKay's ceiling is MadBum and his floor is Ted Lilly?
And Greene's ceiling is Verlander and his floor is Brien Taylor?

— Jeremy Nygaard (@jeremynygaard) April 20, 2017

About seven weeks until the draft.