Thursday, September 9, 2010

Daydreaming about Zach Greinke

Zach Greinke:
The Twins are ruining
his season stats
Zach Greinke is having a "bad season." The defending Cy Young Award winner isn't going to retain that title; he's now 8-12 with an ERA of 3.91, which is more than 1.5 runs worse than last year.

The Twins have stuck him with four of those losses and a good portion of that ERA. (When he's not facing the Twins, his ERA this season is 3.36, which is still more than a run worse than last season but really isn't bad at all,)

The strikeout rate is down, but still well above average. (He whiffed 9.5 men per nine innings last season, a bit less than 7.3 per nine this year). He walks roughly one man for every four strikeouts. He still looks to me like an elite pitcher.

He's also a bit of a frustrated one, because the Royals have been bad for years and he's getting tired of waiting for reinforcements.

Prospect gurus drool over the Kansas City farm system; years of drafting early have resulted in a growing stockpile of talent. Unfortunately, almost all of it is in Double A or lower, and the Royals didn't even bring any of it up for a September look-see.

So here's Greinke, from the above link, speaking about a month ago on the outlook:

“Every system has something.The biggest problem is I have two more years on my contract. Are those guys supposed to make it up by the beginning of next year? Very rarely do guys come straight into the big leagues and make an impact, especially hitters. Just look at the top prospects in baseball. Delmon Young was one five years ago, and he’s finally starting to play well.  ... So the problem (with the Royals’ prospects) is that it’s not like as soon as they get here that it’s going to be instant (success). Maybe by 2014. There’s no reason for me to get real excited about it, because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim.”

The Royals don't have to do anything about this; as Greinke said, he has two more years on his contract, and maybe the Royals really can turn things around by then.

But they have, at the moment, a star who has apparently soured on his surroundings -- and, what's more, a star whose well-documented emotional/mental health issues may make him of limited interest to the big-market, high-pressure franchises.

If I'm Bill Smith, checking with Kansas City on Greinke's availability is on my wintertime list of things to do.


  1. Spot on on the Greinke assessment... Man would he look great in a Twins uni. The mind wonders and wanders.

  2. Ed, is he worth two prime prospects and a bulk type pitcher? For example, Gibson, Revere, and Baker/Blackburn. That seems like an intriguing deal from the persepctives of both teams.