Contemplating Martin Perez

The Twins on Wednesday made the signing of free-agent lefty starter Martin Perez official. Right-hander Chase DeJong was designated for assignment.

If the purpose of waiting more than a week after news of the Perez agreement broke was to give me time to rationalize his addition and mute my displeasure (news break: it wasn't), it failed. I don't care for this signing at all.

I can grant that Perez' ugly 2018 was marred by injury to his non-pitching arm, that he's only 28, that he had two seasons as a fixture in the Texas rotation. I know full well that the Rangers stadium is a rough environment for hurlers and the Rangers have not often prioritized defense in their lineup in recent seasons. And one year, $4 million is a pretty disposable contract in 2019.

All these reasons to see upside in Perez are, in my view, irrelevant. Even when he was sound and working mor than 180 innings a season for the Rangers, he was at best ineffective. And last year, he was even worse:

New #MNTwins pitcher Martin Perez @statcast rankings last season.....https://t.co/7umz5KW9Y2 pic.twitter.com/wq98kvPs99

— Daren Willman (@darenw) January 20, 2019

About the one thing he did well in 2018, according to Statcast, was spin curve balls.

Perez's low strikeout rates suggest that success for him means being a low-walk, ground ball machine. Tommy John was the prototype of that kind of pitcher, and I have always had a soft spot for guys like that., probably because of Geoff Zahn back in the 70s for the Twins. But

• that type of pitcher is essentially obsolete today;
• that type of pitcher is very team dependent, and I don't think the Twins are likely to give him the defensive backing he needs; and
• Perez has never thrown enough strikes to make the Tommy John model a true fit for him

Every opportunity Perez gets in the Minnesota rotation figures to be at the expense of somebody like Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero, Zach Littell or the presumably discarded DeJong. Somebody, in other words, who has a chance to turn into a truly useful major league starter.

Not that I was all that optimistic about DeJong. I had (and have) more confidence in Aaron Slegers, lost earlier this offseason to the Pirates on waivers. I will, however, note that in DeJong the Twins have DFA'd somebody acquirred by the new management team rather than, say, Tyler Duffey. I had expected Duffey to be more on the bubble than DeJong.

deGrom, De Jong and de manager

The prospect of facing Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in a two-game series in Queens was rather daunting; I would have been quite satisfied with a split. Now that the Twins have not only won the first game but battered the defending NL Cy Young winner -- well, rationally the split is still sufficient, but a sweep sounds a lot better.

If you were paying attention Tuesday night, you know how rare that game was. DeGrom had had 26 consecutive quality starts, tied with the 1968 version of Bob Gibson for most ever. His ERA last year was 1.70. And the Twins scored six earned runs in four innings off him. From the New York Post's Joel Sherman:

That was as many as he had permitted last July. Don’t look for the date — the whole month of July. That was as many as he allowed last August. That was one fewer than he let in last September. And it was six more than he had yielded in two starts to open 2019 ...

The Twins didn't pick on a punching bag Tuesday night. At least not until they got into the Mets bullpen.

---

Chase De Jong, handed the ninth inning mop-up duties, was awful. He walked three, gave up four earned runs and basically looked like he had no business back in the major leagues.

To be fair, he hadn't pitched in a while; he was supposed to have started the opener for the Rochester Red Wings, but they got weathered out, and then he was called up to provide length in the Minnesota bullpen after Jake Odorizzi stunk things up last Friday.

I said on Twitter that De Jong was pitching his way off the roster. But ... the Twins bullpen is still in pretty good shape. De Jong shouldn't be available after throwing more than 45 pitches in that ugly inning, but the rest of the bullpenners worked short stints. Taylor Rogers didn't pitch at all, and Trevor Hildenberger and Blake Parker faced just one man each.

And Rocco Baldelli apparently intends to get Martin Perez some innings in this series. My guess is that even if Odorizzi throws six scoreless innings today, Perez gets the ball for the seventh. After all, there's yet another offday on Thursday, and who knows what the weather holds for the homestand to follow.

So De Jong, who is out of options, might stick around after all. His lousy outing -- and it was lousy -- didn't stress the rest of the bullpen.

---

Baldelli could have gone for the length from Perez after Hildenberger got the Twins out of the fifth inning. In fact, that's what I expected. Instead, he pieced the rest of the game together with a pitcher use reminiscent of Ron Gardenhire's -- one inning from Trevor May, split an inning between Aldaberto Mejia and Parker, an inning from Ryne Harper, an inning from De Jong. Nobody but DeJong was used hard, and all should be available today.

But I suspect that Baldelli would prefer not to use any relievers today other than Perez and Rogers. He's not often used anybody on consecutive days so far, although there have been so many off days that we probably shouldn't draw any conclusions about his bullpen use patterns.

Assuming that he does go for length from Perez today, he will have handled the 'pen in this series as if we were still in spring training -- give everybody a little work to stay sharp, give Perez some length to stay stretched out for his eventual entry into the starting rotation. Doing those things and winning the games is ideal.

---

Multi-position man Marwin Gonzalez played a lot of first base with the Astros -- more than twice as many games, starts and innings at first than at third in his seven seasons with Houston.

Multi-position man Willians Astudillo entered Tuesday having played more third base in the majors than anywhere other than catcher and with just two innings at first in his brief big-league tenure.

But Baldelli on Tuesday started Gonzalez at third and Astudillo at first, La Tortuga's first big league start at that position. (Baldelli later took Gonzalez out in a double-switch, but Astudillo played the full game at first base.)

My interpretation of that: As long as Miguel Sano remains off the active roster, Gonzalez is primarily a third baseman. He has played four innings at first. He hasn't seen the outfield yet, and he hasn't been in the middle infield either.

Contemplating the bullpen

Two pronouncments Monday out of Fort Myers by manager Rocco Baldelli about the Minnesota bullpen:

• He is indeed not naming a closer, or designating specific roles for his relief crew. (This matches the thesis of the Monday print column.) 
• Non-roster invitee Ryne Harper will be on the opening day roster.

Harper, as you can see by clicking the above link, has a rather extensive minor-league resume, heavier on Double A innings than Triple A. While he has had a (very) brief major league callup, he never appeared in a game, so when he takes the mound it will be his major league debut. Expect lots of curve balls from him.

Contemporary bullpens are always a work in progress. This will be no exception. The Twins are to open the season with an 11-man pitching staff. The number will rise from there.

Three of last year's bullpen appear likely to be on the injured list by Thursday's opener (righties Matt Magill and Addison Reed and lefy Gabriel Moya), and it sounds as if the Twins expect Magill and Moya to be ready relatively soon. Presumably at least one of them will be ready when the Twins need to shift Martin Perez to the rotation.

Perez, the fifth starter, is going to begin the season in the bullpen because of a cluster of April off days. So this 11-man staff breaks down for now as:

Starters: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson (that's the announced order).

Late-inning relievers: Trevor Hildenberger, Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers

Not-so-late: Perez, Harper, Aldaberto Mejia

One thing to watch in these first couple of weeks is how Baldelli uses Perez. One major goal is going to be keeping the lefty stretched out so that when he's inserted into the starting rotation he's ready to give them at least five to six innings. I suspect that's part of why Gibson's going last, so that Perez can "piggy back" with either Odorizzi (who seldom pitches deep into games) or Pineda (who will probably be handled with some care early on in his second year back from Tommy John surgery).

Random winter meeting takeaways

*The Twins neither took nor made a selection in the Rule 5 draft, which essentially closes baseball's annual winter meetings.

That they skipped making a pick was no surprise. They're not eager to devote a roster spot to a developmental project, even with 26-man rosters next year. And they shouldn't be.

That nobody else took somebody out of the organization was at least mildly surprising. There are so many tanking teams that I figured somebody would take an arm and figure they can hide him in the bullpen -- and again, the expanded rosters figure to make that easier to do.

* The Twins likewise were quiet on the free agent and trading fronts. Lots of rumors but no announcements. They did formalize the signings of Michael Pineda and Alex Avila, but those are already old news.

Derek Falvey, in a Thursday appearance on MLB Network Radio, said they were happy with the progess they made in talks with free agents and potential trade partners. Whether that's meaningful is to be seen.

We know the Twins still need to bolster their rotation. And we saw some eyebrow-raising price tags for what I described in an earlier post as "disposable" veteran starters. Martin Perez, cut loose by the Twins, signed with Boston for $6 million. Martin Perez. The Boston deal is less than the option the Twins declined last month, but still: 160 innings carries a lot of value.

* The MLB-sponsored research on the rabbit ball was ... unsatisifying. Which is probably to be expected. First off, there should always be a mistrust of research paid for by an entity that has an interest in a specific finding. MLB would much rather have us believe that it doesn't tinker with the baseballs. Surprise: That's the finding!

But secondly, even if the research is indeed completely independent and the findings unedited by the commissioner's office, there are so many variables that it's truly ludricious to point to one thing and say: That's the reason for the homers.

There is science -- physics -- behind the long balls. But there is art as well. I have heard too many veteran pitchers -- men who have held hundreds of baseballs over the years -- talk about the differences between the 2019 ball and, say, the 2014 ball to buy the notion that there has been no genuine change between them.

And the research doen't explain why using the major-league ball in Triple A last year lead to a major spike in homers at that level, while homers were flat or down at other levels.

A night of two pitchers

Wednesday's events may signal a bit of a turning point in the nascent AL Central race.

In Minnesota, Martin Perez dominated the powerful Astros lineup with eight scoreless innings. (Reliever Trevor Hildenberger allowed two runs in the ninth but the Twins won 6-2.) Perez allowed four hits and struck out seven.

Perez was so good he had ESPN analyst Rick Sutcliffe babbling about him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. That might be premature, but he was impressive -- and I am quite certain now that I was absolutely wrong this offseason when evaluating the signing. But in my defense, Perez is not the pitcher now that he was in Texas. He and the Twins have adjusted his delivery and changed his repertoire.

In Miami, Cleveland ace Corey Kluber was hit in his right forearm/elbow by a 102-mph liner. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has a non-displaced fracture of the ulna and his pitching arm is in a cast. He's to be evaluated today back in Cleveland, but it's safe to assume that he's going to be out of action for a good while.

Kluber's pitching in April wasn't up to his usual standard, but this is still a significant blow to the Indians. I don't root for injuries. I root for greatness, and "the Klubot" has been just that for five years.

The starting rotation was perceived to be Cleveland's big advantage over the Twins. But even that advantage may now be gone. It has certainly faded.

Magic number: Six

The Twins won Thursday night, but the victory is shadowed considerably by Kyle Gibson's continued struggles. As matters stand -- and time to straight him out is short -- it is difficult at best to imagine him on the postseason roster.

With Michael Pineda suspended, with Gibson ineffective, with Martin Perez spluttering, the Minnesota rotation is Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and the void.

For much of 2019, the rotation was reliable. For much of 2019, it was better than the bullpen. That has reversed now. The bullpen -- with the addition of Sergio Romo and the emergence of Tyler Duffey and Zach Littell -- is better than the rotation right now.

Berrios and Odorizzi will be conventional starters in the playoffs, of course, although Odorizzi is not an innings eater. The other games will likely be bullpen-heavy, with Perez, Lewis Thorpe, Delvin Smeltzer and perhaps Randy Dobnak going once or at most twice though the batting order.

Craig Counsell, the manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, is given to describing his pitchers' roles as "out-getters." I have more faith right now that the unproven guys -- Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe -- can get outs than in the veterans Gibson and Perez.

Thoughts from the weekend

There was some grumbling on my Twitter feed about the quick hook for Michael Pineda, who worked just four innings, allowing one hit and throwing just 40 pitches, before giving way to Martin Perez.

The complainers generally recognized that the plan coming into the game was four innings from each, in a "piggyback" arrangement designed to keep Perez, destined for a starters role, stretched out, But with Pineda faring so well, their argument went, let Perez do his extra throwing in the bullpen to imaginary hitters and let Pineda go deeper.

Were that game being played in the defunct Metrodome, I might grant that argument. But it was outdoors on a chilly if sunny day, and Pineda is in his second full season after Tommy John surgery. A quick hook for him was justified.

---

Three games for the Twins under new skipper Rocco Baldelli, three different starting catchers -- and essentially one batting order, with whoever is catching hitting eighth.

I daresay the three previous Twins skippers, dating back more than two decades, would have made a point of getting everybody on the bench a start in the opening series. Baldelli did not. Ehire Adrianza, Tyler Austin and Jake Cave all got into Sunday's game late, after it was all but decided, and each got an at-bat, and Cave pinch-ran Saturday.

And that's all the action that trio got in the Cleveland series. Each, in my estimate, is on the active roster only because of injury and the rash of off-days. None has a real purpose on the roster.

Plenty of managers -- and Tom Kelly was emphatically of this mindset, Ron Gardenhire less so -- take the approach of: If he's on the roster, I need to find a use for him. Three games in, it appears Baldelli is not interested in crimping the playing time of his regulars to get this trio some at-bats.

---

Cleveland was, and doubtless remains, the consensus pick to win the AL Central. I've grown increasingly skeptical of that in recent weeks, partly on the basis of the Tribe's unwillingness/inability to rebuild its outfield.

Cleveland played this series without middle infielders Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis, and Lindor's absence in particular took a key piece out of their puzzle. But even when Lindor and Kipnis return, this is a shallow lineup.

Assume that Lindor and Kipnis return as legitimate top-half-of-the-order hitters, something Kipnis hasn't been the past two seasons. We'll assume it as a best-case scenario anyway. That will give Cleveland some order of Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Kipnis and Carlos Santana hitting leadoff through cleanup, and that's not bad at all (again, assuming Kipnis is the Kipnis of 2013-16). But the bottom half of that lineup ... ugh.

Add in the depletion of their bullpen, and it's not pretty. The Indians have genuine strengths -- that's probably the best rotation in the majors -- and there's a force of habit at work prompting people to forget that Terry Francona doesn't have the talent on hand that he's had in the past. But this weekend displayed the Indians' genuine flaws. The Twins are better balanced, and I think they not only can win this division, they should win it.

Perez, May and Magill

A win is a win; the standings don't add or deduct for style. That said, the Twins are fortunate they were playing a bad team Tuesday, because it really was easy to see them losing that one.

Start with Martin Perez. In some ways, the lefty wasn't all that bad. He struck out seven in his five innings, and more than 62 percent of his pitches were strikes.

On the other hand, he walked three, threw a first pitch strike to only 11 of the 24 men he faced, served up a fat cutter to a top-notch slugger with two on, and kept handing the lead back to the Mariners.

Four runs in five innings is ... not a quality start. Perez hasn't had one of them since May 17. In his three starts since then, his ERA has ballooned from 2.89 to 3.97. (The Twins have gone 2-1 in those three starts anyway.)

Close the carping with Trevor May, who found himself on the mound in the ninth inning for the first time in more than a month. He created a jam right away, allowing singles to the first two Mariners hitters, and needed a generous umpire's strike call to get his first out -- after which it was pop up and fly ball and and game over.

May thus became the sixth Twin to record a save this season: Nine for Blake Parker, six for Taylor Rogers, and one each for Ryne Harper, Trevor Hildenberger, Mike Morin and May. The roleless bullpen rolls on.

The use of May as the closer du jour was a mild surprise. Rogers, clearly the Twins' best reliever, hadn't pitched since Thursday. Parker, frequently if erroneously called the Twins closer by the FSN broadcasters, hadn't pitched since Friday.

But manager Rocco Baldelli called on May for his first real save opportunity of the season.  Rogers, it turned out, was unavailable with a stiff back; if anybody inquired postgame why Parker was passed over, the reply wasn't tweeted out.

Baldelli did address Matt Magill -- who retired all three men he faced and got credit for the win -- during the televised portion of his postgame scrum, praising the righty's stuff.

It was Magill's first good outing in some time. In his previous three appearances he allowed 10 runs while getting just four outs and inflated his ERA from 1.35 to 6.60.  Those are the kind of results that got Hildenberger shipped back to Triple A, and they had me surmising a few days ago that Magill was pitching himself off the roster.

Not so. I don't know where Magill ranks in Baldelli's bullpen hierarchy these days, and that hierarchy probably changes for no discernible reason anyway, but he got the ball in the eighth inning of a one two-run game Tuesday. He clearly remains in Baldelli's mix.

More minor stuff

Less than a week before pitchers and catchers report, dozens of free agents remain on the market, and the Twins are still filling out their spring training list.

Over the weekend they announced two veteran names as minor league free agents and released a list of 20 invitees:

The #MNTwins have released their full list of 20 NRIs to Spring Training.

Lucas Duda and Adam Rosales are among the more notable names on the list. pic.twitter.com/WPTyxonQXY

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) February 9, 2019

Let's start with Lucas Duda and Adam Rosales, two players with resumes if not much else.

Rosales is a odd duck: He's never been a regular but he's been able to hang around the majors 11 seasons. To be sure, some of those 11 seasons are only partial, but still -- it is rare for a utility guy such as Rosales to last into his mid 30s. He typically doesn't stick around long (five seasons with Oakland, in two stints with two midseason trades invoved) and isn't much of a hitter. He has played more than a thousand innings each at second, third and short, and even had more than 500 at first.

I prefer Ehrie Adrianaza or Ronald Torreyes as  the backup middle infielder. Rosales apparently has a March 19 opt-out, so he may suspect that the odds of him making the opening day roster are slim.

Duda is a left-handed first baseman. His strong suit, other than a name that lends itself to parodies of "Camptown Races," is power.  He occasionally homers but doesn't do much else for you. Other than hitting lefty, he's pretty much the opposite of the retired Joe Mauer, who didn't homer frequently but did everything else well. I don't much care for first basemen in the Duda mold. I assume he too has an opt-out, and I hope he uses it.

A few other not-so-random observations about the NRI list:

* Tim Collins is a little lefty reliever who had four seasons of promise in the Kansas City bullpen when the Royals were building up to their two World Series appearances. Then he got hurt and disappeared for three seasons. He LOOGY'd for Washington last year -- 35 appearances, 22.2 innings -- and had the kind of strikeout rate he had in the K.C. days but also gave up too many homers. The Twins have plenty of lefty relief candidates, and I'm not sure that Collins is truly in the mix, but he's still only 29.

* Wilin Rosario, whose signing gave me momentary panic a week ago, is NOT an invitee. There are catchers I'm completely unfamiliar with on the list in Wynston Sawyer and Tomas Telis, and presumably Rosario is well down the depth chart. (The Twins may be more interested in him as a first baseman/DH than as a catcher.)

* Brent Rooker, who I regard as the first baseman in waiting, is an NRI -- and listed as an outfielder.

* Chase De Jong, designated for assignment to make room for Martin Perez on the 40, cleared waivers and is an invitee. I'm not high on De Jong, but I'd rather see the Twins pitch him than Perez.

* Ryan Eades, a second-round draft pick in 2013 whose minor league record does not make me eager to see him in Target Field, is an invitee as well. 

First place

Twins win. Indians lose. And the half-game margin reverses in Minnesota's favor.

The biggest thing -- other than the W -- about Tuesday's game for the Twins might have been Sam Dyson, who came off the injured list (with Cody Stashak optioned out) and threw a scoreless eighth inning.

Dyson was, at least in theory, the single biggest bullpen get of the trading deadline, but he hadn't done anything useful for the Twins before they IL'd him. If he's sound and effective, that's a big piece for the bullpen.

Or maybe the biggest thing was Martin Perez. The southpaw celebrated "International Left-handers Day" with his best start since early May -- six innings, one unearned run. It was his first quality start in almost a month.

I won't proclaim him back in form, however. He walked four with just three strikeouts and allowed six hits. He was in and out of trouble throughout his start. Of course, Ryne Harper, the first reliever of the seventh, never got out of trouble, so Perez got a non-decision.

Thoughts from the weekend

Must ... resist ... the impluse to read too much into the Detroit series. Splitting with the Tigers isn't a disaster, but it wasn't what I expected either. It was a series in mid May, or perhaps a bit earlier than mid May, with a doubleheader, and Rocco Baldelli gave the reserves a good bit of run.

A few bullet points:

* The Twins got less-than-dominant starts Saturday and Sunday. This was not really a surprise from Michael Pineda and Kohl Stewart, even if the Tigers have a notably light-hitting lineup; it says a lot about how quickly Martin Perez has risen in my esteem that his outing surprised me.

*Deeper thoughts on Pineda and Stewart in the Monday print column.

* A good bit of roster shuffling this weekend connected to the makeup doubleheader Saturday. Stewart came up to start Saturday' second game; officially he was taking the place of Perez, who was on paternity leave for the birth of his son. Tyler Duffey was the 26th man for the doubleheader and pitched a strong inning to wrap up that one.

And La Tortuga is back from the injured list. The Twins cut back to 12 pitchers after Saturday and reactivated Willians Astudillo, who caught and led off Sunday. This makes him the fourth catcher to hit leadoff in Twins history -- John Roseboro, Butch Wynegar in the past and Mitch Garver and Astudillo this year.

* I had expected that, if the Twins were to cut back to 12 pitchers, that Mike Morin would be the loser, but it was Fernando Romero instead. Baldelli,  on the radio pregame show Sunday, had an intriguing reason for that: Romero isn't getting enough regular work in the major league bullpen to develop. They want him to pitch two days in a row, to finish an inning and go back out ("up-and-down"), and those opportunities aren't there with the Twins. Or they're there, but it's the Big Four being asked to do them.

* One of those Big Four, Trevor Hildenberger, is definitely in a pitching slump, surrendering a pair of runs both Saturday and Sunday. Again, must resist the urge to overreact -- but Hildenberger has shown a tendency for bad streaks in the past.

* Miguel Sano's rehab tour of the minor leagues is near its end. He's at Triple A now and hammered a couple of doubles over the weekend (and struck out a few times too.) Meanwhile, Nelson Cruz came out of Sunday's game with a sore wrist, which is to be examined today. If Cruz has to sit a while, that probably gets Sano back on the roster without bouncing either Jake Cave or Ehire Adrianza, and opens up a lineup slot as well.

Roster moves

The Twins made a number of notable moves Monday. One made official what was already known, some were expected and none was truly startling.

The biggest news involved the starting rotation.

The Twins declined their option on Martin Perez, making the veteran lefty a free agent. I thought they might opt to keep him around as an innings eater at the back of the rotation, but they will go in a different direction.

They made a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi but not to Kyle Gibson or Michael Pineda. This presents a significant obstacle to Odorizzi on the free-agent market. I rather suspect he'll wind up taking the QO, which is a one-year deal for something around $17.8 million, and know that he'll be unrestricted after the 2020 season.

If he does take the offer, that's two rotation slots filled, three to go. He has until next Monday to decide.

Odorizzi is an effective but limited starter. He's not an innings-eating horse. In 2019, as an all-star having his best season to date, he didn't reach the 162 innings required to qualify for the ERA title. Perez, while far less effective, threw more innings. So I was mildly surprised that the front office made the QO.

It's not surprising that Gibson and Pineda didn't get QOs. Gibson's health issues and Pineda's lingering suspension were good reasons not to go there. I can imagine the Twins bringing one of them back, but not both. 

Also on the pitching line, the Twins parted ways with Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves, a pair of prominent draft picks who never quite forced their way into the Twins plans. They were taken out of high school in 2013, Stewart in the first round (fourth overall) and Gonsalves in the fourth, but they've been leapfrogged by other prospects.

Gonsalves, who had injury issues and seldom pitched in 2019, was claimed off waivers by the New York Mets, and Stewart opted for free agency after the Twins outrighted him.

The Twins also officially exercised their 2020 option on Nelson Cruz. One can debate the wisdom of any of the other moves and non-moves of Monday, but not this one.

Magic number: Three

My wife and I scooted up to Target Field for the home finale, where I enjoyed a bratwurst with kraut and some bombas from Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz. And where I chafed at way too many walks late in the game.

Martin Perez started for the Twins. The lefty, I noted at the start, was just 14 outs away from the 162 it takes to qualify for the ERA title. Well, he's only got seven of those outs, so he's still short of that accomplishment, and I'm really not sure what to make of his season.

The good: He's 10-7 and set a career high in strikeouts. He's stayed healthy enough to pitch (no stints on the injured list.) His strikeout-to-walk ratio and his strikeout rate are career bests.

The bad: His ERA inflated to 5.13 Sunday. He hasn't gotten an out after the sixth inning since June. He has just 10 quality starts in his 27 starts.

The Twins have a contract option on him, and I have assumed all season that unless injury strikes they will bring him back for 2020. I'm not so sure that will happen.

The Twins staked him to a 6-0 lead in the first inning, and he strove mightily to give that lead back. I'm quite sure Rocco Baldelli didn't want to yank him in the third inning, but Perez really gave him no choice. He never walked anybody, but he didn't miss any bats either.

Which led to the walkfest late. Baldelli burned through Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May just to get through the sixth inning. Then it was Cody Stashak for the seventh and Brusdar Graterol for the eighth as the Twins opened the margin.

Those five relievers got 17 outs, 11 on strikeouts, with both Duffey and Graterol fanning all three men they faced. They allowed one run, and it was unearned (yet another throwing error by Jorge Polanco.)

For that matter, the Twins bullpen struck out three more men in the ninth, but Fernando Romero and Sergio Romo walked five also. That was a really long and boring inning -- eight hitters, none of whom put a ball in play. Baseball fever 2019 -- Catch it.

Rotating the rotation

I say it frequently here: Bullpens are always a work in progress. Nobody should expect a bullpen to feature the same arms in the same roles throughout the season.

Starting rotations are, ideally, a different story. Teams with strong starting pitching generally have stable rotations. They can trot the same three or four or five guys out for the first inning in September as they did in April.

And having written that sentence, I begin to doubt its accuracy in the baseball of the second decade of the 21st century. The 35-start pitcher is extinct today; the 200-inning pitcher has become a rarity. The Houston Astros won the 2017 World Series; nobody even met the 162-inning mark to qualify for the ERA title for them (I exclude Justin Verlander, who did most of his pitching for Detroit).

The stable rotation is definitely a plus; it is not a necessity, not in an era of openers, bullpen games and roster shuffles.

The Twins in 2019 got 120 starts from its four most-used starters, 146 from its top five (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez and Michael Pineda). That leaves just 16 starts for everybody else, and that's about as stable as it gets. But even that rotation was falling apart by season's end, with Pineda suspended, Gibson ailing and Perez ineffective.

The 2020 Twins know their rotation won't be as stable. They're planning on a transition. They know Pineda and free-agent signee Rich Hill won't be there at the start. Hill can, seriously, be viewed right now as a trade-deadline acquisition, a reasonable ETA is the second half of July,

April's rotation will have Berrios, Odorizzi, Homer Bailey and a prospect to be selected in spring training. Remember, the Twins last year went several weeks using a four-man rotation, what with scheduled off-days and postponements. They may well not need a true fifth starter until Pineda finishes his suspension.

So ... Pineda arrives in May, and slots in somewhere amid Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey and the fifth guy. Hill arrives in July. Whose spot does he take?

It's a question without a definitive answer in January. Maybe somebody will be hurt. Maybe somebody will be ineffective. Maybe the rookie starter will be brushing up against some innings limitations. And maybe Hill won't be ready to roll then either. All these things are possible, and that at least one of them happens is probably probable, if probably probable makes sense.

Some notable cuts

The Twins trimmed their major league camp roster a bit more Friday, and they narrowed their opening bullpen options significantly.

First they optioned out youngster Fernando Romero, once a prized starting prospect and now a prized relief prospect. I had put him in the "Is there room" category a while back. The answer, even as some injury issues arise among the bullpen candidates, is apparently "no." He'll be up at some point. But he hasn't been kicking the door down, and it makes sense to give him some minor league time as a reliever.

Then they released a pair of veteran non-roster invitees, infielder Adam Rosales and lefty reliever Tim Collins, both of whom presumably had opt-out clauses.

Rosales hit well in camp, with four homers. But the 35-year-old's chances of making the roster were more about other people than about himself. There weren't enough injuries to make him useful.

Collins is the more surprising release. His stuff has drawn positive reviews, even though his Grapefruit League ERA (4.91) isn't impressive, and in-house lefty Gabriel Moya hasn't pitched in more than a week with reported shoulder issues. I thought Collins had a chance.

But even if Moya can't go on March 28, the bullpen still figures to have Taylor Rogers and Aldaberto Mejia as lefties. Plus there is chatter that, with a bevy of offdays in the first few week, the Twins will open with 11 pitchers rather than their usual 12 or 13, with No. 5 starter Martin Perez shifting temporarily to the pen. He would be a third southpaw. Presumably the Twins hope/expect Moya to be ready by the time Perez returns to starting duties.

Collins had less opportunity than it appeared a few days ago.

Notes from the weekend

The Twins didn't exactly dominate the Royals over the weekend, but they won two of three and had plenty of baserunners in the Sunday loss. It wouldn't have taken much more at the plate or in the field to flip that result.

Sunday's loss puts the Twins at 47-23 -- still, by percentage points, the best record in the American League and 10 games ahead of the second-place Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Minnesota's magic number is 83.

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Weekend roster move: Fernando Romero back down to Triple A after a poor outing on Friday, Zach Littell back up. Just another round of bullpen musical chairs.

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The Joe Mauer tribute weekend appears to have gone well. I took note of this Twitter exchange:

I predict he’ll be voted in. His 10 years as a catcher are enough https://t.co/jQVNwELlEh

— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) June 15, 2019

My recollection from the past is that Neal has been a bit cool about Mauer's Hall of Fame chances. I suspect he's heard support for Mauer from enough BBWAA colleagues in the past few months. Mauer has long been more highly regarded outside his home market than in, something I blame on KFAN and a couple of dunderheaded metro columnists.

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You may have noticed Martin Maldonado, the Kansas City catcher, wearing a blue tie over his chest protector Sunday. (The names he wrote on it are those of his father, brother and friends, presumably all fathers.) He wasn't the only one. Einar Diaz of Pittsburgh -- who entered his game late -- had one also. And down in Rochester, Willians Astudillo:

Here’s Willians Astudillo wearing a tie at work.

Enjoy... pic.twitter.com/ewwQQVu5kx

— Morrie Silver (@MorrieSilver8) June 16, 2019

All the same solid light blue with an identical logo.

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Plenty of rumors Sunday about one particular potential Twins trade target, Madison Bumgarner. 

I don't think a starting pitcher is as big a need for the Twins as is the bullpen, and I doubt that either Martin Perez or Michael Pineda are good bullpen candidates. Bumgarner is certainly a name, but his pitching the past few years hasn't matched his reputation. There is a theory that getting out of the morass the Giants are stuck in and onto a team with October ambitions will fan his competitive fires.

Bumgarner's a free agent after the season, and he's expected to be dealt. We'll see, obviously, where he lands.

A hot streak

Last four games, #MNTwins vs. opponents.

Runs: 26-1
Hits: 45-14
Errors: 0-4

— Dave Campbell (@DaveCampbellAP) May 11, 2019

Twins have outscored opponents 26-1 over 4 games. They are the 1st team in last 4 seasons to allow no more than 1 run over 4-game span. The last team to scored 26+ runs over 4-game span while allowing 1 or fewer was the Twins in 2004 (July 5-8: scored 32, allowed 1).@EliasSports

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) May 11, 2019

Well, yeah. We'll see what happens today, with Michael Pineda and Kohl Stewart starting the two ends of the doubleheader. And for that matter, Martin Perez, slated for Sunday's start, went on paternity leave Friday, so the Twins might be reaching for somebody to work that one as well.

But if there's a team to be working your organizational pitching depth against, it's probably the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera -- he of one homer and a sub-.400 slugging percentage so far in 2019 -- recently explained his lack of power production on the weak hitters surrounding him.

Ron Gardenhire is trotting out a light-hitting lineup, dead last in the AL in runs scored so far. But Cabrera, who turned 36 last month, ain't what he once was either.

None of this is to be dismissive of Jake Odorizzi's outing Friday -- one hit in seven innings. He now has a 20-inning scoreless streak going, which would be impressive if it all came against the Tigers. He's done this against better lineups too.

Zack Littell and the pitching inventory

Zach Littell is currently a member of the Twins bullpen, but pretty clearly the eighth man. He pitched two innings on May 24, and has been idle since. If the Twins decide to cut back to 12 pitchers as Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver come off the injured list, Littell's job is in jeopardy.

Littell's projected major league role has dwindled since the Twins got him in July 2017 from the Yankees for Jamie Garcia. At the time he was pitching in Double A and having a superb season (he finsihed 19-1, 2.12, for three teams at two levels). While nobody was being wowed with his stuff, it was easy to be impressed by the results. A middle-to-back of the rotation future seemed quite possible.

By late last season he was being described by then-manager Paul Molitor as a candidate to be used with an opener -- good enough, by implication, to work twice through the order but not really good enough to be a traditional starter. And indeed, he was used as a bulk inning guy several times last September.

Now he's a reliever, although it's not really clear that this is a permanent move, as with Tyler Duffey and Fernando Romero. Unlike the latter two, Littell was mostly starting for the Redwings in Triple A before his call-up. Indeed, to the degree that one can deduce the Rochester starting rotation, he's been one of the cornerstones of that rotation, along with Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe. Thorpe has nine starts, Littell and Stewart seven apiece. Nobody else has more than four, and one of them is Devin Smeltzer, who started the season in Double A.

The Twins this year have had a pretty durable major league rotation, even if Michael Pineda is currently on the shelf. They've only had three starts go to somebody other than the five starters who came out of spring training (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Pineda and Martin Perez) -- two by Stewart and one by Smeltzer.

I heard Thad Levine, the general manager, talking on the radio pregame show Sunday about "lines of defense" -- the reinforcments already in the organization. Smeltzer probably wasn't seriously viewed as part of that during the offseason; Stephen Gonsalves was. But Gonsalves has barely pitched this year, and Smeltzer's stock has certainly risen.

I see more reason for optimism about the starters who are or have been in Double-A Pensacola this year -- Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, Griffin Jax, Bursdar Graterol (now sidelined with a shoulder issue) -- than with the guys who've been in Triple A or the majors -- Stewart, Littell, Thorpe and Chase DeJong.

That Littell is sitting in the major league bullpen without much to do suggests to me that he's not prominent on the rotation depth chart these days.

That didn't go well

On Thursday morning I posted some (more so than usual) incoherent ramblings about Zach Littell. On Thursday evening he got to pitch for the first time in almost a week.

Neither went particularly well, Some 24 hours after I composed that post, I'm still not sure what the point was. Littell's outing yielded one positive: The meaningful pieces of the Twins bullpen were undisturbed by Martin Perez's poor start. Littell got rocked for 10 hits and eight earned runs, but he got 13 outs, and the Twins needed to use just one other reliever (Mike Morin for one inning).

That is, basically, Littell's role: Eat unimportant innings and try to pitch well enough to earn some important ones. Part one he did. Part two he didn't. I won't be shocked if the ultimate outcome for him is a return to Triple A Rochester; he's certainly not going to be called on again in the Tampa Bay series.

Bomba. bomba, bomba

Thursday night was a rather stereotypical 2019 Twins win: Three homers, a sneaky good start, and two innings from Taylor Rogers.

Kyle Gibson went seven innings against Oakland -- six hits, no walks, seven strikeouts and 73 strikes out of 106 pitches. The three runs allowed were the least impressive part of his stat line. Sneaky good.

I made this point. or tried to, earlier this week during a segment on KMSU radio: The Twins interest in a trade for a starting pitcher should be limited to a starter capable of moving Gibson down a rung in the playoff rotation. I'm not sure that starter is going to be on the market, and if he is, at a price the Twins will be willing to pay.

The Twins don't need the kind of starter who has moved so far (Andrew Cashner and Homer Bailey). Those are back-of-the-rotation guys, and the Twins have Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. And Gibson is now 9-4, 4.02 with more strikeouts than innings pitched. That ain't shabby.

Another point I made Monday that probably bears repeating: I said the Twins were likely to see their lead, then 6.5 games, shrink a bit in July. The Twins have a rougher schedule than Cleveland the rest of this month. But that reverses in August.