Roster moves

The Twins made a number of notable moves Monday. One made official what was already known, some were expected and none was truly startling.

The biggest news involved the starting rotation.

The Twins declined their option on Martin Perez, making the veteran lefty a free agent. I thought they might opt to keep him around as an innings eater at the back of the rotation, but they will go in a different direction.

They made a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi but not to Kyle Gibson or Michael Pineda. This presents a significant obstacle to Odorizzi on the free-agent market. I rather suspect he'll wind up taking the QO, which is a one-year deal for something around $17.8 million, and know that he'll be unrestricted after the 2020 season.

If he does take the offer, that's two rotation slots filled, three to go. He has until next Monday to decide.

Odorizzi is an effective but limited starter. He's not an innings-eating horse. In 2019, as an all-star having his best season to date, he didn't reach the 162 innings required to qualify for the ERA title. Perez, while far less effective, threw more innings. So I was mildly surprised that the front office made the QO.

It's not surprising that Gibson and Pineda didn't get QOs. Gibson's health issues and Pineda's lingering suspension were good reasons not to go there. I can imagine the Twins bringing one of them back, but not both. 

Also on the pitching line, the Twins parted ways with Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves, a pair of prominent draft picks who never quite forced their way into the Twins plans. They were taken out of high school in 2013, Stewart in the first round (fourth overall) and Gonsalves in the fourth, but they've been leapfrogged by other prospects.

Gonsalves, who had injury issues and seldom pitched in 2019, was claimed off waivers by the New York Mets, and Stewart opted for free agency after the Twins outrighted him.

The Twins also officially exercised their 2020 option on Nelson Cruz. One can debate the wisdom of any of the other moves and non-moves of Monday, but not this one.

Where they stand: Designated hitter

Presumed regular: Nelson Cruz

Others on 40: Pretty much any position player could be a DH, but the spirit of this is to identify possible Plan Bs. So I'll list Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron and Tyler Austin, assuming the latter isn't the playing coming off the roster to make room for Cruz.

Nonroster notables: Brent Rooker.

The Twins made the free agent signing of Cruz official Wednesday, although they have not yet announced who is coming off the 40-man roster for make room for the veteran slugger, saying they had been unable to reach the player to notify him.

Cruz is old -- turns 39 in July -- but he remains a elite slugger:

Here’s how Nelson Cruz ranked among MLB players in 2018.

Barrel % - Top 4% of MLB
Exit Velocity - Top 1% of MLB
XSLG - Top 3% of MLB
XWOBA - Top 3% of MLB
Hard Hit % - Top 1% of MLB#MNTwins

— Morrie Silver (@MorrieSilver8) January 2, 2019

Some of those categories are self-explanatory, some are not. But even if I don't know what XWOBA means, it's pretty obvious that Cruz's dip in batting average last season masks the reality that he still hits the ball hard more often than almost anybody else in baseball -- and hitting the ball hard with frequency is a very good sign.

I don't take Rocco Baldelli's talk about giving Cruz some outfield time very seriously. He wasn't a good outfielder when he was young, and he ain't getting better with age.

The Twins on Wednesday made a point of extolling Cruz as a teammate and role model for younger Latin players (meaning Miguel Sano). Which, OK. I'm hesitant to embrace anybody who served a suspension for steroids as a great example, even if he never tested positive. (Cruz was tangled up in the Biogenesis scandal in 2013.)

Beyond that, I'm reminded of Crash Davis's retort in "Bull Durham" when the manager tells him why he's been assigned to this high A ball team: "You don't want a ballplayer, you want a stable pony." 

Nelson Cruz is here to hit taters and chew bubble gum, and he's fresh out of bubble gum. Anything else is a bonus.

Cruz control

Plenty of reports Thursday that Nelson Cruz has agreed to a one-year contract with club option with the Twins. While the Twins have yet to officially announce the free-agent signing, Cruz has changed his Twitter avatar to an image of himself at bat wearing a Twins jersey and helmet.

Taken as an individual move, I have no real quarrel with this. Cruz is 38 -- turns 39 in July -- so there is a risk, but he has shown little falloff as he ages. In his four seasons with the Mariners, "Boomstick" has hit between 44 and 37 homers each year. And that production, as you probably know, came in one of the more difficult hitting environments in the game.

Yeah, Cruz can hit. He's pretty much useless afield or on the bases, but he's going to be the DH and he is a legitimate force in the middle of a lineup. As long as they don't try to force him into the outfield ala Josh Willingham, he'll help.

But I continue to be uneasy with the organization's offseason trend away from on-base percentage. The Twins have added three right-handed thumpers in Cruz, second baseman Jonathan Schoop and first baseman C.J. Cron. They all have power and they all swing and miss a lot. Cruz's on-base percentages with the M's were better than they had been with Baltimore or Texas, but on the whole, this lineup looks like the goal is to lead the league in solo homers. That is NOT a productive offense.

That said, the reality is that Cron, Schoop and even Cruz aren't the keys to the Twins 2019 lineup. The Twins will rise or recede on Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. If two of those three play at an All-Star level, the Twins are serious contenders. 

They have the talent to do that; they don't have the track record of doing that. But if two -- or better yet, all three -- turn into the players we've been dreaming on for five years or so, then a supporting cast of Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Schoop, Cron and Jason Castro makes for a dangerous and deep lineup even with their flaws.

If Schoop, Cron and Castro hit 7-8-9, things are good. If either Schoop and Cron wind up in the first five spots of the order, it's going to be another disappointing season.

Take the money and run

Michael Cuddyer
was limited to 205
plate appearances
in 2014, but he got
a qualifying offer.

Monday was the deadline for teams to extend qualifying offers to their free agents. This was only a theoretical issue for the Twins, as their only free agent at this point is Jared Burton, and he's a free agent because the Twins declined to pick up his option, which was a fraction of the $15.3 million price tag for a QO.

In all, 12 players were extended qualifying offers, which is a tick above average (a total of 22 offers in the first two years of this system). No player accepted the qualifying offer the past two winters, but I expect at least one will this year.

Old friend Michael Cuddyer should. Emphatically so. That the Rockies made the offer astounded many outside observers. Cuddyer will turn 36 before Opening Day, he's started to have some injury issues, his defensive abilities have declined ... and the qualifying offer means a team will have to surrender a high draft pick to sign him.

I don't think that's happening. Cuddy should learn from the experience of Kendrys Morales, Nelson Cruz and Stephen Drew last year and take the QO. The down side: He's guaranteed $15.3 million. I wish I had a bad choice that would be that rewarding.

Who else would be well advised to take the money and run? In my view:

• Cruz got burned last year; he turned down Texas' QO and wound up with a one year deal in Baltimore for a bit more than half the Texas offer. He led the majors in homers, true, but he's still the same player who couldn't find a market last winter. 
• David Robertson is a closer. Yeah, he had a good season for the Yankees. Few teams are eager to commit that much money to a ninth-inning guy, much less surrender a draft pick for the privilege. 
• Francisco Liriano is an interesting case. He's had two good years for Pittsburgh. But has that erased his reputation for inconsistency? Are teams willing to commit dollars and years to him -- and give up that draft pick to boot? And even if there is a market, Liriano might be better off sticking in a place he's been successful. This is a more difficult call, frankly, than Cuddyer, Cruz and Robertson. 

The other eight ... well, I don't think any of them are likely to accept, although I suspect that some will find the market less welcoming than they expect. 

Josh Willingham and Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz's venture into free agency
wasn't as lucrative as he expected.

Earlier this month I cited Nelson Cruz's free agency travails in discussing why the trade market for Josh Willingham might be limited this summer.

At that point, Cruz was still on the market. Last week, Cruz signed a one-year deal, worth (depending on bonuses) between $8 million and $9 million, with the Baltimore Orioles. Cruz had at the start of the free agent season rejected Texas' qualifying offer of $14.1 million for one year, but he clearly overestimated his appeal to the market.

Now, Willingham and Cruz aren't perfect matches. Cruz is two years younger. His home run production has been more consistent than Willingham's. Cruz has also spent his career in much more hitter-friendly home parks than Willingham has; Willingham draws more walks and thus has a higher on-base percentage, and, of course, Cruz served a 50-game suspension last year because of his involvement in the Biogensis PED scandal.

Still, the two have a similar skill set: Slow right-handed sluggers with little defensive value.

Willingham is to get $7 million this year. The Orioles are not only paying Cruz more than that, they surrendered their second-round draft pick when they signed him. (It would have been their first-rounder, but they gave that up earlier when they signed Ubaldo Jimenez.)

I don't know what the Twins would be offered if they tried to shop the Hammer around right now. I rather doubt it would be the equivalent of a second-round pick. (In baseball, of course, there is no trading of draft picks.)

But from here, Willingham looks like the better player, and certainly the better contract.

A poor slide by Nelson Cruz

Nelson Cruz makes a poor sliding decison.

The TBS booth has two old pitchers and a "real" broadcaster, none of whom noted the real problem with Nelson Cruz' failed attempt to score on a CC Sabathia pitch to the backstop to end the first inning.

Cruz slid to the inside of the plate, not to the outside. Had he executed what Twins fans of a certain age will always think of as the Randy Bush slide -- sliding far to the outside and reaching out with the fingers to touch the plate -- there's no way Captain Cheeseburger can make the tag. Even with the bad slide, Sabathia barely got there in time.

Postscript: That run Cruz didn't score mattered. The Yankees win 6-5.