I say it frequently here: Bullpens are always a work in progress. Nobody should expect a bullpen to feature the same arms in the same roles throughout the season.
Starting rotations are, ideally, a different story. Teams with strong starting pitching generally have stable rotations. They can trot the same three or four or five guys out for the first inning in September as they did in April.
And having written that sentence, I begin to doubt its accuracy in the baseball of the second decade of the 21st century. The 35-start pitcher is extinct today; the 200-inning pitcher has become a rarity. The Houston Astros won the 2017 World Series; nobody even met the 162-inning mark to qualify for the ERA title for them (I exclude Justin Verlander, who did most of his pitching for Detroit).
The stable rotation is definitely a plus; it is not a necessity, not in an era of openers, bullpen games and roster shuffles.
The Twins in 2019 got 120 starts from its four most-used starters, 146 from its top five (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez and Michael Pineda). That leaves just 16 starts for everybody else, and that's about as stable as it gets. But even that rotation was falling apart by season's end, with Pineda suspended, Gibson ailing and Perez ineffective.
The 2020 Twins know their rotation won't be as stable. They're planning on a transition. They know Pineda and free-agent signee Rich Hill won't be there at the start. Hill can, seriously, be viewed right now as a trade-deadline acquisition, a reasonable ETA is the second half of July,
April's rotation will have Berrios, Odorizzi, Homer Bailey and a prospect to be selected in spring training. Remember, the Twins last year went several weeks using a four-man rotation, what with scheduled off-days and postponements. They may well not need a true fifth starter until Pineda finishes his suspension.
So ... Pineda arrives in May, and slots in somewhere amid Berrios, Odorizzi, Bailey and the fifth guy. Hill arrives in July. Whose spot does he take?
It's a question without a definitive answer in January. Maybe somebody will be hurt. Maybe somebody will be ineffective. Maybe the rookie starter will be brushing up against some innings limitations. And maybe Hill won't be ready to roll then either. All these things are possible, and that at least one of them happens is probably probable, if probably probable makes sense.
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Thursday, January 2, 2020
Friday, December 13, 2019
Random winter meeting takeaways
*The Twins neither took nor made a selection in the Rule 5 draft, which essentially closes baseball's annual winter meetings.
That they skipped making a pick was no surprise. They're not eager to devote a roster spot to a developmental project, even with 26-man rosters next year. And they shouldn't be.
That nobody else took somebody out of the organization was at least mildly surprising. There are so many tanking teams that I figured somebody would take an arm and figure they can hide him in the bullpen -- and again, the expanded rosters figure to make that easier to do.
* The Twins likewise were quiet on the free agent and trading fronts. Lots of rumors but no announcements. They did formalize the signings of Michael Pineda and Alex Avila, but those are already old news.
Derek Falvey, in a Thursday appearance on MLB Network Radio, said they were happy with the progess they made in talks with free agents and potential trade partners. Whether that's meaningful is to be seen.
We know the Twins still need to bolster their rotation. And we saw some eyebrow-raising price tags for what I described in an earlier post as "disposable" veteran starters. Martin Perez, cut loose by the Twins, signed with Boston for $6 million. Martin Perez. The Boston deal is less than the option the Twins declined last month, but still: 160 innings carries a lot of value.
* The MLB-sponsored research on the rabbit ball was ... unsatisifying. Which is probably to be expected. First off, there should always be a mistrust of research paid for by an entity that has an interest in a specific finding. MLB would much rather have us believe that it doesn't tinker with the baseballs. Surprise: That's the finding!
But secondly, even if the research is indeed completely independent and the findings unedited by the commissioner's office, there are so many variables that it's truly ludricious to point to one thing and say: That's the reason for the homers.
There is science -- physics -- behind the long balls. But there is art as well. I have heard too many veteran pitchers -- men who have held hundreds of baseballs over the years -- talk about the differences between the 2019 ball and, say, the 2014 ball to buy the notion that there has been no genuine change between them.
And the research doen't explain why using the major-league ball in Triple A last year lead to a major spike in homers at that level, while homers were flat or down at other levels.
That they skipped making a pick was no surprise. They're not eager to devote a roster spot to a developmental project, even with 26-man rosters next year. And they shouldn't be.
That nobody else took somebody out of the organization was at least mildly surprising. There are so many tanking teams that I figured somebody would take an arm and figure they can hide him in the bullpen -- and again, the expanded rosters figure to make that easier to do.
* The Twins likewise were quiet on the free agent and trading fronts. Lots of rumors but no announcements. They did formalize the signings of Michael Pineda and Alex Avila, but those are already old news.
Derek Falvey, in a Thursday appearance on MLB Network Radio, said they were happy with the progess they made in talks with free agents and potential trade partners. Whether that's meaningful is to be seen.
We know the Twins still need to bolster their rotation. And we saw some eyebrow-raising price tags for what I described in an earlier post as "disposable" veteran starters. Martin Perez, cut loose by the Twins, signed with Boston for $6 million. Martin Perez. The Boston deal is less than the option the Twins declined last month, but still: 160 innings carries a lot of value.
* The MLB-sponsored research on the rabbit ball was ... unsatisifying. Which is probably to be expected. First off, there should always be a mistrust of research paid for by an entity that has an interest in a specific finding. MLB would much rather have us believe that it doesn't tinker with the baseballs. Surprise: That's the finding!
But secondly, even if the research is indeed completely independent and the findings unedited by the commissioner's office, there are so many variables that it's truly ludricious to point to one thing and say: That's the reason for the homers.
There is science -- physics -- behind the long balls. But there is art as well. I have heard too many veteran pitchers -- men who have held hundreds of baseballs over the years -- talk about the differences between the 2019 ball and, say, the 2014 ball to buy the notion that there has been no genuine change between them.
And the research doen't explain why using the major-league ball in Triple A last year lead to a major spike in homers at that level, while homers were flat or down at other levels.
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
Talking rotation
Derek Falvey at the winter meetings Monday:
Clear as mud, right? Presumably the Twins rotation now looks like
Except that we know Pineda's not pitching in April. He's got the rest of his suspension to serve yet. So maybe Falvey means the "early in the season" rotation projects as:
That's an approach I can see Falvine taking here. So yet another potential meaning of Falvey's quote:
No. 3 in that scenario would, ideally, be somebody along the lines of Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu -- somebody they're counting on to be a season-long starter. No. 4 would be a different matter.
Theoretically, of course, the veteran placeholder could do well enough to remain in place (as Martin Perez did last season), but that would probably mean that none of the prospects are faring well, and I think that's unlikely. They won't all emerge, but they won't all fail either.
Falvey:
"I think it's highly likely that one of Dobnak, Thorpe,
Smeltzer, that group of guys, is going to be pitching for us early in
the season as part of our rotation barring, obviously, injury.
That's likely, but we don't want to put too much strain
on a lot of that group."1/2
— Betsy Helfand
(@betsyhelfand) December
10, 2019
Clear as mud, right? Presumably the Twins rotation now looks like
- Jose Berrios
- Jake Odorizzi
- Michael Pineda
- (veteran to be acquired)
- (rookie to emerge)
Except that we know Pineda's not pitching in April. He's got the rest of his suspension to serve yet. So maybe Falvey means the "early in the season" rotation projects as:
- Berrios
- Odorizzi
- (veteran to be acquired)
- (veteran to be acquired)
- (rookie placeholder for Pineda)
That's an approach I can see Falvine taking here. So yet another potential meaning of Falvey's quote:
- Berrios
- Odorizzi
- (veteran to be acquired)
- (veteran placeholder for Pineda)
- (rookie to emerge)
No. 3 in that scenario would, ideally, be somebody along the lines of Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu -- somebody they're counting on to be a season-long starter. No. 4 would be a different matter.
Theoretically, of course, the veteran placeholder could do well enough to remain in place (as Martin Perez did last season), but that would probably mean that none of the prospects are faring well, and I think that's unlikely. They won't all emerge, but they won't all fail either.
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Roster moves
The Twins made a number of notable moves Monday. One made official what was already known, some were expected and none was truly startling.
The biggest news involved the starting rotation.
The Twins declined their option on Martin Perez, making the veteran lefty a free agent. I thought they might opt to keep him around as an innings eater at the back of the rotation, but they will go in a different direction.
They made a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi but not to Kyle Gibson or Michael Pineda. This presents a significant obstacle to Odorizzi on the free-agent market. I rather suspect he'll wind up taking the QO, which is a one-year deal for something around $17.8 million, and know that he'll be unrestricted after the 2020 season.
If he does take the offer, that's two rotation slots filled, three to go. He has until next Monday to decide.
Odorizzi is an effective but limited starter. He's not an innings-eating horse. In 2019, as an all-star having his best season to date, he didn't reach the 162 innings required to qualify for the ERA title. Perez, while far less effective, threw more innings. So I was mildly surprised that the front office made the QO.
It's not surprising that Gibson and Pineda didn't get QOs. Gibson's health issues and Pineda's lingering suspension were good reasons not to go there. I can imagine the Twins bringing one of them back, but not both.
Also on the pitching line, the Twins parted ways with Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves, a pair of prominent draft picks who never quite forced their way into the Twins plans. They were taken out of high school in 2013, Stewart in the first round (fourth overall) and Gonsalves in the fourth, but they've been leapfrogged by other prospects.
Gonsalves, who had injury issues and seldom pitched in 2019, was claimed off waivers by the New York Mets, and Stewart opted for free agency after the Twins outrighted him.
The Twins also officially exercised their 2020 option on Nelson Cruz. One can debate the wisdom of any of the other moves and non-moves of Monday, but not this one.
The biggest news involved the starting rotation.
The Twins declined their option on Martin Perez, making the veteran lefty a free agent. I thought they might opt to keep him around as an innings eater at the back of the rotation, but they will go in a different direction.
They made a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi but not to Kyle Gibson or Michael Pineda. This presents a significant obstacle to Odorizzi on the free-agent market. I rather suspect he'll wind up taking the QO, which is a one-year deal for something around $17.8 million, and know that he'll be unrestricted after the 2020 season.
If he does take the offer, that's two rotation slots filled, three to go. He has until next Monday to decide.
Odorizzi is an effective but limited starter. He's not an innings-eating horse. In 2019, as an all-star having his best season to date, he didn't reach the 162 innings required to qualify for the ERA title. Perez, while far less effective, threw more innings. So I was mildly surprised that the front office made the QO.
It's not surprising that Gibson and Pineda didn't get QOs. Gibson's health issues and Pineda's lingering suspension were good reasons not to go there. I can imagine the Twins bringing one of them back, but not both.
Also on the pitching line, the Twins parted ways with Kohl Stewart and Stephen Gonsalves, a pair of prominent draft picks who never quite forced their way into the Twins plans. They were taken out of high school in 2013, Stewart in the first round (fourth overall) and Gonsalves in the fourth, but they've been leapfrogged by other prospects.
Gonsalves, who had injury issues and seldom pitched in 2019, was claimed off waivers by the New York Mets, and Stewart opted for free agency after the Twins outrighted him.
The Twins also officially exercised their 2020 option on Nelson Cruz. One can debate the wisdom of any of the other moves and non-moves of Monday, but not this one.
Monday, September 23, 2019
Magic number: Three
My wife and I scooted up to Target Field for the home finale, where I enjoyed a bratwurst with kraut and some bombas from Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz. And where I chafed at way too many walks late in the game.
Martin Perez started for the Twins. The lefty, I noted at the start, was just 14 outs away from the 162 it takes to qualify for the ERA title. Well, he's only got seven of those outs, so he's still short of that accomplishment, and I'm really not sure what to make of his season.
The good: He's 10-7 and set a career high in strikeouts. He's stayed healthy enough to pitch (no stints on the injured list.) His strikeout-to-walk ratio and his strikeout rate are career bests.
The bad: His ERA inflated to 5.13 Sunday. He hasn't gotten an out after the sixth inning since June. He has just 10 quality starts in his 27 starts.
The Twins have a contract option on him, and I have assumed all season that unless injury strikes they will bring him back for 2020. I'm not so sure that will happen.
The Twins staked him to a 6-0 lead in the first inning, and he strove mightily to give that lead back. I'm quite sure Rocco Baldelli didn't want to yank him in the third inning, but Perez really gave him no choice. He never walked anybody, but he didn't miss any bats either.
Which led to the walkfest late. Baldelli burned through Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May just to get through the sixth inning. Then it was Cody Stashak for the seventh and Brusdar Graterol for the eighth as the Twins opened the margin.
Those five relievers got 17 outs, 11 on strikeouts, with both Duffey and Graterol fanning all three men they faced. They allowed one run, and it was unearned (yet another throwing error by Jorge Polanco.)
For that matter, the Twins bullpen struck out three more men in the ninth, but Fernando Romero and Sergio Romo walked five also. That was a really long and boring inning -- eight hitters, none of whom put a ball in play. Baseball fever 2019 -- Catch it.
Martin Perez started for the Twins. The lefty, I noted at the start, was just 14 outs away from the 162 it takes to qualify for the ERA title. Well, he's only got seven of those outs, so he's still short of that accomplishment, and I'm really not sure what to make of his season.
The good: He's 10-7 and set a career high in strikeouts. He's stayed healthy enough to pitch (no stints on the injured list.) His strikeout-to-walk ratio and his strikeout rate are career bests.
The bad: His ERA inflated to 5.13 Sunday. He hasn't gotten an out after the sixth inning since June. He has just 10 quality starts in his 27 starts.
The Twins have a contract option on him, and I have assumed all season that unless injury strikes they will bring him back for 2020. I'm not so sure that will happen.
The Twins staked him to a 6-0 lead in the first inning, and he strove mightily to give that lead back. I'm quite sure Rocco Baldelli didn't want to yank him in the third inning, but Perez really gave him no choice. He never walked anybody, but he didn't miss any bats either.
Which led to the walkfest late. Baldelli burned through Zack Littell, Tyler Duffey and Trevor May just to get through the sixth inning. Then it was Cody Stashak for the seventh and Brusdar Graterol for the eighth as the Twins opened the margin.
Those five relievers got 17 outs, 11 on strikeouts, with both Duffey and Graterol fanning all three men they faced. They allowed one run, and it was unearned (yet another throwing error by Jorge Polanco.)
For that matter, the Twins bullpen struck out three more men in the ninth, but Fernando Romero and Sergio Romo walked five also. That was a really long and boring inning -- eight hitters, none of whom put a ball in play. Baseball fever 2019 -- Catch it.
Friday, September 20, 2019
Magic number: Six
The Twins won Thursday night, but the victory is shadowed considerably by Kyle Gibson's continued struggles. As matters stand -- and time to straight him out is short -- it is difficult at best to imagine him on the postseason roster.
With Michael Pineda suspended, with Gibson ineffective, with Martin Perez spluttering, the Minnesota rotation is Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and the void.
For much of 2019, the rotation was reliable. For much of 2019, it was better than the bullpen. That has reversed now. The bullpen -- with the addition of Sergio Romo and the emergence of Tyler Duffey and Zach Littell -- is better than the rotation right now.
Berrios and Odorizzi will be conventional starters in the playoffs, of course, although Odorizzi is not an innings eater. The other games will likely be bullpen-heavy, with Perez, Lewis Thorpe, Delvin Smeltzer and perhaps Randy Dobnak going once or at most twice though the batting order.
Craig Counsell, the manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, is given to describing his pitchers' roles as "out-getters." I have more faith right now that the unproven guys -- Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe -- can get outs than in the veterans Gibson and Perez.
With Michael Pineda suspended, with Gibson ineffective, with Martin Perez spluttering, the Minnesota rotation is Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and the void.
For much of 2019, the rotation was reliable. For much of 2019, it was better than the bullpen. That has reversed now. The bullpen -- with the addition of Sergio Romo and the emergence of Tyler Duffey and Zach Littell -- is better than the rotation right now.
Berrios and Odorizzi will be conventional starters in the playoffs, of course, although Odorizzi is not an innings eater. The other games will likely be bullpen-heavy, with Perez, Lewis Thorpe, Delvin Smeltzer and perhaps Randy Dobnak going once or at most twice though the batting order.
Craig Counsell, the manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, is given to describing his pitchers' roles as "out-getters." I have more faith right now that the unproven guys -- Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe -- can get outs than in the veterans Gibson and Perez.
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
First place
Twins win. Indians lose. And the half-game margin reverses in Minnesota's favor.
The biggest thing -- other than the W -- about Tuesday's game for the Twins might have been Sam Dyson, who came off the injured list (with Cody Stashak optioned out) and threw a scoreless eighth inning.
Dyson was, at least in theory, the single biggest bullpen get of the trading deadline, but he hadn't done anything useful for the Twins before they IL'd him. If he's sound and effective, that's a big piece for the bullpen.
Or maybe the biggest thing was Martin Perez. The southpaw celebrated "International Left-handers Day" with his best start since early May -- six innings, one unearned run. It was his first quality start in almost a month.
I won't proclaim him back in form, however. He walked four with just three strikeouts and allowed six hits. He was in and out of trouble throughout his start. Of course, Ryne Harper, the first reliever of the seventh, never got out of trouble, so Perez got a non-decision.
The biggest thing -- other than the W -- about Tuesday's game for the Twins might have been Sam Dyson, who came off the injured list (with Cody Stashak optioned out) and threw a scoreless eighth inning.
Dyson was, at least in theory, the single biggest bullpen get of the trading deadline, but he hadn't done anything useful for the Twins before they IL'd him. If he's sound and effective, that's a big piece for the bullpen.
Or maybe the biggest thing was Martin Perez. The southpaw celebrated "International Left-handers Day" with his best start since early May -- six innings, one unearned run. It was his first quality start in almost a month.
I won't proclaim him back in form, however. He walked four with just three strikeouts and allowed six hits. He was in and out of trouble throughout his start. Of course, Ryne Harper, the first reliever of the seventh, never got out of trouble, so Perez got a non-decision.
Friday, July 19, 2019
Bomba. bomba, bomba
Thursday night was a rather stereotypical 2019 Twins win: Three homers, a sneaky good start, and two innings from Taylor Rogers.
Kyle Gibson went seven innings against Oakland -- six hits, no walks, seven strikeouts and 73 strikes out of 106 pitches. The three runs allowed were the least impressive part of his stat line. Sneaky good.
I made this point. or tried to, earlier this week during a segment on KMSU radio: The Twins interest in a trade for a starting pitcher should be limited to a starter capable of moving Gibson down a rung in the playoff rotation. I'm not sure that starter is going to be on the market, and if he is, at a price the Twins will be willing to pay.
The Twins don't need the kind of starter who has moved so far (Andrew Cashner and Homer Bailey). Those are back-of-the-rotation guys, and the Twins have Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. And Gibson is now 9-4, 4.02 with more strikeouts than innings pitched. That ain't shabby.
Another point I made Monday that probably bears repeating: I said the Twins were likely to see their lead, then 6.5 games, shrink a bit in July. The Twins have a rougher schedule than Cleveland the rest of this month. But that reverses in August.
Kyle Gibson went seven innings against Oakland -- six hits, no walks, seven strikeouts and 73 strikes out of 106 pitches. The three runs allowed were the least impressive part of his stat line. Sneaky good.
I made this point. or tried to, earlier this week during a segment on KMSU radio: The Twins interest in a trade for a starting pitcher should be limited to a starter capable of moving Gibson down a rung in the playoff rotation. I'm not sure that starter is going to be on the market, and if he is, at a price the Twins will be willing to pay.
The Twins don't need the kind of starter who has moved so far (Andrew Cashner and Homer Bailey). Those are back-of-the-rotation guys, and the Twins have Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. And Gibson is now 9-4, 4.02 with more strikeouts than innings pitched. That ain't shabby.
Another point I made Monday that probably bears repeating: I said the Twins were likely to see their lead, then 6.5 games, shrink a bit in July. The Twins have a rougher schedule than Cleveland the rest of this month. But that reverses in August.
Monday, July 8, 2019
Thoughts from the weekend
I considered late Sunday afternoon revising the Monday print column to put more emphasis on strengthening the bullpen, and to excoriate Adalberto Mejia in particular. I decided to keep the focus on the rotation in general and the notion of a Madison Bumgarner trade in particular.
But Mejia's outing, while certainly not the only reason the Twins lost Sunday, was damaging to his own future. He made the team out of spring training largely because he's out of options. But he has pitched, when not on the injured list, horribly. Sunday gave him 12 walks allowed in 15.1 innings, and that's not tolerable.
The Twins have largely been without a second left-hander in the bullpen. That's supposed to be Mejia's role. They have already dropped Gabriel Moya and Andrew Vasquez from the 40-man roster. The only other left-handed pitchers on the 40 are bullpen ace Taylor Rogers and starters Martin Perez, Lewis Thorpe, Delvin Smeltzer and Stephen Gonsalves. So if there's going to be a second lefty in the bullpen, it will be via trade.
Vasquez was outrighted during the weekend without a corresponding addition to the 40, presumably to open space for a trade for a veteran. If they need two spaces, Mejia is in jeopardy. He may be regardless.
---
Sunday's game turned, in a very real sense, on a play in which Byron Buxton was thrown out trying for third base on a fly to center. His out came before Jonathan Schoop reached the plate and ended the inning.
I was listening to the radio broadcast at that point, Tim Laudner being unlistenable as the TV analyst, and Dan Gladden declined to criticize Buxton's try for third.
I'm not so hesitant. Yes, Joey Gallo had to make a Grade A throw to get him, and yes, Joey Gallo had not played a good center field in the series. But even if there's only a 15 percent chance that Gallo makes a good-enough throw, the gain from advancing Buxton to third with two outs wasn't worth the risk.
If Buxton sticks to second, Schoop's run gives the Twins the lead. Theoretically, that would have been enough to win.
---
The Futures Game on Sunday evening featured two Twins prospects. Royce Lewis went 1-for-2 (and committed an error in the field as a substitute (Wander Franco of the Rays system was, deservedly, the starter at short for the American League team), and Jordan Balazovic threw a hitless inning.
I love the Futures Game, even shortened as it was to seven innings (eight with extras; it ended in a tie). It's a niche product, I know, but I rather prefer it to the All-Star Game itself.
---
Unless the Twins make a trade during the break, I'll probably go silent here until the season resumes.
But Mejia's outing, while certainly not the only reason the Twins lost Sunday, was damaging to his own future. He made the team out of spring training largely because he's out of options. But he has pitched, when not on the injured list, horribly. Sunday gave him 12 walks allowed in 15.1 innings, and that's not tolerable.
The Twins have largely been without a second left-hander in the bullpen. That's supposed to be Mejia's role. They have already dropped Gabriel Moya and Andrew Vasquez from the 40-man roster. The only other left-handed pitchers on the 40 are bullpen ace Taylor Rogers and starters Martin Perez, Lewis Thorpe, Delvin Smeltzer and Stephen Gonsalves. So if there's going to be a second lefty in the bullpen, it will be via trade.
Vasquez was outrighted during the weekend without a corresponding addition to the 40, presumably to open space for a trade for a veteran. If they need two spaces, Mejia is in jeopardy. He may be regardless.
---
Sunday's game turned, in a very real sense, on a play in which Byron Buxton was thrown out trying for third base on a fly to center. His out came before Jonathan Schoop reached the plate and ended the inning.
I was listening to the radio broadcast at that point, Tim Laudner being unlistenable as the TV analyst, and Dan Gladden declined to criticize Buxton's try for third.
I'm not so hesitant. Yes, Joey Gallo had to make a Grade A throw to get him, and yes, Joey Gallo had not played a good center field in the series. But even if there's only a 15 percent chance that Gallo makes a good-enough throw, the gain from advancing Buxton to third with two outs wasn't worth the risk.
If Buxton sticks to second, Schoop's run gives the Twins the lead. Theoretically, that would have been enough to win.
---
The Futures Game on Sunday evening featured two Twins prospects. Royce Lewis went 1-for-2 (and committed an error in the field as a substitute (Wander Franco of the Rays system was, deservedly, the starter at short for the American League team), and Jordan Balazovic threw a hitless inning.
I love the Futures Game, even shortened as it was to seven innings (eight with extras; it ended in a tie). It's a niche product, I know, but I rather prefer it to the All-Star Game itself.
---
Unless the Twins make a trade during the break, I'll probably go silent here until the season resumes.
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
The Cody Allen signing
The Twins over the weekend agreed to a minor-league deal with Cody Allen, who not that long ago was the closer for the Cleveland Indians, and a good one: Allen is the franchise's all-time saves leader.
But last year his ERA mushroomed to 4.70, and the Tribe made no real attempt to retain him in free agency. He signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Angels, and pitched so poorly there that the Halos released him a week ago.
Supposedly the Twins have some ideas to fix Allen. Off his numbers this year, there's a lot to fix. He pitched 23 innings for the Angels, with nine homers allowed and 20 walks. Twenty!
He also struck out 29 in those 23 innings. That suggests to me that he still has his accustomed velocity and movement; he "just" doesn't the command of it. Too many pitches out of the strike zone, too many in the fat part of the strike zone. And, by process of elimination, not nearly enough on the edges of the strike zone, where the outs are.
I don't expect anything from this signing, but I didn't expect anything out of Martin Perez, and he's been a pretty servicable back-of-the-rotation guy. Signing Allen to a minor league deal is different than signing him as the Angels did. If he finds his old form in Pensacola, great. If not, no damage done.
But last year his ERA mushroomed to 4.70, and the Tribe made no real attempt to retain him in free agency. He signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Angels, and pitched so poorly there that the Halos released him a week ago.
Supposedly the Twins have some ideas to fix Allen. Off his numbers this year, there's a lot to fix. He pitched 23 innings for the Angels, with nine homers allowed and 20 walks. Twenty!
He also struck out 29 in those 23 innings. That suggests to me that he still has his accustomed velocity and movement; he "just" doesn't the command of it. Too many pitches out of the strike zone, too many in the fat part of the strike zone. And, by process of elimination, not nearly enough on the edges of the strike zone, where the outs are.
I don't expect anything from this signing, but I didn't expect anything out of Martin Perez, and he's been a pretty servicable back-of-the-rotation guy. Signing Allen to a minor league deal is different than signing him as the Angels did. If he finds his old form in Pensacola, great. If not, no damage done.
Monday, June 17, 2019
Notes from the weekend
The Twins didn't exactly dominate the Royals over the weekend, but they won two of three and had plenty of baserunners in the Sunday loss. It wouldn't have taken much more at the plate or in the field to flip that result.
Sunday's loss puts the Twins at 47-23 -- still, by percentage points, the best record in the American League and 10 games ahead of the second-place Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Minnesota's magic number is 83.
---
Weekend roster move: Fernando Romero back down to Triple A after a poor outing on Friday, Zach Littell back up. Just another round of bullpen musical chairs.
---
The Joe Mauer tribute weekend appears to have gone well. I took note of this Twitter exchange:
Sunday's loss puts the Twins at 47-23 -- still, by percentage points, the best record in the American League and 10 games ahead of the second-place Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Minnesota's magic number is 83.
---
Weekend roster move: Fernando Romero back down to Triple A after a poor outing on Friday, Zach Littell back up. Just another round of bullpen musical chairs.
---
The Joe Mauer tribute weekend appears to have gone well. I took note of this Twitter exchange:
I predict he’ll be voted in. His 10 years as a catcher are enough https://t.co/jQVNwELlEh— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) June 15, 2019
My recollection from the past is that Neal has been a bit cool about Mauer's Hall of Fame chances. I suspect he's heard support for Mauer from enough BBWAA colleagues in the past few months. Mauer has long been more highly regarded outside his home market than in, something I blame on KFAN and a couple of dunderheaded metro columnists.
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You may have noticed Martin Maldonado, the Kansas City catcher, wearing a blue tie over his chest protector Sunday. (The names he wrote on it are those of his father, brother and friends, presumably all fathers.) He wasn't the only one. Einar Diaz of Pittsburgh -- who entered his game late -- had one also. And down in Rochester, Willians Astudillo:
— Morrie Silver (@MorrieSilver8) June 16, 2019
All the same solid light blue with an identical logo.
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Plenty of rumors Sunday about one particular potential Twins trade target, Madison Bumgarner.
I don't think a starting pitcher is as big a need for the Twins as is the bullpen, and I doubt that either Martin Perez or Michael Pineda are good bullpen candidates. Bumgarner is certainly a name, but his pitching the past few years hasn't matched his reputation. There is a theory that getting out of the morass the Giants are stuck in and onto a team with October ambitions will fan his competitive fires.
Bumgarner's a free agent after the season, and he's expected to be dealt. We'll see, obviously, where he lands.
Wednesday, June 12, 2019
Perez, May and Magill
A win is a win; the standings don't add or deduct for style. That said, the Twins are fortunate they were playing a bad team Tuesday, because it really was easy to see them losing that one.
Start with Martin Perez. In some ways, the lefty wasn't all that bad. He struck out seven in his five innings, and more than 62 percent of his pitches were strikes.
On the other hand, he walked three, threw a first pitch strike to only 11 of the 24 men he faced, served up a fat cutter to a top-notch slugger with two on, and kept handing the lead back to the Mariners.
Four runs in five innings is ... not a quality start. Perez hasn't had one of them since May 17. In his three starts since then, his ERA has ballooned from 2.89 to 3.97. (The Twins have gone 2-1 in those three starts anyway.)
Close the carping with Trevor May, who found himself on the mound in the ninth inning for the first time in more than a month. He created a jam right away, allowing singles to the first two Mariners hitters, and needed a generous umpire's strike call to get his first out -- after which it was pop up and fly ball and and game over.
May thus became the sixth Twin to record a save this season: Nine for Blake Parker, six for Taylor Rogers, and one each for Ryne Harper, Trevor Hildenberger, Mike Morin and May. The roleless bullpen rolls on.
The use of May as the closer du jour was a mild surprise. Rogers, clearly the Twins' best reliever, hadn't pitched since Thursday. Parker, frequently if erroneously called the Twins closer by the FSN broadcasters, hadn't pitched since Friday.
But manager Rocco Baldelli called on May for his first real save opportunity of the season. Rogers, it turned out, was unavailable with a stiff back; if anybody inquired postgame why Parker was passed over, the reply wasn't tweeted out.
Baldelli did address Matt Magill -- who retired all three men he faced and got credit for the win -- during the televised portion of his postgame scrum, praising the righty's stuff.
It was Magill's first good outing in some time. In his previous three appearances he allowed 10 runs while getting just four outs and inflated his ERA from 1.35 to 6.60. Those are the kind of results that got Hildenberger shipped back to Triple A, and they had me surmising a few days ago that Magill was pitching himself off the roster.
Not so. I don't know where Magill ranks in Baldelli's bullpen hierarchy these days, and that hierarchy probably changes for no discernible reason anyway, but he got the ball in the eighth inning of aone two-run game Tuesday. He clearly remains in Baldelli's mix.
Start with Martin Perez. In some ways, the lefty wasn't all that bad. He struck out seven in his five innings, and more than 62 percent of his pitches were strikes.
On the other hand, he walked three, threw a first pitch strike to only 11 of the 24 men he faced, served up a fat cutter to a top-notch slugger with two on, and kept handing the lead back to the Mariners.
Four runs in five innings is ... not a quality start. Perez hasn't had one of them since May 17. In his three starts since then, his ERA has ballooned from 2.89 to 3.97. (The Twins have gone 2-1 in those three starts anyway.)
Close the carping with Trevor May, who found himself on the mound in the ninth inning for the first time in more than a month. He created a jam right away, allowing singles to the first two Mariners hitters, and needed a generous umpire's strike call to get his first out -- after which it was pop up and fly ball and and game over.
May thus became the sixth Twin to record a save this season: Nine for Blake Parker, six for Taylor Rogers, and one each for Ryne Harper, Trevor Hildenberger, Mike Morin and May. The roleless bullpen rolls on.
The use of May as the closer du jour was a mild surprise. Rogers, clearly the Twins' best reliever, hadn't pitched since Thursday. Parker, frequently if erroneously called the Twins closer by the FSN broadcasters, hadn't pitched since Friday.
But manager Rocco Baldelli called on May for his first real save opportunity of the season. Rogers, it turned out, was unavailable with a stiff back; if anybody inquired postgame why Parker was passed over, the reply wasn't tweeted out.
Baldelli did address Matt Magill -- who retired all three men he faced and got credit for the win -- during the televised portion of his postgame scrum, praising the righty's stuff.
It was Magill's first good outing in some time. In his previous three appearances he allowed 10 runs while getting just four outs and inflated his ERA from 1.35 to 6.60. Those are the kind of results that got Hildenberger shipped back to Triple A, and they had me surmising a few days ago that Magill was pitching himself off the roster.
Not so. I don't know where Magill ranks in Baldelli's bullpen hierarchy these days, and that hierarchy probably changes for no discernible reason anyway, but he got the ball in the eighth inning of a
Friday, June 7, 2019
Notes, quotes and comment
Reports Thursday night had Dallas Keuchel agreeing to a one-year contract with Atlanta.
I have an easier time understanding the league-wide reluctance to sign Craig Kimbrel than the reluctance to sign Keuchel, but Kimbrel got the richer multi-year deal, Neither, I'm sure, is exactly happy with the outcome.
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A beat writer opines:
I have an easier time understanding the league-wide reluctance to sign Craig Kimbrel than the reluctance to sign Keuchel, but Kimbrel got the richer multi-year deal, Neither, I'm sure, is exactly happy with the outcome.
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A beat writer opines:
Sidenote: Taylor Rogers will not be nasty if he is required to record 34-pitch saves several times a week. #MNTwins need more high-leverage arms.— Dan Hayes (@DanHayesMLB) June 7, 2019
The conclusion is correct: The Twins do need more high-leverage arms.
But if Rogers gets a couple days off after each of those 34-pitch outings, so that he's doing it twice a week -- and doing nothing else -- it's doable. The problem will be if the Twins decide they just have to use him again tonight for a couple batters. And one issue with Rogers is that he is the sole lefty in the bullpen.
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A former bullpen ace opines:
Blake Parker has been struggling a bit since before tonite but i’m just gonna throw it out there that maybe, just maybe, throwing guys out there for random innings is easier on paper than it is in actual game situations.— Glen Perkins (@glenperkins) June 6, 2019
That came after Parker's Wednesday outing, when he entered in the seventh with a two-run lead and gave up three runs on two homers.
Parker is not exactly being used in random innings, of course. He's being used in high-leverage innings in the final third of games, rather than being held back for the ninth only, a la Joe Nathan. The same is true of Rogers.
The underlying problem, as the Hayes tweet notes, is that the Twins lack sufficient high-leverage arms -- guys Rocco Baldelli and Wes Johnson can trust in game situations. Parker was pitching in the seventh on Wednesday because it was a high-leverage situation. It was a high leverage situation becaue Martin Perez didn't pitch effectively enough long enough, and Trevor May had to get him out of a sixth-inning jam. And Baldelli was using Parker then in hopes that he'd hold the fort in the seventh and the hitters would widen the lead and allow the less-trusted arms to finish.
The Twins had four leverage arms at the start of the season. Trevor Hildenberger is back in the minors trying to figure it out. May has fought his command all year. Baldelli is down to Parker and Rogers, and that's not enough.
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Side note: It has been more than a week since Mike Morin last pitched (May 30). Something's odd about that.
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One more tweet. this one from a different beat writer:
After going 5-4 against the Brewers, Rays and Indians, and with their AL Central lead back in double digits, the Twins now embark on nine straight games against sub-.400 opposition: Tigers, Mariners, Royals.— Phil Miller (@MillerStrib) June 7, 2019
And the Twins still have not lost more than two in a row this year. It's not like this team is broken, folks.
Friday, May 31, 2019
That didn't go well
On Thursday morning I posted some (more so than usual) incoherent ramblings about Zach Littell. On Thursday evening he got to pitch for the first time in almost a week.
Neither went particularly well, Some 24 hours after I composed that post, I'm still not sure what the point was. Littell's outing yielded one positive: The meaningful pieces of the Twins bullpen were undisturbed by Martin Perez's poor start. Littell got rocked for 10 hits and eight earned runs, but he got 13 outs, and the Twins needed to use just one other reliever (Mike Morin for one inning).
That is, basically, Littell's role: Eat unimportant innings and try to pitch well enough to earn some important ones. Part one he did. Part two he didn't. I won't be shocked if the ultimate outcome for him is a return to Triple A Rochester; he's certainly not going to be called on again in the Tampa Bay series.
Neither went particularly well, Some 24 hours after I composed that post, I'm still not sure what the point was. Littell's outing yielded one positive: The meaningful pieces of the Twins bullpen were undisturbed by Martin Perez's poor start. Littell got rocked for 10 hits and eight earned runs, but he got 13 outs, and the Twins needed to use just one other reliever (Mike Morin for one inning).
That is, basically, Littell's role: Eat unimportant innings and try to pitch well enough to earn some important ones. Part one he did. Part two he didn't. I won't be shocked if the ultimate outcome for him is a return to Triple A Rochester; he's certainly not going to be called on again in the Tampa Bay series.
Thursday, May 30, 2019
Zack Littell and the pitching inventory
Zach Littell is currently a member of the Twins bullpen, but pretty clearly the eighth man. He pitched two innings on May 24, and has been idle since. If the Twins decide to cut back to 12 pitchers as Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver come off the injured list, Littell's job is in jeopardy.
Littell's projected major league role has dwindled since the Twins got him in July 2017 from the Yankees for Jamie Garcia. At the time he was pitching in Double A and having a superb season (he finsihed 19-1, 2.12, for three teams at two levels). While nobody was being wowed with his stuff, it was easy to be impressed by the results. A middle-to-back of the rotation future seemed quite possible.
By late last season he was being described by then-manager Paul Molitor as a candidate to be used with an opener -- good enough, by implication, to work twice through the order but not really good enough to be a traditional starter. And indeed, he was used as a bulk inning guy several times last September.
Now he's a reliever, although it's not really clear that this is a permanent move, as with Tyler Duffey and Fernando Romero. Unlike the latter two, Littell was mostly starting for the Redwings in Triple A before his call-up. Indeed, to the degree that one can deduce the Rochester starting rotation, he's been one of the cornerstones of that rotation, along with Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe. Thorpe has nine starts, Littell and Stewart seven apiece. Nobody else has more than four, and one of them is Devin Smeltzer, who started the season in Double A.
The Twins this year have had a pretty durable major league rotation, even if Michael Pineda is currently on the shelf. They've only had three starts go to somebody other than the five starters who came out of spring training (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Pineda and Martin Perez) -- two by Stewart and one by Smeltzer.
I heard Thad Levine, the general manager, talking on the radio pregame show Sunday about "lines of defense" -- the reinforcments already in the organization. Smeltzer probably wasn't seriously viewed as part of that during the offseason; Stephen Gonsalves was. But Gonsalves has barely pitched this year, and Smeltzer's stock has certainly risen.
I see more reason for optimism about the starters who are or have been in Double-A Pensacola this year -- Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, Griffin Jax, Bursdar Graterol (now sidelined with a shoulder issue) -- than with the guys who've been in Triple A or the majors -- Stewart, Littell, Thorpe and Chase DeJong.
That Littell is sitting in the major league bullpen without much to do suggests to me that he's not prominent on the rotation depth chart these days.
Littell's projected major league role has dwindled since the Twins got him in July 2017 from the Yankees for Jamie Garcia. At the time he was pitching in Double A and having a superb season (he finsihed 19-1, 2.12, for three teams at two levels). While nobody was being wowed with his stuff, it was easy to be impressed by the results. A middle-to-back of the rotation future seemed quite possible.
By late last season he was being described by then-manager Paul Molitor as a candidate to be used with an opener -- good enough, by implication, to work twice through the order but not really good enough to be a traditional starter. And indeed, he was used as a bulk inning guy several times last September.
Now he's a reliever, although it's not really clear that this is a permanent move, as with Tyler Duffey and Fernando Romero. Unlike the latter two, Littell was mostly starting for the Redwings in Triple A before his call-up. Indeed, to the degree that one can deduce the Rochester starting rotation, he's been one of the cornerstones of that rotation, along with Kohl Stewart and Lewis Thorpe. Thorpe has nine starts, Littell and Stewart seven apiece. Nobody else has more than four, and one of them is Devin Smeltzer, who started the season in Double A.
The Twins this year have had a pretty durable major league rotation, even if Michael Pineda is currently on the shelf. They've only had three starts go to somebody other than the five starters who came out of spring training (Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Pineda and Martin Perez) -- two by Stewart and one by Smeltzer.
I heard Thad Levine, the general manager, talking on the radio pregame show Sunday about "lines of defense" -- the reinforcments already in the organization. Smeltzer probably wasn't seriously viewed as part of that during the offseason; Stephen Gonsalves was. But Gonsalves has barely pitched this year, and Smeltzer's stock has certainly risen.
I see more reason for optimism about the starters who are or have been in Double-A Pensacola this year -- Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, Griffin Jax, Bursdar Graterol (now sidelined with a shoulder issue) -- than with the guys who've been in Triple A or the majors -- Stewart, Littell, Thorpe and Chase DeJong.
That Littell is sitting in the major league bullpen without much to do suggests to me that he's not prominent on the rotation depth chart these days.
Monday, May 13, 2019
Thoughts from the weekend
Must ... resist ... the impluse to read too much into the Detroit series. Splitting with the Tigers isn't a disaster, but it wasn't what I expected either. It was a series in mid May, or perhaps a bit earlier than mid May, with a doubleheader, and Rocco Baldelli gave the reserves a good bit of run.
A few bullet points:
* The Twins got less-than-dominant starts Saturday and Sunday. This was not really a surprise from Michael Pineda and Kohl Stewart, even if the Tigers have a notably light-hitting lineup; it says a lot about how quickly Martin Perez has risen in my esteem that his outing surprised me.
*Deeper thoughts on Pineda and Stewart in the Monday print column.
* A good bit of roster shuffling this weekend connected to the makeup doubleheader Saturday. Stewart came up to start Saturday' second game; officially he was taking the place of Perez, who was on paternity leave for the birth of his son. Tyler Duffey was the 26th man for the doubleheader and pitched a strong inning to wrap up that one.
And La Tortuga is back from the injured list. The Twins cut back to 12 pitchers after Saturday and reactivated Willians Astudillo, who caught and led off Sunday. This makes him the fourth catcher to hit leadoff in Twins history -- John Roseboro, Butch Wynegar in the past and Mitch Garver and Astudillo this year.
* I had expected that, if the Twins were to cut back to 12 pitchers, that Mike Morin would be the loser, but it was Fernando Romero instead. Baldelli, on the radio pregame show Sunday, had an intriguing reason for that: Romero isn't getting enough regular work in the major league bullpen to develop. They want him to pitch two days in a row, to finish an inning and go back out ("up-and-down"), and those opportunities aren't there with the Twins. Or they're there, but it's the Big Four being asked to do them.
* One of those Big Four, Trevor Hildenberger, is definitely in a pitching slump, surrendering a pair of runs both Saturday and Sunday. Again, must resist the urge to overreact -- but Hildenberger has shown a tendency for bad streaks in the past.
* Miguel Sano's rehab tour of the minor leagues is near its end. He's at Triple A now and hammered a couple of doubles over the weekend (and struck out a few times too.) Meanwhile, Nelson Cruz came out of Sunday's game with a sore wrist, which is to be examined today. If Cruz has to sit a while, that probably gets Sano back on the roster without bouncing either Jake Cave or Ehire Adrianza, and opens up a lineup slot as well.
A few bullet points:
* The Twins got less-than-dominant starts Saturday and Sunday. This was not really a surprise from Michael Pineda and Kohl Stewart, even if the Tigers have a notably light-hitting lineup; it says a lot about how quickly Martin Perez has risen in my esteem that his outing surprised me.
*Deeper thoughts on Pineda and Stewart in the Monday print column.
* A good bit of roster shuffling this weekend connected to the makeup doubleheader Saturday. Stewart came up to start Saturday' second game; officially he was taking the place of Perez, who was on paternity leave for the birth of his son. Tyler Duffey was the 26th man for the doubleheader and pitched a strong inning to wrap up that one.
And La Tortuga is back from the injured list. The Twins cut back to 12 pitchers after Saturday and reactivated Willians Astudillo, who caught and led off Sunday. This makes him the fourth catcher to hit leadoff in Twins history -- John Roseboro, Butch Wynegar in the past and Mitch Garver and Astudillo this year.
* I had expected that, if the Twins were to cut back to 12 pitchers, that Mike Morin would be the loser, but it was Fernando Romero instead. Baldelli, on the radio pregame show Sunday, had an intriguing reason for that: Romero isn't getting enough regular work in the major league bullpen to develop. They want him to pitch two days in a row, to finish an inning and go back out ("up-and-down"), and those opportunities aren't there with the Twins. Or they're there, but it's the Big Four being asked to do them.
* One of those Big Four, Trevor Hildenberger, is definitely in a pitching slump, surrendering a pair of runs both Saturday and Sunday. Again, must resist the urge to overreact -- but Hildenberger has shown a tendency for bad streaks in the past.
* Miguel Sano's rehab tour of the minor leagues is near its end. He's at Triple A now and hammered a couple of doubles over the weekend (and struck out a few times too.) Meanwhile, Nelson Cruz came out of Sunday's game with a sore wrist, which is to be examined today. If Cruz has to sit a while, that probably gets Sano back on the roster without bouncing either Jake Cave or Ehire Adrianza, and opens up a lineup slot as well.
Saturday, May 11, 2019
A hot streak
— Dave Campbell (@DaveCampbellAP) May 11, 2019
Twins have outscored opponents 26-1 over 4 games. They are the 1st team in last 4 seasons to allow no more than 1 run over 4-game span. The last team to scored 26+ runs over 4-game span while allowing 1 or fewer was the Twins in 2004 (July 5-8: scored 32, allowed 1).@EliasSports— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) May 11, 2019
Well, yeah. We'll see what happens today, with Michael Pineda and Kohl Stewart starting the two ends of the doubleheader. And for that matter, Martin Perez, slated for Sunday's start, went on paternity leave Friday, so the Twins might be reaching for somebody to work that one as well.
But if there's a team to be working your organizational pitching depth against, it's probably the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera -- he of one homer and a sub-.400 slugging percentage so far in 2019 -- recently explained his lack of power production on the weak hitters surrounding him.
Ron Gardenhire is trotting out a light-hitting lineup, dead last in the AL in runs scored so far. But Cabrera, who turned 36 last month, ain't what he once was either.
None of this is to be dismissive of Jake Odorizzi's outing Friday -- one hit in seven innings. He now has a 20-inning scoreless streak going, which would be impressive if it all came against the Tigers. He's done this against better lineups too.
Thursday, May 2, 2019
A night of two pitchers
Wednesday's events may signal a bit of a turning point in the nascent AL Central race.
In Minnesota, Martin Perez dominated the powerful Astros lineup with eight scoreless innings. (Reliever Trevor Hildenberger allowed two runs in the ninth but the Twins won 6-2.) Perez allowed four hits and struck out seven.
Perez was so good he had ESPN analyst Rick Sutcliffe babbling about him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. That might be premature, but he was impressive -- and I am quite certain now that I was absolutely wrong this offseason when evaluating the signing. But in my defense, Perez is not the pitcher now that he was in Texas. He and the Twins have adjusted his delivery and changed his repertoire.
In Miami, Cleveland ace Corey Kluber was hit in his right forearm/elbow by a 102-mph liner. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has a non-displaced fracture of the ulna and his pitching arm is in a cast. He's to be evaluated today back in Cleveland, but it's safe to assume that he's going to be out of action for a good while.
Kluber's pitching in April wasn't up to his usual standard, but this is still a significant blow to the Indians. I don't root for injuries. I root for greatness, and "the Klubot" has been just that for five years.
The starting rotation was perceived to be Cleveland's big advantage over the Twins. But even that advantage may now be gone. It has certainly faded.
In Minnesota, Martin Perez dominated the powerful Astros lineup with eight scoreless innings. (Reliever Trevor Hildenberger allowed two runs in the ninth but the Twins won 6-2.) Perez allowed four hits and struck out seven.
Perez was so good he had ESPN analyst Rick Sutcliffe babbling about him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. That might be premature, but he was impressive -- and I am quite certain now that I was absolutely wrong this offseason when evaluating the signing. But in my defense, Perez is not the pitcher now that he was in Texas. He and the Twins have adjusted his delivery and changed his repertoire.
In Miami, Cleveland ace Corey Kluber was hit in his right forearm/elbow by a 102-mph liner. The two-time Cy Young Award winner has a non-displaced fracture of the ulna and his pitching arm is in a cast. He's to be evaluated today back in Cleveland, but it's safe to assume that he's going to be out of action for a good while.
Kluber's pitching in April wasn't up to his usual standard, but this is still a significant blow to the Indians. I don't root for injuries. I root for greatness, and "the Klubot" has been just that for five years.
The starting rotation was perceived to be Cleveland's big advantage over the Twins. But even that advantage may now be gone. It has certainly faded.
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
The search for five
The number from Monday's Blue Jays-Twins tilt that matters was five, and not just because the Jays scored five runs to win it. It's because the game from the Twins viewpoint was about the No. 5 starter and a fifth bullpen arm.
On the bad side, there were a lot of hard-hit balls, not only among the seven hits but several of the outs. And the Jays helped him with a pair of base-running gaffes.
The thing is, he was ahead of all the hitters leading up to the Teoscar Hernandez three-run homer that put Toronto up for good. He couldn't put any of them away.
Mejia's background is as a starter, and as such he should have weapons to use against right-handers. He didn't get them out on Monday, at least not before giving up the lead. It was not an outing that encourages manager Rocco Baldelli to increase his role.
The Twins bullpen has four guys Baldelli trusts (Trevor Hildenberger, Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers) and three he's tried to avoid using in winnable games (Ryne Harper, Andrew Vasquez and Mejia).
Four trustworthy relievers are not enough if the starters are going to go six innings max. And I've never believed that the Twins were going to avoid going to an eight-man bullpen for long.
Baldelli used his big four pretty heavily against the Tigers Saturday and Sunday. He was clearly trying Monday to stay away from them in the seventh and eighth innings. What he would have done with the ninth and a lead, I don't know.
Harper made his first appearance in almost a week Monday, and he sliced through the 8-9-1 hitters in the Toronto order with two strikeouts in the seventh. He certainly brings a different approach than the rest of the righties in the Minnesota bullpen, and he's easy to root for. But no manager is going to be eager to lean on a 30-year-old rookie without velocity. If Harper is going to get a role, he'll have to earn it with more outings like Monday's.
Of note: Gabriel Moya and Matt Magill, two mainstays of the 2018 bullpen, are starting rehab assignments. Moya's probably the crucial one, as the Twins could really use a second reliable lefty in relief and neither Mejia nor Vasquez have been that so far.
My guess is that Vasquez and a position player are gone when Moya and Magill are ready to be activated.
The starter
Martin Perez's line in his first start of 2019 was good. One run in six innings? Yeah, we'll take that. Two walks and five strikeouts is certainly acceptable. The velocity was good, and he even hit 97 in his final innings. He threw 86 pitches, less than one might wish for from a starter, but he's been trapped by the sporadic schedule for the first three weeks of the season in the bullpen with limited pitches.On the bad side, there were a lot of hard-hit balls, not only among the seven hits but several of the outs. And the Jays helped him with a pair of base-running gaffes.
The reliever
Left-hander Aldaberto Mejia was handed a genuine test: A 3-1 eighth-inning lead to protect against a lineup heavy with right-handed hitters. He failed.The thing is, he was ahead of all the hitters leading up to the Teoscar Hernandez three-run homer that put Toronto up for good. He couldn't put any of them away.
Mejia's background is as a starter, and as such he should have weapons to use against right-handers. He didn't get them out on Monday, at least not before giving up the lead. It was not an outing that encourages manager Rocco Baldelli to increase his role.
The Twins bullpen has four guys Baldelli trusts (Trevor Hildenberger, Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers) and three he's tried to avoid using in winnable games (Ryne Harper, Andrew Vasquez and Mejia).
Four trustworthy relievers are not enough if the starters are going to go six innings max. And I've never believed that the Twins were going to avoid going to an eight-man bullpen for long.
Baldelli used his big four pretty heavily against the Tigers Saturday and Sunday. He was clearly trying Monday to stay away from them in the seventh and eighth innings. What he would have done with the ninth and a lead, I don't know.
Harper made his first appearance in almost a week Monday, and he sliced through the 8-9-1 hitters in the Toronto order with two strikeouts in the seventh. He certainly brings a different approach than the rest of the righties in the Minnesota bullpen, and he's easy to root for. But no manager is going to be eager to lean on a 30-year-old rookie without velocity. If Harper is going to get a role, he'll have to earn it with more outings like Monday's.
Of note: Gabriel Moya and Matt Magill, two mainstays of the 2018 bullpen, are starting rehab assignments. Moya's probably the crucial one, as the Twins could really use a second reliable lefty in relief and neither Mejia nor Vasquez have been that so far.
My guess is that Vasquez and a position player are gone when Moya and Magill are ready to be activated.
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
deGrom, De Jong and de manager
The prospect of facing Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in a two-game series in Queens was rather daunting; I would have been quite satisfied with a split. Now that the Twins have not only won the first game but battered the defending NL Cy Young winner -- well, rationally the split is still sufficient, but a sweep sounds a lot better.
If you were paying attention Tuesday night, you know how rare that game was. DeGrom had had 26 consecutive quality starts, tied with the 1968 version of Bob Gibson for most ever. His ERA last year was 1.70. And the Twins scored six earned runs in four innings off him. From the New York Post's Joel Sherman:
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Chase De Jong, handed the ninth inning mop-up duties, was awful. He walked three, gave up four earned runs and basically looked like he had no business back in the major leagues.
To be fair, he hadn't pitched in a while; he was supposed to have started the opener for the Rochester Red Wings, but they got weathered out, and then he was called up to provide length in the Minnesota bullpen after Jake Odorizzi stunk things up last Friday.
I said on Twitter that De Jong was pitching his way off the roster. But ... the Twins bullpen is still in pretty good shape. De Jong shouldn't be available after throwing more than 45 pitches in that ugly inning, but the rest of the bullpenners worked short stints. Taylor Rogers didn't pitch at all, and Trevor Hildenberger and Blake Parker faced just one man each.
And Rocco Baldelli apparently intends to get Martin Perez some innings in this series. My guess is that even if Odorizzi throws six scoreless innings today, Perez gets the ball for the seventh. After all, there's yet another offday on Thursday, and who knows what the weather holds for the homestand to follow.
So De Jong, who is out of options, might stick around after all. His lousy outing -- and it was lousy -- didn't stress the rest of the bullpen.
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Baldelli could have gone for the length from Perez after Hildenberger got the Twins out of the fifth inning. In fact, that's what I expected. Instead, he pieced the rest of the game together with a pitcher use reminiscent of Ron Gardenhire's -- one inning from Trevor May, split an inning between Aldaberto Mejia and Parker, an inning from Ryne Harper, an inning from De Jong. Nobody but DeJong was used hard, and all should be available today.
But I suspect that Baldelli would prefer not to use any relievers today other than Perez and Rogers. He's not often used anybody on consecutive days so far, although there have been so many off days that we probably shouldn't draw any conclusions about his bullpen use patterns.
Assuming that he does go for length from Perez today, he will have handled the 'pen in this series as if we were still in spring training -- give everybody a little work to stay sharp, give Perez some length to stay stretched out for his eventual entry into the starting rotation. Doing those things and winning the games is ideal.
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Multi-position man Marwin Gonzalez played a lot of first base with the Astros -- more than twice as many games, starts and innings at first than at third in his seven seasons with Houston.
Multi-position man Willians Astudillo entered Tuesday having played more third base in the majors than anywhere other than catcher and with just two innings at first in his brief big-league tenure.
But Baldelli on Tuesday started Gonzalez at third and Astudillo at first, La Tortuga's first big league start at that position. (Baldelli later took Gonzalez out in a double-switch, but Astudillo played the full game at first base.)
My interpretation of that: As long as Miguel Sano remains off the active roster, Gonzalez is primarily a third baseman. He has played four innings at first. He hasn't seen the outfield yet, and he hasn't been in the middle infield either.
If you were paying attention Tuesday night, you know how rare that game was. DeGrom had had 26 consecutive quality starts, tied with the 1968 version of Bob Gibson for most ever. His ERA last year was 1.70. And the Twins scored six earned runs in four innings off him. From the New York Post's Joel Sherman:
That was as many as he had permitted last July. Don’t look for the date — the whole month of July. That was as many as he allowed last August. That was one fewer than he let in last September. And it was six more than he had yielded in two starts to open 2019 ...The Twins didn't pick on a punching bag Tuesday night. At least not until they got into the Mets bullpen.
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Chase De Jong, handed the ninth inning mop-up duties, was awful. He walked three, gave up four earned runs and basically looked like he had no business back in the major leagues.
To be fair, he hadn't pitched in a while; he was supposed to have started the opener for the Rochester Red Wings, but they got weathered out, and then he was called up to provide length in the Minnesota bullpen after Jake Odorizzi stunk things up last Friday.
I said on Twitter that De Jong was pitching his way off the roster. But ... the Twins bullpen is still in pretty good shape. De Jong shouldn't be available after throwing more than 45 pitches in that ugly inning, but the rest of the bullpenners worked short stints. Taylor Rogers didn't pitch at all, and Trevor Hildenberger and Blake Parker faced just one man each.
And Rocco Baldelli apparently intends to get Martin Perez some innings in this series. My guess is that even if Odorizzi throws six scoreless innings today, Perez gets the ball for the seventh. After all, there's yet another offday on Thursday, and who knows what the weather holds for the homestand to follow.
So De Jong, who is out of options, might stick around after all. His lousy outing -- and it was lousy -- didn't stress the rest of the bullpen.
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Baldelli could have gone for the length from Perez after Hildenberger got the Twins out of the fifth inning. In fact, that's what I expected. Instead, he pieced the rest of the game together with a pitcher use reminiscent of Ron Gardenhire's -- one inning from Trevor May, split an inning between Aldaberto Mejia and Parker, an inning from Ryne Harper, an inning from De Jong. Nobody but DeJong was used hard, and all should be available today.
But I suspect that Baldelli would prefer not to use any relievers today other than Perez and Rogers. He's not often used anybody on consecutive days so far, although there have been so many off days that we probably shouldn't draw any conclusions about his bullpen use patterns.
Assuming that he does go for length from Perez today, he will have handled the 'pen in this series as if we were still in spring training -- give everybody a little work to stay sharp, give Perez some length to stay stretched out for his eventual entry into the starting rotation. Doing those things and winning the games is ideal.
---
Multi-position man Marwin Gonzalez played a lot of first base with the Astros -- more than twice as many games, starts and innings at first than at third in his seven seasons with Houston.
Multi-position man Willians Astudillo entered Tuesday having played more third base in the majors than anywhere other than catcher and with just two innings at first in his brief big-league tenure.
But Baldelli on Tuesday started Gonzalez at third and Astudillo at first, La Tortuga's first big league start at that position. (Baldelli later took Gonzalez out in a double-switch, but Astudillo played the full game at first base.)
My interpretation of that: As long as Miguel Sano remains off the active roster, Gonzalez is primarily a third baseman. He has played four innings at first. He hasn't seen the outfield yet, and he hasn't been in the middle infield either.
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