Monitoring the outfield

Monday morning I predicted that Aaron Hicks would be out of the starting lineup for that day's game. Instead it was Byron Buxton, for the second time in four games.

And, of course, Hicks led off the game with a home run, prompting me to tell my wife: "Once again, Eddie doesn't know what he's talking about."

Meanwhile, Torii Hunter had a good game -- two hits, one of them a double -- despite a matchup against a very hard thrower that didn't figure to particularly fruitful. That will make it easier for Paul Molitor to continue to put Hunter in the lineup.

I return here to first principles. I want the outfield defense. This pitching staff needs an outfield that can turn hits into outs and extra-base hits into singles. I said that at the start of the season, when the Twins opened the year with an outfield of Oswaldo Arcia in left, Jordan Schafer in center and Hunter in right. And I say it in the final month, with Arcia's season over, Schafer teamless and Hunter somewhere between being a regular and being a part-timer.

Notes, quotes and comment

I split Sunday's game between the radio broadcast and the TV, and I'm not sure which announcer said it, but supposedly Torii Hunter was displeased that he was out of the lineup on Saturday.

Which doesn't surprise me but does give me some sour amusement. Does Hunter really believe he's playing so well that he has to be in the lineup? Maybe not, but I'm sure he believes his recent performance understates his current abilities. I'm not saying he's right, mind you. I think he is simply unwilling to admit he's losing the battle (at long last) with time.

The Twins have played three games since Aaron Hicks came off the DL. Of the four "regular" outfielders now active, Hicks is the one who started all three games. Byron Buxton sat Friday, Hunter on Saturday and Eddie Rosario on Sunday, against one of the league's best lefties. I imagine that Hicks will sit today at Kansas City against Yolando Ventura. Paul Molitor will start this playing guys evenly for a bit, then narrow somebody's PT.

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An idle thought struck me during Sunday's game: What is somebody named "Dallas" doing starring for a Houston team?

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The Monday print column compares the shutdown of prime Twins prospect Jose Berrios with the controversy in New York over Matt Harvey's concern over possible overuse in his Tommy John return.

Harvey was roundly ripped in the New York media this weekend, and there is growing speculation that he will be traded during the offseason as a result. Which reminds me that the Mets were supposedly casting around for a shortstop earlier in the year and haven't really solved the position,

Harvey for Eduardo Escobar? Much as I like Escobar, if I'm the Twins I do that deal in a heartbeat. The linked piece above suggests Brian Dozier as a potential target, and I'd be good with that too, considering that Jorge Polanco is about as ready as he'll ever be and probably ought to be a second baseman in the majors. But I doubt that no matter how unhappy the Mets front office may be with Harvey over this spat that they're seriously going to trade him.

Outfield alignments

Aaron Hicks rejoined the Twins on Friday and was immediately returned to the starting lineup. Byron Buxton sat.

We'll see how Paul Molitor juggles playing time now with four presumably regular outfielders -- Buxton, Hicks, Torii Hunter and Eddie Rosario. My belief is that the team will be better off if Hunter sits and the three 20-somethings play, but as I've said before, the Twins have a substantial emotional investment in Hunter. They signed him to be at the center of the team, and they're not likely to push him aside completely in the final month.

Molitor has said that if Buxton is in the lineup, he's playing center field. That's the right call. Presumably Hicks will be the play-around guy.

Buxton: CF
Hunter: RF
Rosario: LF
Hicks: Whichever position is open.

My guess is that the two highest priorities to play will be Rosario and Hicks, who have the best hitting numbers on the season.

The guy who's pretty much guaranteed to lose playing time is Shane Robinson, who has been getting consistent time in left field when Hunter sits, with Rosario shifting to right field. Now it''s going to take sitting two "regulars" to get Robinson in the lineup.

Robinson, incidentally, has already set career highs in at-bats, runs scored and hits. He has almost no power, but his batting average and on-base percentage are better than Hunter's, and his defense is markedly better. He's a decent fourth or fifth outfielder, but the need for him this month is probably pretty light.

Which is more difficult, left field or right field?

The Twins have taken, in the absence of expected regular outfielders Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham, to playing Jason Kubel in left field and Chris Colabello in right.

Neither is a Gold Glove candidate, but Kubel at least has the advantage of being an experienced outfielder. Colabello is a transplanted first baseman who's only purpose to being in the outfield is to fit another bat in the lineup.

The rule of thumb — which has plenty of exceptions — goes like this:

• If you can run and throw, you're a center fielder.
• If you can run but not throw, you're a left fielder.
• If you can throw but not run, you're a right fielder.
• If you can't do either, you're a first baseman.

Colabello is the latter. Kubel is number three. He throws well, but he lost whatever speed was in his tool kit about a decade ago when he wrecked his knee.

Left and right fields, at least at Target Field, pose unique challenges.

The right field wall is not only tall, it has three or four different surfaces that play differently. The right fielder's challenge is to accurately judge the carom and avoid yielding unnecessary bases.

Left field is the sun field. The April home schedule has been packed with afternoon games, and on the sunny days the ball is easily lost.

Ron Gardenhire is playing Kubel in left, Colabello in right. Since Kubel is the better defensive outfielder of the two, that implies that Gardenhire sees left as the greater challenge, at least in Target Field.

But on Sunday, when he subbed in Chris Herrmann and Darin Mastroianni to tighten the outfield defense, he put Mastroianni (the better defensive outfielder) in right and Herrmann in left.

Contradictory? Not necessarily. Perhaps the thinking was that the sun wasn't a factor on an overcast day.

Imagining the Twins outfield without Span

Denard Span is hitting .280/.344/.384 this year.

The metaphorical dam holding back the anticipated flood of pre-deadline trades appeared to break Monday afternoon. None, however, involved the Twins.

One of the names often bandied about -- last summer and this -- as trade bait is that of Denard Span, the Minnesota center fielder and leadoff hitter. I'm not going to argue that he should or shouldn't be traded -- the answer to that depends on who the Twins get in such a trade.

No, my thinking is along these lines: If Span is traded, and if the Twins don't get an outfielder who clearly should be playing as part of the deal (they probably wouldn't), what would the Twins outfield look like the rest of the way?

It's easy and obvious enough to say that Josh Willingham would remain in left field and that Ben Revere would shift over to center (and move into the leadoff spot as well). Right field is the question.

Option A: Chris Parmelee. He's spent most of his sporadic major league time at first base, but he's played almost as much right field in the minors as first.

As the roster is currently constructed, there's no real use for him; Justin Morneau/Joe Mauer/Ryan Doumit are splitting first base, DH and catcher, and Revere has taken over right field. But Parmelee has hit in Triple A (.302/.446/.510), and it makes sense to find some PT for him in the majors.


Drawback: Parmelee's not going to help the pitching staff much in right. Like Willingham, he'll have to hit to justify his lineup spot. 


Option B: Darin Mastroianni. The opposite of Parmelee: A right-handed hitter who is a good defensive outfielder, very fast, not a lot of power.


If Ron Gardenhire were so inclined, a Mastroianni-Parmelee platoon might make some sense. (It would also, as somebody -- I think Kirsten Brown -- said on Twitter a while back, sound like an Olive Garden entree.)


Drawback: Mastroianni is probably better suited to the fourth outfielder role than a regular's job.


Option C: Move Trevor Plouffe to right, with (most likely) Danny Valencia getting a fresh shot at third base.


Drawback: Valencia hasn't really earned a return. He entered Monday hitting .249/.287/.399 for Rochester.


Option D: Somebody now playing at Double A: Joe Benson, Oswaldo Arcia, Rene Tosoni.


Drawbacks: If Valencia hasn't earned a return, that goes double for Benson and Tosoni.  Arcia's been in New Britain about a month, and I can't see the Twins pushing him up two levels so quickly. If the Twins do go for one of these guys, however, I'd like to be Arcia.

For love of the glove: Denard Span, center fielder

Denard Span may be the best
defensive center fielder among the
American League's regulars, but
some of the part-timers have been
even better.

Earlier this week, I posted about what the metrics tell us about Ben Revere as a right fielder. There is no shortage of fans who believe that Revere ought to be the Twins center fielder, with Denard Span playing right field. Ron Gardenhire is obviously not among that crowd.

What about Span as a center fielder?

Turning again to the Baseball Info Systems' plus-minus and runs saved analytical stats:

Span is +13 in plus-minus, +9 in runs saved.

Good numbers, but not the best in the American League. The best numbers:

• Texas: Craig Gentry, who has about half the Rangers' innings, is +13, +9.
• Anaheim: Mike Trout, with less than half the Angels' innings, is +18, +10 -- and Peter Bourjos, who has 32 more innings in center than Trout and a little more than half of Span's time, is +9, +6.
• Toronto: Colby Rasmus is +11, +7. He's a bit shy of Span's numbers, and the only full-time center fielder in his class.

Trout was called up last month and is only leaving the Angels lineup if he gets crippled. I figure Gentry isn't a regular because his bat is perceived as a bit weak, although you can't really prove it by his limited major league playing time (334 career plate appearances, career slash line .285/.355/.356, with most of that production coming this season).

Span is a contender for best defensive CF in the league. Revere probably would be too if he were a full-time center fielder. But the Anaheim duo, at least by these measurements, is better still.

At any rate, I don't think the Twins are hurting themselves with the Span-in-center, Revere-in-right alignment.

The Willingham Shift: Wrecking the outfield defense

Josh Willingham
has been primarily
a left fielder as a
major leaguer.

Ron Gardenhire announced Sunday that he was undoing an offseason decision and returning Josh Willingham to his accustomed left field.

I am reluctant to embrace this decision and its myriad ramifications for two reasons:

1. Good organizations don't abandon their offseason plan in spring training without better rationale than I'm aware of so far;
2. This pretty much ensures another season of lousy defense.

At the core of my discontent: In reviewing the disaster that was 2011, I concluded that the organization's top priority moving on had to be reversing the defensive decline.

Nothing went well in 2011, but I figured defense came first because:

• If Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span are sound, the offensive issues largely fix themselves; if those three aren't sound, the season is doomed anyway;
• The pitching staff is dominated by pitch-to-contact guys, and that's not turning around immediately;
• Fix the defense and the pitching gets better.

The offseason plan, with Ben Revere and Span ticketed for left field and center field, certainly sacrificed power but figured to make up for it by cutting off opposition runs.

The new plan cuts back sharply on Revere's value. If he is in the lineup -- which seems far less likely -- it will be in the outfield spot at which he figures to be least valuable: right field, where his range is less useful and his popgun arm is a true detriment.

What I now expect to see -- and I'll post about this in more detail for Tuesday -- is a lot of Ryan Doumit in right.

An outfield of Willingham-Span-Doumit is no defensive improvement over 2011.

On outfielders, speed and throwing arms

Josh Willingham:
Right field or
 left field?

Ron Gardenhire has hinted this spring that he's keeping an open mind on his outfield alignment. The plan is to have Ben Revere in left, Denard Span in center and Josh Willingham in right.

For a variety of reasons, mostly relating to lineup flexibility, I favor that alignment. But that is far from a universal consensus; some think Revere's superior range should be deployed in center. Willingham has mainly played left field since moving out from behind the plate; he's willing but cautious about shifting to the other side.

Gardenhire sounds deferential to the veteran newcomer on this. The key to this decision, however, ought not be what Willingham wants, but what he can or can't do -- specifically, can he move well enough to cut off balls hit into the corner and prevent doubles (or singles) from becoming triples?

Rule of thumb:

• If you can run and throw, you play center field.
• If you can throw but can't run, you play right field.
• If you can run but can't throw, you play left field.
• If you can't do either, you play first base.

But that right-field corner thing complicates that simple description. There are no right fielders as fast as the fastest left fielder; if they're that fast and can throw, they play center. But there are also no right fielders as slow as the slowest left fielders, because there are more extra bases to be given away on the right field line.

Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel weren't fast, but they threw well enough that they weren't invitations to triples. I don't know how good Willingham's arm is; since he used to be a catcher, it ought to be decent. And it seems unlikely that he can be slower than Kubel.

The outfield plan: The alignment

Ben Revere had several memorable catches last season.

This is no real surprise: During the Twins Caravan/Twins Fest pre-spring training promotional period, manager Ron Gardenhire consistently said he wants to lock Denard Span into the center field job, with Josh Willingham in right and Ben Revere in left.

There are two potential points of contention to that plan:

• Assigning Span to center ahead of Revere;
• Making Revere a regular at all.

These are connected, but ... let's deal, today, with the alignment question. There are those -- such as Michael Rand of the Star Tribune -- who think it would be more effective to put Revere in center with Willingham in his accustomed left field and Span in right.

Examine the skill sets. None of the three has a true right field arm; Willingham, easily the slowest of the trio, is a converted catcher, which suggests he may have the strongest arm of the group. Revere has eye-popping range in center, but Span is quite good out there as well, and his arm is better than Revere's.

Gardenhire believes it's more important to keep his regulars comfortable. Willingham is used to playing left, but has agreed to shift to right -- and Gardenhire sees his part of the bargain as not moving him back and forth. Span prefers center to an outfield corner. And while Revere is the front runner for a regular position, his weaknesses could turn him into a part-timer.

That, I think, is a prime reason to go with Span in center.

It appears likely right now that the reserve outfielders will be Ryan Doumit (who'll also DH, catch and play first base) and Trevor Plouffe (converted infielder with little outfield experience). Neither is any sort of center field option. If Revere loses playing time -- if, for example, he winds up platooning with Plouffe --  Gardenhire doesn't want to move Span around.

Gardenhire is not a big platooner, but his outfield plan certainly makes it easier to go to a platoon arrangment in left. And it makes it easy to handle his RF/1B/C/DH set up, in which he has four regulars (Willingham, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Doumit) for four positions and he can mix and match to rest his position players.

Arranging the Twins outfield

Delmon Young: Part of one rebuilt Twins outfield,
now a piece to be replaced in a new restructuring.

Gone from the Twins of the past few seasons: Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young. These men were mainstays of the Minnesota outfield since 2008. Now the Twins are remaking their outfield around Denard Span (as they did after the 2007 season with Cuddyer as the holdover).

As matters stand, these players figure to play in the Twins outfield in 2012. I list them in the order of likely outfield playing time. Those above the line are likely to be on the Opening Day roster; those under are likely to at least begin 2012 in the minors.

Denard Span, cf
Josh Willingham, rf/lf/dh
Ben Revere, lf/cf
Trevor Plouffe, lf/rf
Ryan Doumit, c/rf/dh/lb
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Rene Tosoni, rf/lf
Joe Benson, rf/lf/cf
all other outfielders in the system

Willingham voiced some concern after signing with the Twins about playing right, where he has minimal experience. Terry Ryan believes Willingham has sufficient arm for the position, and he probably does, as he is a converted catcher. Certainly we can expect Willingham to get plenty of right field time in Florida.

A number of bloggers -- notably the redoubtable Aaron Gleeman -- have penciled Doumit in as the regular designated hitter. I suspect that if the Twins wind up with a regular DH it will be Justin Morneau (for health reasons). The more Morneau is the DH, the more first base somebody else has to play. That somebody else is probably either Doumit or Joe Mauer, and I'm quite sure the Twins (and Mauer) would prefer to keep Mauer behind the plate. And the more Doumit is the DH, the less valuable his defensive flexibility is -- not that he's actually proficient at any of the positions he plays. My guess is that we'll see more of Doumit at first base than anybody expects -- at least 50 games.

A blog commenter suggested last week that the Twins put Revere in center with Span in right and Willingham in left. That arrangement makes some sense, but Ron Gardenhire is very unlikely to irritate Span by moving him out of center.

Gardy believes in locking his regulars into place. It's one thing if one of his starters volunteers to shift positions, as Michael Cuddyer and Nick Punto were known to do; but absent that, he would rather keep his regulars in their comfort zone. Span is a good center fielder; he may not have Revere's range, but he's not giving up a lot to Revere, and Span throws better. Span made it known last summer that he prefers to play center; I don't see Gardenhire irritating him by making him give way to Revere.