The Willingham Shift: Ben Revere

Ben Revere: His future
now appears to be
that of a reserve outfielder.

Ben Revere opened camp as the putative left fielder. With less than a week to go, he's merely a contender for playing time in right field — the outfield spot his skill set is least suited for.

He'll still be on the 25-man roster — there's nobody else in the mix who wouldn't be an embarrassment in center field when Denard Span needs a break — but The Willingham Shift strongly suggests that the Twins have decided that Revere is a fourth outfielder.

It's a reasonable conclusion. Span and Revere are very similar players — left-handed singles hitters with speed and relatively weak arms. Span is simply better at most aspects of baseball than is Revere. Span throws better, he has more power, he has the more discerning eye at the plate. Revere is probably a bit faster, but Span isn't exactly a Molina brother.

I said this last year: There are plenty of good, even great, teams with one guy like this in their outfield. The 1927 Yankees had Earle Combs. The Yankees of the mid 70s had Mickey Rivers. The Indians in the 1990s had Kenny Lofton. The Marlins won a World Series with Juan Pierre. On and on ... Omar Moreno, Willie Wilson, Doc Cramer, Bill Verdon ...

There are few pennant winners with two of them. You need some power from your outfield corners. And Revere has less power than most of the speed merchants mentioned.

If Revere is ever to become a major league regular, it will be as a lead-off man center fielder. The Twins have a better one in Span. As long as they're on the roster together, Revere is a fourth outfielder.

It's a role that fits his skill set. He's certainly more the prototype reserve outfielder than prototype corner outfielder.

The Willingham Shift: The 25th man

Drew Butera: Is a
third catcher more
useful than a
second shortstop?

For most of camp, the assumption has been that the Twins bench would have this composition:

1. A third catcher
2. Trevor Plouffe (outfield)
3. Luke Hughes (corner infield/second base)
4. Tsuyoshi Nishioka (middle infield)

The first crack in that assumption came when Nishioka washed out. It seemed likely at that point that the Twins would be looking outside the organization for a reserve infielder who could play shortstop once a week or so.

But now it appears that Chris Parmelee will be somewhere in the starting lineup, and that Ben Revere will be  one of the four reserves:

1. Revere (outfield)
2. Plouffe
3. Hughes
4. ???

To identify the 25th man, we must first identify his role. To identify his role, we need to know what Justin Morneau can do, because Morneau's role will determine if Ryan Doumit is in the lineup at a position or as the designated hitter.

If Doumit is in the outfield (or even at first), he's more available as a mid-game substitute for Joe Mauer at catcher than if he's the designated hitter. Use the DH in the field, and the pitchers now have to bat.

The Butera Corollary to the Cuddyer Principle comes into play here: Catcher is a different beast. The Cuddyer Principle holds that one can put a right-handed major leaguer (Luke Hughes, let us say) at just about any position and get away with it for a while; put Hughes at shortstop, and it will take a few days, weeks, months to realize that he's not a shortstop. The Butera Corollary holds that if you put Hughes behind the plate, it will be real obvious within an inning that he's no catcher.

This is why managers hate being without a bona fide catcher in reserve. Ron Gardenhire is not eager to give up the DH and ask his pitchers to do something they're not trained to do (hit and run the bases); he's not eager to embarrass Hughes (or anybody else) by having him catch.

So ... If Morneau plays first base, and Doumit is the DH (with Parmelee as the usual right fielder), I would expect a third catcher. If Morneau is the standard DH, Doumit's playing time will come in in the field, and the Twins have less need for a third catcher, and could go with a shortstop-ready infielder to fill out their bench.

The Twins do have emergency options. Willingham spent most of his minor league days as a catcher; he hasn't, however, been behind the plate in years. Morneau was signed as a catcher, but was quickly moved to first base, and given his concussion history, exposing him to foul tips isn't a good idea.

As for shortstop: As written here already, the Twins don't have a good reserve shortstop option on their roster. Brian Dozier has to play, not sit.

I think it likely that a usable reserve shortstop will be available on waivers; I think it more likely that the Twins will go with a third catcher. They may not have a real use for him, but I suspect Gardenhire will feel more comfortable with that security blanket.

Friday: Ben Revere

The Willingham Shift: Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee hit
six doubles and four
homers during his
September callup.

One way to rationalize The Willingham Shift: Chris Parmelee has beaten out Ben Revere.

Ron Gardenhire probably views it that way, although he's hardly about to say it out loud, especially before the opening roster is finally set.

In a sense, this is how it should be. Both Parmelee (2006) and Revere (2007) were first-round picks out of high school, but Parmelee went earlier in his draft class and got the bigger bonus. Revere was generally seen as a bit of an overdraft at the bottom of the first round; Parmelee went about where the scouting consensus had him.

Yet Revere, despite starting a year later, reached the majors a year ahead of Parmelee.

They are, of course, very different players -- both left-handed hitters, but Revere is a speedy slap hitter, and the bulkier and slower Parmelee has displayed what Bill James years ago wrote of as "old player skills" -- lower batting average, higher walk and strikeout rates, power.

James, to my recollection, first used that term in discussing Tom Brunansky, and it may not be coincidence that Parmelee revived his flagging prospect status in a season when he had Bruno as his hitting coach.

His minor league career, in total, has been lackluster. But the Parmelee of last September and this spring training has generated consistently good at-bats, and he is said to have come on strong in the second half of 2011 in New Britain. It is certainly possible that something has clicked for Parmelee and that the talents that made him a first-round pick have finally turned into major league skills.

With Willingham in left, it's difficult to see how the lineup works without Parmelee somewhere in it. If Justin Morneau is the designated hitter, Parmelee is the obvious choice to play first; if Morneau can play first, Parmelee (who has played almost as many games in right field as at first in the minors) is a more likely choice to play right than Revere or even Trevor Plouffe. Or he could be the DH, with Ryan Doumit in right.

Having Parmelee -- seen entering camp as likely to be assigned to Triple-A Rochester -- on the major league roster will have a ripple effect on the bench. That will be the topic for Thursday.

The Willingham Shift: Ryan Doumit and Justin Morneau

Ryan Doumit may
not see as much
DH time as planned.

Underlying "The Willingham Shift," in which fellow free-agent signee Josh Willingham vacates his intended right field for his accustomed left field, appears to be the uncertain status of Justin Morneau.


Morneau is a key to whatever the 2012 Twins hope to accomplish. They need his bat in the lineup, first and foremost; they'd prefer to also have his glove at first base, but that's a secondary priority.

If Morneau can play first, then Ryan Doumit can be the primary designated hitter. But if Morneau has to DH -- and he hasn't played at first in more than a week now -- Doumit has to do something else.

This is a problem. As a designated hitter who plays once or twice a week in the field, Doumit's $3 million contract figured to be a bargain. The less often he hits, or the more often he plays a defensive position, the less valuable he becomes. As a traditional No. 2 catcher, used in the manner in which Mike Redmond was in his Twins tenure, Doumit is way overpaid.

How much first
base can Justin
Morneau play?

So Doumit's gonna play. But where?

Doumit could play first base, but he's clearly uncomfortable with the idea, and his discomfort makes Ron Gardenhire uncomfortable. Doumit started a televised game in left field early in spring training; he appeared, if anything, worse than Delmon Young, and Young was no picture of grace out there.

Doumit's most comfortable behind the plate, but Joe Mauer's the catcher. His next favored position is right field; if both Doumit and Willingham are to be in the outfield, the obvious alignment is Willingham in left and Doumit in right.

It won't be a good defensive outfield. But it keeps three bats -- Morneau, Willingham and Doumit -- in the lineup and opens up a slot for Chris Parmelee.

I'll post Wednesday on the implications for Parmelee.

The Willingham Shift: Wrecking the outfield defense

Josh Willingham
has been primarily
a left fielder as a
major leaguer.

Ron Gardenhire announced Sunday that he was undoing an offseason decision and returning Josh Willingham to his accustomed left field.

I am reluctant to embrace this decision and its myriad ramifications for two reasons:

1. Good organizations don't abandon their offseason plan in spring training without better rationale than I'm aware of so far;
2. This pretty much ensures another season of lousy defense.

At the core of my discontent: In reviewing the disaster that was 2011, I concluded that the organization's top priority moving on had to be reversing the defensive decline.

Nothing went well in 2011, but I figured defense came first because:

• If Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span are sound, the offensive issues largely fix themselves; if those three aren't sound, the season is doomed anyway;
• The pitching staff is dominated by pitch-to-contact guys, and that's not turning around immediately;
• Fix the defense and the pitching gets better.

The offseason plan, with Ben Revere and Span ticketed for left field and center field, certainly sacrificed power but figured to make up for it by cutting off opposition runs.

The new plan cuts back sharply on Revere's value. If he is in the lineup -- which seems far less likely -- it will be in the outfield spot at which he figures to be least valuable: right field, where his range is less useful and his popgun arm is a true detriment.

What I now expect to see -- and I'll post about this in more detail for Tuesday -- is a lot of Ryan Doumit in right.

An outfield of Willingham-Span-Doumit is no defensive improvement over 2011.