We're a bit more than two weeks away from opening day. Let's try a rough draft of the opening bullpen:
Closer: Brandon Kintzler
Setup 1: Ryan Pressly
Setup 2: J.T Chargois
MR 1: Matt Belisle
LOOGY 1/MR 2: Craig Breslow
LOOGY2: Buddy Boshers
Long/mopup: Justin Haley
My long distance sense is:
1) Glen Perkins hasn't faced hitters yet and isn't close to being ready.
2) The absolute locks to be on the roster are Kintzler, Pressly and Belisle,
3) Breslow, who is not on the 40-man roster, entered camp with management wanting him to make the team. He's been effective with his new delivery, and I think he'll stick.
4) Haley got a start this week and may get another before the WBC contingent returns next week, but I doubt the Twins are bold enough to give a rotation berth to a Rule 5 pick. I assume they want to keep him, however,
5) Chargois has options, and that might work against him. He also has the biggest arm of the genuine bullpen candidates. If he gets shipped out to avoid putting somebody like Michael Tonkin on waivers, the Twins are making a mistake.
6) I count three genuine candidates for that second LOOGY spot: Boshers, Taylor Rodgers and Ryan O'Rourke. There's probably not a dime's worth of difference among them. I have no specific reason to pick Boshers for this guess, and no reason to pick against any of them.