Notes, quotes and comment

Justin Morneau says he has no doubts about his availability for spring training. Not that he's ready to roll now; autographs yes, baseball, not quite:

It's encouraging. Two months ago, I couldn't have come out and sat that long and signed, so it's come a long ways. It's not all the way better yet, but it's close.

Obviously the early October talk about maybe having him for the World Series was overly optimistic. On multiple levels.

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From Phil (Consider the Source) Rogers of the Chicago Tribune:

Tuesday is the deadline for the 35 players ... offered arbitration to accept those offers. Only a few are likely to do so. Among those believed to be considering the offers are Juan Uribe Giants), Orlando Hudson (Twins) and Miguel Olivo (Blue Jays). …

The Hudson notion contradicts the conventional speculation -- I won't elevate it to the status of conventional wisdom -- that he and the Twins have a gentleman's agreement that he'll decline. I don't profess to have any actual knowledge, but I expect him to decline, if only because the Twins have made it clear they don't really want him back. As a free agent, he has considerable control on where he plays in 2011; if he accepts arbitration, he has none.

Speaking of Rogers, I thought his notion last week about  of trading Chicago general managers was bizzare, but he was apparently just warming up. This Sunday's column is landing places for Derek Jeter, and it takes some fevered imagination.

Like this sample:

Twins: Because the Twins can't beat Jeter, maybe they can sign him. The Twins aren't crazy about J.J. Hardy, which is why they have negotiated for the rights to talk contract with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the .346-hitting shortstop of the Chiba Lotte Marines, and have had preliminary talks with the Red Sox about (Marco) Scutaro. Adding a guy with Jeter's presence could be the equivalent of adding a front-line starter, which is the piece that has seemed lacking.

Oh boy.

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Poll stuff: We had 48 participants in the "who will sign Cliff Lee" poll.

Thirty-eight (79 percent) say the Yankees; eight (16 percent) say Texas; two (4 percent) say someone else.

New poll up.

Ow-ie-oh, Magglio (and other injuries)

Magglio Ordonez fractured his right ankle on the pictured slide Saturday and was almost immediately reported to be out six to eight weeks.

This had ramifications immediate and long term. For the here and now, the Detroit Tigers have lost their usual No. 3 hitter, and they've had enough trouble scoring runs with him in the lineup. It also means he's highly unlikely to meet the at-bat requirements to get his contract extension to kick in, potentially allowing the Tigers to get out from under his heavy salary this winter.

The Tigers have already lost Brandon Inge to a fractured hand; the third baseman is also out six to eight weeks. And Carlos Guillen, their current second baseman, left Saturday's game with a pulled leg muscle. In Guillen's case, an injury is hardly a surprise, but that doesn't make it any less a problem.

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The Twins have injury/roster issues of their own. Orlando Hudson probably would be on the disabled list already if they had an easy move to make. But they don't:

• Justin Morneau has reportedly begun some workouts, but still has hurdles to clear before returning from his concussion. LaVelle Neal speculates Aug. 2 for Morneau, but even that might be optimistic.
• Matt Tolbert isn't able to throw yet.
• Brendan Harris — who has reportedly started to hit down at Triple A — is no longer on the 40-man roster, and the easy ways to open a slot on the 40 are gone.
• Luke Hughes, who is on the 40, is out with his own injury.
• Trevor Plouffe has limited experience at any position other than shortstop.
• Even Alexi Casilla, who has gotten the playing time at second since Hudson's injury, is hampered. A note in the Pioneer Press when he was activated off the DL said he still has "minor discomfort" when swinging the bat right-handed (which may have played into his eighth-inning bunt on Friday against a lefty reliever).

Upshot: If Hudson goes on the DL today, it may be for a 13th pitcher.

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Poll results: 30 responses to the "who'll win the AL Central" poll. Twenty-one (70 percent) picked the Twins, seven (23 percent) picked the White Sox) and two (7 percent) the Tigers.

New poll up.

Eight points about Orlando Hudson

1) He is a switch-hitter who is notably stronger against right-handed pitchers (career OPS as LH hitter .796, as RH hitter .725). As a counterpoise to the Twins left-handed bats (Joe Mauer-Justin Morneau-Jason Kubel-Denard Span), he's lacking.

2) He is slated to hit second for the Twins, but he has actually been a more effective hitter batting third — OPS .793 in 979 plate appearances in the three-hole, .770 in 1,264 PA second.

That is more likely to be the result of environment than batting order. Most of his time hitting third came with Arizona, and the Diamondbacks' home park is a very good place to hit, certainly better than his home park last season.

3) His highest OPS in four American League seasons: .779 (2004, with Toronto). His lowest OPS in four National League seasons: .774 (2009, Los Angeles).

4) He has been the regular second baseman for two playoff teams in the past three seasons, but has a total of four postseason plate appearances — part of a pattern of late-season injuries.

In 2007, when Arizona won the NL West title, Hudson broke his thumb in August. Done after 107 games. In 2008 — not a playoff season — he dislocated his wrist in September. In 2009, with Los Angeles, he got benched late in the season in favor of Ronnie Belliard. There was speculation that his wrist was bothering him last September and October, but he denies it.

5) He is not particularly fast — mobile enough to handle a middle infield job, but not a true burner. Even in his 20s, he never hit double digits in triples and only once stole as many as 10 bases. Last year he was eight of nine stealing — a very good percentage, but not a lot of attempts.

Baseball Info System's baserunning stats make him +8 last season, most of that from the base stealing.

6) His career is following a pattern that appears to be a new standard — the first four (cheap) seasons with his first team (Toronto); the late-arbitration/first free agency seasons with a second team (Arizona); and a nomad phase now that he's in his 30s.

We are seeing few long-term contracts these days for non-superstars ages 30 and up. Blame (or credit) the Bill James influence for this; increasing numbers of front offices now know that the vast majority of players peak at age 27, and that from age 30 on, half of the players wash out of the majors every two years.

7) Hudson was selected in the 43rd round of the 1997 amateur draft, Not many players selected that late make it to the majors, much less enjoy the success Hudson has.

In 2002, when he was regarded as the Blue Jays' top prospect, he lost out on the second base job in spring training to Joey Lawrence, who had been a first-round pick in 1996. Lawrence washed out, and Hudson got the job a bit belatedly.

This might be seen as evidence that first-round picks get more chances than 48th round picks. Or it might be linked to a Hudson quote that spring about then-new Toronto general manager J.P. Riccardi:

“When I first met J.P., I thought, ‘Smooth cat – smooth-lookin’ cat. He looks like he was a pimp back in his day.”

Riccardi, it is safe to say, was not amused.

7) Through all the shifts in context, he has been remarkably consistent in overall value. His high in win shares since 2003 is 21; his low is 15. To put that in context, Alexi Casilla has 14 win shares in his entire career.

8) He is a very pronounced ground ball hitter. Last season, according to Baseball Info Systems, he had 2.17 grounders to every fly ball — the sixth highest such ratio in the majors.

Twins land their infielder

Second baseman Orlando Hudson — four-time Gold Glover, two-time All-Star — agreed to a one-year deal with the Twins late Thursday.

Hudson's 32, and while there is chatter that his play has fallen off since he dislocated his wrist late in the 2008 season, it's difficult to find evidence of that in his stats.

Pondering now the implications for the Twins roster ... Here's a likely default lineup, from which Ron Gardenhire will vary for reasons of injury, slumps, matchups, periodic days off and managerial whim:

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Jason Kubel, DH
6. Michael Cuddyer, RF
7. J.J. Hardy, SS
8. Delmon Young, LF
9. Nick Punto, 3B

I can imagine Hardy and Young being transposed. I figure Punto ranks ahead of Brendan Harris because Punto is the better fielder and baserunner and has the better on-base percentage. Harris' one advantage over Punto is power, and we're not talking Jim Thome here.

That's a pretty solid lineup.

The bench, on the other hand:

• Thome, hitting specialist
• reserve catcher (Jose Morales, Drew Butera or Wilson Ramos)
• reserve outfielder (Jason Pridie has the edge) — to be a defensive sub for Young or Kubel, back up Span, to pinch run for Kubel or Thome. Legs and a glove.
• Harris or Punto, whoever isn't playing third

There's no room there for either Alexi Casilla or Matt Tolbert, and both (I believe) are out of options. It's certainly possible that the Twins could slip either through waivers, although I can think of a couple of teams in the Twins division that might be better off with Tolbert in their lineup than with the infielders they currently have.

I rather suspect that Gardenhire would prefer Tolbert to Harris. But Harris has a new two-year contract. And I have difficulty imagining Gardenhire feeling comfortable with Punto or Tolbert in the outfield in anything other than an emergency or a blowout.

A surplus of utility infielders is not normally regarded as the basis from which to make a trade. But if the Twins can move one of those guys — Punto, Harris, Tolbert or Casilla — for a more reliable fourth outfielder, they should.

Orlando Cabrera and other roster issues

Orlando Cabrera has reportedly reached an agreement with the Cincinnati Reds, pending physical and other formalities.

Ron Gardenhire, even after the Twins traded for J.J. Hardy, talked about wanting to keep Cabrera to play second base. From this distance, it's unclear if Cabrera didn't like that idea or if other people in the Twins organization didn't like that idea. At any rate, Cabrera and his diminishing range will be deployed at short again this year, just not in Minnesota.

All this further drives down the possibility of adding another veteran infielder. Reports out of TwinsFest this weekend downplayed the Joe Crede notion, and I had already written off the notion of a third base acquisition anyway because of the pinch-hitting implications.

Orlando Hudson might still be a possibility, but one must remember — he lost his job in L.A. to Ronnie Belliard last summer.

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When the Jim Thome signing is finalized — he was supposed to have a physical while in town for TwinsFest — somebody will have to come off the 40-man roster. That should happen in the next day or so.

While I still expect Glen Perkins to be traded, it now appears that won't happen until he's demonstrated in exhibition games that his shoulder is sound. And for that matter, one never knows that injuries will pop up among the Twins pitchers. They may still need Perkins.

Alexi Casilla had a good playoff series in the Dominican this winter, and unless the Twins do bring in a veteran infielder, he's in the mix for a lineup spot. He and Matt Tolbert are both out of options, and it's difficult to see both of them making the 25-man roster.

LaVelle Neal suggested that the Twins could carry them both over Jason Pridie, but I believe the only way that's happening if if Gardenhire is comfortable with the notion of playing one of the infielders in center for three or four days if and when Denard Span gets one of those day-to-day nagging injuries that don't merit putting him on the disabled list.

Yeah, Michael Cuddyer played some center last season, but that was in Wrigley Field, the smallest center field area in the majors. In normal parks, Cuddyer in center is an invitation to triples.

The infield market

As anticipated, the Twins did offer arbitration to pitcher Carl Pavano, which means the Twins will either retain the veteran right-hander or pick up a compensatory draft pick next summer. Pavano's agent has been diligently seeking offers elsewhere, and if the price for Pavano is a multi-year contract, the Twins should be willing to walk away and take the draft pick.

But that's only part of the Twins-relevant news out of Tuesday's arbitration deadline. Two Type A second basemen — Placido Polanco and Orlando Hudson — were not offered arbitration, which means a team signing either will not forfeit its first-round pick next summer. This makes them much more attractive to Minnesota.

And to plenty of others as well. The Twins are, by my rough estimation, one of 10 teams with a middle-infield hole to plug. And I see eight middle-infield Type A or B free agents, with the second basemen better value than the shortstops (Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera and Marco Scutaro). The Twins generally aren't players in bidding wars, and if Boston is serious about the notion of moving Dustin Pedroia to short, they would be the biggest gorilla in the second-base jungle.

On the other hand, a number of the teams with a middle infield opening are thinking young and/or real cheap. It's difficult to imagine the Padres throwing millions at a 30-something keystoner.

Then too, the Twins have made it pretty clear that they have one infield opening — either second or third base. J.J. Hardy's the shortstop, and Nick Punto (above) is going to have one of the other jobs.

I can imagine the Twins setting up a Dutch auction of sorts for that infield job. Make offers to eight free agents — say, Polanco, Hudson, Tejada, Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa and Pedro Feliz — and tell them all: First to accept this offer gets the job, no haggling.