Where they stand: Shortstop

Presumed regular: Jorge Polanco

Others on the 40-man roster: Ehire Adrianza, Ronald Torreyes, Nick Gordon

Nonroster notables: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier

The signing of Jonathan Schoop put to rest the notion that Polanco would move to second base. I am of the belief that Polanco is stretched to play shortstop, and I thought that the ouster of Paul Molitor as manager removed the organization's biggest advocate of playing Polanco at short.

And maybe Polanco will eventually wind up at second. Schoop is on a one-year deal, and Lewis is charging up the organizational ladder, and even if the Twins step up their reliance on shifts to mask a lack of range in the infield they may well conclude at some point that they have to sacrifice some offense in the middle infield to help the pitching staff.

For now, however, "Hip-Hip Jorge" is the shortstop, and probably their most reliable on-base guy as they enter the post-Mauer era. Polanco isn't a notable base stealer, but he might be their best bet to hit leadoff.

He also isn't a notable long ball threat, but he's had (very slightly) more plate appearances as the No. 3 hitter than anywhere else in the lineup in his brief major league career, and he hit third a lot in the minors.

Polanco perpetually feels to me like a round peg in a square hole. He doesn't really fit at shortstop. but this will be the third straight season in which he's the Twins best option for the position. He isn't a classic leadoff or No. 3 hitter, but he is probably going to lock down one of those two crucial lineup slots this year. He'll certainly hit in one of the first three slots in the batting order.

It's entirely possible that I will spend his entire Twins career grumbling about him being misused. And I probably shouldn't. He may not be a perfect fit, but he certainly makes the team better.

Polanco's suspension

You probably heard by now: Jorge Polanco, the Twins shortstop, got hit Sunday with an 80-game steroid suspension. Not only will he miss the first half of the season, he's ineligible for the playoffs should the Twins get that far.

It's the second time in four years that Twins are coming out of spring training with a significant player suspended for testing positive for the steroid Stanozolol. In 2015, it was Ervin Santana.

There's nothing good in this suspension for the Twins. Polanco may not be the best defensive shortstop in camp, but he finished his roller-coaster 2017 as the Twins' No. 3 hitter.

But if there is a position at which the Twins have the depth to absorb losing their starter for half the season, it's shortstop. Presumably they can divvy up the job among Eduardo Escobar, who hit 21 homers lsst season; Ehire Adrianza, a superior gloveman; and veteran Erick Aybar, a former All-Star and Gold Glove winner whose career is on the wane.

But the possible (likely?) suspension of Miguel Sano in a #MeToo investigation complicates that. That trio may have to cover for two infield regulars, not just one.

A shortstop comment

A Mike Berardino tweet from Friday:

Molitor is getting his first look at Nick Gordon this spring. Says debate continues over best position. "Doesn't have a plus arm" at SS.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) March 10, 2017

Well ...

Molitor has had Gordon in camp for about a month now, and between games and drills has certainly seen him throw more than I have. And the notion that Gordon may not have the tools for shortstop echo the commentary on Gordon in this year's Baseball America Prospect Handbook, so Molitor is not alone in this thinking.

But I am confident in this assertion: Gordon has a better arm than Jorge Polanco, and Molitor seems determined to fit that round peg into the square hole of shortstop.

Gordon isn't making the team this spring and never was in the running, and I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be among Monday's first dose of cuts. On the other hand, those cuts are expected to focus more on 40-man roster guys who aren't serious contenders for the opening roster (because if they get hurt while in big league camp, they go on the major league DL, and that's more expensive than the minor league DL). On that basis, Engelb Vielma would be a more likely demotion than Gordon.

But the playing time in exhibitions is going to go to Polanco, Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianaza, and maybe Danny Santana as well. These are the serious contenders for the starting job and the bench.

Three tangents on A-Rod

I wrote either too much or not enough about Alex Rodriguez for the Monday print column. If you want more on the subject from me, you're in luck; if not, well, it's my blog and you can't stop me.

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Few teams have boasted the top-level talent of the Seattle Mariners in the 1990s. Ken Griffey Jr. was a Gold Glove center fielder who hit more than 600 homers. Alex Rodriguez was a Gold Glove shortstop who hit more than 600 homers. Randy Johnson, left-handed pitcher, won more than 300 games and struck out almost 5,000 hitters. There's a decent argument to be made for each as the greatest player ever at their position. (I'll even accept it for Johnson).

And backing them up were some other pretty darn good players. Edgar Martinez has a legit Cooperstown case. Jamie Moyer won 270 games himself. Jay Buhner was a quality right fielder. Dan Wilson (former Gopher) was a solid receiver.

And what did the M's accomplish with this terrific talent? Not much.

They had the misfortune to be in the same league as the Derek Jeter dynasty Yankees, a team that was deeper than the M's and not much behind them in front-line talent. Griffey and Johnson forced trades as they neared free agency, and Rodriguez fled for bigger money as soon as he could. And after those three were gone, the Mariners had their best season, when the rookie Ichiro Suzuki arrived from Japan and the M's won 116 games -- and got beat by the Yanks in the playoffs.

Twins fans beef about Ron Gardenhire's inability to navigate his team past the Yanks in the postseason in the 2000s, and to be sure, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Johan Santana were a pretty salty trio on which to base a roster. But Gardy's Twins were not more disappointing than Lou Piniella's Mariners.

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Somebody dubbed them "the Trinity" -- three glorious shortstops who hit the American League pretty much simultaneously in the mid 1990s. A-Rod. Jeter. Nomar Garciaparra. Miguel Tejada broke in about the same time too, but without the hype and expectations. Sprinkle in the veteran Omar Vizquel, and the American League had five Cooperstown-level shortstops jostling each other for All-Star berths for about a decade.

My guess is that at most three of those five will actually get into the Hall, and maybe only one. Jeter, obviously. Vizquel, the least of the five as a hitter, has a chance to be seen by the electorate as the equivalent of the enshrined Luis Aparicio. Rodriguez and Tejada have the steroid taint on their resumes, and they will need a more forgiving electorate (which may be coming) to get in. And Garciaparras body started to betray him in his late 20s; he was finished as a regular in his mid 30s.

We have a somewhat similar wave of shortstop talent hitting the majors today: Xander Bogearts, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell, Corey Seager. Appreciate them. From my perch today, it seems so recent that A-Rod and Jeter had their futures ahead of them.

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World War II ended in 1945. From that time until 1974, when Robin Yount debuted, only two shortstops destined for Cooperstown broke in: Ernie Banks and Aparicio. That's almost 30 years.

Draw up a list of the all-time great shortstops, and you might be startled at the recentness of the list.

It starts, of course, with somebody whose peak was more than a century ago: Honus Wagner. But for my tastes -- and your opinion may differ -- most of the rest of the top 10 are guys I saw play: Jeter and A-Rod, Yount and Cal Ripken, Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell and Ozzie Smith. (Trammell's not in the Hall, but he ought to be.) You can line them up however you want and sprinkle in the likes of Joe Cronin, Banks, Arky Vaughn and Luke Appling as you prefer, but those seven are there.

I've listed 13 "shortstops" in this segment. But Yount spent almost half his career in the outfield, Banks actually played more games at first base than at short and Rodriguez, as noted in the print column, has almost as many games at third base as at shortstop. Ripken ended his career at third; Wagner, oddly, didn't become a regular shortstop until he was 29. The top-flight guys who actually spent their careers at shortstop are pretty darn rare.

Eduardo Escobar, shortstop

Eduardo Escobar hits his second homer of Wednesday's game.
He hit three in the Tampa Bay series.

Question: How many games did the Twins cost themselves this year by insisting for months that Danny Santana was their best shortstop option?

For the second year in a row, Eduardo Escobar began the season as Plan B at shortstop and emerged as the regular. And for the second year in a row, he has provided some thump from a position commonly occupied by slap hitters. LaVelle Neal of the Star Tribune refers to him on Twitter as "Eddie The Stick."

This intrigues me, even though they involve too few at-bats to mean much: When playing shortstop this year, Escobar's slash line is .308/.361/.519 (entering Thursday's play, which means those numbers are even better this morning); as a left fielder, .224/.261/.388.

The defensive metrics I've seen have Escobar as an average shortstop, maybe a touch below average, and I'll buy that. That's acceptable, especially with the extra bases he's provided the past two years from the position.

I assume that Escobar will be the Twins' regular shortstop down the stretch. I also expect that he won't be a lock to be the regular at the start of 2016. I doubt the Twins have given up on Santana's athleticism, and Jorge Polanco has been a very productive hitting middle infielder in the high minors. Even now, Paul Molitor hasn't truly embraced Escobar as the starter, so he's probably inclined to look for alternatives.

And given Escobar's limitations, that's sensible. But I doubt the Twins have a better alternative on hand until 2018 or so, when one of the shortstops in the low minors might be ready. Certainly for now, Escobar should be Plan A at shortstop. 

Contemplating the shortstop situation

Danny Santana turns a double play in Kansas City.
Despite the Twins' issues at shortstop, they are among
the American League leaders at turning two.

Here be uncertainty and doubt.

Paul Molitor has started four different shortstops so far, which by itself doesn't signify much. He's started five different third basemen (Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Doug Bernier and Miguel Sano), but there's no question that Plouffe is the regular. (The other four have a total of eight starts.)

Short is another matter. Danny Santana made his 56th start there on Friday, but he's also had a brief demotion to Triple A. Escobar, the more-or-less regular last season, got a brief run there (17 starts); of late Nunez has been Molitor's choice if Santana isn't in the lineup. (The fourth shortstop, Jorge Polanco, was a one-day callup.)

Molitor and his bosses seem determined to find a regular shortstop in Santana, and Santana's not really cooperating with the effort. His slash line (.213/.235/.287 entering Friday's game) was second-worst in the AL among players with at least 100 plate appearances, and his 13 errors are the third most in the league at the position.

I don't really understand the reluctance to give Escobar a sustained run there again. He led the league's regular shortstops in OPS last season, and was by all measurements at least a league-average glove at the position. He may not have the athletic gifts of Santana, but he isn't an embarrassment at the position. (I will note, however, that in his limited playing time this year the double plays have been less frequently turned.)

Molitor seems more interested in using Escobar as a multi-position semi-regular, the sort of superutility guy that Ron Gardenhire talked a lot about but never really embraced in practice. As I've said before, that kind of player has to have a decent bat. While Escobar isn't hitting as well this season as last, he does have a better slugging percentage than six of the Twins' nine "regulars" as listed by Baseball Reference.

Nunez has hit impressively this year -- Molitor has picked his spots well, with a focus on pitting Nunez against pitchers with velocity -- but his defensive reputation is exceedingly poor. I can't see him getting everyday duty, particularly at a defense-first position.

As for Polanco: The prospect has moved up to Triple A, and was charged with six errors in his first six games at that level. I think second base is his destination; even if he does have a major league future at short, that does nothing for the Twins present.

Polanco's presence in Rochester may signal a determination to keep Santana in the majors. Putting both of them at Triple A would mean playing one of them at second base, and the Twins probably want to see both of them playing shortstop, partly for developmental reasons and partly because they aren't in need of a second baseman.

The shortstop non-competition

Eduardo Escobar led
regular AL shortstops
in OPS last year.

The Twins came into spring training with new manager Paul Molitor saying two somewhat contradictory things about shortstop: First, that he was't "prejudging" the competition between incumbent Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana, who spent most of 2014 in center. Second, that he views Santana as a shortstop.

Considering how well Santana hit in his major league time last year -- an OPS of .824 -- there was never much doubt that Santana will be in the lineup. It was just a question of where. And the question of where seems answered: Shortstop.

Santana hasn't played any outfield this spring that I'm aware of. The center field competition, which opened with Aaron Hicks, Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson, has expanded, but to include Eddie Rosario, not Santana.

I remain a skeptic on Santana. There's no reason to expect a guy with a .708 minor league OPS to continue to post a major league .824 OPS, and I don't expect him to be a defensive upgrade over Escobar. But this will play itself out. Santana will open the season at short, but I won't be surprised if he plays himself out of the job by the All-Star break.

If that happens, the Twins still might not restore Escobar to the job. Jorge Polanco might get the call. I sense that the Twins see Escobar as a low-ceiling shortstop, and they'd rather try some high ceiling guys first. I can't really argue with that proposition, other than to wish that they apply that same philosophy to the starting rotation,

The Twins by position: Shortstop, part two

As I see it, the Twins this spring have a choice between a adequate but unspectacular shortstop (Eduardo Escobar) and a slightly younger one with a higher ceiling and a lower floor (Danny Santana.)

I also see signs that other teams see Escobar as better suited to a reserve role than as a regular.

During the winter meetings, both Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan described Escobar as having hit 40 doubles. Which he didn't. He hit 37. (Had he been the regular shortstop all year he probably would have gotten to 40, but he sat behind the punchless Pedro Florimon in April.)

The inference I drew from this modest puffery of a player they are inclined to bench: They were trying to drum up a trade market. Historically, a bona fide regular shortstop is worth a starting pitcher, and that was a likely goal.

But nobody bit, and with spring training just a bit more than two weeks away, it appears the Twins will have both Escobar and Santana.

If Santana is to be the regular shortstop in 2015, this winter was probably the peak of Escobar's trade value. Instead, he's likely to serve as an insurance policy for Santana.

And given the genuine questions about Santana's defense at a defense-first position, that might sound like the wisest course -- except that the Twins also have Jorge Polanco climbing the ladder rather rapidly. Polanco might be better suited for second base, but he was named the best defensive shortstop in the high A Florida State League in Baseball America's annual poll of league managers.

I beleive in Escobar more than I do in Santana. But I do see a logic in giving the superior athlete a clear shot at the job -- this is, after all, a building project, not a team likely to lose the pennant by screwing up the shortstop position. If Santana fails, there's not only Polanco but Escobar to turn to.

The Twins by position: Shortstop, part one

Eduardo Escobar turns a double play last season.

Shortstop is one of two positions at which the Twins won't enter camp with an obvious starter.

Or maybe the starter is obvious and I just don't want to admit it.

Danny Santana is going to play somewhere. He was too good last year -- .319/.353/.472 slash line, OPS+ 30 percent above league average -- not to. But there are buts: He never performed anywhere near that level in the minors, and ought not be expected to match that level of production.

He did that hitting while playing mostly centerfield, an unaccustomed position. He was mostly a shortstop in the minors -- short with a little second base, and he hadn't played second in more than a year.

Paul Molitor has been pretty emphatic about Santana this offseason: He wants to return Santana to his accustomed role as a shortstop.

There are three problems with that plan in my eyes:

• Santana is, as long as Bryon Buxton is ruled out of the majors after his injury-riddled 2014, probably the best of a sorry set of choices for center field;
• Santana has never been regarded as a good or even average defensive shortstop in the minors;
• Eduardo Escobar, who emerged as the regular shortstop last season, did nothing to suggest that he needs to be replaced.

I'll discuss the center field situation in a future post, so set that aside for now.

Escobar hit .275/.315/.406 last year with 37 doubles. His OPS was 102, two percent above league, which is perfectly acceptable for a shortstop.

Question: How sustainable is that level of production for Escobar?

The general view seems to be that he's not really a league average hitter. I'm not quite so dismissive. It's easy to lose track of this fact: He spent basically a year and half rotting on the bench for two teams (White Sox and Twins) in his age 23-24 seasons. The Twins sent him to Triple A for the second half of the 2013 season, and he mashed: .307/.380./.500. He opened 2014 on the Twins bench, got a chance to play when Pedro Florimon flopped, and performed well enough that Ron Gardenhire never worked up the nerve to pull him for Santana despite hints from the front office.

Question: How good is his defense compared to Santana?

This is a case in which I hesitate to turn to the defensive metrics. Even the most avid defenders of the various systems will readily concede that it takes three years to get a sufficient sample size for the numbers to measure ability, and we don't have even a full year at short for either in this case.

For what it's worth, the runs saved system rates Escobar for his career as -2 as a shortstop per 1,200 innings, meaning he costs his team two runs compared to an average defensive shortstop. It puts Santana at -4.

What that is worth isn't much. This is truly a case in which the eyeball test is relevant. And I know of nobody who has watched much of Santana in the minors who's been impressed with his defense. The tools, yes. The use of them, no. I watched him some in spring training last year before they sent him down, and he was giving away outs.

I can't say that Escobar looked like Ozzie Smith, or even Florimon, in the field last year, but I'm comfortable with asserting that he's an average defensive shortstop. He doesn't have great range, but he's not giving away an out a game.

An average defensive shortstop who can hit a bit is not to be idly discarded. Which is something I'll explore in a followup post.