Goodbye, Molitor

It's easier to fire the manager than to fire 25 players. The Twins might spend a lot of this offseason doing both.

Starting with Paul Molitor, relieved of his managerial duties Tuesday.

Not everything that went wrong for the 2018 Twins can be fairly blamed on the manager.

It's not on Molitor that Ervin Santana's finger didn't heal with an offseason of rest or recover from surgery. Nor is it his fault that Jorge Polanco got busted for steroids or that Jason Castro's knee gave way.

But ... this was a team with the highest payroll in club history, it was expected to contend, and it didn't. The fielding was poor and the baserunning worse. And, perhaps most crucially, the young core at the heart of the roster did not develop. Even Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios only duplicated their 2017 performances. The Twins enter this offseason far less certain of what they have than they were a year ago.

Dumping Molitor was always a possibility once Terry Ryan was ousted as the head of the Twins baseball operations. Molitor was forced on the front office duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine two offseasons ago; now they get to hire a manager of their own choosing.

Still, I was a bit surprised at the news Tuesday. Not only did Molitor still have two years left to run on his contract, he seemed -- with the possible exception of whether Polanco is a bona fide shortstop -- to mesh well with their new front office's analytic bent.

The Twins on Tuesday also dismissed their longtime major league strength and conditioning coordinator and a number of minor league coaches. It seems likely that there will be further changes on the major league staff. Slowly but surely, the Ryan-era figures -- players, managers, coaches -- are giving way to the new regime. In some cases, it seems, they are being ousted simply because they were there when the new guys showed up.

That may not be fair, but that's pretty routine around baseball. We're just not used to that in Minnesota.

Bringing Molitor back, the conclusion

Paul Molitor and Derek Falvey dismissed on Tuesday the theory that the delay between the invitation for Molitor to continue as manager and his acceptance signaled some sort of rift or friction betweem the manager and the front office.

Even dismissing Neil Allen as pitching coach was not close to a deal breaker, as Molitor described it.

Speculation and interpretation aside, the result is obvious: Molitor has a three-year extension and the rest of the coaching staff is expected back, although some roles may shift.

I wish Allen well, not only in terms of landing a new job somewhere but in terms of maintaining his sobriety. I suspect there are organizations that would have dumped Allen after his drunk-driving arrest in May 2016, and I further suspect Allen knows it:

“I had a wonderful conversation with Mollie,” Allen said in a phone interview. “I pointed out I can never thank (former GM) Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor enough for what they did for me. Mollie and I talked every day. We had a routine. We got to know each other very well. I absolutely loved the man. I made a great friend.”

That from Mike Berardino's story in the Pioneer Press.

Meanwhile, the reshaping of the organization continued, with the Twins hiring a new farm director. Jeremy Zoll comes out of the Dodger organization. He's 27 and succeeds Brad Steil, who becomes the pro scouting director.

Molitor stays, Allen departs

Neil Allen will
not return as
pitching coach.

The Twins announced Monday that Paul Molitor had accepted a three-year extension as manager. Also Monday, pitching coach Neil Allen told reporters that he had been fired.

I can imagine that Derek Falvey relented on salary and/or contract length for Molitor but not on replacing Allen. Remember, Falvey's area of proported expertise at Cleveland was developing pitchers, and he now has opened up probably the two most important positions in the organization in that field, major league pitching coach and minor league pitching coordinator.

Obviously, Neil Allen should've done more w/ those 35 hurlers sent thru here. Better coaching ... that Adam Wilk could've been an ace.

— Patrick (PJ) Reusse (@1500ESPN_Reusse) October 10, 2017

Reusse has a point about the raw material Allen had to work with. Coaching goes only so far. Talent matters, and the Twins ran out a number of pitchers who really have no business on a major league roster in this high velocity era. (Of the 36, 14 had worse Fielding Independent Pitching ratings than catcher and blow-out specialist Chris Gimenez.)

My sense, which may be mistaken, the past three years was that Allen was overly determined to make every pitcher work his way. I remember hearing an in-game interview with Allen during spring training in which he made a sarcastic wisecrack about Kyle Gibson reworking his mechanics and routine over the offseason. I don't know what worked for Gibson and what didn't, what he kept and what he jettisoned, but I know that:

• what Gibson had been doing didn't work for him physically or on the field in 2016;
• he had a strong August and September this year; and
• Falvey's former organization seems quite open to individual experimentation with programs, with Trevor Bauer being an obvious example.

The improvement in the Twins in run prevention this year can be attributed not to the pitching or even the emergence of Jose Berrios, but to the improved defense (and even the improved team defensive metrics appear to be almost entirely Byron Buxton in center).

Mike Berardino listed several in-house possibilities for Allen's former post, but I expect Falvey to reach outside the organization. One interesting question is how much input Molitor will have on the selection.

Bringing back Molitor, a continuing saga

On Thursday night, there were reports that the Twins would have an official announcement on Paul Molitor's new contract on Friday.

There wasn't. The word Friday was that this won't be resolved until next week.

Evaluating this from the outside:

* The public pressure is on the Twins. Brian Dozier has been quoted: "One hundred percent, I speak for everybody else in here, we hope he’s back.” The metro columnists are, predictably, in favor of retaining him. To the extent that Molitor has leverage in these negotiations, it's the vocal player and media support for him.

* Other leverage is with the front office.

It is entirely reasonable to believe that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in July expected to dismiss Molitor at seasons end and that they had specific candidates in mind. (Two names from Cleveland, Falvey's former organization, have been linked to the job already: Micky Callaway and Sandy Alomar Jr., the latter of whom was among the candidates Molitor beat out three winters ago.) I doubt they are particularly worried about running these talks aground. In a sense, the worst that can happen is that they wind up with the manager they expected three months ago.

At the very least, if Molitor returns -- and I expect he will -- it will be on Falvine's terms, not Molitor's.

The Dozier quote, I'll take with a grain of salt. The idea that any manager is universally beloved in his clubhouse is somewhere short of credible. Casey Stengel supposedly said of managing that on any team, Five guys love you, five hate you and the rest are undecided. The secret of managing is to keep the five who hate you away from the 15 who haven't made up their minds.

We can assume Dozier is in the "love him" camp.

As for the metro columnist support, I've developed a rather deep contempt for their collective baseball wisdom. If Jim Souhan says the sun is shining, carry your umbrella.

As for my position: Tune in to the Monday print column.

Bringing back Molitor

Two beat writers, two tweets:

From @LaVelleNeal:  Paul Molitor will return to manage Twins https://t.co/Gjsh1XFHx6 pic.twitter.com/33R54lf6NN

— Star Tribune Sports (@StribSports) October 5, 2017

I'm told Paul Molitor has indeed been invited back for 2018, but source w/direct knowledge says "nothing has been decided or agreed to" yet.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) October 5, 2017

The Strib tweet is more defenitive, but the Neal story -- like Berardino's -- notes that there were unresolved details Thursday night.

Managerial agreements have been known to derail over salary, coaching staff and authority, and  the second may be in play here:

Molitor, plus his coaches were at Target Field today. Sense remains that full status quo with everyone back is unlikely. #mntwins

— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) October 5, 2017

If Falvine is demanding a coaching staff change with Molitor resisting, my guess is that the tug-of-war involves pitching coach Neil Allen. Derek Falvey played a particular role in Cleveland in their pitching development process, and he is soon to be free to raid his old organization (the agreement to let him come to Minnesota included a one-year ban on the Twins hiring Cleveland personnel). I would be astounded if he didn't raid that organization for a pitching guru or two or three.

The Twins have created openings in their minor league system by dismissing minor league pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen, and one report suggests they will split that role into two positions, one for the high minors (Double and Triple A) and one for low minors/rehab. So even if Allen is kept on, there are ways for Falvey to cross pollinate the Twins system with Cleveland's.

Molitor's misplaced notion on Polanco

Paul Molitor once again this weekend aired his discontent with the handling last season of Jorge Polanco -- specifically that the young infielder played not an inning of shortstop at Triple A.

The implication is that Polanco's play at the position when he was called up was damaged by rust. Nonsense. His shortstop play was poor because he lacks the tools to be even an average major league shortstop.

Polanco has, according to Baseball Reference, played more than 3,348 professional innings at shortstop, more than 2,145 innings at second base. He was essentially a full time shortstop in 2014 and 2015 -- and he wasn't any better a shortstop at the end of 2015 than he was at the beginning of 2014. Two or three more months at shortstop wasn't going to change that.

I doubt that Molitor is delusional enough to believe otherwise.

Earl Weaver was famously the sole believer in 1982 that Cal Ripken Jr. was a shortstop. But Ripken -- who had played third base in the high minors and for a half season in Baltimore -- took to the position immediately. He never resembled a pinball bumper out there as Polanco has.

From the Handbook: Molitor's managing

The Bill James Handbook 2017 arrived at my residence this weekend, and I could probably mine the numbers for posts all winter.

Today, let's examine what it shows about Paul Molitor's tactics in the season past.

Molitor in 2015, his rookie season as skipper, did not lead the league in anything. This year, he

• used more lineups than anybody else in the AL
• made more pitching changes than anybody else in the AL
• and, of course, lost more games than anybody else.

Compared to 2015, he

• pinch-hit slightly less often
• called for more bunts, steals and runners-in-motion
• issued fewer intentional walks and was less successful with the strategy

That last segment is ... a bit odd. Team generally pinch-hit more often when behind, and lordie, the 2016 Twins were behind a lot. Teams generally break out the one-run strategies when ahead or at least tied late; again, that was not the rule for the 2016 Twins. Even the IBB -- the intentional walks is a tactic best used by the trailing team.

All this suggests that Molitor spent the season trying to "make something happen." He didn't pinch-hit as often because he wasn't starting defensive specialists; he was starting weaker fielders in an effort to push the offense. Eduard Nunez and Jorge Polanco at short. Juan Centeno at catcher. Miguel Sano as a right fielder. Even Danny Santana -- he hasn't hit for Molitor, but Molitor plays him as if he will.

Juggle the lineup. Change the pitcher. Put on the hit-and-run. Molitor was the managerial equivalent of the famous cartoon of two buzzards, one saying to the other: "Patience, my ass. I say let's go kill something." Molitor may have been losing, but he wasn't passive tactically. Indeed, he may have been trying too hard.

The Sunday Funnies

Welcome back to the Sunday Funnies, this blog's weekly offseason recounting of funny, or at least slightly amusing, stories and quotes. As always, I make no guarantee of the literal accuracy of these tales. I also now will not guarantee that these are fresh; I've been doing the Funnies since, I believe, the offseason of 2012-13. Some unintended repetition is likely to creep in.

But I know this one is new, because I heard it this season:

Paul Molitor, now the Twins manager, was on the Twins coaching staff in 2014, Ron Gardenhire's last as manager. Joe Vavra, the first base coach that season, had surgery in midyear and Molitor wound up spending about half the season handling the first base coaching chores during games.

So Molitor is standing in the coaches box as Cleveland Indians first baseman Carlos Santana is tossing the warm-up grounders to his infield teammates, and Santana is chatting with Molitor, unaware that the first base coach was elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

"Did you play?" Santana inquired.

"A little bit," Molitor deadpanned.

My guess is that the umpire overheard the exchange and leaked like a faucet. For the rest of the season, first basemen jokingly asked one of baseball's all-time greats: Did you play?

From the Handbook: Molitor tactically, Part II

Part II of these managerial posts compared Paul Molitor to his predecessor. What about compared to the rest of the league?

Molitor was neither first nor last (with one exception) in any of the categories tracked by Baseball Info Systems. He wasn't often in the precise middle either.

He used 75 pinch hitters, for example; this is near the bottom of the American League in rankings, but almost twice as many as Kansas City's Ned Yost deployed. He allowed a starter to throw more than 110 pitches seven times; only Buck Showalter of Baltimore had fewer, but only three AL skippers topped 20. He used 124 different lineups; the league average was 128. (Yost used just 83, a remarkable figure for the 162-game season.)

I wrote the other day in some detail about Molitor's use of relievers on consecutive days; while he did that far more often than his predecessor, his 123 RCD was fourth in the AL and therefore not out of of step from his colleages. (The leader was Mike Scoscia of the Angels with 145; he had six relief pitchers he used on consecutive days at least 15 times each.)

Molitor's platoon advantage stat -- 59 percent -- was below average, but not close to the bottom. That was Brad Ausmus of Detroit at .47 percent; the Tigers had a very right-handed lineup. Five American League managers had lower platoon advantages than Molitor. Still, considering how often Molitor had at least two switch-hitters in his lineup, 59 percent is lower than I expected to see.

The one category in which Molitor was the trailer: he had the fewest "slow hooks" in the American League, with 27. My sense of the slow hook stat is that managers who rack those up have at least one starter they trust more than their bullpen who is nevertheless having a difficult year. Robin Ventura of the White Sox had the most slow hooks (66) in the AL; he had Jeff Samardzija. Ausmus was second (59); he had Justin Verlander pitching to a 6.62 ERA into July. Molitor trusted his bullpen more than those managers did and didn't insist on getting more innings out of, say, Phil Hughes.

From the Handbook: Molitor tactically, Part I

2015 was something of a novelty for Twins fans: They got to see a new manager after 13 seasons of Ron Gardenhire calling the shots. And before Gardy, there was 14-plus seasons of Tom Kelly.

What, specifically, did Paul Molitor do differently in terms of moves than Gardenhire?

Here's a sizable difference: Consecutive days of use by relief pitchers. Gardenhire at one point (2007-2010) averaged more than 100 RCD a year. But his final four seasons, he was down to 82, 82, 78 and 82. Molitor shot that up to 123 last year, roughly a 50 percent increase, and notably more than Gardenhire's high of 115.

Five pitchers had at least 13 consecutive days usage for the Twins last year; Blaine Boyer led with 20.Two others had nine. Only three Twins relievers had 13 RCD in 2014, none with more than 17.

I think this is worth bookmarking. Ryan Pressly had nine RCD in his 27 appearances for Molitor, then he got hurt. Boyer spent time on the disabled list. Aaron Thompson had 13 RCD, lost effectiveness and was sent down, never to return. Pitchers get hurt, and some of these guys were and are marginal major leaguers anyway, so I'm reluctant to declare a bright line of causality. but this is worth monitoring. Molitor was aggressive about using relievers on consecutive days. It's possible that is counterproductive.

To cherry-pick some other possibly interesting data points: Gardenhire used an average of 125 lineups a year, with a high of 135 in 2005 and low of 97 in 2006. Molitor's 124 is right around Gardenhire's average.

Gardenhire's teams averaged 135 steal attempts and 51 sac bunt attempts; Molitor in 2015, 108 and 44. (Gardenhire's two lowest bunting years were his final two seasons). Molitor also stole less often in 2015 than Gardy did in 2014 and bunted more frequently. 

Gardenhire's hitters over his career had the platoon advantage 62 percent of the time. Molitor's hitters this year, 59 percent of the time. I believed, and declared often, that Molitor was more attuned to the platoon advantage than Gardenhire was, but this suggests otherwise. (I suspect the difference is that Gardenhire had a number of left-handed hitting regulars over the years that he simply refused to platoon despite the numbers, such as Jacque Jones and Jason Kubel; they faced more righties than lefties simply because there are more righties than lefties. Molitor's regulars tended to be right handed.)

Molitor put runners in motion 132 times, the closest of any manager to the AL average of 136. Gardenhire averaged 128 (but in his first two years, just 44 and 37; in 2012 he was up to 207). 

Molitor's cell phone restrictions

Paul Molitor has instituted a clubhouse ban on the use of smartphones and tablets starting a half-hour before gametime. While this may seem commonsensical to those of us of Molitor's age. it's drawing a rather different reaction from some younger observers:

Paul LoLitor. http://t.co/BQGwqs8CMi
— Craig Calcaterra (@craigcalcaterra) February 28, 2015

This is going to go well or go badly: MIN's Paul Molitor established rules on cell phone use, writes Mike Berardino. http://t.co/V2pJtBZAvX
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 28, 2015

Molitor's rule echoes something I saw in the immediate wake of the Kevin Garnett trade, before the prodigal forward reported to the Timberwolves. Supposedly one of the veterans was warning the younger players: If KG sees you on a smartphone in the locker room, he'll flush it down the toilet.

There are other workplaces that limit Internet access to what is necessary for the job. I would think that a player with a problem with being cut off from social media immediately before or during the game is also a player with an attention problem.

That said, there has been many a manager who set out at the start of his tenure to establish stricter rules who ran aground on player resistance to those rules. I don't expect Molitor to be one such, but it's hardly impossible. These players, after all, are from a generation much more Internet attuned.

The Molitor presser

Paul Molitor at Tuesday's press conference.

Parsing the statements made in a baseball-hiring press conference is a fool's game. So I'm a fool.

Some thoughts after watching the Paul Molitor press conference Tuesday morning:

* In recounting Molitor's bio -- which probably wasn't necessary -- Terry Ryan said something about the impressive or great managers Molitor had played for. This amused me, because in my view, Molitor's managerial list was among the weakest in the field of candidates.

Ryan cited four names in particular: George Bamberger, Harvey Kuenn, Cito Gaston and Tom Kelly. 

Kuenn and Gaston are an interesting pair to bring up, because they are oddly similar -- they each were put in charge of a talented but underachieving club that was at odds with the previous skipper, and each won, initially, by maximizing the playing time for the regulars, marginalizing the bench and basically making as few moves as possible. Kuenn got the Brewers to their one World Series tht way, and Gaston won it all in 1992 and 1993, the latter with Molitor.

That is, emphatically, not the situation Molitor is inheriting.

Bamberger is a more interesting figure. He inherited a chronic loser and immediately won 90-plus games the first two years, in part by putting Molitor in the lineup right out of A ball. Bamberger also stuck Gorman Thomas, who had been kicking around for years, in center field and lived with the strikeouts, something previous managers had been unwilling to do.

There are potential parallels to the Twins there. Molitor said he's not waiting on the prospect train, that he wants to win now; but the winning might be easier if they hurry the prospect train to the station.

* Pat Reusse, who has been railing for some time about the Twins taking too many pitches, gave Molitor a leading question about how he, Molitor, liked to swing at first pitches. Molitor gave a much more nuanced answer about the evils of predictability. I have no argument with Mollie's response, but I found myself wishing he'd say: I'd a fool to expect every hitter to hit the way I did. 

This, after all, is the crux of the argument against hiring great players as managers: That they expect lesser players to perform the way they did. Eduardo Escobar isn't Paul Molitor, and Kurt Suzuki isn't either. It's not a reasonable standard.

Anyway, the Twins were seventh in the majors in runs scored. The hitters, in short, weren't the problem. The defense and the pitching were. And, to be sure, it's possible that moves to improve the defense will hurt the offense.

* Terry Ryan was quite explicit: He did talk to Joe Maddon, and the Cubs were simply a more attractive offer. 

* Less explicit, but strongly implied: Ryan has had more payroll space to work with than he has used. He hasn't used it all because he hasn't seen anything worth using it on.

Which is fine with me. Spending money just because you have it is silly.

Beginning the Molitor Era

Paul Molitor will be introduced as Twins
manager Tuesday morning.

The Twins made it official Monday: Paul Molitor will be the new manager.

I was pulling for Doug Mientkiewicz, but the Molitor selection neither surprises nor dismays me. Terry Ryan knows more about the candidates than I do, and he has skin in this game. I don't.

There is one sizable drawback to Molitor: He has never managed on any level. That does not seem to be as significant a deterrent to getting the job as it once was. Indeed, as I observed about a month ago here, half the teams in the division series were skippered by men on their first managerial job.

Molitor does have some obvious advantages. First, he is quite familiar with several of the key players coming up the ladder from his years as a roving instructor. Second, he is open to analytics, probably more so than was Ron Gardenhire. Third, Molitor is a known figure to the major league players after spending 2014 on the coaching staff, several of whom have gushed about Molitor's knowledge.

Which ties into the one attribute any manager absolutely must have: He has the respect of the players. He's a Hall of Famer, to start with, and while the managerial track record of truly great players isn't all that striking, it is a credential that figures to command at least the initial respect of everybody.

The general rap on great players as managers is that they can't identify with the struggles of lesser athletes, and by definition most players are lesser athletes than Paul Molitor was. Given the high marks he's gotten in the past for his work with minor leaguers, I don't think that's going to be an issue for him.

Molitor was widely viewed during his playing days as a manager-in-waiting. For whatever reasons -- and I don't think it was just one reason -- it hasn't happened until now. Molitor is 58, and that's fairly old for a first-time manager. That is a minor checkmark against him, and part of why I was interested in Mientkiewicz. The odds are that Molly won't have a decade-plus run in the job as Gardenhire and Tom Kelly did. That doesn't mean he can't be a success.

Subtract one candidate, assess

Chip Hale has 2,728 fewer managerial victories
than the man to his left in this photo, Tony LaRussa.

One candidate for the Twins managerial job was scratched Monday. Chip Hale took the job in Arizona.

Which leaves the Twins with six known candidates and perhaps more to come.

We know of inside candidates Gene Glynn, Doug Mienkiewicz and Paul Molitor, and of outside candidates Sandy Alomar Jr,, Torey Lovullo and Joe McEwing. There's a very real chance that the search is now on hold while one or more candidates now coaching teams in the playoffs -- specifically John Russell of Baltimore and perhaps Jose Oquendo of St. Louis -- finishes the season.

It would be unfair to pin a specific label on any of the six -- unfair but tempting. They are all, without doubt, unique blends of personality and experience. Yet we can slide each into an individual slot:

• Glynn is the proven instructor and minor league veteran.
• Mientkiewicz is the young gun, just five years removed from his own playing days.
• Molitor is the Hall of Famer, with all the respect that carries.
• Alomar Jr. is the Spanish speaker.
• Lovullo is the guy from the sabermetric organization.
• McEwing is Mientkiewicz from the outside.

If Russell -- who was the first outsider to be specifically tied to the search in media reports -- is indeed a candidate, his pigeonhole would be "the recycled manager."

Again, these guys all are more complex than those brief sentences.

My (emphatically outside) view on this group:

• I prefer Mientkiewicz over the field.
• Of the outside candidates, including Russell, I prefer Alomar Jr. because of the language component. The Twins have so many Latin players of importance coming up, but their track record with such talent under Ron Gardenhire was spotty.
• I still expect Molitor to get the job, in part because it's easier to imagine Mientkiewicz on Molitor's staff than vice versa.

About the coaching staff

Terry Steinbach:
Manager, coach or
moving to Arizona?

When the Twins dismissed Ron Gardenhire as manager on Monday, they also put the seven coaches "in limbo." They have contracts through this calendar year, but no assurance that they will be on the new skipper's coaching staff.  Terry Ryan said Monday that he will not block any of them from moving on to another interested team in the meantime.

It should be said that managers no longer have the final say over their coaches, as they once did. That is one of many battles front offices have fought and won over the dugout bosses. Managers do have some say over coaches -- probably most strongly over pitching coaches -- but the general managers have the final say. It's no longer enough to be the manager's drinking buddy.

It wasn't Ron Gardenhire's idea to bounce Jerry White and Rick Stelmaszek for Tom Brunansky and Bobby Cuellar two years ago, after all.

I rather expect some of the seven coaches to remain on the Twins staff. Indeed, were I involved in the hiring process, I would need a really strong reason to go with a candidate who intended to replace Brunansky or Paul Molitor.

Let's go down the list and take a guess at their fates:

Rick Anderson, pitching coach: Can't see that he's returning. Ryan will almost certainly let his new manager have his pitching coach of choice. And it may well be that even if Anderson is the pitching coach of choice (if, say, Molitor or Steinbach gets the job), that Ryan will strongly suggest that a different coach be chosen.

Tom Brunansky, hitting coach: I want him to stay. The improvement of the Twins hitters from 2013 to 2014 was impressive. I can't prove that Bruno was responsible for that improvement, but the improvement was there.

Bobby Cuellar, bullpen coach: Might be considered for the pitching coach job. Might be kept as bullpen coach, Might be cut loose. My guess is he stays in the bullpen job. Sole Spanish speaker on the current staff, so naturally he was as far from the Latin contingent as possible.

Paul Molitor, baserunning/defensive positioning/first base: Conventional wisdom has him as the front runner for the managerial job. The interesting puzzle is: What if somebody else gets the top job? Would the Hall of Famer be willing to serve on a Doug Mientkiewicz staff? I hope so.

Terry Steinbach, bench coach: Also seen as a managerial candidate. The New Ulm native has also been connected to the Arizona Diamondbacks, where Tony LaRussa has installed Steiny's old Oakland battery mate, Dave Stewart, as a (relatively weak) general manager and is now looking for a new manager. Manager or coach, I expect Ryan to want to keep Steinbach; if the D'backs make a rapid offer, that might not be an option.

Scott Ullger: Jack of all
coaching trades,
master of none.

Scott Ullger, outfield/first base/third base: Can't see that he's returning. Ullger has been around since the Tom Kelly regime and has been given a variety of assignments over the years: Hitting coach, first base, third base, dugout, fill-in manager, outfield defense. He didn't do any of them so well that he kept the responsibility for long. Ullger has long struck me as the most dispensable member of the staff.

Joe Vavra, infield/third base: Longtime hitting coach, had hip replacement surgery during the season and spent most of the second half in the dugout. My guess is that he'll be offered the minor league hitting coordinator job he held before Brunansky was elevated to the major league job. (The Twins early in September dismissed Bill Stoneman, who had held the minor league coordinator post for eight years.)

Bottom line: Even if one of the current coaches is chosen Gardenhire's successor, I expect substantial turnover on the staff this winter. The relative stability that accompanied Gardenhire's assent 13 years ago is not going to be repeated.

Molitor, Ramirez and minor surgeries

Paul Molitor at his Hall of Fame
induction in 2004.

Paul Molitor, the Twins announced Tuesday, will be their seventh coach, with a set of responsibilities described as bunting, baserunning, defensive positioning and in-game advice.

Not exactly earth-shaking news, but there's certainly room for reaction:

• Nothing against Molitor, who clearly knows those areas of the game as thoroughly as anybody, but this does still leave the Minnesota coaching staff very white and Anglo. The wave of position player talent coming is heavily Latin and dark-skinned. I still think it would be better if the coaching staff were more diverse.
• Both Molitor and Terry Ryan said bringing Molitor on board was initiated by Ron Gardenhire. When Ryan reshuffled the coaching staff a year ago, the general manager said there was "no fit" for Molitor, who was — and remains — popularly seen as the likely successor to Gardenhire's job should Ryan opt to change managers. Presumably the difference in "fit" some 12 months later is connected to the two-year extension the manager received after the season ended. Molitor's presence is not an immediate threat to Gardenhire's employment.
• I don't know what kind of label we'll attach to Molitor's duties. For four of the other coaches, the label refers to where they are during games (first-base coach, third-base coach, bench coach, bullpen coach); for the other two, the label encompasses a broad responsibility (pitching coach, hitting coach). Molitor is to be in the dugout, with Scott Ullger and Joe Vavra still on the bases. I'll go with baserunning coach for now.

---

Outfielder Wilkin Ramirez was activated from the 60-day disabled list and then outrighted to Triple-A Rochester. He'll presumably exercise his right to declare free agency and see if anybody else wants him.

The Twins 40-man roster remains officially at 36, with Sam Deduno remaining on the 60-day DL as an unofficial 37th. Plenty of pruning awaits.

---

Closer Glen Perkins and outfielder Darin Mastroianni each had surgeries since season's end.

Perkins' knee issue was not public knowledge last season, and he certainly had a fine season despite it. Mastroianni's season, on the other hand, was essentially ruined by his ankle problem.

Both men are supposed to be good to go for spring training. Inasmuch as Perkins was quite effective with a troublesome meniscus, I've no concerns about him. Mastroianni, on the other hand, needs his speed. He was not the baserunner last September that he was in 2012.

New trends in the dugout

Mike Redmond served a
minor-league apprenticeship
before landing a big-league
managerial job.

When Mike Redmond landed the managerial job in Miami last month, he talked about the career advice he'd gotten from Jim Leyland, his first big-league skipper and now manager of the Tigers: Take a minor league job and learn the nuances of managing in the bushes. Redmond did so: Two seasons in the Toronto system managing in Class A.

Even Ryne Sandberg and Mike Schmidt, Hall of Fame players who harbor(ed) managerial ambitions, had to go to the minors first. Schmidt quit after a few weeks (he could make more money on the autograph circuit and didn't want to manage enough to put up with the minor league life); Sandberg is in the bigs as a coach now and reputedly the manager-in-waiting in Philadelphia.

There are a lot more minor league managers than major league managers, of course, and only a few get to ride the buses to one of the big-time jobs, as Redmond did. The odds are agin 'em.

And the odds are getting worse. Major league teams are increasingly hiring managers who haven't managed, or even coached, on any professional level.

Walt Weiss will be
the sixth manager
in Rockies history.

The most recent such move came late Wednesday, when the Colorado Rockies selected Walt Weiss, a former major league shortstop who had been coaching in high school.

Others of this ilk: Mike Matheny, who led the Cardinals to the seventh game of the NLCS in his first season managing anywhere; and Robin Ventura, who kept the White Sox in the playoff hunt.

Inexperienced and successful: Not a promising development for the dues-paying minor leaguers.

What's more, the Rockies had as one of their leading alternatives to Weiss the still-active Jason Giambi, and the White Sox were seriously considering making Paul Konerko player-manager before tabbing Ventura.

These selection were unusual. Most managers take the Redmond route of a minor league apprenticeship; others are at least coaches in the majors for a while, learning the job from a more experienced manager (Ozzie Guillen from Jack McKeon, for example).

What Weiss, Matheny and Ventura have had in lieu of experience coping with the issues of running a minor league team: Impressive major league playing resumes. Weiss was AL Rookie of the Year in 1988; Matheny caught in the majors for 13 years; Ventura was probably the greatest third baseman in White Sox history.

The single most important thing a manager has is the respect of his players. The pedigree of World Series rings and All-Star games is a good start. (The respect can dissolve quickly, however.)

All this has a certain amount of at least theoretical interest to Twins fans. Paul Molitor has never managed in the minor leagues and was last a full-time coach in 2001 under Tom Kelly. But he may be the manager-in-waiting. Matheny,Ventura and Weiss indicate that Molitor wouldn't be a unique selection.