Saturday, May 14, 2011

Doing the math

Another game, another failure
for the Twins.
The rule of thumb here is to ignore the standings until Memorial Day. This is a time to break that rule.

The Twins lost Friday night (six straight losses), giving them a record of 12-14, .333 — the worst record in the majors. The Cleveland Indians (still in first place) won, making them 24-13 — the best record in the American League.

Last year the Twins won 94 games. Let's say it will take that many to win the division title. In that case, the Twins would have to go 82-44 the rest of the way; the Indians would have to go 70-55.

Say it will take just 90 wins to take the division. Then the Twins need a 78-48 mark for the rest of the season, while the Tribe would get there with a 66-59 record.

Finally, say it takes 86 wins, which is roughly where Rob Neyer projected the division winner to be. The Twins would get there if they go 74-52, while the Indians would reach that mark by going just 62-63.

It doesn't have to be the Indians. I've been clinging for weeks to the comforting notion that the likely threats to the Twins domination of the division, Chicago and Detroit, weren't doing much better than Minnesota.  But the Tigers have won six straight while the Twins have lost their six, and they are now 7.5 games up on the Twins.

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