It wasn't that long ago that Brian Dozier was arugably the best second baseman in the game. Coming out of the 2017 season he had averaged more than 30 homers a year over a four-year stretch, he won a Gold Glove ... and he was going into the walk year of his contract, and the Twins were showing little interest in locking him up with an extension.
Today the Twins appear to have been correct in that assessment. Dozier still has some pop, but now it's 20 homers a year, not 30, and with a sharply lower batting average -- not that batting average was ever really his strong suit.
The Twins traded him during the 2018 season to the Dodgers, who expected him to plug second base; they soon shifted to a platoon role for him and let him go after the season. The Nationals signed him, and he opened 2019 as their second baseman, but by the stretch run he was a spare part there as well.
He finally signed a 2020 contract over the weekend, after exhibition games had already begun -- a minor league deal with the Padres. San Diego doesn't have an established second baseman, and he may beat out Jurickson Profar for the job there, but one has to figure he hits camp in Arizona behind Profar.
At least he's got two World Series, and one title, out of his post-Twins wanderings.
Showing posts with label Brian Dozier. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brian Dozier. Show all posts
Monday, February 24, 2020
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Washington and the ex-Twins factor
The Washington Nationals made short work of the NLCS, sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals so emphatically -- the Cardinals never had a lead in any game -- that they didn't have to pull their starters-as-relievers bullpen gimmick.
And so Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki and Fernando Rodney, three ex-Twins of varying tenure, are going to the World Series. As is Anibal Sanchez, who was in spring training with the Twins as a non-roster invitee in 2018 and was released when the Twins signed Lance Lynn. Since then Sanchez has pitched more than 300 innings with an ERA of 3.39. (He pitched more innings this year as the Nationals' fourth starter than Jake Odorizzi worked for the Twins.)
We can call Sanchez an ex-Twin, or decide that a few weeks in spring training doesn't count -- but he certainly qualifies as one who got away.
As for the others:
Dozier, now 32, had the lion's share of playing time at second base for the Nats and bopped 20 homers, but Howie Kendrick has pretty much taken over the position in the postseason. He was a bench piece for the Dodgers in last year's World Series also.
Suzuki, now 36, essentially splits the catching chores with former Indians backstop Yan Gomes. Gomes is the better receiver, Suzuki the better bat. I frankly thought Suzuki was pretty much done when his Twins tenure ended, but playing a little less than half-time has worked well for him the pst three seasons. Uniquely among the Nats' ex-Twins, he's signed through next season.
Rodney, now 42, is one of the bullpen pieces the Nationals seek diligently to avoid using in key moments. The Nats picked him up after the A's released him; he pitched in 38 games for Washington with an ERA of 4..05, which is considerably better than the 9.42 he had with Oakland.
Their roles are smaller than they were with the Twins, and their time remaining in the majors is dwindling. But if this is it for Dozier and Rodney, they're going out on a big platform.
And so Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki and Fernando Rodney, three ex-Twins of varying tenure, are going to the World Series. As is Anibal Sanchez, who was in spring training with the Twins as a non-roster invitee in 2018 and was released when the Twins signed Lance Lynn. Since then Sanchez has pitched more than 300 innings with an ERA of 3.39. (He pitched more innings this year as the Nationals' fourth starter than Jake Odorizzi worked for the Twins.)
We can call Sanchez an ex-Twin, or decide that a few weeks in spring training doesn't count -- but he certainly qualifies as one who got away.
As for the others:
Dozier, now 32, had the lion's share of playing time at second base for the Nats and bopped 20 homers, but Howie Kendrick has pretty much taken over the position in the postseason. He was a bench piece for the Dodgers in last year's World Series also.
Suzuki, now 36, essentially splits the catching chores with former Indians backstop Yan Gomes. Gomes is the better receiver, Suzuki the better bat. I frankly thought Suzuki was pretty much done when his Twins tenure ended, but playing a little less than half-time has worked well for him the pst three seasons. Uniquely among the Nats' ex-Twins, he's signed through next season.
Rodney, now 42, is one of the bullpen pieces the Nationals seek diligently to avoid using in key moments. The Nats picked him up after the A's released him; he pitched in 38 games for Washington with an ERA of 4..05, which is considerably better than the 9.42 he had with Oakland.
Their roles are smaller than they were with the Twins, and their time remaining in the majors is dwindling. But if this is it for Dozier and Rodney, they're going out on a big platform.
Saturday, January 12, 2019
#OldFriends
Aaron Slegers, whose designation for assignment drew this mild dissent, was claimed on waivers Friday by the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Good for him. I hope he stays healthy, gets the chance to pitch for the Buccos that the Twins were clearly reluctant to grant him, and succeeds.
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Brian Dozier has reportedly reached a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals.
The Nats had an opening at second base that they didn't want to plug with long-term signing, as they have a promising prospect in Carter Kieboom and expect to turn the position over to him by 2020.
The Nats's signing of Dozier apparently triggered a series of other signings of free agent second basemen, with Jed Lowrie going to the Mets and D.J. LeMehieu to the Yankees. I think the Nats were seen as the most desirable landing place, and once that got filled, it was get what you can.
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The Twins have not yet completed the signing of reliever Blake Parker. If and when that reported deal becomes official, somebody has to come off the roster.
Good for him. I hope he stays healthy, gets the chance to pitch for the Buccos that the Twins were clearly reluctant to grant him, and succeeds.
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Brian Dozier has reportedly reached a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals.
The Nats had an opening at second base that they didn't want to plug with long-term signing, as they have a promising prospect in Carter Kieboom and expect to turn the position over to him by 2020.
The Nats's signing of Dozier apparently triggered a series of other signings of free agent second basemen, with Jed Lowrie going to the Mets and D.J. LeMehieu to the Yankees. I think the Nats were seen as the most desirable landing place, and once that got filled, it was get what you can.
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The Twins have not yet completed the signing of reliever Blake Parker. If and when that reported deal becomes official, somebody has to come off the roster.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
#OldFriends (Infielders)
The Twins traded Eduardo Nunez to the Giants soon after he made the All-Star team in 2016. He was traded in midseason by the Giants to the Red Sox last year and is likely to be a free agent after the World Series. There is a team option, but I suspect the Red Sox will figure they can find a bench alternative they like more.
It's been a weird year for Nunez. He hasn't played all that well. His OPS+, a rough measurement of how productive his season was at the plate, was a career low, and his fielding has always been deemed subpar. But he still got more than 500 plate appearances for a 108-win team, so he couldn't have been holding the Red Sox back that much.
Alex Cora didn't fit the right-handed Nunez into the starting lineup against the left-handed Clayton Kershaw. He played the left-handed hitting Rafael Devers at third and right-handed Ian Kinsler at second. Kershaw was pulled in the fifth, and the Dodgers didn't use a lefty again until the seventh, when Alex Wood entered to face Devers with two on.
Except, as you probably know, Nunez pinch-hit and clubbed a three-run homer to break the game open.
Had Nunez started at third, it might have been Devers pinch-hitting for him in the seventh, but against a righty. Or, possibly, Devers might have replaced Nunez sooner, and the pinch-hit matchup might have disappeared.
Not a bad way to make his World Series debut.
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Brian Dozier, seldom seen in the postseason for the Dodgers, was not only in the starting lineup for L.A. in Game One, he was the leadoff man. He drew a walk, he scored a run and he was unable to turn a critical double play pivot in the fifth inning.
The Dodgers obviously sought to load their lineup with righties against Chris Sale. They could have had someone like Chris Taylor, who led off for them throughout last year's postseason run, in the leadoff spot. I wonder if the fact that Dozier has three career homers off Sale entered into the decision to put him in the maximum at-bat spot.
I would think that the Dodgers analytics department is sharp enough to know that batter-pitcher matchup numbers aren't a reliable indicator. Dozier isn't the same hitter in October 2018 that he was when he hit those homers. And Sale probably isn't the same pticher right now, either.
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Finally, a former Twins infielder who isn't involved in this year's Fall Classic. Eduardo Escobar reupped Monday with the Arizona Diamondbacks -- three years, $21 million.
That feels a bit light to me, but Escobar probably didn't want to get frozen out in the marketplace, as happened to a number of veteran free agents last winter.
The MLB.com story on the signing says the D'backs don't have a specific position for Escobar right now, but his versatility gives them a variety of alternatives as they remake their roster.
Here's the thing: He's not quite as versatile as they apparently think. Age -- he turns 30 this winter -- has made him less playable at shortstop. His outfield experiences were rough enough that the Twins quit trying that pretty quickly. And supposedly he's not comfortable playing second base, although that might be his second-best fit (behind third base).
I had hoped to see Escobar return to the Twins, but he never actually reached the free agent market.
It's been a weird year for Nunez. He hasn't played all that well. His OPS+, a rough measurement of how productive his season was at the plate, was a career low, and his fielding has always been deemed subpar. But he still got more than 500 plate appearances for a 108-win team, so he couldn't have been holding the Red Sox back that much.
Alex Cora didn't fit the right-handed Nunez into the starting lineup against the left-handed Clayton Kershaw. He played the left-handed hitting Rafael Devers at third and right-handed Ian Kinsler at second. Kershaw was pulled in the fifth, and the Dodgers didn't use a lefty again until the seventh, when Alex Wood entered to face Devers with two on.
Except, as you probably know, Nunez pinch-hit and clubbed a three-run homer to break the game open.
Had Nunez started at third, it might have been Devers pinch-hitting for him in the seventh, but against a righty. Or, possibly, Devers might have replaced Nunez sooner, and the pinch-hit matchup might have disappeared.
Not a bad way to make his World Series debut.
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Brian Dozier, seldom seen in the postseason for the Dodgers, was not only in the starting lineup for L.A. in Game One, he was the leadoff man. He drew a walk, he scored a run and he was unable to turn a critical double play pivot in the fifth inning.
The Dodgers obviously sought to load their lineup with righties against Chris Sale. They could have had someone like Chris Taylor, who led off for them throughout last year's postseason run, in the leadoff spot. I wonder if the fact that Dozier has three career homers off Sale entered into the decision to put him in the maximum at-bat spot.
I would think that the Dodgers analytics department is sharp enough to know that batter-pitcher matchup numbers aren't a reliable indicator. Dozier isn't the same hitter in October 2018 that he was when he hit those homers. And Sale probably isn't the same pticher right now, either.
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Finally, a former Twins infielder who isn't involved in this year's Fall Classic. Eduardo Escobar reupped Monday with the Arizona Diamondbacks -- three years, $21 million.
That feels a bit light to me, but Escobar probably didn't want to get frozen out in the marketplace, as happened to a number of veteran free agents last winter.
The MLB.com story on the signing says the D'backs don't have a specific position for Escobar right now, but his versatility gives them a variety of alternatives as they remake their roster.
Here's the thing: He's not quite as versatile as they apparently think. Age -- he turns 30 this winter -- has made him less playable at shortstop. His outfield experiences were rough enough that the Twins quit trying that pretty quickly. And supposedly he's not comfortable playing second base, although that might be his second-best fit (behind third base).
I had hoped to see Escobar return to the Twins, but he never actually reached the free agent market.
Monday, September 17, 2018
Ex-Twins watch: Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier started his tenure with the Los Angeles Dodgers with a bang, but he fell into a deep slump and has apparently fallen into a platoon role.
Chase Utley was L.A.'s second baseman for their Sunday Night game with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers got shut out, and Dozier never got off the bench.
Apparently he's been dealing with a sore knee all season, and he told the Orange County Register this weekend that he's developed "bad habits in (my) swing" trying to compensate for the injury.
He wasn't having a good season with Minnesota before the trade, and his averages have deteriorated since the trade.
Dozier, as we all know, is headed to free agency after the season. He's in his 30s, he's having by far his worst season since the shift to second base, and the marketplace last winter was rather cruel to 30-something sluggers.
But at least he has a structural reason for his decline. His argument might be: Once we get the knee fixed, I can snap back into my accustomed production.
How willing today's analytically inclined front offices will be to buy into that is questionable.
Chase Utley was L.A.'s second baseman for their Sunday Night game with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Dodgers got shut out, and Dozier never got off the bench.
Apparently he's been dealing with a sore knee all season, and he told the Orange County Register this weekend that he's developed "bad habits in (my) swing" trying to compensate for the injury.
He wasn't having a good season with Minnesota before the trade, and his averages have deteriorated since the trade.
Dozier, as we all know, is headed to free agency after the season. He's in his 30s, he's having by far his worst season since the shift to second base, and the marketplace last winter was rather cruel to 30-something sluggers.
But at least he has a structural reason for his decline. His argument might be: Once we get the knee fixed, I can snap back into my accustomed production.
How willing today's analytically inclined front offices will be to buy into that is questionable.
Thursday, August 2, 2018
Allow me to introduce myself ...
A bunch of the guys the Twins cast off leading up to the trade deadline have started showing up in box scores. How they made their first impressions:
Brian Dozier homered, doubled and singled Wednesday in his Dodger debut. Three-for-4 with seven total bases is a pretty good way to boot up.
Zach Duke didn't allow a homer in 37.1 innings with the Twins. He made his first appearance with Seattle on Tuesday and gave up a homer to Josh Reddick. A LOOGY throwing a gopher ball to a left-handed hitter ... ouch.
Lance Lynn was almost unrecognizable in his Yankees debut; the Yankees don't allow beards, and Lynn has had one throughout his major league career. New look, good results: 4.1 scoreless innings of relief on Thursday against Baltimore. Sonny Gray had already put the Yankees well behind, and Lynn did allow an inherited runner to score, but the overall impression was strong enough that there is speculation in Yankeeland that Lynn will move into the starting rotation.
Ryan Pressly, like Duke, gave up a homer in his first outing with his new team -- in this case, Houston. I had the glimmer of a notion that the Astros might try him as closer, but the controversial trade for Roberto Osuna, who faces domestic violence charges in Toronto, probably closes that door.
Eduardo Escobar is doing Eduardo Escobar stuff for the Diamondbacks. He doubled (of course) in his debut against the Padres and had two hits in each of his first two games with Arizona. It sounds, by the way, like Jake Lamb, nominally Arizona's regular third baseman, might be done for the season with the injury that helped prompt the Snakes to deal for Escobar.
Brian Dozier homered, doubled and singled Wednesday in his Dodger debut. Three-for-4 with seven total bases is a pretty good way to boot up.
Zach Duke didn't allow a homer in 37.1 innings with the Twins. He made his first appearance with Seattle on Tuesday and gave up a homer to Josh Reddick. A LOOGY throwing a gopher ball to a left-handed hitter ... ouch.
Lance Lynn was almost unrecognizable in his Yankees debut; the Yankees don't allow beards, and Lynn has had one throughout his major league career. New look, good results: 4.1 scoreless innings of relief on Thursday against Baltimore. Sonny Gray had already put the Yankees well behind, and Lynn did allow an inherited runner to score, but the overall impression was strong enough that there is speculation in Yankeeland that Lynn will move into the starting rotation.
Ryan Pressly, like Duke, gave up a homer in his first outing with his new team -- in this case, Houston. I had the glimmer of a notion that the Astros might try him as closer, but the controversial trade for Roberto Osuna, who faces domestic violence charges in Toronto, probably closes that door.
Eduardo Escobar is doing Eduardo Escobar stuff for the Diamondbacks. He doubled (of course) in his debut against the Padres and had two hits in each of his first two games with Arizona. It sounds, by the way, like Jake Lamb, nominally Arizona's regular third baseman, might be done for the season with the injury that helped prompt the Snakes to deal for Escobar.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Bye-bye, Dozier
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| Brian Dozier walks into the Dodgers dugout for the final inning of Tuesday's game. |
Of the five deadline deals swung by the Twins -- trades that stripped veterans Dozier, Zack Duke, Eduardo Escobar, Lance Lynn and Ryan Pressly from the roster -- the best "get" came from the Pressly trade, and that's because Pressly was the only one who isn't a two-month rental.
I'm not impressed by what the Twins got for Dozier, and that's not surprising. Remember: The Twins actively peddled Dozier two offseasons ago without pulling the trigger. If the published reports are accurate, the Dodgers made the best offer, and that was pitching prospect Jose De Leon. Had the Twins done that deal, I would have ripped it.
The Dodgers were apparently intent that winter on trading De Leon for the best available second baseman; they settled on Logan Forsythe, then of Tampa Bay. Forsythe didn't hit as well in Los Angeles as he did with the Rays -- no surprise considering the difference between Tropiciana Field and Dodget Stadium as home environments -- and De Leon has pitched a total of 41 innings, majors and minors, since the trade.
And now Forsythe is a Twin. Presumably he'll play second base the rest of the way in Minnesota and then be allowed to join Dozier in the free agent market.
I would not have done this trade were I making the call. Even if, as I expect, Falvine have no interest in an extension with Dozier -- who is 31 and putting up his worst numbers since his rookie season -- I don't think the return justifies ripping out such a key foundation piece in midseason. If this was the best they could get for Dozier, walk away.
There are two possibilities that would sway my opinion:
- The Twins blew past their allotted payroll with the spring training signings of Lynn and Logan Morrison; it's possible that Falvine were told that if they're going to sell a priority would be getting payroll under budget.
- It's possible that Dozier told the front office that he'd prefer to be traded to a contender if they were going to sell. (Among the advantages for Dozier: having been traded during the season, his pending free agency cannot be encumbered with a qualifying offer.)
The Dodgers today acquired second baseman Brian Dozier from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for infielder Logan Forsythe and minor leaguers Luke Raley and Devin Smeltzer.— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 31, 2018
Forsythe I touched on already. A few months older than Dozier, a higher draft pick, less accomplished. He's a placeholder, included in the deal to keep the Dodgers under the luxury tax and because somebody has to play in the infield in Minnesota and Nick Gordon is flailing at Triple A. Three years from now we'll have pretty much forgotten he ever played with the Twins.
Raley is a left-handed hitting 1B/OF, 23, putting up what appear to be decent numbers in Double A but in what I perceive to be a very good hitting environment. Smeltzer is a left-handed pitcher, 22, putting up what appear to be atrocious numbers in Double A but in what I perceive to be a very good hitting environment. Neither is a particularly well-regarded prospect.
One other point before I get on with my life today: There will be chatter about the Twins mishandling the Dozier "asset." That's nonsense.
I don't know why the rest of MLB didn't properly value Dozier two winters ago, but the Twins got lowballed in trade talks. They kept Dozier; he hit 34 homers, won a Gold Glove and the Twins won a wild-card berth. It was the correct decision.
They were going for it this year and thus didn't attempt to trade him last winter; nobody was surprised by that decision. Even if I don't care for this return, they got more from the Dodgers for two months of Dozier than they were offered by the Dodgers for two years of him in the 2016-2017 offseason.
Saturday, May 5, 2018
Notes, quotes and comment
The lead to an obit in today's Free Press:
Which is good, because Thursday's walk-off loss probably would have killed her.
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No matter how the Fernando Rodney Experience plays out in Minnesota -- and the veteran closer did close out Friday's win in Chicago -- there appears to be one positive from having him around.
In spring training Rodney showed Romero his changeup. And the younger Fernando R. appears to have adopted it pretty well.
Romero has long had the fastball and slider. I don't know that he has mastered the change as well as Rodney has, but a Rodney-caliber change could genuinely make Romero an ace. Well, assuming he has the command and durability to pitch 200-plus innings a season.
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Brian Dozier hit second Friday. Last year he hit leadoff every time he was in the starting lineup. I don't know that dropping him a slot in the batting order is why he broke out of his slump, but it sure worked.
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Albert Pujols got his 3,000th hit Friday. I don't believe he's really helping the Angels much, but I also view him as the greatest first baseman in baseball history. The milestone is just piling on.
Rose Anna Monson passed away peacefully at her home Wednesday, May 2, 2018 surrounded by her children - and after watching her beloved Minnesota Twins win one last time.So she got to see Fernando Romero's debut.
Which is good, because Thursday's walk-off loss probably would have killed her.
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No matter how the Fernando Rodney Experience plays out in Minnesota -- and the veteran closer did close out Friday's win in Chicago -- there appears to be one positive from having him around.
In spring training Rodney showed Romero his changeup. And the younger Fernando R. appears to have adopted it pretty well.
Romero has long had the fastball and slider. I don't know that he has mastered the change as well as Rodney has, but a Rodney-caliber change could genuinely make Romero an ace. Well, assuming he has the command and durability to pitch 200-plus innings a season.
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Brian Dozier hit second Friday. Last year he hit leadoff every time he was in the starting lineup. I don't know that dropping him a slot in the batting order is why he broke out of his slump, but it sure worked.
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Albert Pujols got his 3,000th hit Friday. I don't believe he's really helping the Angels much, but I also view him as the greatest first baseman in baseball history. The milestone is just piling on.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
From the Handbook: 2017 Leaderboards
Another longtime staple of the annual Bill James Handbooks: top ten lists in virtually every statistical category. A double of easy Brian Dozier nuggets:
Dozier was third in the AL in plate appearances (705), but he was "only" eighth in at-bats (617). That's because his 78 walks were ninth most in the league, and most of the regular top-of-the- order guys didn't show on that list..
Sticking with Dozier: his 306 total bases ranked seventh in the league. But three, maybe four, American League middle infielders had more; it depends on what you consider Jose Ramirez, who split 2017 between third base and second base. The others are Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve and Jonathan Schoop. Another shortstop, Elvis Andrus, is ninth. (Andrus? Yep. The once light-hitting shortstop not only hit .297 but spiced it with 44 doubles, four triples and 20 homers.)
Moral of that list: Teams are demanding, and getting, some serious thump in their middle infields. And since most of these guys are hitting at or near the top of the order, they're getting more opportunities than the outfielders and first basemen hitting in the middle.
Dozier was third in the AL in plate appearances (705), but he was "only" eighth in at-bats (617). That's because his 78 walks were ninth most in the league, and most of the regular top-of-the- order guys didn't show on that list..
Sticking with Dozier: his 306 total bases ranked seventh in the league. But three, maybe four, American League middle infielders had more; it depends on what you consider Jose Ramirez, who split 2017 between third base and second base. The others are Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve and Jonathan Schoop. Another shortstop, Elvis Andrus, is ninth. (Andrus? Yep. The once light-hitting shortstop not only hit .297 but spiced it with 44 doubles, four triples and 20 homers.)
Moral of that list: Teams are demanding, and getting, some serious thump in their middle infields. And since most of these guys are hitting at or near the top of the order, they're getting more opportunities than the outfielders and first basemen hitting in the middle.
Thursday, December 21, 2017
On "short" home runs
A reader given to emailing comments to me suggested (regarding Monday's post) that Brian Dozier might lead the league in "short" home runs.
Well, let's look at the data from Baseball Info Systems:
Dozier in 2017 had 22 flyball outs that traveled 330 to 349 feet, no homers of that distance.
Edwin Encarnacion had 20 flyball outs in that range -- and three homers.
Aaron Judge had just 11 outs in that range -- and two homers. Scooter Gennett, 10 and 3. Mookie Betts, 20 and 3. Carlos Santana (who, like Encarnacion, played for Cleveland), 18 and 2.
There are a LOT of players with more flyball outs in that range than Dozier. Whit Merrifield of Kansas City: 31 outs of 330 to 349 feet, no homers.
Obviously, the ballpark has a lot to do with that. Kansas City's yard is unforgiving of fly balls, Yankee Stadium the opposite. Pull a popup down either line in Boston, you got a chance. Something in Cleveland seems condusive to particularly short homers. I don't think Target Field has any particularly soft touches in that regard.
Dozier hit 33 homers in 2017, and 22 of them went at least 390 feet. Five were between 350 and 369, six between 370 and 389. Encarnacion (38 total) had 15 homers shorter than 390.
Mike Moustakas -- big home park -- also had 38 total. Nine of them were between 370 and 389. Only three were shorter than 370, but with about the same number of fly ball outs shorter than 370 than Encarnacion.
And here's an oddity that caught my eye: Gary Sanchez of the Yankees had a total of 37 flyball outs of 330 feet or more, and 33 homers. That's really strong percentage. He has a favorable park, but that's a lot of homers per flyball.
Anyway, if I had to crown somebody as the king of the cheap homer in 2017, it would be Edwin Encarnacion, not Brian Dozier.
Well, let's look at the data from Baseball Info Systems:
Dozier in 2017 had 22 flyball outs that traveled 330 to 349 feet, no homers of that distance.
Edwin Encarnacion had 20 flyball outs in that range -- and three homers.
Aaron Judge had just 11 outs in that range -- and two homers. Scooter Gennett, 10 and 3. Mookie Betts, 20 and 3. Carlos Santana (who, like Encarnacion, played for Cleveland), 18 and 2.
There are a LOT of players with more flyball outs in that range than Dozier. Whit Merrifield of Kansas City: 31 outs of 330 to 349 feet, no homers.
Obviously, the ballpark has a lot to do with that. Kansas City's yard is unforgiving of fly balls, Yankee Stadium the opposite. Pull a popup down either line in Boston, you got a chance. Something in Cleveland seems condusive to particularly short homers. I don't think Target Field has any particularly soft touches in that regard.
Dozier hit 33 homers in 2017, and 22 of them went at least 390 feet. Five were between 350 and 369, six between 370 and 389. Encarnacion (38 total) had 15 homers shorter than 390.
Mike Moustakas -- big home park -- also had 38 total. Nine of them were between 370 and 389. Only three were shorter than 370, but with about the same number of fly ball outs shorter than 370 than Encarnacion.
And here's an oddity that caught my eye: Gary Sanchez of the Yankees had a total of 37 flyball outs of 330 feet or more, and 33 homers. That's really strong percentage. He has a favorable park, but that's a lot of homers per flyball.
Anyway, if I had to crown somebody as the king of the cheap homer in 2017, it would be Edwin Encarnacion, not Brian Dozier.
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
From the Handbook: Shifting
Combining two sections here, complilations of how often teams shifted and how successful those shifts were.
By Baseball Info Systems' accounting, the Twins shifted 906 times in 2017, an increase of 71 shifts from 2016. This includes the at-bats in which the hitter gets to two strikes and THEN Miguel Sano trots over to the first-base side of second base. It might be a one-pitch shift, but it counts because the AB ended with the defense shifted.
This puts the Twins pretty much dead center in the AL in terms of deploying shifts. Seven shifted more often, seven shifted less often.
Brian Dozier is spotlighted in the short introductory essay on hits lost and gained to shifts. Dozier faced 225 shifts in 2017, and BIS says he lost 21 hits to the shift -- and gained 24. Few right-handed hitters face as many shifts as Dozier (Albert Pujols faces more, but that's about it), and it doesn't appear to do much for the opposition.
By Baseball Info Systems' accounting, the Twins shifted 906 times in 2017, an increase of 71 shifts from 2016. This includes the at-bats in which the hitter gets to two strikes and THEN Miguel Sano trots over to the first-base side of second base. It might be a one-pitch shift, but it counts because the AB ended with the defense shifted.
This puts the Twins pretty much dead center in the AL in terms of deploying shifts. Seven shifted more often, seven shifted less often.
Brian Dozier is spotlighted in the short introductory essay on hits lost and gained to shifts. Dozier faced 225 shifts in 2017, and BIS says he lost 21 hits to the shift -- and gained 24. Few right-handed hitters face as many shifts as Dozier (Albert Pujols faces more, but that's about it), and it doesn't appear to do much for the opposition.
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Gold Gloves, Tonk Out and RIP Doc
Both Byron Buxton and Brian Dozier were named winners of the Gold Glove Award on Tuesday.
Buxton, no question. Dozier, not so much. At risk of spoiling what I might comment on when my Handbook series gets to the Fielding Bible Awards section, Dozier wasn't in the top 10 of second basemen in that more-metric oriented approach. As the BIS-arranged voting has it, Ian Kinsler was by far the best fielding second baseman in the American League.
The Gold Gloves have a well-earned reputation for being swayed by a player's hitting, and Dozier has hit more than 100 homers over the past three seasons. Above-average defense and 30-plus homers a season makes him a very good player. But he's not really the best gloveman at his position, as Buxton is.
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The Twins sold Michael Tonkin to the Nippon Ham Fighters of Japanese baseball.
This clears another slot off the 40-man roster -- down now to 33 -- and gives Tonkin a better payday than he was going to get if he remained in the States. He'll get more than $2 million from the Fighters, who are expected to use him as their closer. (The team is owned by Nippon Ham; the name is not intended to imply that they are fighting hams.)
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Roy Halladay never pitched for the Twins, but he was for a decade one of the best pitchers in the game, and his death in a self-piloted plane crash Tuesday was the biggest news in baseball.
"Doc" Halladay was widely seen during his playing days as a likely Hall of Famer, but he didn't have the usual career path. His decline was brief and sudden, and his career totals (205 wins, 2,749 innings) are resultingly small for Cooperstown.
But his peak was longer than that of Johan Santana, his main rival for the title of Best Pitcher of the 2000s, and there are consensus enshrinees who essentially match Halladay's career totals -- Ed Walsh, Sandy Koufax, Rube Waddell, Dazzy Vance. And a few more dubious honorees.
He becomes eligible for the voting next winter -- I doubt the Hall will waive the five-year rule for him as it did for Roberto Clemente -- and his surprising death may perversely increase his chances of first ballot selection.
I think Halladay will eventually get in, and that's fine. I'm not sure he's a more deserving enshrinee than Mike Mussina or even Curt Schilling, but he should get in, sooner or later. Unfortunately, he won't get to be there to enjoy the honor.
Buxton, no question. Dozier, not so much. At risk of spoiling what I might comment on when my Handbook series gets to the Fielding Bible Awards section, Dozier wasn't in the top 10 of second basemen in that more-metric oriented approach. As the BIS-arranged voting has it, Ian Kinsler was by far the best fielding second baseman in the American League.
The Gold Gloves have a well-earned reputation for being swayed by a player's hitting, and Dozier has hit more than 100 homers over the past three seasons. Above-average defense and 30-plus homers a season makes him a very good player. But he's not really the best gloveman at his position, as Buxton is.
---
The Twins sold Michael Tonkin to the Nippon Ham Fighters of Japanese baseball.
This clears another slot off the 40-man roster -- down now to 33 -- and gives Tonkin a better payday than he was going to get if he remained in the States. He'll get more than $2 million from the Fighters, who are expected to use him as their closer. (The team is owned by Nippon Ham; the name is not intended to imply that they are fighting hams.)
---
Roy Halladay never pitched for the Twins, but he was for a decade one of the best pitchers in the game, and his death in a self-piloted plane crash Tuesday was the biggest news in baseball.
"Doc" Halladay was widely seen during his playing days as a likely Hall of Famer, but he didn't have the usual career path. His decline was brief and sudden, and his career totals (205 wins, 2,749 innings) are resultingly small for Cooperstown.
But his peak was longer than that of Johan Santana, his main rival for the title of Best Pitcher of the 2000s, and there are consensus enshrinees who essentially match Halladay's career totals -- Ed Walsh, Sandy Koufax, Rube Waddell, Dazzy Vance. And a few more dubious honorees.
He becomes eligible for the voting next winter -- I doubt the Hall will waive the five-year rule for him as it did for Roberto Clemente -- and his surprising death may perversely increase his chances of first ballot selection.
I think Halladay will eventually get in, and that's fine. I'm not sure he's a more deserving enshrinee than Mike Mussina or even Curt Schilling, but he should get in, sooner or later. Unfortunately, he won't get to be there to enjoy the honor.
Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Dodgers trade for a second baseman, and it's not Brian Dozier
The Los Angeles Dodgers traded prospect pitcher Jose DeLeon to the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday for infielder Logan Forsythe.
This puts complete fini to the speculation that the Dodgers would deal for the Twins' Brian Dozier. Not only do the Dodgers now have Forsythe to plug into second base, but DeLeon -- who was supposedly to be the key (or, perhaps, only) return for the Twins -- is gone.
Nobody on the outside can be completely sure what the asks in the Dodgers-Twins talks were, but supposedly the Dodgers were insistent that it be one-for-one. That's what they wound up with for Forsythe. And Forsythe, while a decent infielder with some pop in his bat, isn't nearly the player Dozier is.
The Twins correctly wanted more than DeLeon, who has never thrown as many as 115 innings in a season, for Dozier. If that's all the Dodgers would offer, the Twins were right to walk away. The Dodgers wound up with a lesser player, but gave up less than they would have to get the better one. They may have been right to stand their ground too.
Bottom line: Unless something is going on below the surface, Dozier is going to be a Twin in 2017. That is not, repeat not, a disaster.
This puts complete fini to the speculation that the Dodgers would deal for the Twins' Brian Dozier. Not only do the Dodgers now have Forsythe to plug into second base, but DeLeon -- who was supposedly to be the key (or, perhaps, only) return for the Twins -- is gone.
Nobody on the outside can be completely sure what the asks in the Dodgers-Twins talks were, but supposedly the Dodgers were insistent that it be one-for-one. That's what they wound up with for Forsythe. And Forsythe, while a decent infielder with some pop in his bat, isn't nearly the player Dozier is.
The Twins correctly wanted more than DeLeon, who has never thrown as many as 115 innings in a season, for Dozier. If that's all the Dodgers would offer, the Twins were right to walk away. The Dodgers wound up with a lesser player, but gave up less than they would have to get the better one. They may have been right to stand their ground too.
Bottom line: Unless something is going on below the surface, Dozier is going to be a Twin in 2017. That is not, repeat not, a disaster.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
From a litle birdie ...
A few Tuesday tweets of note about the Twins:
Not much to see here, I suspect, even if Ryan Vogelsong is a former All-Star. That was back in 2011, when he suddenly emerged as an effective starter with the Giants at age 33. He's 39 now and hasn't good since 2012. Nick Tepesch lacks Vogelsong's track record but is more than a decade younger. He had the same surgery that Phil Hughes is coming back from two years ago.
They'll both be in camp as non-roster invitees. I don't expect much.
When the Twins non-tendered Plouffe early in the offseason, it was said that the veteran third baseman was being given the benefit of an early start on free agency. That it took him well into January to find a landing place suggests that he didn't have much of a market.
I don't know that I would play Plouffe over Ryon Healy at third base, or over Yonder Alonzo or Mark Canha at first. But the A's found more than 500 at-bats for the now-departed Danny Valencia last year. Odd, isn't it, that Plouffe took Valencia's spot when the Twins moved on from him at third base in 2012.
It only takes one phone call to agree to a trade, but I now doubt that Dozier will be dealt this winter. The Twins apparently aren't finding the return they think (and I think) they deserve for him. I gave some reasons why about a week ago.
Twins add pair of veteran righthanders with MLB experience -- Ryan Volgelsong and Nick Tepesch -- to spring roster. https://t.co/Iz7TpIlGsH— Phil Miller (@MillerStrib) January 11, 2017
Not much to see here, I suspect, even if Ryan Vogelsong is a former All-Star. That was back in 2011, when he suddenly emerged as an effective starter with the Giants at age 33. He's 39 now and hasn't good since 2012. Nick Tepesch lacks Vogelsong's track record but is more than a decade younger. He had the same surgery that Phil Hughes is coming back from two years ago.
They'll both be in camp as non-roster invitees. I don't expect much.
Sources: Free-agent infielder Trevor Plouffe to Athletics. Agreement in place. Deal pending a physical.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 11, 2017
When the Twins non-tendered Plouffe early in the offseason, it was said that the veteran third baseman was being given the benefit of an early start on free agency. That it took him well into January to find a landing place suggests that he didn't have much of a market.
I don't know that I would play Plouffe over Ryon Healy at third base, or over Yonder Alonzo or Mark Canha at first. But the A's found more than 500 at-bats for the now-departed Danny Valencia last year. Odd, isn't it, that Plouffe took Valencia's spot when the Twins moved on from him at third base in 2012.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 10, 2017
It only takes one phone call to agree to a trade, but I now doubt that Dozier will be dealt this winter. The Twins apparently aren't finding the return they think (and I think) they deserve for him. I gave some reasons why about a week ago.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
The Dozier market
It's January. Brian Dozier has not yet been traded. It seems increasingly plausible that he won't be traded.
On the surface, Dozier should be excellent trade bait. He's durable; he's good enough afield to stick at second base; he hits for power (41 homers last year, an average of 27.74 the past four years). He's drawn as many as 89 walks in a season. He has a good percentage as a base stealer. He has two years left on a below-market contract.
And yet there does not appear to be a clamor to acquire him. The Dodgers are really the only team being plausibly rumored, and without any genuine competition to make the deal, they are presumably lowballing the Twins.
So ... why isn't there more interest in Dozier?
Age. Dozier turns 30 in May. Teams are much more aware today than they were 10 or even five years ago of how much that matters.
Peak performance. Forty-one homers for a second baseman is awesome, but nobody should bet on him replicating that. Twenty-five to 30, yes -- not to dismiss 25 dingers from a keystoner, but that's not 40. Team aren't valuing Dozier as a 40-homer guy, and shouldn't.
"Motivated seller." The Twins lost 103 games last year with really lousy numbers from the pitching staff. They have, in Jorge Polanco, a reasonable alternative to Dozier at second base (and as with Dozier, Polanco lacks the throwing arm to be a good major league shortstop). The perception is that the Twins "need" to trade Dozier.
"Unmotivated buyers." The teams that have quality pitching prospects in bulk are not -- with the exception of the Dodgers -- in the market for a win-now second baseman. There are certainly contenders that could use Dozier. but they don't have the arms to give up for him. There are teams with deep farm systems, but they either have second base locked up or aren't in contention mode yet.
There have been some remarkable prospect hauls in trades this winter. The White Sox pried a lot of talent from the Red Sox and Nationals in the Chris Sale and Adam Eaton deals. The Twins may well be using those trades as their benchmark for moving Dozier. That may be the correct approach, but it may be too high a standard to get a deal done this winter.
On the surface, Dozier should be excellent trade bait. He's durable; he's good enough afield to stick at second base; he hits for power (41 homers last year, an average of 27.74 the past four years). He's drawn as many as 89 walks in a season. He has a good percentage as a base stealer. He has two years left on a below-market contract.
And yet there does not appear to be a clamor to acquire him. The Dodgers are really the only team being plausibly rumored, and without any genuine competition to make the deal, they are presumably lowballing the Twins.
So ... why isn't there more interest in Dozier?
Age. Dozier turns 30 in May. Teams are much more aware today than they were 10 or even five years ago of how much that matters.
Peak performance. Forty-one homers for a second baseman is awesome, but nobody should bet on him replicating that. Twenty-five to 30, yes -- not to dismiss 25 dingers from a keystoner, but that's not 40. Team aren't valuing Dozier as a 40-homer guy, and shouldn't.
"Motivated seller." The Twins lost 103 games last year with really lousy numbers from the pitching staff. They have, in Jorge Polanco, a reasonable alternative to Dozier at second base (and as with Dozier, Polanco lacks the throwing arm to be a good major league shortstop). The perception is that the Twins "need" to trade Dozier.
"Unmotivated buyers." The teams that have quality pitching prospects in bulk are not -- with the exception of the Dodgers -- in the market for a win-now second baseman. There are certainly contenders that could use Dozier. but they don't have the arms to give up for him. There are teams with deep farm systems, but they either have second base locked up or aren't in contention mode yet.
There have been some remarkable prospect hauls in trades this winter. The White Sox pried a lot of talent from the Red Sox and Nationals in the Chris Sale and Adam Eaton deals. The Twins may well be using those trades as their benchmark for moving Dozier. That may be the correct approach, but it may be too high a standard to get a deal done this winter.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
The story of Davey Johnson, home run hitting second baseman
There is a generation or more of baseball fans who know Davey Johnson as a manager of accomplishment. He managed the '86 Mets to a World Series title, guided four other teams to the postseason, was named manager of the year twice and racked up a .562 winning percentage in 17 seasons.
But if you're old like me, you remember him also as Dave Johnson, player of accomplishment. Four times an All-Star, three times a Gold Glove winner, the everyday second baseman on two World Series champs and on two more pennant winners -- and one of the few keystoners to hit 40 home runs in a season.
It's that last accomplishment that spurs this post, because there are certain parallels to Johnson's one season as a serious slugger and Brian Dozier's remarkable 2016.
Johnson spent most of his career with the Baltimore Orioles. In 1971, he hit 18 homers as the Birds won their third straight American League pennant. He hit .282, he won the Gold Glove, he was 28 years old. He was really good.
And Bobby Grich was ready to play. In 1972, Johnson fell off to .221 with five homers. Grich, splitting time between second base and shortstop, was the second best hitter on a squad that suddenly was having a difficult time scoring runs. The O's had been winning 100-plus games every year; now they were barely above .500. During the offseason Johnson was traded with three teammates to Atlanta.
Where he suddenly morphed into a serious slugger. Two homers in March/April. five in May, nine each in June and July, 12 in August, six more in September/October -- 43 in all. It is one of the great fluke seasons in baseball history. It takes Johnson's three best non-1973 seasons combined just to match his 1973 homer total.
The 1973 Braves had three 40 home-run guys -- Johnson with 43, Darrell Evans with 41 and the aging Hank Aaron with 40 (in just 392 official at-bats). Despite all these sluggers (another future manager of note, Dusty Baker, hit another 21 bombs), the Braves had a sub-.500 season.
It was Johnson's age 30 season, and he had slowed up significantly in the field. The next year he split time between first and second. He hit 15 homers in 1974, his third highest career mark. And that was his last season as a regular. The Braves released him, he went to play in Japan, he came back to bounce around the majors as a reserve, and he played his last game in 1978.
What happened in 1973 to make Johnson a big-time homer guy? One factor was Atlanta's home park, the Launching Pad. Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium was a notorious home-run generator, and 26 of Johnson's homers that year came in home games. That's only part of his surge, of course; he had 17 homers on the road, which almost matches his next-best full season.
Johnson himself years later offered another explanation: He had, he said. learned that he was a "zone hitter." Instead of looking for a specific pitch (fastball), he was better off looking for an offering in a specific portion of the strike zone, regardless of whether it was a fastball or a breaking ball. That knowledge came just as the rest of his game was deteriorating, however, so he got only one big season out of it.
There appears to be a good bit of that in Dozier's approach. He gets an inside pitch, he whacks it.
So what does Johnson's story imply about Brian Dozier's future? Possibly nothing. Everybody's different, and the parallels, while certainly present, aren't precise.
Dozier is in his age 29 season, one year younger than Johnson was in his big year. Presumably he's in better condition than Johnson was 43 years ago, in an era when players worked offseason jobs rather than workout constantly, but athletes still frequently fall off sharply once they hit 30. Unlike Johnson, Dozier has had significant home run seasons in the past. I don't expect Dozier's career to crumble as rapidly as Johnson's did.
But the odds are that Dozier's not going to be a 40-homer guy next year, or the year after. That's not to take away from what he's doing. That's simply reality.
But if you're old like me, you remember him also as Dave Johnson, player of accomplishment. Four times an All-Star, three times a Gold Glove winner, the everyday second baseman on two World Series champs and on two more pennant winners -- and one of the few keystoners to hit 40 home runs in a season.
It's that last accomplishment that spurs this post, because there are certain parallels to Johnson's one season as a serious slugger and Brian Dozier's remarkable 2016.
Johnson spent most of his career with the Baltimore Orioles. In 1971, he hit 18 homers as the Birds won their third straight American League pennant. He hit .282, he won the Gold Glove, he was 28 years old. He was really good.
And Bobby Grich was ready to play. In 1972, Johnson fell off to .221 with five homers. Grich, splitting time between second base and shortstop, was the second best hitter on a squad that suddenly was having a difficult time scoring runs. The O's had been winning 100-plus games every year; now they were barely above .500. During the offseason Johnson was traded with three teammates to Atlanta.
Where he suddenly morphed into a serious slugger. Two homers in March/April. five in May, nine each in June and July, 12 in August, six more in September/October -- 43 in all. It is one of the great fluke seasons in baseball history. It takes Johnson's three best non-1973 seasons combined just to match his 1973 homer total.
The 1973 Braves had three 40 home-run guys -- Johnson with 43, Darrell Evans with 41 and the aging Hank Aaron with 40 (in just 392 official at-bats). Despite all these sluggers (another future manager of note, Dusty Baker, hit another 21 bombs), the Braves had a sub-.500 season.
It was Johnson's age 30 season, and he had slowed up significantly in the field. The next year he split time between first and second. He hit 15 homers in 1974, his third highest career mark. And that was his last season as a regular. The Braves released him, he went to play in Japan, he came back to bounce around the majors as a reserve, and he played his last game in 1978.
What happened in 1973 to make Johnson a big-time homer guy? One factor was Atlanta's home park, the Launching Pad. Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium was a notorious home-run generator, and 26 of Johnson's homers that year came in home games. That's only part of his surge, of course; he had 17 homers on the road, which almost matches his next-best full season.
Johnson himself years later offered another explanation: He had, he said. learned that he was a "zone hitter." Instead of looking for a specific pitch (fastball), he was better off looking for an offering in a specific portion of the strike zone, regardless of whether it was a fastball or a breaking ball. That knowledge came just as the rest of his game was deteriorating, however, so he got only one big season out of it.
There appears to be a good bit of that in Dozier's approach. He gets an inside pitch, he whacks it.
So what does Johnson's story imply about Brian Dozier's future? Possibly nothing. Everybody's different, and the parallels, while certainly present, aren't precise.
Dozier is in his age 29 season, one year younger than Johnson was in his big year. Presumably he's in better condition than Johnson was 43 years ago, in an era when players worked offseason jobs rather than workout constantly, but athletes still frequently fall off sharply once they hit 30. Unlike Johnson, Dozier has had significant home run seasons in the past. I don't expect Dozier's career to crumble as rapidly as Johnson's did.
But the odds are that Dozier's not going to be a 40-homer guy next year, or the year after. That's not to take away from what he's doing. That's simply reality.
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Brian Dozier, 40 home-run man
 |
| Brian Dozier in the dugout Monday after No. 40. |
Anyway: 40 homers is one more than 39 and one less than 41, but that zero give it a lot more resonance with us. Forty is a milestone. The Twins moved to Minnesota in 1961 from Washington; in that time, only Harmon Killebrew had reached that milestone, and he did it seven times -- plus one in Washington before the move, One other Washington Senator hit 40 (Roy Sievers). So in the 116 seasons that the franchise has existed, 40 homers has been reached 10 times -- Killebrew eight times, Sievers once, and now Dozier.
Dozier is an unlikely candidate to reach that level of power production. Consider that Kent Hrbek never came particularly close to 40 homers. Nor did Justin Morneau, or Gary Gaetti, or Dozier's hitting coach, Tom Brunansky, power hitters all. Until this year, the non-Killebrew home run champ for Minnesota was Josh Willingham and his 35 in 2012.
Dozier was not a power guy in the minors. His season high before reaching Minnesota was nine in a season split between High A and Double A. As a minor leaguer, he hit like a stereotypical middle infielder, with a focus on hitting for average and getting on base.
He has been anything but that stereotype in the majors. In the same season he shifted from shortstop and became the regular second baseman, he started turning himself into a pull-happy power threat with an ever-increasing home run mark. Eighteen, 23, 28, and now 40 and counting.
But the stereotype persists. I have even this year heard Dan Gladden babbling about Dozier's hitting style and wondered who he's talking about; the Dozier he described is not the Dozier of reality. Gladden was imposing the typical second baseman on Dozier -- the contact hitter, the guy you put on the hit-and-run with, the guy sets the table so the big boppers can eat.
Dozier IS one of those big boppers. Forty homers is plenty of evidence for that. But it's not just broadcasters stuck on the second base mold. After all, Dozier spends a lot more time hitting leadoff than cleanup. Which is part of why 28 of his 40 homers have been solo shots.
Sunday, August 21, 2016
Pic of the Week
 |
| Brian Dozier catches a pop fly Tuesday night in Atlanta. |
So ... how good a defensive second baseman is Brian Dozier?
My sense of things is that the Twins believe he's very good. The metrics are less certain.
Baseball Reference lists two primary metrics, Total Zone and Runs Saved. Runs Saved is kinder to Dozier; in 2013-16 -- his four seasons as the Twins regular second baseman -- he's slightly above average in that measure. Total Zone has consistently had him below average. The defensive component of BR's version of Wins Above Replacement generally credits him with a positive contribution.
If the metrics agreed, that would be a step toward certainty. They don't.
What we do know is that Dozier is an uncommonly productive power hitter for the position. This is his third year with 20-plus homers. He's slugging well above .500. Even if we assume that he's a bit less than average with the glove, he's still helping.
Monday, June 20, 2016
The (apparent) end of Sano in the outfield
Terry Ryan, in his semi-regular radio appearance Sunday, said that the current plan is for Miguel Sano to go on a rehab assignment later in the week. And when the big guy returns to the majors, it won't be as an outfielder.
He'll DH, the general manager said, while deferring to the absent manager, Paul Molitor. He'll play third base some. He might even play some first base. But not right field, which was Sano's usual position before his hamstring pull, because of the leg issues. Sano's future? Said Ryan: "No question, it's third base."
No question? Really, Mr. Ryan?
I am, let us say, dubious of the implication that it will be easier to keep Sano healthy and in the lineup as a third baseman. I can, off the top of my head, rattle off the names of several third basemen whose careers were curtailed or limited by back problems, from John Castino to Ryan Zimmerman. Anecdotally, the position seems to be tough on backs. And personal experience tells me than hamstring issues and back issues tend to go hand in hand; an injury to one often presages an injury to the other.
That said, Ryan has more qualified medical and training advisors than me. And Sano obviously did not fare well in the outfield. I've said before that there is probably never going to be a position at which Sano is the best defensive option; wherever he plays, there's going to be a trade off of defense for offense. Which makes the question: Where does Sano least hurt the club? The Twins brain trust decided early in the offseason that the answer was right field, in part because that allowed Trevor Plouffe to remain the third baseman.
Another question: How do the Twins reshape the roster if Sano is no longer to play outfield? Ryan has in the past suggested that maintaining Sano's weight is a reason to have him playing a position and not be primarily a designated hitter. In the short term, DH may have to be the fall back, as it was in the second half of 2015. If he's going to be the DH the rest of the way, there's no real purpose to Byung Ho Park's presence on the roster.
But if Sano is "no question" a third baseman in the future, that takes away Plouffe's position. (And if he's no longer an outfielder, that makes it easier to give Max Kepler a sustained opportunity.) I said in today's print column that I will be disappointed if the Twins don't deal away at least one of their veteran infielders before the trading deadline, and I focused on Plouffe and Brian Dozier.
I wrote that before hearing Ryan. Nothing I heard him say contradicts my thinking, even though his concern is fitting Sano into the lineup rather than Jorge Polanco. Third question: Why not both?
Bottom line: The Twins shaped their 2016 plans around Sano in the outfield. 2016 has not gone well, and that plan is being jettisoned. But the roster has to be reworked to reflect that new reality.
He'll DH, the general manager said, while deferring to the absent manager, Paul Molitor. He'll play third base some. He might even play some first base. But not right field, which was Sano's usual position before his hamstring pull, because of the leg issues. Sano's future? Said Ryan: "No question, it's third base."
No question? Really, Mr. Ryan?
I am, let us say, dubious of the implication that it will be easier to keep Sano healthy and in the lineup as a third baseman. I can, off the top of my head, rattle off the names of several third basemen whose careers were curtailed or limited by back problems, from John Castino to Ryan Zimmerman. Anecdotally, the position seems to be tough on backs. And personal experience tells me than hamstring issues and back issues tend to go hand in hand; an injury to one often presages an injury to the other.
That said, Ryan has more qualified medical and training advisors than me. And Sano obviously did not fare well in the outfield. I've said before that there is probably never going to be a position at which Sano is the best defensive option; wherever he plays, there's going to be a trade off of defense for offense. Which makes the question: Where does Sano least hurt the club? The Twins brain trust decided early in the offseason that the answer was right field, in part because that allowed Trevor Plouffe to remain the third baseman.
Another question: How do the Twins reshape the roster if Sano is no longer to play outfield? Ryan has in the past suggested that maintaining Sano's weight is a reason to have him playing a position and not be primarily a designated hitter. In the short term, DH may have to be the fall back, as it was in the second half of 2015. If he's going to be the DH the rest of the way, there's no real purpose to Byung Ho Park's presence on the roster.
But if Sano is "no question" a third baseman in the future, that takes away Plouffe's position. (And if he's no longer an outfielder, that makes it easier to give Max Kepler a sustained opportunity.) I said in today's print column that I will be disappointed if the Twins don't deal away at least one of their veteran infielders before the trading deadline, and I focused on Plouffe and Brian Dozier.
I wrote that before hearing Ryan. Nothing I heard him say contradicts my thinking, even though his concern is fitting Sano into the lineup rather than Jorge Polanco. Third question: Why not both?
Bottom line: The Twins shaped their 2016 plans around Sano in the outfield. 2016 has not gone well, and that plan is being jettisoned. But the roster has to be reworked to reflect that new reality.
Sunday, July 12, 2015
Pic of the Week
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| Brian Dozier brings his game-winning home run home Friday night at Target Field. |
On Monday Dozier learned that he had not been selected as a reserve for the All-Star team but would be on the ballot for the "final vote" clickbait voting. That evening, he hit a walk-off homer to beat the Baltimore Orioles.
On Wednesday he popped another go-ahead home run. It was less dramatic because it didn't come in the ninth inning, but it sure did matter in the win.
On Wednesday he popped another go-ahead home run. It was less dramatic because it didn't come in the ninth inning, but it sure did matter in the win.
On Friday he learned that he had missed the roster by that method also. That evening, he capped a remarkable ninth-inning rally -- down 6-1 going into the ninth inning -- with another walk-off homer.
And then on Saturday he was named to the All-Star team as an injury replacement for Jose Bautista. That was an imminently predictable outcome.
I never shared the general displeasure among Twins fans about Dozier's All-Star "snub". There are a number of deserving second basemen in the American League, and neither Jose Altuve nor Jason Kipnis are embarrassments on the roster. Too many players are on the All-Star rosters anyway.
His absence from the roster wouldn't have detracted from what he's accomplished.
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