Monday, February 10, 2014

Baseball America's 32nd Twins prospect

Sean Gilmartin as the ace of the
Florida State Seminoles in 2011,
when Atlanta made him the 28th
overall pick in the draft.
As I noted in Friday's post, buyers who order Baseball America's Prospect Handbook annual through their website get a supplement with a 31st prospect for each team. (In a tribute to Spinal Tap, BA says it "made our Top 30 reports one louder.")

In truth, the Twins have 32 prospects profiled in the Handbook. Sean Gilmartin, the former first-round draft pick the Twins got from Atlanta in the Ryan Doumit deal in December, is listed with the Braves, as their No. 10 prospect.

Discovering that over the weekend led me to wonder where Gilmartin would fit in the Twins' rankings. BA graded the lefthander as a 45 Medium. A 45 pitcher translates as a backend starter or a middle reliever; the book's definition portion cites Kevin Corriea and Matt Guerrier as examples of 45 pitchers. The Medium means he "still has some work to do to turn tools into major-league caliber skills."

BA essentially regards five points of ceiling as equivalent to one step of risk, so a 45 Medium equals a 50 High equals a 55 Extreme.

The Twins prospect list has 50 Highs from No. 8 though No. 11 (Trevor May, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler), followed by a 55 Extreme (Fernando Romero), another 50 High (Stephen Gonsalves), two 45 mediums (Josmil Pinto and Mike Tonkin), three more 50 Highs, then another 45 Medium, then a 50 High ... all told there are 13 prospects for the Twins in the same bracket as Gilmartin.

Given the BA list, I would slot Gilmartin at No. 16, after Tonkin but ahead of Adam Brett Walker. BA might differ on that.

1 comment:

  1. I think Adam Brett Walker is going to be a sleeper star. He went from 31 on BAs prospect list last year to Midwest League MVP. His K Rate dropped to 20% which is not bad for a guy considered a slugger (27 & 109). As he improves his OBP this year - look for a Paul Goldschmidt comp moving forward (batting stats). I think he will be worthy of Top 10 by mid season. Well ahead of Gilmartin and others.