Showing posts with label problem spot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label problem spot. Show all posts

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Problem spot: Rundowns after pickoffs

Finally, Alexi Casilla makes the tag.
It didn't cost them Wednesday's game — it didn't even cost an out, much less a run.

But the Twins infield still managed to embarrass itself trying to get a runner out after picking him off first base.

File this under "doing the little things wrong — repeatedly."

Wednesday's play came in the ninth inning, when Dusty Hughes picked off Franklin Gutierrez. The play was scored 1-3-4-3-6-4. That's at least two throws too many for that play, and it represented at least the fourth time the Twins have had difficulty executing a rundown between first and second base. At least this time they got the runner out.

I saw a similar screwed-up rundown during my spring training sojourn.  That one featured a collection of minor leaguers until Matt Tolbert got the ball and ran down the runner himself. I figured than that the next morning would feature the rundown until everybody in camp would have dreams about the play the following night. That would fix it.

It instead presaged one of the more irritating trends of the Twins season. It's basic stuff, and the infield is bollixing it on a regular basis.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Problem spot: Power

As I write this, Baseball Reference has yet to update with the results from Monday. Inasmuch as the Twins had just 10 singles in 11 innings Monday — not a single extra-base hit in Fenway Park — it hardly undermines the premise.
The Twins had a total of five extra bases hits in their
four-game series in Boston.

The Twins' slugging percentage through 32 games: .323. That's last in the American League; only Seattle — a team without the established hitters the Twins have — is within 30 points.

The Twins are also last in the AL in batting average and on-base percentage —they're last in runs scored on merit — but I want to focus on the lack of power here.

It's not that surprising that the Twins aren't hitting home runs; even last season, when they were fifth in the AL in run scored, they were below average in homers. But while Target Field limits homers, it yields doubles and triples (the 2010 Twins led the AL in three-baggers and were third in doubles, just one two-bagger out of second place).

This year? Last in homers, second worst in doubles, 10th in triples.

Jason Kubel is doing his part. Denard Span is doing his job in the leadoff spot, which doesn't include a lot of extra-base hits. But between the injuries and the slumps, nobody else is producing up to par. Not counting Trevor Plouffe and his 10 at-bats, the second highest slugging percentage on the team is .375 (Jim Thome, currently on the disabled list). The AVERAGE slugging percentage in the AL in 2010 was .407.

Can this turn around? Logically, it should. Taking J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson out of the lineup shouldn't take almost a hundred points off the slugging percentage.

But ... Justin Morneau's clearly not where he was before his concussion. Thome's 40 and wasn't a real good bet to replicate 2010. Danny Valencia's minor league record suggests he overproduced last season. Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young have never than all that consistent. Nobody knows when Joe Mauer will be back.  Lord knows why anybody pitches to Kubel at this point.

And that's the pop. The rest of the roster is, as hitters, not designed to garner extra base hits. They;re supposed to get on base, run and help keep the Twins starters in the game. How well they're doing that is another matter.

Monday, May 9, 2011

Problem spot: Infield defense

This dropped fly ball in left field by Ben Revere
was one of three errors charged against the Twins
Sunday. There were other unmade plays, not
scored as errors, that hurt their chances.
A basic rule of thumb: Shuffling middle infielders in and out of the lineup is bad for the defense. Double play combos thrive on familiarity.

So it shouldn't be overly surprising that that the Twins have had poor middle infield defense this season. They've played five different men at second base (Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Luke Hughes, Michael Cuddyer, Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla) and three different men at shortstop (Tolbert, Casilla and Trevor Plouffe).

Plouffe is supposed to be the regular at short for now -- at least until Nishioka is ready to play, and maybe beyond. But his play afield Sunday was somewhat less than airtight.

Not that he was alone. Consider the third inning, in which the Red Sox scored four runs and took a 5-3 lead. All four runs were earned, but the Twins had numerous opportunities to get out of the inning. (I should note here that  I saw none of the disaster; I was, at that point, following the game on the radio and hence a hostage to the observations of Gladden and Gordon; this is less than optimal.)

Carl Crawford triples. The radio boys suggested that Denard Span might have been able to catch the ball but instead settled for trying to play the carom instead. Said carom got away from him, allowing Crawford to reach third. So Span passed on the risky play of trying for the out, then failed in the fallback position of holding Crawford to a double.

Jason Varitek grounds to first, scoring Crawford. In an alternative universe in which Span catches Crawford's ball, there are now two outs; in the one in which Span holds Crawford to two bases, Crawford advances to third.

Jacoby Ellsbury singles past Plouffe.The radio boys and Joe Christensen of the Strib agree: This could have been ruled an error on Plouffe. (The ruling of single extended Ellbury's hitting streak.) Hsad this play bene made ... it could be the third out in one scenario, or it could have scored Crawford in another, or it could have left him at third. I'll assume it would have scored Crawford. But at least there'd be two outs and nobody on.

Ellsbury steals second. Of course he did; Pavano is notoriously poor at holding runners. In a cleanly played inning, of course, there's no steal because he's not on base.

Dustin Pedroia walks. No defense for the base on balls. Adrian Gonzalez singles. Ellsbury scores, Pedroia to third.

Kevin Youkilis grounds into a force out. Gordon's initial call anticipated an inning-ending double play, but Plouffe and Casilla couldn't turn it. Pedroia scores.

At this point there have been multiple ways out of the inning. Maybe Span catches Crawford's triple. Maybe Plouffe snares Ellsbury's grounder. Maybe the double play is turned. Maybe the Twins yield one run, maybe two. Instead, they've yielded three, and the inning is still alive.

And it goes on to include two more singles and a throwing error by Drew Butera trying to pick Youkilis off. The wonder isn't that they gave up four runs in the inning, but that it was only four runs.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Problem spot: First base

The Twins enter today's game with the White Sox 9-18 and 10 games out of first place.

As bad as that sounds — as bad as that IS — it's not fatal. Cleveland and Kansas City still don't look like long-term contenders to me, and the Twins are within two games of both Chicago and Detroit.

But, obviously, the Twins can't keep playing .333 ball. They're in last place on merit, failing and flailing in almost every category. There are, I think, six players — Denard Span and Jason Kubel among the position players, Scott Baker and Brian Duensing among the starting pitchers, Matt Capps and Glen Perkins in the bullpen — who are doing what they're expected to do (or, in Perkins' case, exceeding expectations).

Justin Morneau hit
his first homer of the
season on Sunday.
Everybody else is part of the problem. And the sheer bulk of problems is itself a problem.

Today I'll start examining specific issues. And I'm going to start with one of the former MVPs, Justin Morneau.

I'm no doctor, but it seems fairly obvious that last season's concussion remains a problem. Even without considering his month-long slump (.225/.289/.338 with one homer), the defensive sloppiness suggests a certain lack of acuity.

Twice this season the Twins have picked a runner off first base and lost him in the rundown. Both failed rundowns began to break down when Morneau made a wrong decision. Against Toronto — in the very first inning of the very first game — he gave up the ball too soon; against Kansas City on Sunday he held the ball too long. A rundown is a rather fluid play, and he seems unable to keep up with it.

It was reported this weekend that he remains on medication and subject to fatigue. Obviously he has been cleared by the medical people to play, and I accept the assertion that he's at no greater risk of injury than anybody else, even with the meds.

But to this decidedly non-medical set of eyes, he's not ready to play.

I don't expect him to bench himself. The man has taken far too much criticism the past couple of years for missing games, he's medically cleared to play, he wants to try to earn his pay, he's important to the team.

He's not producing, and I doubt that he's physically capable of producing — not only to his accustomed standards, but merely to the level of a major-league first baseman.