BA's Top 31 Twins prospects

Miguel Sano of the Twins system is
the cover boy for the Handbook this year.

My copy of Baseball America's annual Prospect Handbook arrived Thursday.

The publication's Top 10 Twins prospects was released last month, and I commented at the time about the absence of Josmil Pinto, who I figured should be no lower than No. 5.

He is No. 14 on BA's list. They're clearly unimpressed with Pinto's defensive skills behind the plate, and wary of the recurring shoulder issues that hampered him in midseason and during the winter.

Other items of note from a quick perusal of the Twins section:

• The Cedar Rapids club, in the Low A Midwest League, figures to have a loaded starting rotation. The Handbook projects Kohl Stewart (No. 4 on the Twins list), Lewis Thorpe (7), Fernando Romero (12), Stephen Gonsalves (13) and Felix Jorge (17) as Kernels starters this season. Plus there's Randy Rosario (22), who the book predicts will be used as a swingman.
• Nine of the 31 players BA ranks for the Twins (30 in the book and one more in the "bonus supplement" that goes to those who buy from the BA website) were signed out of the Dominican Republic,  not bad for an organization that only recently made much of an effort there. Two of them (Lewin Diaz, No. 21, and Roni Tapia, No. 29) have yet to play pro ball on any level.
• Bryon Buxton got a 75-Low grade. BA uses the 80-20 scale common in baseball scouting, with 80 being top of the chart, and adds a "risk factor" — Low, Medium, High and Extreme. Buxton's 75 is the high score in the book, and he's one of the very few Low risk players profiled. Cover boy Miguel Sano is a 70-Medium. 
• BA rates the Twins third in overall minor league talent, behind Pittsburgh and Boston.
• All four of BA's evaluators have the same top three overall prospects: Buxton No. 1, followed by Boston shortstop Xavier Bogearts and St. Louis outfielder Oscar Taveras. Sano rates from No. 4 to No. 10. Alex Meyer made two of the evaluators' top 50 list, Stewart one list.

Eye on 2014: Left field

Josh Willingham
hit 35 homers in 2012
but fell off to 14
last year.

We know this: Josh Willingham, if healthy, will be the Twins left fielder to open the season.

Whether he will be there at season's end is another matter.

Willingham turns 35 this month, and this is the last year of his contract. Outfield is one of the minor league system's strong suits, and I don't expect the Twins to make a strong push to retain him past 2014.

Even healthy, he may not be particularly valuable. He doesn't help a team in the field or on the bases, and his offense is basically limited to the long ball. Power is a valued commodity, of course, and if the Hammer is healthy and productive this summer, there might be a trade market for him.

That's the best case scenario for the Twins with him: That he's fully recovered from last year's knee injury and hitting well into the summer, making him a useful trade chip. But we shouldn't delude ourselves into believing that he could be traded for a high-end pitcher, or even a high-end prospect. At his best, Willingham is a flawed player, and there's a limit to what teams will surrender for a two- or three-month rental.

Heck, he's basically the same player as Nelson Cruz — right-handed slugger, an "outfielder" of minimal defensive value — except that Willingham is two years older. Cruz can't find a taker on the free agent market, although a big part of that is that he will cost a draft pick and presumably he's seeking more than twice Willingham's salary. (Cruz turned down a qualifying offer from Texas, which would be something in excess of $14 million for one year; Willingham is to get $7 million this year.)

OK: Say the Twins do move Willingham in July. Who's in line to take the job?

(This speculation is based on the theory that the corner outfield spots to open the season will be manned by Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia with Jason Kubel as the DH.)

One possibility would be that this is the trade that opens a lineup slot for Miguel Sano. Trevor Plouffe moves from third to the outfield, and Sano steps in at third.

A non-Sano possibility — or a non-Plouffe one — would have Chris Parmelee or Chris Colabello gaining playing time, Parmelee most likely as an outfielder and Colabello as a DH, with Kubel playing in the field.

And there's Aaron Hicks. He may not open the season in the majors, but in that case he may well be a mid-season callup.

There's also the possibility that Byron Buxton will pull a Mike Trout and so dominate Double A that the Twins feel compelled to bring him to the bigs ahead of their preferred schedule.

All this, of course, assumes that Willingham is productive enough that somebody else will want him for the stretch drive. That's not guaranteed.

Baseball, football, Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson

Ran across this old Liberty Meadows daily strip last week and filed it away for future use:

I'm with the dog on this one. (Big surprise, huh?)

The baseball or football question came up in a surprising context this week when Baseball America announced its preseason All-America teams, and Jameis Winston — better known as the Heisman Trophy winner and quarterback of the national champion Florida State Seminoles — was named to the third team as a utility player. (Winston is both a pitcher and an outfielder for the Seminoles.)

Jameis Winston pitches for Florida State — when he's
not in the outfield, and when he's not playing quarterback.

Not everybody is sold on Winston as a baseball prospect — Keith Law of ESPN has been dismissive of the notion on Twitter — but BA touted him as a high schooler, and describes him now as a potential first round talent as either a pitcher or an outfielder. It's also worth noting that its All-American teams are derived via a poll of MLB scouting directors.

To be fair to the skeptics, they don't doubt his tools so much as they doubt that he will develop the skills needed to be a true baseball player, as opposed to an impressive athlete playing baseball. Playing quarterback is Winston's day job. Baseball is a hobby (to reverse Bo Jackson's description of his NFL days). There's a lot of nuance to high-level baseball, and he's just not going to have the opportunity to develop in the sport on a part-time basis.

Winston will be eligible for the baseball and football drafts the same year (2015), and nobody expects him to be an easy baseball sign. He would likely step right into the starting lineup with whatever NFL team drafts him; in baseball, he would have the humbling experience of the minor leagues. On the other hand, he has a better chance of not being crippled after his playing days if he goes with baseball.

Even if Winston is serious about baseball, I think baseball would have a better shot at landing him if it weren't for the draft spending rules put in place two years ago. It will likely take serious cash to buy out his football ambitions, and those same football ambitions will discourage teams from using a high pick to claim his baseball rights.

Then there's Russell Wilson, quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks and, officially, a minor-league infielder in the Texas Rangers system. I say officially because Wilson, who played two seasons in the Colorado Rockies system (hitting .229/.354/.356 in 93 games in A ball) hasn't played baseball since 2011. An outstanding quarterback, but not a major league prospect, much less a major league player.

The Rangers claimed Wilson in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft in December, and apparently the quarterback is expected to come to spring training. This appears more likely to be a speaking engagement than an athletic endeavor, however.

Eye on 2014: Shortstop

Incumbent Pedro Florimon was good in the field
and not at the plate.

Incumbent shortstop Pedro Florimon said during TwinsFest that he had been told going into the 2013 season that he was the Twins shortstop. He also said he had not been given that assurance this winter.

And he shouldn't be a sure thing. Florimon was one of the better defensive shortstops in the majors last season -- by Baseball Info Systems' runs saved and plus minus metrics, he was probably the best in the non-Andrelton Simmons division -- but his offensive numbers were awful (.221/.281/.330).

Rermember: The Twins were near the bottom of the AL in runs scored. They can't easily afford to give up a lineup spot.

But who else might the Twins turn to to man the position? Florimon is clearly Option A still, but there are two other possibilities on the 40-man roster, and one not on anybody's roster.

Option B: Eduardo Escobar. Like Florimon, Escobar is a switch hitter with a good-field no-hit reputation. .He is two years younger than the incumbent, and he did have an impressive batting line in Rochester after the Twins sent him down at the All-Star break (.307/.380/.500).

If that slash line were valid, Escobar might well be a better choice than Florimon. The problem is, those two months aren't backed up with any other indication that he can hit.

Option C: Danny Santana. He's hit for good averages in High A (2012) and Double A (2013); Baseball America listed him as the Twins' No. 7 prospect and as the best defensive infielder in the system.

I'm less optimistic about him. I see chronic problems in controlling the strike zone. Last year, at New Britain, he walked 24 times and struck out 94 times. He's had that kind of ugly ratio at each level. I have trouble imagining how he's going to keep hitting .280 and higher with that poor ratio.

As for the defense, he commits a lot of errors. While the Twins claim the boots are because of his superior range, it's pretty clear he's muffing routine plays as well.

Maybe he really is a future regular. Even if he is, I doubt this is the year for that. I see Triple A for him.

Option D: Free agent Stephen Drew. The regular for the Red Sox last season, Drew remains on the market in large part because (a) he will cost the signing team a draft pick; (b) his agent is Scott Boras, who is, to be charitable, a patient negotiator insistent on top dollar; and (c) teams may well be wary of Drew's injury history.

Drew is 30. He played 124 games (plus the postseason) last year; he was limited to 86 and 79 games the previous two seasons. The Red Sox, with Xavier Bogearts ready, appear more interested in collecting an extra pick than in retaining Drew.

It would be extremely out of character for the Twins to sign Drew. Terry Ryan is always loathe to surrender a draft pick. (In the Twins' case, signing Drew would cost their second-round pick, not their first rounder, but it would still be a premium pick.)

There is, I'm sure, a combination of price and contract length at which Ryan and Co. would be willing to give up that pick. I don't know that Boras is going to agree to something so team-friendly that Ryan would agree to it, but Drew doesn't seem to have a lot of options right now.

Part of this equation may well be how highly the Twins really regard Santana. If they truly view him as the shortstop of the future, splurging on Drew just gets in the way. If they have the same reservations about Santana that I have, Drew makes a lot more sense.

I'm pretty sure the Twins don't regard Florimon or Escobar as long-term solutions at short.

Former Twins shortstop Jason Bartlett will be in camp as a nonroster invitee, but I can't see him as a serious possibility. Bartlett is 34. He hasn't played well since 2010 at the latest and hasn't played at all since the first month or so of 2012. The Twins don't really have anything invested in him, and they won't get anything out of him.

Eye on 2014: Third base

Trevor Plouffe
hit 14 homers in
2013, a notable
dropoff from
2012's surge.

This is a critical, career-shaping season for Trevor Plouffe, the incumbent third baseman.

The Twins are waiting on Miguel Sano, and the Dominican's arrival will be on his own timetable. Nothing Plouffe does is going to delay Sano. Sano's elbow is probably the biggest question mark, but if it's as sound as the Twins seem to think it to be, Sano will be in Minnesota by midseason if not sooner.

And then what for Plouffe?

He played his way out of the middle infield in 2011. He was supposed to shift to the outfield in 2012, but Danny Valencia had a career crisis of his own and Plouffe stepped in at third base and enjoyed a brief but remarkable power surge that ended with a hand injury. His bat regressed in 2013 even as his shaky defense at the hot corner improved.

Plouffe is, today, a 27-year-old with 1,351 major league plate appearances and a career .240/.300/.411 slashline. His OPS+ is five percent below league average. And with arbitration having kicked in, he's not exactly low-priced either. There's not much there to recommend him.

When Sano is deemed ready, Sano will be the third baseman. Plouffe is not good enough to block the prospect.

Plouffe's track record says he not productive enough a hitter to be a regular corner outfielder. The same is true of first base, which is blocked by Joe Mauer anyway. We do know Plouffe's defense in the middle infield won't work in anything other than an emergency role.

One can imagine him as a corner outfielder, at least after Josh Willingham and/or Jason Kubel are gone (both are signed for 2014 only), but he's got to hit better than he has. One can imagine him in a super-utility role -- filling in at third base, corner outfield and first base while the regular gets a semi-day-off as the DH, and doing some DHing himself. Or maybe a team with a hole of its own at third base would be interested in trading for Plouffe.

The ideal use of Plouffe may well be as a platoon player. His career OPS against lefties is about 180 points higher than against righties. He and Kubel (as a DH/outfielder) would be a pairing out of an Earl Weaver dream. But the Twins, or at least Ron Gardenhire, actively resist such leveraging of strengths vs. weakness, so that's not likely to happen.

The Sunday Funnies

It's the 1950s. The Boston Red Sox are breaking in a new shortstop, Billy Klaus. Klaus has a hot streak, bopping three homers in a week or so, and Ted Williams decides to take him down a notch.

"Hey, kid," the Thumper asks, "how many home runs did you hit last year at Minneapolis?"

"Twenty-one," Klaus replies.

"Yeah? I remember I hit 21 homers at Minneapolis," Williams responds, giving Klaus' chest a moment to swell before adding: "and 22 more on the road."

Eye on 2014: Second base

Brian Dozier (2) brings one of his 18 home runs home.
He hit more dingers in 2013 than he had in his four
minor league seasons combined (16).

There will be no spring training suspense about second base for the Twins. With the 50-game suspension of Eddie Rosario kicking in at the start of the season, the only way Brian Dozier won't be the regular this year is if he gets crippled.

But Dozier, 27 in May, is a prime yardstick by which to measure this team's progress.

He spent most of 2013 hitting in the upper third of the lineup: leadoff after Aaron Hicks failed so emphatically there in the first month, second when Ron Gardenhire opted to return Joe Mauer to the third slot, third in September when Mauer was sidelined, Justin Morneau traded and Josh Willingham hobbled.

Dozier hit .244/.312/.414 with 18 homers — dead average by OPS+. That's fine for a good defensive second baseman, which Dozier is. But it's not productive enough to justify 620-plus plate appearances.

The Twins were 13th in the 15-team American League in runs scored in 2013, a ranking that cannot be over emphasized. Dozier was part of the problem. Or, more specifically, the fact that Dozier was justifiably in the top third of the lineup was part of the problem.

The Twins won't be a good offensive team until Dozier is hitting in the bottom third of the lineup, not the top third. If he's hitting 1-2-3, it means either that the rest of the lineup is as bad as it was in 2013 (pretty darn bad) or that the manager is constructing a substandard batting order.

My guess is that in April, Dozier will be in the upper third, for reason No. 1. We should hope that as the wave of talent arrives, Dozier slides to a more appropriate lineup slot.