Bullpen candidate profile: Jim Hoey

Jim Hoey last pitched
in the majors in 2007.
Since then, it's been
injury, surgery, rehab.

Pitcher: Jim Hoey
Throws: Right
Age: 28
Roster status: 40-man roster; option status unclear.
Chance of making team: Good to fair.

When I said in Wednesday's post about Anthony Slama that he may have to wait for somebody more obviously talented to fail before he gets a clean shot at a Twins bullpen job, this was the guy I had in mind.

Slama has average velocity; Hoey routinely throws in the upper 90s. Slama was drafted in the 39th round, which means the Twins have a minimal investment in him; Hoey came in December's J.J. Hardy trade, which makes him third-generation fruit of the Johan Santana trade (Santana for Gomez for Hardy for Hoey).

Like Slama, Hoey pitched in Monday's exhibition game; like Slama, he gave up two runs in one inning. His two came on a single followed by a home run by Josh Reddick.

Ron Gardenhire, quoted on the StarTribune website:

Even the pitch [Reddick] went deep on was not a bad pitch. It was down, with an angle and good velocity. I like to see that velocity. ... You can be successful with a fastball down, too, and [Hoey] looked like he made a great effort to throw the ball down.

As I said of Slama, two runs in a Feb. 28 game shouldn't matter much. But Hoey's going to get more chances to fail. That's partly for the velocity, partly for the investment.

---

No matter how hard a pitcher throws, a second pitch is valuable. Hoey's No.2 pitch is now a splitter, which intrigues me because the Twins have long downplayed/discouraged the pitch in their organization. They prefer to see their prospects learn the circle change, which is far less stressful on the forearm.

Before Carlos Silva's final season in Minnesota, he came to camp talking about his new split-fingered fastball. Within a couple of days, they were calling it a forkball, and by the time the season started, it was a change-up. I doubt anything about the pitch itself changed; I think they simply didn't want to have the minor leaguers saying, Hey, he's throwing it, let me try it.

Hoey's 28, and he's pretty close to make-it-or-break-it status, so I suspect they'll let him throw what he wants. But if somebody like Dakota Watts (a hard-throwing kid in their low minors) wants to add it, they'll probably resist.

The Duensing decision

Ron Gardenhire's declaration Wednesday that Brian Duensing would be in the starting rotation has implications not only for the beginning of ball games but for the makeup of the bullpen crew.

Brian Duensing: A
third starter determined.

Barring trade or disabling injury (one of which is completely in the control of management, the other largely out of their control), there was always going to be a putative starter shunted to the 'pen. We now know it will be a right-hander with little relief experience. I expect it to be Kevin Slowey, but even if it's Scott Baker or Nick Blackburn, the displaced starter is not likely to be fit into a short relief role.

This essentially forecloses the long man job for the bullpen candidates, and that probably hurts Jeff Manship most of all.

It also narrows the bullpen competition down to a second lefty and two middle relief spots, with at least one of those middle relief jobs going to a right-hander. It's possible for two of the trio of Scott Diamond, Dusty Hughes and Glen Perkins to win jobs, but not all three. 

The way the bullpen shapes up:

Closer: Joe Nathan

Set-up 1: Matt Capps

Primary LOOGY: Jose Mijares

Setup 2/Middle 1: open. (Pat Neshek, Jim Hoey, Anthony Slama ...)

Second lefty: open (Perkins, Hughes, Diamond)

Middle 2: open (the six above and more)

Long man: the displaced starter

Deciding now that Duensing will be in the rotation simplifies the bullpen decisions in this way: Gardenhire and Rick Anderson have just one puzzle to put together, not two.

And we'll resume our regularly scheduled bullpen candidate later today ...

On Brian Harper and catcher defense

As part of his annual offseason series of the 40 greatest Twins, Aaron Gleeman today has a post on Brian Harper, No. 25 on his list. Harper, for a generation of Twins fans too young to recall the 1991 World Series team, was the Minnesota catcher for a few years in the late 1980s and early 90s.

Brian Harper's Start-O-Matic card from the 1990 season,
when he hit .294. It was his lowest batting average in six
seasons with the Twins.

In discussing Harper's reputation as a poor defensive catcher, Gleeman focuses on Harper's caught stealing rate, which, as he points out, wasn't all that bad. He wasn't Pudge Rodriguez, but he wasn't Jorge Posada (circa 2010) throwing either.

But in truth, that was only part of the story. Harper's bad defense rap was largely because he was very poor at receiving pitches. He dropped a lot of balls that hit him in the mitt. Junior Ortiz was Scott Erickson's personal catcher because Harper simply couldn't handle Erickson's sinker.

On the other hand, when Harper and Laudner were splitting the job, Laudner caught the guys who didn't need help (mainly Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven), and Harper caught the rookies and projects. Tom Kelly trusted Harper's pitch calling more.

This is all part of why catcher defense is so difficult to quantify. All defense is, really, but catcher defense particularly so.

Morneau still not ready to play in games

Justin Morneau: Eight
months later, still not
completely symptom-free.

I guess I'm a bit surprised by this, but I'm not going to fret a whole lot about it either.

Better he play a week later than he might have than a week too soon. Or a month too soon, or whatever.

Bullpen candidate profile: Anthony Slama

Anthony Slama has
pitched in 194 minor
league games with a
1.95 ERA

Name: Anthony Slama
Throws: Right
Age: 27
Roster status: 40-man roster, two options remaining
Chances of making roster: Slim

Anthony Slama was a 39th-round draftee. He is generally described as having "average" stuff and his control record isn't good. He just gets outs -- or at least he has in the minors.

He's a test case for stat analysis of minor leaguers versus the traditionalist approach. The stats say he should have gotten a shot a couple years ago, much less now; the Twins, a bastion of traditional tools scouting, clearly doubt that his package of skills will translate in the majors.

Slama didn't do himself any favors on Monday when he gave up two runs on four hits and a walk. A bad outing on Feb. 28 shouldn't cripple his chances, but Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson have a lot of other possibilities to choose from.

He'll probably have to return to Rochester, get more outs there and wait for somebody with more impressive talent to fail or get hurt to get another call. It may not be fair, but it's reality.

Nathan's outing

Four batters, one walk, two fly ball outs and a grounder. 

Another step forward.

Bullpen candidate profile: Joe Nathan

 Joe Nathan's comeback
is one of the major
stories of this year's
Twins spring training.

Pitcher: Joe Nathan
Throws: Right
Age: 36
Roster status: 40-man roster; last year of contract
Chance of making team: Excellent

I assume everybody reading a Twins blog knows the backdrop on Joe Nathan: Four-time All-Star, missed last season for Tommy John surgery, no setbacks in recovery.

Nathan is scheduled to make his exhibition debut today, and the aforementioned backdrop will make today's tilt a rather high-profile game for March 1. (Slip Justin Morneau into the starting lineup too, and practically every baseball writer in Florida would feel compelled to be in Fort Myers -- not that Morneau will be deemed ready to play.)

One brief outing on March 1 isn't going to determine the trajectory of Nathan's season. But the Twins, and their fans, are understandably eager to see this next step in his return.

No matter the injury, there are two general areas of concern for a recovering pitcher: Command and velocity. Velocity is the easiest to measure with today's radar guns, and I expect that the gun reading will get prominence in the game stories.

I won't be concerned if Nathan's fastball is merely in the upper 80s today. He has a well-chronicled history of gaining velocity as spring training, and even the first month of the regular season, progresses. He's been clocked around 90 entering camp, which is normal for him.

No, today we should be looking at his command. Are the pitches going where he wants them to go? If he misses his spot, is the miss a hittable one over the plate, or an unhittable one well off the plate?