Notes, quotes and comment

Francisco Liriano wears a Negro Leagues throwback uniform
honoring the Homestead Grays during a recent start.

The Twins on Thursday released blogosphere idol Anthony Slama.

Anthony Slama is
29 and a free agent.

Slama put up dominant numbers at every stop in the minors (until this year, when he was awful), but the Twins never trusted his ability enough to give him a clean shot in the majors. They didn't see ERAs of 1.38 with 59 strikeouts in 39 innings; they saw mediocre velocity and mediocre command. They saw a pitcher who didn't get his outs on strikes, and they doubted that would work in the majors.

And -- not that seven innings is definitive proof of anything -- his limited opportunities in the majors matched the pessimistic view of his skills.

It should also be noted that Slama spent much, maybe most, of the 2011-12 seasons on the Triple A disabled list, which made it easier for the Twins to bypass him when looking for bullpen reinforcments. Why call up somebody who keeps getting hurt?

The Twins exposed Slama to the Rule 5 draft each of the past two offseasons, and nobody bit, suggesting that the Twins' take on him was matched by other organizations.

---

I'm rather surprised, given how many people seem to blame Ron Gardenhire/Rick Anderson for the Twins pitching woes, that this piece on Francisco Liriano's resurgence in Pittsburgh didn't get more play on my Twitter feed.

According to Howard Megdal, the Pirates pitching coach increased Liriano's hip turn early in his delivery. This supposedly both (a) improved his control and (b) increased the movement on his pitches.

Ray Searage, the Pittsbugh pitching coach, doesn't have the reputation or longevity of Anderson or Don Cooper, the White Sox pitching coach. But if he did indeed fix Liriano, he accomplished something the other two could not.

---

LaTroy Hawkins' next appearance will tie him with
Sparky Lyle for 24th on the all-time games pitched list.

Former Twin LaTroy Hawkins on Thursday made his 898th major league appearance, which ties him with former Twin Jim Kaat for 25th on the all-time games pitched list. Number 21 on the list: Eddie Guardado (908), who this weekend will be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame.

Hawkins is second among active pitchers, trailing only Mariano Rivera. Rivera is fourth on the all-time list and the leader among right-handed pitchers. No. 1 is (former Twin) Jesse Orosco (1,252), followed by Mike Stanton and John Franco.

The Hawk, 40, pitches now for the Mets, his tenth team in the majors. He's never been in one place for more than two years except with the Twins (nine seasons). Presumably he'll pitch as long as anyone will have him.

Notes, quotes and comment

Curtis Granderson fractured his right forearm on
this pitch by Toronto's J.A. Happ on Sunday.

Catching up on weekend developments:

*The wrangle over how to fit a baseball field into the coming Vikings stadium was resolved Friday. I had earlier cast doubt on the good faith of the football team in this issue, and even though the matter has been resolved to the satisfaction of the amateur baseball side, I can't help but think that it never should have become an issue of contention.

Anthony Slama has
been twice exposed
to the Rule 5 draft
and gone unclaimed.

*Yankees outfielder and former Mankato Masher Curtis Granderson broke his right forearm Sunday when hit by a pitch. The Grandy Man is to be out about 10 weeks, which would keep him out of action into May. The Yankees were tentatively shifting Granderson to left field and Brett Gardner to center; now there's little question that transition will take place. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees deal with the loss of their one power-hitting outfielder.

*I am frequently amused by the fervor with which certain online observers of the Twins campaign for Anthony Slama. Slama's appearance in Sunday's exhibition game was greeted with a predictable enthusiasm in my Twitter feed, but it didn't go well. It's not so much Slama's sour results (two-thirds of an inning, two hits, two walks, no strikeouts, three runs) as how he got there.  He had his usual lack of velocity and his usual lack of pitches in the strike zone. Only one of runs was earned, but the game sure slowed down when he entered. Yeah, it's early in spring training, but he merely confirmed the organization's skepticism of his skills.

* Two Peter Gammons tweets Sunday about the Twins:

"Ron Gardenhire has completely brought in on Mike Pelfrey"

"Twins think even though Eddie Rosario has a 70 arm he can be near star level as a second baseman, quickly after his Puerto Rican winter."

"70 arm" is a scouting grade that says, basically, that Rosario has a right fielder's arm. (The range scouts use is 20 at the bottom, 80 at the top— so 70 isn't top of the line, but it's well above average.) It's a confusing tweet by Gammons, because a strong arm is hardly a disqualification for second base, which is what the sentence implies. I think he's suggesting that Rosario throws too well to be "wasted" at second base, but that's the Twins plan. (The strong arm may wind up being a saving grace for other inadequacies at the position; it was Rosario's fielding error that resulted in the two unearned runs yielded by Slama.)

The September call-ups

The Twins on Monday completed their call-ups for the final month of the season, and the list is more noteworthy for who wasn't added to the active roster than for those who were.

Brian Dozier won't
be back in the bigs
this month.

They had brought up Esmerling Vasquez and P.J. Walters, starting pitchers, earlier in the weekend. (Vasquez started Sunday; Walters is to start Wednesday.) Monday's additions were infielder Eduardo Escobar (who was acquired from the White Sox in the Francisco Liriano trade) and reliever Luis Perdomo.

The Twins came into the month with three vacancies on their 40-man roster. Two of them were filled by Vasquez and Perdomo. One remains open. And that open slot means that the Twins could have activated one more player not currently on the 40 and chose not to.

It's not surprising, but still noteworthy, that Nick Blackburn and Tsuyoshi Nishioka weren't brought back — noteworthy because they will continue to get paid on their major league contracts without playing this month.

Shortstop Brian Dozier, shipped out a couple of weeks ago, won't be back; the Twins are giving a serious look at Pedro Florimon and Escobar instead.

Also excluded from the call ups: Double A outfielders Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks. Arcia is already on the 40; Hicks is not, but will be added this winter.

It appears the Twins skipped them because, like Dozier, they wouldn't get much playing time if they were called up. We can expect that Josh Willingham (lf), Ben Revere (cf) and Chris Parmelee (rf) will be the regular outfield the rest of the way, with Darin Mastroianni and Matt Carson in reserve (and maybe Denard Span returning from the DL after mid month).

I'm fine with giving Parmelee a month of regular outfield action — not only as an opportunity for him to show what he can do with regular at-bats, but as a chance to see how he fares defensively as an outfielder.

Anthony Slama's
major league career
adds up to seven innings.

More controversial, at least on Twitter, is the bypassing of Anthony Slama, who hand an ERA of 1.26 for Rochester (and had a lengthy stint on the disabled list). Slama struck out 56 batters in 35.2 innings.

Slama's minor league track record is impressive —in more than 324 career innings, his ERA is an even 2.00 — but his stuff is described as mediocre and he does walk people. The Twins don't take his stats seriously; they don't think he can get major league hitters to chase the way minor leaguers have.

Perdomo also has a history of not throwing strikes. But he has better fastball velocity than Slama. The Twins are more interested in Perdomo's velocity than in Slama's sleight of hand.


Slama was exposed to the Rule V draft last winter and went unclaimed, probably because he missed much of the second half of the season with an elbow problem. Assuming that he won't be added to the 40 this winter, it will be interesting to see if anybody else thinks it worth giving a shot to a guy who racks up good minor league ERAs with mediocre stuff.

Anthony Slama and the bullpen

Anthony Slama: An
ERA under a half-run
a game, and no major
league job.

The Monday print column discussed Anthony Slama's continued exile to the minor leagues despite absurdly good statistics.

On Monday afternoon, Slama added to those stats -- another inning of relief, three more strikeouts. He now has 36 Ks in 21.1 innings for Rochester.

Not that it will do him any good. The Twins have plenty of problems, but the bullpen isn't one of them.

Consider the individuals:

• Matt Capps may be one of the least popular Twins after yielding the game-losing homer on Saturday, but he is 10-for-11 in save opportunities. 
• Brian Duensing's ERA is 2.92.
• Alex Burnett's ERA is 2.84.
• Glen Perkins has 25 strikeouts in 20 innings.
• Jeff Gray, if one excludes a horrid 5-runs-in-0-innings outing in a game already out of control, would have an ERA of 2.17.
• Jared Burton had a streak of 34 outs without allowing a hit.
• Anthony Swarzak, in his relief outings, has held hitters to a .164 batting average. (He's been nowhere near as effective in his starts.)

That's the seven-man bullpen core. I don't see the man there who deserves to lose his job.

The pitching problems -- and there are plenty -- have been in the starting rotation, and even Slama's most fervent admirers aren't about to call for him to enter the rotation.

At some point, there will be a bullpen opening. That's the nature of pitching; people get hurt, people change roles, people get traded. Slama, even if one takes his remarkable minor league record at face value, is not suited to all bullpen roles; he's not, for example, qualified to be a LOOGY. The Twins recalled Jeff Manship this weekend to be an eighth reliever, because their perceived need was for a long man, and Slama is a ill fit for that job.

And even for the roles Slama could logically fill, he has serious competition: Deolis Guerra and Lester Oliveros are having fine seasons themselves, and unlike Slama, they are on the 40-man roster. Kyle Waldrop, who may well have made the roster out of spring training had he been healthy, is starting a rehab assignment.

As outstanding as Slama has been this year, it's perfectly plausible that the Twins would rather turn to one of those three if a bullpen opening arises. They get outs by throwing strikes. Slama does not.

Conspicuous by their absence

David Bromberg was
the Twins' minor league
pitcher of the year
in 2010.

One might think that 25 non-roster invites would pretty much cover everybody in the Twins organization worth considering, but there are two names not on the list released Tuesday worth noting: David Bromberg and Anthony Slama.

The two right-handers were in camp last spring -- both were then on the 40-man roster -- but had injuries during the season. They were removed from the 40 after the season and passed over during the Rule V draft.

And neither will be in major league camp this spring.

I wasn't surprised when the Twins moved them off the 40, and at least in Bromberg's case I didn't, and still don't, read into it a deeply diminished status for the player. I saw it, in both cases, as a calculated risk. The Twins gambled that other teams wouldn't claim either off waivers or Rule V because of their 2011 injuries, and they were right.

Bromberg, a starter, wasn't reckoned major-league ready entering camp last year, and certainly after a season lost to a fractured forearm (hit by a line drive) he wasn't going to be a serious candidate for the major league roster this spring either.

Anthony Slama has
walked seven men in
his seven major
league innings.

Slama, a reliever, is another matter. He was never as highly regarded (at least by the organization) as Bromberg -- his good minor league numbers written off as the fluky result of a delivery that wouldn't deceive major league hitters -- but by last spring he was as ready to pitch in the majors as he was ever going to be.

But the Twins had other options they liked better, and Slama started experiencing arm problems in spring training. He got a little big-league time in the summer, but was shut down by August with elbow woes. He avoided surgery, but lost his 40-man roster spot. He's been pitching winter ball in Mexico, and reportedly doing well, but ... the Twins still didn't see fit to invite him to camp.

Slama has three seasons of Triple A ball on his record, and an ERA with Rochester of 2.59, but the Twins don't trust his stuff or his command. If they're not going to look at him this spring, with as many holes as they have in the bullpen, they never will.

Tinkering with the edges of the 40-man roster

The Twins on Friday announced that four players — outfielder Jason Repko, catcher Rene Rivera, pitcher Anthony Slama and infielder Matt Tolbert — had been outrighted to Triple-A Rochester and thus removed from the 40-man major league roster.

The four are all low-ceiling players and out of options. The move also indicates that the Twins don't see them as likely to make the 25-man roster coming out of spring training, which is interesting since two of them (Repko and Tolbert) did in 2011.

Let's read between the lines on each player and try to decipher what their demotion tells us about the Twins' plans for 2012:

Jason Repko hit
.226/.270/.286.

Repko: Had he remained on the 40, he'd have been arbitration eligible, and thus in line for a substantial raise. That wasn't going to happen.

Beyond the finances, Repko's value is diminished by the rise of Ben Revere and Rene Tosoni. Repko isn't needed as a backup center fielder. Tosoni is a better hitter — and a left-handed hitter, something managers tend to value in a fourth (or fifth) outfielder.

We don't know how the Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel free agencies will play out, but right now we can assume that the Twins will break camp with Revere and Denard Span as outfield regulars, Tosoni as a reserve, and a veteran holding down right field while Joe Benson gets a year in Triple A.

Rene Rivera hit
.144/.211/.202.

Rivera: Drew Butera stays, Rivera goes. Both are catch-and-throw guys; neither can hit. On a team whose regular catcher starts 130-plus games, either is an acceptable backup; you don't want them catching 100-plus games.

So how do you pick between the two? I believe Butera still has options. I rather expect the Twins to look this winter for a No. 2 catcher who offers something at the plate, in which case Butera goes to Rochester and waits for an injury.

Slama: His minor league numbers have always been better than his scouting reports. The Twins clearly don't think his stuff and command will work in the majors. Plus he had some arm issues in 2010.

He may not have gotten a clean shake from the Twins — seven major league innings is hardly enough to prove that what worked for him in the minors won't work in the bigs — but life isn't always fair.

Matt Tolbert hit
.198/.252./.266.

Tolbert: A victim of the numbers game. The Twins know they have to revamp their middle infield. They have an investment in Tsuyoshi Nishioka; Alexi Casilla was the best of a bad lot; Trevor Plouffe still intrigues somebody with his bat. Plus there's Brian Dozier, their minor league player of the year, who ought to get a good look during spring training.

That's four holdovers, plus the likelihood that the Twins will import somebody from the outside.

Like Repko, Tolbert is arbitration eligible; again, there's no way the Twins were going to give him a big raise.

Elbow room

Kyle Gibson slid in the
2009 draft because of
a stress fracture in his
forearm. Now he has
a partially torn ligament.

Scott Baker. Kyle Gibson. Anthony Slama.

Three right-handed pitchers, three elbow injuries, and — at least for now — three rehab projects without surgery.

All three are said to have strained flexor muscles in the right elbow. Gibson also has ligament damage.

I'm not orthopedic surgeon, but given the description of Gibson's injury in particular — a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament — I'm not optimistic that rehab is going to be the solution. It depends, as I understand such things, on where in the ligament the tear is (and now big the tear is). The ligament is at its thickest closest to the muscle, and has a better chance of holding together there.

I know that Nolan Ryan pitched for years with a partial tear in the ligament, and that Andy Pettitte was described for years as a potential Tommy John candidate. Neither ever went through the ligament replacement surgery. But most pitchers who have a partial tear wind up having the surgery.

Timing matters. If Gibson has the surgery soon, he'll miss the 2012 season but should be at full speed for 2013. If he spends the winter trying to rehab the injury only to get to spring training and find that it didn't work, he'll still miss 2012, and (like Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan) probably won't be ready to roll at the start of 2013.

Kevin Slowey returns
to the starting rotation.

I understand the reluctance to have the surgery. But it sure seems that the Twins often take the conservative rehab approach only to find weeks or months later that surgery was needed after all.

---

Baker's spot in the rotation will be filled by Kevin Slowey, not Anthony Swarzak. This is absolutely the right choice. While Swarzak has done well as a spot starter-long reliever, his strikeout rate remains down in the Nick Blackburn/Carl Pavano range — too low.

Even setting aside the whole issue of Slowey's inability/unwillingness to work out of the bullpen, the records of both men say Slowey's the better starter.

And even if the Twins would prefer not to have Slowey be part of their future, they're still going to be better off if he rebuilds trade value — and returning him to the rotation is a step in that direction.

Bullpen candidate profile: Anthony Slama

Anthony Slama has
pitched in 194 minor
league games with a
1.95 ERA

Name: Anthony Slama
Throws: Right
Age: 27
Roster status: 40-man roster, two options remaining
Chances of making roster: Slim

Anthony Slama was a 39th-round draftee. He is generally described as having "average" stuff and his control record isn't good. He just gets outs -- or at least he has in the minors.

He's a test case for stat analysis of minor leaguers versus the traditionalist approach. The stats say he should have gotten a shot a couple years ago, much less now; the Twins, a bastion of traditional tools scouting, clearly doubt that his package of skills will translate in the majors.

Slama didn't do himself any favors on Monday when he gave up two runs on four hits and a walk. A bad outing on Feb. 28 shouldn't cripple his chances, but Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson have a lot of other possibilities to choose from.

He'll probably have to return to Rochester, get more outs there and wait for somebody with more impressive talent to fail or get hurt to get another call. It may not be fair, but it's reality.

A rough draft of the 2011 bullpen

In today's game, calling somebody a "relief pitcher" is akin to calling somebody an infielder. A shortstop is not a first baseman is not a second baseman is not a third baseman, and a lefty specialist (or LOOGY)  is not a closer is not a long man.

So ... let's examine 10 of the various candidates on hand for the Twins bullpen, identify their established roles and ask ourselves what role they can reasonably be expected to fill in 2011. The Bill James Handbook lists seven roles -- closer, set-up, lefty specialist, middle reliever, long man and utility reliever (generally an inexperienced guy who pitches as needed while trying to work into a better role) plus emergency relievers (starting pitchers or position players pressed into relief duty). I'll use the book's determinations.

Joe Nathan: 246 saves with the Twins.

Joe Nathan (injured; closer): The significant questions begin at the very foundation of the bullpen. Nobody knows in the dead of winter what form Nathan's return from ligament replacement surgery will take. Anything is possible, from a Billy Wagner-style complete and immediate return to excellence to a Darren Dreifort-style immediate reinjury.

But Nathan will be paid $12 million next season, and he wants to earn it and the Twins want him to earn it. I expect him to open the season with a significant role; he may pitch his way out of it, but he'll get a clear shot at retaining the ninth inning job. It may well be that he won't be used on consecutive days.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer to open the season.

Matt Capps (closer): He had 42 saves last season (split between Washington and Minnesota). In the Twins perfect 2011, he's the top set-up man; things seldom work perfectly.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer/primary set-up.

Jose Mijares (LOOGY): When the rotund Venezuelan debuted late in 2008, he was awesome. In the past two seasons he has twice reported to camp out of shape, been optioned to the minors, spent time on the disabled list, moved at least one teammate to the verge of violence and convinced Ron Gardenhire that he can't be trusted against right-handed hitters.

The tools are there to be better. The makeup may not be.

The Outsider's verdict: LOOGY, but if he's matured he could move into a set-up role.

Jim Hoey (minors): Big fastball, questionable control. If he throws strikes, he'll climb the ladder in the 'pen rapidly.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility; he's the best bet for the Greg McMichael Rule to come into play (if you get outs, they'll find a job for you).

Pat Neshek's Twins ERAs:
2.19, 2.94, 4.73. 5.00

Alex Burnett: (utility): Miscast last season in multi-inning stints because that's where the team had its need. His minor league success has come in shorter stints.

The Outsider's verdict: Middle relief.

Pat Neshek (utility): The key is his velocity. If he's in the low 90s, as before his TJ surgery, he's a set-up candidate; if he's in the low-to-mid 80s as he was last year, he cannot pitch in the majors.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility and pitches his way up or out.

Glen Perkins (LOOGY): He's been primarily a starter, but the Twins are now looking at him as a relief pitcher. His track record against lefty hitters is not good. He needs a good breaking ball to do the job, and the idea seems to be that his slider will do the trick. We'll see.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Scott Diamond (minors): The Rule 5 pick either sticks or returns to the Atlanta Braves. He's been a starter, but some prospect gurus see him as an effective lefty specialist. Probably competing with Perkins for a job, but there's room for both on the roster if Mijares moves up the ladder.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Anthony Slama (utility): Good minor league numbers, but his command is uncertain and his stuff doesn't impress scouts. The Twins have not been eager to give him a shot.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility reliever if he makes the team.

Jeff Manship (utility): I don't know why he's not listed as a long man, but he's not. He's probably Plan B for the rotation as of now, meaning he's the guy who'd get the first shot if /when one of the starting rotation guys goes down; that status is likely to fall to Kyle Gibson later in the year. Pitched better with the Twins last season than in Rochester.

The Outsider's verdict: Long man if he makes the team.

That's 10. There are other possibilities, like Carlos Gutierrez and Rob Delaney, but these are the 10 most likely guys right now for the (probably) seven bullpen jobs. There are a lot of open jobs, and just as many questions here. Good organizations can find answers to those questions. And that's the challenge -- maybe the challenge for 2011 --  for the Twins.

How I see it as of today:

Nathan (closer)
Capps (set-up/second closer)
Mijares (LOOGY)
Burnett (middle)
Hoey (utility)
Diamond (utility)
Neshek (utility)

Perkins and other pieces of the pitching puzzle

Glen Perkins — he of the 18-11, 4.73 career mark (one good, the other bad) — is apparently going to get the ball for one of the games this week in Chicago. Kevin Slowey reports some soreness in the back of his elbow, so it's time to go to Plan C — Plan B, Brian Duensing in the rotation, being already in effect.

Perkins' Triple-A numbers this year are not impressive -- 4-9, 6.08 -- but he's been getting better results of late, or so we are told.

I was initally surprised that it's Perkins getting the callup. I would have expected Jeff Manship or even former Plan A Nick Blackburn to be Plan C, with Perkins no higher than Plan D. For one thing, Perkins is so close to arbitration eligibility that merely recalling him damages his trade value.

But then I started working though the roster. And it started to make sense.

This appears to be the idea: Alexi Casilla is supposedly not going to miss a lot of time with his newly bum ankle. To activate Orlando Hudson on Sunday, the Twins sent down Anthony Slama, who, in his brief stint in the majors, pitched more like the guy scouts were leery of than the guy who dominated minor league hitters. (Moral: A funky delivery and mediocre stuff only goes so far without command.) So Trevor Plouffe remains on the roster as an infield reserve.

Off day today. Scott Baker pitches Tuesday. Assuming Casilla is ready to go by Wednesday, Plouffe returns to the minors and Perkins is recalled for the start. Then he moves to the bullpen to be the long man/third lefty, with Slowey returning to his rotation spot without going on the disabled list.

Lots of moving pieces in that scenario, which depends upon accurate prognoses on Casilla and Slowey. But in the end, Perkins would be recalled up not to be in the rotation, but for what he offers the bullpen.

The end of the road for Jamie Moyer?

Jamie Moyer may not be the worst regular starting pitcher in the National League -- five other qualifiers have worse ERAs -- but he's in the running.

Plus he's 47. And now his elbow hurts.

Even if he can avoid ligament replacement surgery -- and I suspect that would be in the offing for a 27-year-old pitcher with this injury, as incomplete as the diagnosis may be -- it's bound to be difficult for him to continue pitching.

His has been an odd, even unique, career. I wrote a column earlier this year marveling at his longevity.

As he said in the piece linked to above, if this is it, he's had a great career.

---

Nice job tonight by Brian Duensing, not so nice from Anthony Slama. I know I'm more skeptical about Slama than a lot of people, but the notion espoused earlier this week by Tom Powers of the Pioneer Press that Slama will soon be closing is just silly.

Momentum, starting pitchers and Slama time

Silence any babble about momentum after Sunday's comeback. Inertia was the ruling force Monday, with Scott Baker's season continuing in the direction it's been taking — down.

The only encouraging thing from his outing was the post-game report that his elbow was not sore. But he certainly didn't pitch well — 13 baserunners and 14 outs.

Still, his leash has to be longer than Nick Blackburn's, and probably longer than Kevin Slowey's. Slowey starts today. If he gets shelled again, he's probably just as much at risk of being pulled from the rotation as Blackburn is, and I really hope that Blackburn doesn't start Friday at Baltimore.

But there's only one Brian Duensing on the roster. If Duensing takes Blackburn's place, does Jeff Manship take Slowey's? Glen Perkins has been reportedly pitching better in Triple A Rochester in recent outings, but his ERA is still north of 7 — and almost any callup will make him arbitration eligible, so the Twins have a real financial incentive not to bring him to the majors unless and until they're sure he's going to stick.

Plans B and C for the rotation are in the major league bullpen. If Ron Gardenhire waits another week to move Manship into the rotation, he's going to encounter the same "stretch him out" issue with Manship that he has with Duensing. I'm sure he'd rather fix Blackburn and Slowey, but that seems increasingly unlikely.

---

Alex Burnett, who earlier this season was pitching his way into a key bullpen role, has now pitched his way off the roster. His ERA, which a month ago was under 2.5, has risen to 4.39, so it's not any surprise.

Anthony Slama (pictured), long a favorite of the blogosphere, got the call. Slama has been successful in the minors, at least by such traditional measures as ERA, but the Twins have not treated him as a true prospect. Two issues: He doesn't throw hard, and he walks people.

I'm a skeptic.

The blogger talks back

A commenter on the Mahay post asks: Any thoughts on why the Twins seem unwilling to give Anthony Slama much of an opportunity to duplicate his AAA success?

I see three "issues" with putting Slama (photo left) on the 25-man roster.

First, his "AAA success" is limited — less than 16 innings. More important, his walk rates in the upper minors (Double A and Triple A) are higher than the Twins will accept (more than 4 walks per nine innings). (See his stats here.)

Second, Slama's stuff isn't overwhelming. Baseball America's 2010 Prospect Handbook grades his fastball and slider as average pitches.

A two-pitch pitcher with average stuff, uncertain control and limited experience in Triple A isn't knocking down the door.

Third, he's more of what the Twins have: A right-handed short reliever — and moreover, one whose success appears to be based in part on an odd delivery, comparable to Pat Neshek. Like Neshek, he's vulnerable to left-handed hitters. So he's redundant.

That said, he gets ground balls and strikeouts. (See the next item for more on those virtues.) He is, unlike most minor league relief pitchers, a bona fide prospect. I doubt he'll make the roster in April, unless there are more injuries in the 'pen, but he's got a real chance to come up later in the year, and especially in 2011.

A commenter on the Guerrier-Guardado comparison post asks: How much do strikeouts really matter to a closer, particularly one who will always enter at the beginning of the ninth inning?

Answer: A lot, because it matters to all pitchers.

Keeping it simple: The three true outcomes for a pitcher are walks (bad), home runs (bad) and strikeouts (good). Over time, for almost any pitcher, the batting average on balls in play is going to be around .320. The more strikeouts, the fewer balls in play, hence the fewer hits.

This is why power pitchers are a better bet than finesse pitchers, and why ground ball pitchers are better bets than fly ball pitchers. Power pitchers get strikeouts; finesse pitchers don't. Fly ball pitchers give up more home runs than ground ball pitchers. A ground ball pitcher who gets lots of strikeouts — Pedro Martinez in his prime — is ideal.

The two things I want to know about any pitcher are his K/9 rate and his BB/K ratio. I call those the leading indicator stats; they tell us how his stuff plays against hitters and how well he commands it.