Winter Meetings, Day Three: Rumors and rumors of rumors

For a brief while Wednesday, it sounded as if the Twins had landed Ervin Santana. Then the New York writer who had sounded that alarm backed off, and things died down.

For the record, as I have no real objection to signing Santana in and of itself . I do object -- strenously -- to the continued accumulation of veteran arms for the apparent purpose of keeping guys like Alex Meyer and Trevor May in the minors.

Sign Santana? How about getting rid of Mike Pelfrey first? Ryan has said this week that Pelfrey is coming to camp as a starter "and we'll go from there." We know where we're going from there. The veteran will have his squatter's rights on a rotation job, and they won't pull the plug on him until mid-May. That's the established pattern.

I won't trust the Twins to make the right call on Pelfrey until he's gone.

---

The Twins reportedly made a pitch to Francisco Liriano, but the lefty re-signed with Pittsburgh. Can't blame him. There's a comfort level there. He's had success there.

Ditto Pat Neshek, who signed with Houston. Supposedly the Twins were looking to bring him back, but the separation between him and the Twins was ugly enough that I would think he'd be reluctant to return.

----

Rule 5 draft this morning. That might wind up being the highlight for the Twins at this winter meetings. Considering some of the free agents they've been linked to (Kyle Kendrick?), that might not be a bad thing. Doing nothing is preferable to signing Kendrick.

Perkins and Neshek

Glen Perkins and Kurt Suzuki have done this a few times
this season, but this celebration was for the All-Star Game.

Two native Minnesotans, both of whom came up to the Twins in 2006.

Pat Neshek had the more immediate success. Then he got hurt, had a falling out with the organization, was waived, bounced from franchise to franchise, suffered a horrible family tragedy, and now, suddenly, has re-emerged as a bullpen force. He was named to the NL All-Star team ... and took the loss Tuesday night.

Glen Perkins, who had a bit role in 2006, claimed a spot in the starting rotation in 2008. By 2009 he had pitched his way out of the rotation. By 2010 he was in the organizational doghouse and barely topped 20 major league innings. A lot of us expected him to go the way of Neshek, discarded as more hassle than he was worth.

Instead, he patched things up with the front office, embraced a bullpen role, was pretty much the one bright spot to the 2011 season, and now is the closer and a two-time All-Star. And on Tuesday, he got to close out the American League's win in his home park.

Two native Minnesotans, two All-Star bullpenners, two different travels from the same crossroads.

Two old friends in the playoffs

Pat Neshek pitched Saturday against the Detroit Tigers,
getting a groundout and a strikeout from his two batters.
The patch on his throwing shoulder reads "GJN," the
initials of his son, who was born Tuesday and died Wednesday.

Pat Neshek and Lew Ford aren't stars and aren't regulars. Neither spent the whole season in the majors.

But both ex-Twins are in the playoffs, and considering the trajectories of their careers, that's impressive. And in Neshek's case, maybe a bit more.

I noted on the blog last week that Neshek's wife gave birth Tuesday to their son, Gehrig, and that the baby died less than 24 hours later, with no explanation.

When the A's released their roster Friday for the Divisional Series against Detroit, Neshek was on it. And when the series opened, Neshek pitched — two batters, two outs. Like the rest of his teammates, he was wearing a reminder of his loss. And he wore it well, pitching from his fog of grief.

Neshek had — I'm shifting here strictly to pitching — a good if rather baffling season in 2012, reviving a career that appeared moribund. The Twins, you'll recall, waived him in spring training 2011, even though he had an option left; the move suggested that the team had little expectation that he could return to his form of 2006-07.

The Padres picked him up, and he walked 22 men in 25 major league innings. They released him after the season, and the Orioles signed him. He put up decent numbers in Triple A, but the O's sold him to Oakland in early August rather than use him themselves. And Neshek played a bit role in the bullpen depth of an exceedingly young A's team. A bit role, but an effective one: 24 games, 19.2 innings, 1.37 ERA.

Russell Martin, the Yankees catcher, makes sure
Lew Ford touches the plate as the former Twin scores
a third-inning run  Sunday night.

Neshek's 32; Ford is 36. Neshek had been ineffective since 2007; Ford's been out of the majors since 2007. Last year Ford was reduced to playing in an independent league.

That's stubborn.

Ford was called up in late July. He never got his batting average above .205, but he stuck.

And on Sunday he was in the starting lineup for Baltimore. In Game One of the ALDS, he and his .183/.256/.352 slash line started against CC Sabathia. And he doubled, singled and scored a run. Of course he did.

From triumph to tragedy

I was trying to get my head around the Oakland A's surprise division title last night when the sad word came from.A's (and former Twins) reliever Pat Neshek via Twitter:

Please pray for my family. Tonight my wife & I lost our first & only son 23 hours after he was born with no explanation.

Neshek's wife, Stephanee, had earlier tweeted this photo of Gehrig John Neshek and called the child their "playoff baby."

There is, apparently, no cause of death. What a hellish development.

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Other trades of 2011

Jose Morales hit .297
in his three partial
seasons with the Twins.

When: Dec. 16, 2010
What: The Twins sent catcher Jose Morales to Colorado for left-handed pitcher Paul Bargas
Value: Bargas not only hasn't reached the majors, he didn't pitch at all in 2011 because of a brain tumor. Morales opened the season as the Rockies' No. 2 catcher but had only 71 plate appearances (-0.1 WAR, 1 win share). He was nontendered this offseason and signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Twins motivation: Open a spot on the 40-man roster

The Twins traded Morales because they needed roster space to re-sign Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, because he was out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors, and because they had decided they prefered Drew Butera's defensive chops to Morales' batting average.

Bargas reported to camp with an obvious health problem and was quickly found to have a brain tumor. Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune earlier this month wrote about Bargas, who expects to be in camp this spring. (As a sign of how much I like the piece, I link to it despite the Strib's paywall). I don't know enough about Bargas' talent to be optimistic about his future as a pitcher, but I sure will root for him. (Update: Fixed the link.)

When: Jan. 26, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Dusty Hughes off waivers from the Kansas City Royals
Value: Hughes was awful with the Twins (9.95 ERA in 12.2 innings; -0.4 WAR, 0 win shares)
Twins motivation: What I call Craig Monroe Syndrome: He had gotten Twins lefties out while with K.C., and the Twins took this as an indication of his talent.

I still remember seeing one particularly wicked breaking ball Hughes threw in a spring training game to freeze Carl Crawford; that single pitch had me briefly convinced he was a shrewd pickup (and a silly discard by the Royals). He didn't throw enough such pitches, however.

He was outrighted in May. He has signed a minor league contract with Atlanta.

Rob Delaney wasn't
even deemed worthy
of a draft pick as an
amateur player

When: Jan. 28, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Rob Delaney on waivers to Tampa Bay
Value: Delaney made four appearances for the Rays with an ERA of 10.80; no win shares and -0.2 WAR
Twins motivation: Created a spot on the 40-man roster for Hughes.

Delaney, like Anthony Slama, put up good numbers in the minors for the Twins, but the Twins were unwilling to give him a real chance in the majors. The Rays designated Delaney for assignment in September to open a spot for phenom Matt Moore; it's unclear to me if Delaney is still in their system or if he's a free agent he signed this month with Miami.

When: March 20, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Pat Neshek on waivers to San Diego
Value: Neshek worked 24.2 innings for the Padres with an ERA of 4.01; more tellingly, he walked 22 (and struck out 20) in those 24.2 innings. He had 1 win share and 0.0 WAR.
Twins motivation: They wanted to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

It was significant that the Twins dumped Neshek even though he still had an option left; that indicates that the organization either had concluded that he was unlikely to regain his pre-injury effectiveness and/or didn't want him around.

He was up and down with the Padres, and he is currently a free agent.

When: Aug. 25, 2011
What: Lost designated hitter Jim Thome on waivers to Cleveland
Value: He had 13 win shares total for the season, 0.5 WAR with the Indians.
Twins motivation: Cleared his salary off the books for the last six weeks or so of the season, gave him a chance to be at least in the fringes of a pennant race and an opportunity to make amends with the fans of his first major league team.

Jim Thome pretended
to play third base for
one pitch against the
Twins in a September
game.

Big name, exceedingly minor deal. It was originally announced as a player-to-be-named trade, but once it was obvious that the Indians weren't making the postseason they changed it to straight cash and not much of it.

Thome has signed with Philadelphia for 2012, and the Phillies are making noises about playing him at first base on occasion. Good luck with that.

When: Sept. 27, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Esmerling Vasquez off waivers from Arizona
Value: The Twins did not add him to the active roster for the final week of the season.
Twins motivation: He's a power arm bullpen possibility.

The Diamondbacks needed to clear space on their 40-man roster, and lopped Vasquez, who has pitched in 141 major league games for the D'backs (137 innings, 80 walks, 120 strikeouts). Good arm, uncertain control. The Twins are collecting a bunch of this kind of arm and hoping one of them can figure it out.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Jeff Gray off waivers from Seattle.
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Twins motivation: Another bullpen option.

I'm including this transaction and the following one with the 2011 season because they came just before Bill Smith was removed from the general manager's job, and they ought to be included.

Gray is a knock-around reliever who has been in the majors with Oakland, the Cubs, the White Sox and Seattle. I'm not particularly enthused about him, and would expect that Vasquez and Lester Oliveros (and others) are ahead of him on the totem pole, but Gray is on the 40-man roster, so he's got a chance to make the team this spring.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Matt Maloney off waivers from Cincinnati
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Motivation: Provides some depth for the starting rotation.

Maloney hasn't established himself as a major leaguer, and his stuff isn't all that impressive, but he's put up good numbers in Triple A. Maybe he's what's derisively known as a Quadruple A pitcher, but I suspect he'd be an improvement over Nick Blackburn if given a shot. Of course, Blackburn has two more years and some $10 million left on his contract, so he's got dibs on the rotation berth.

COPOP III: Life after Neshek

To hear the Twins tell it, space on the 40-man roster was behind the decision to waive Pat Neshek.

Ron Gardenhire, quoted in the Star Tribune story:

"We need roster spots. That's why we were trying to clear one. We could have put [Neshek] back on if we needed. But we needed to [clear a] roster spot to have one available if we keep one of these guys who aren't on the roster."

Kyle Waldrop may
be the biggest
beneficiary of the
Neshek move.

One of these guys being Kyle Waldrop or (less likely) Carlos Gutierrez. The only problem with that rationalization is the math. As I explained in the previous post, any scenario that involves putting a non-roster guy such as Waldrop on the 25-man roster means either waiving Glen Perkins (out of options) or offering Scott Diamond (Rule V) back to Atlanta. Now, maybe there's a deal lined up that involves sending the Braves a non-roster player in exchange for their claim on Diamond, in which case, yeah, they needed a roster spot.That's certainly possible -- but if it's not the case, the public explanation for the move is really a way to avoid saying of Neshek: He's not what he was, and he's not going to be.

But the roster spot explanation casts a light on the Twins apparent thinking about the bullpen. It hints strongly that Waldrop is likely to land a berth. And LaVelle Neal said in his blog Sunday that Dusty Hughes (who had another scoreless inning Sunday) is "pretty much a lock."

So let's update COPOP (Current Outsider Projected Opening Pen):

Closer: Joe Nathan
Setup 1: Matt Capps
Lefty 1: Jose Mijares
Setup 2/Middle relief 1: Waldrop
Lefty2: Hughes
MR2: Perkins
Long Man: Kevin Slowey

This leaves Jeff Manship on the outside looking in. He could get the nod over Perkins, but I just can't see the Twins throwing Perkins away.

Fare-thee-well, Pat Neshek

Pat Neshek: Go
West, young man.

One more bullpen candidate gone: Pat Neshek, native Minnesotan and fan favorite, was waived by the Twins and claimed by the San Diego Padres.

The Twins put Neshek on waivers Friday, which was the day after he allowed two home runs to right-handed hitters. That probably popped his bubble with the Twins; getting righties out is supposed to be his calling card.

This, of course, eliminates a bullpen contender. It also opens a spot on the 40-man roster, which provides an opening for someone like Kyle Waldrop.

Addendum: Just to be clear— the Twins don't have to immediately fill that slot, and probably won't until they must.

If Waldrop makes the 25-man roster, it will almost certainly mean that at least one of Glen Perkins and Scott Diamond didn't — and if either of them don't, they'll be coming off the 40.

And there are roster flexibility advantages to having less than 40 men on the roster. Example: The Twins now have two catchers on the 40 (Joe Mauer and Drew Butera). Should either go on the 15-day disabled list, the Twins would have to move one of their minor league catchers to the 40 in order to put him on the 25-man active roster. Having an open slot makes that easy.

Addendum II: Neshek, according to the Pioneer Press, had an option left (contrary to what John Gordon said during Sunday's game broadcast). That the Twins opted to waive Neshek rather than option him out to Triple A is telling.

COPOP: Neshek and Manship

Jeff Manship: A long
man, or something
more?

The biggest question remaining for the Twins 2011 bullpen is: Who is going to be the guy called upon to get a tough right-handed hitter out in the seventh inning?

The ninth figures to belong to Joe Nathan, the eighth to Matt Capps. (Or they can be reversed.) Jose Mijares is the top lefty-killer. But who gets the role Jesse Crain commanded so well in the second half of 2010?

There wasn't a lot of encouragement in Thursday's results. Jeff Manship started the game, went two innings, allowed a run. Joe Christensen's gamer trotted out the Matt Guerrier comp for Manship, which would seem to bode well -- until one recalls that it took Guerrier a couple of years to earn a prominent role in the Twins 'pen. Manship's not there yet.

Pat Neshek had a rough
outing Thursday.

Pat Neshek's the guy I've been projecting for that role, and certainly he was superb in it in 2006-07. But he gave up a pair of home runs Thursday, both to right-handers (Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn). That's a big ugly.

Christensen's piece has Ron Gardenhire saying the displaced starter is not necessarily going to be limited to long relief: "Whoever it is, I'm going to use him in a lot of big situations." Color me skeptical of the notion that either Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker are in line for the job. This is a sprinter's job; Baker and Slowey have a starter's mindset.

Here's COPOP -- Current Outsider Projected Opening Pen:

Cl: Nathan

S1: Capps

L1: Mijares

S2/MR1: Baker

L2: Hughes

MR2: Perkins

LM: Manship

This one takes seriously the notion of the displaced starter called on for big outs; if that's the idea, Baker's probably the better fit. Manship gets the long man's role and both Dusty Hughes and Glen Perkins win jobs.

A trade's more likely.

Bullpen candidate profile: Pat Neshek

Pat Neshek's fastball
was stuck in the mid-80s
in 2010.

Pitcher: Pat Neshek
Throws: Right
Age: 30
Roster status: 40-man roster; at least one option left out of options one option left (note to self: Don't trust John Gordon's take on such things).

Chance of making team: He'd have to pitch his way off the roster.

It's rather startling to realize how long it's been since Pat Neshek was an effective major league reliever -- 2007.

It's testimony to how devastating his quirky sidearm delivery was on right-handers in his first 90 or so games that he is generally reckoned to be a favorite to make the 25-man roster.

But his recovery from Tommy John surgery has not been as smooth as that of Joe Nathan. When I saw him pitch in September in Target Field against the Kansas City Royals, he had nothing. His fastball was in the mid 80s, and that's not enough velocity.

A good rule of thumb with him: If his fastball is around 90 mph, he'll be effective. Around 85, not.

He had a very good inning Wednesday against Pittsburgh -- two weak groundball outs from left-handed hitters followed by a strikeout of a right-handed hitter.

That's a positive, although hardly decisive. More important to me will be what the radar guns tell us near the end of camp.

A rough draft of the 2011 bullpen

In today's game, calling somebody a "relief pitcher" is akin to calling somebody an infielder. A shortstop is not a first baseman is not a second baseman is not a third baseman, and a lefty specialist (or LOOGY)  is not a closer is not a long man.

So ... let's examine 10 of the various candidates on hand for the Twins bullpen, identify their established roles and ask ourselves what role they can reasonably be expected to fill in 2011. The Bill James Handbook lists seven roles -- closer, set-up, lefty specialist, middle reliever, long man and utility reliever (generally an inexperienced guy who pitches as needed while trying to work into a better role) plus emergency relievers (starting pitchers or position players pressed into relief duty). I'll use the book's determinations.

Joe Nathan: 246 saves with the Twins.

Joe Nathan (injured; closer): The significant questions begin at the very foundation of the bullpen. Nobody knows in the dead of winter what form Nathan's return from ligament replacement surgery will take. Anything is possible, from a Billy Wagner-style complete and immediate return to excellence to a Darren Dreifort-style immediate reinjury.

But Nathan will be paid $12 million next season, and he wants to earn it and the Twins want him to earn it. I expect him to open the season with a significant role; he may pitch his way out of it, but he'll get a clear shot at retaining the ninth inning job. It may well be that he won't be used on consecutive days.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer to open the season.

Matt Capps (closer): He had 42 saves last season (split between Washington and Minnesota). In the Twins perfect 2011, he's the top set-up man; things seldom work perfectly.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer/primary set-up.

Jose Mijares (LOOGY): When the rotund Venezuelan debuted late in 2008, he was awesome. In the past two seasons he has twice reported to camp out of shape, been optioned to the minors, spent time on the disabled list, moved at least one teammate to the verge of violence and convinced Ron Gardenhire that he can't be trusted against right-handed hitters.

The tools are there to be better. The makeup may not be.

The Outsider's verdict: LOOGY, but if he's matured he could move into a set-up role.

Jim Hoey (minors): Big fastball, questionable control. If he throws strikes, he'll climb the ladder in the 'pen rapidly.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility; he's the best bet for the Greg McMichael Rule to come into play (if you get outs, they'll find a job for you).

Pat Neshek's Twins ERAs:
2.19, 2.94, 4.73. 5.00

Alex Burnett: (utility): Miscast last season in multi-inning stints because that's where the team had its need. His minor league success has come in shorter stints.

The Outsider's verdict: Middle relief.

Pat Neshek (utility): The key is his velocity. If he's in the low 90s, as before his TJ surgery, he's a set-up candidate; if he's in the low-to-mid 80s as he was last year, he cannot pitch in the majors.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility and pitches his way up or out.

Glen Perkins (LOOGY): He's been primarily a starter, but the Twins are now looking at him as a relief pitcher. His track record against lefty hitters is not good. He needs a good breaking ball to do the job, and the idea seems to be that his slider will do the trick. We'll see.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Scott Diamond (minors): The Rule 5 pick either sticks or returns to the Atlanta Braves. He's been a starter, but some prospect gurus see him as an effective lefty specialist. Probably competing with Perkins for a job, but there's room for both on the roster if Mijares moves up the ladder.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Anthony Slama (utility): Good minor league numbers, but his command is uncertain and his stuff doesn't impress scouts. The Twins have not been eager to give him a shot.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility reliever if he makes the team.

Jeff Manship (utility): I don't know why he's not listed as a long man, but he's not. He's probably Plan B for the rotation as of now, meaning he's the guy who'd get the first shot if /when one of the starting rotation guys goes down; that status is likely to fall to Kyle Gibson later in the year. Pitched better with the Twins last season than in Rochester.

The Outsider's verdict: Long man if he makes the team.

That's 10. There are other possibilities, like Carlos Gutierrez and Rob Delaney, but these are the 10 most likely guys right now for the (probably) seven bullpen jobs. There are a lot of open jobs, and just as many questions here. Good organizations can find answers to those questions. And that's the challenge -- maybe the challenge for 2011 --  for the Twins.

How I see it as of today:

Nathan (closer)
Capps (set-up/second closer)
Mijares (LOOGY)
Burnett (middle)
Hoey (utility)
Diamond (utility)
Neshek (utility)

Interpreting the Neshek and Repko contracts

Generally, when arbitration-eligible players sign contracts just before the tender deadline, it indicates that

• They were candidates to be dropped by their team; and
• They weren't sure they would land 40-man roster spots elsewhere.

Things aren't necessarily
looking up for Pat Neshek

Thus the Twins' Pat Neshek and Jason Repko, who each inked one-year deals for less than $700,000 on Thursday.

Repko is a first-rate defensive outfielder, but he's a reserve outfielder because he has shown little evidence that he can hit. And, remember, he only got to the active roster last season because Justin Morneau's concussion moved Michael Cuddyer from the outfield to first base and left the Twins without a fourth outfielder.

Assume that Morneau is indeed sound next season and that the Twins sign a part-time DH (whether it be Jim Thome or, as Seth Stohs suggested on Friday, Matt Diaz, non-tendered by Atlanta). Further assume that the Twins carry their usual 12-man pitching staff.  The four-man bench may not have room for Repko, as it didn't last spring:

• Extra hitter (Thome/Jason Kubel/Cuddyer/Delmon Young)
• Backup catcher (Drew Butera)
• Utililty infielder (Alexi Casilla/Matt Tolbert)
• ??

If the Twins figure, as they did last spring, that Cuddyer is an acceptable fill-in in center, that fourth slot might go to another infielder. If they sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka and keep J.J. Hardy, they may well keep both Casilla and Tolbert, who is out of options.

There is, on the other hand, an obvious opportunity for Neshek. The Twins middle relief corps must be rebuilt; there is no way they will retain all four of their prominent relief free agents (Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes).

But Neshek did not pitch well in his first season back from ligament-replacement surgery, not in the majors and not in Triple-A. His velocity was not at its accustomed level when I saw him pitch in September.

This contract suggests to me that the Twins aren't confident he's going to help them this year either -- but neither are they ready to cut bait.

Revere, Neshek and a pennant race

The Twins' win Tuesday night mathematically eliminated the Kansas City Royals. That just made official what was known all season, of course.

Beyond the obvious implications in the Twins' drive for the divisional crown — now up 4.5 games on the White Sox — there were two things about the game that stood out to me.

1) Ben Revere made his first appearance. He pinch hit in the eighth inning for Denard Span and finished out the blowout win in center field.

Pat Neshek gets the last out on a pop-up:
Finally, a strike and an out.

Not an overwhelming debut. He struck out on four pitches — the last a breaking ball that appeared be well off the plate — and had just one routine chance in the field.

Revere was called up (and Matt Fox jerked from the major league roster) to provide speed and outfield defense off the bench in this final month, but Ron Gardenhire had bypassed opportunities to use him in those roles in close games. I assume Gardy was waiting for a low-press spot to get Revere's feet wet and that now the manager will begin to use him.

If not, what's the point of bringing him up?

2) Pat Neshek struggled in his mop-up chores of the ninth inning. It wasn't just that he walked two and gave up a hit and a meaningless run. Nor even that he barely threw more strikes than balls (13/12).

It's that nothing registered above 86 mph on the Target Field radar gun, and most of what he threw was 81 or 83 mph.

Before his injury and Tommy John surgery, Neshek threw in the low 90s. That velocity wasn't there earlier this season, and it wasn't there last night. Unless and until it returns, his career is in jeopardy. Certainly he's not in position to be a postseason factor this year.

Into the bullpen

Some curious moves, or non-moves, Saturday by Ron Gardenhire with his bullpen crew.

Going at it in chronological order:

* He pulled starter Jeff Manship after six innings and 86 pitches. Maybe a bit hasty, but it was a one-run game at that point, and Manship hasn't exactly established himself.

* Brian Duensing pitched the seventh, throwing just 10 pitches. And that was it for him for the night. Which, in retrospect, is curious because later — after the game had gone into extra innings — Dick Bremer talked about how Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson mentioned that they don't have a long man in the bullpen. Duensing should be the long man, but he has been used as a short man — in fact, that's probably why Manship got the start. Duensing isn't the rotation's Plan B now. Manship is.

My point being: If they want a long man, it would have made sense to stretch Duensing out a bit more and give him the eighth inning.

* Instead, they went with Matt Guerrier, and he blew up after getting two outs. Three hits, two runs, tied game. The big blows came from left-handed hitters, this with LOOGY Ron Mahay available.

It is rare for one of the Twins set up guys to start an inning, give up runs, and still finish the inning. Almost all the middle relief meltdowns I chronicle here involve three or four relievers, none of whom can get the first guy out. This blown lead was a reversal of Gardy's SOP.

* Mahay got the ball to open the ninth, but after three batters, one hit and two outs, he gave way to ... not Pat Neshek, not Jesse Crain, but Alex Burnett, the rookie who has been limited to low-leverage situations.

Crain had pitched the day before and, according to Bremer, did some more throwing on the side earlier Saturday, so it's not surprising that Gardenhire/Anderson wanted to hold him out. But choosing Burnett over Neshek suggests that Neshek slid down the totem pole with his lousy outing on Wednesday.

*Burnett got a long leash. He threw 36 pitches and ultimately took the loss, and only 12 of the 36 pitches were strikes (He had two intentional walks, but even if those eight pitches are ignored it's still 16 balls to 12 strikes). It took a big-time throw from Denard Span and catch-block-tag at the plate by Drew Butera (photo above) to keep the Tribe off the board in the 10th, and Burnett didn't get an out in the 11th.

* Crain pitched after all. Closer Jon Rauch warmed up in the eighth; Neshek didn't even do that much.

For the game, the Minnesota bullpen worked 4.2 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and four walks. The only one who truly pitched well was Duensing.

Wins are wins, but ...

When I first contemplated the Twins schedule, one of the first things I noticed — after "when do they have their first home game?" — was the rigor of the initial series.

Four games in Anaheim. Three games in Chicago. Then home to face the Red Sox. Three tough opponents and a ridiculous travel schedule, with that late West Coast game on Thursday forcing an overnight flight to Chicago.

I figured 5-5 would be acceptable for that 10-game stretch; 6-4 or 7-3 would make me almost giddy.

They're 5-1 now.

Now, the "even keel" approach to the long season holds that such streaks come and go. You're never as good as you look during a winning streak, never as bad as you look when on a losing streak.

And in the interest of tamping down giddiness — mine, at least, but maybe yours as well — a few things to keep an eye on.

Pat Neshek. Ron Gardenhire voiced concern near the end of spring training about using Neshek on consecutive days. Maybe we saw why this week.

Thursday: Neshek enters in the sixth inning with two on with a 3-1 lead. He faces two men, falls behind each 1-0, gets each on the second pitch. Stressful situation, few pitches.

Friday: Neshek enters a tied game in the seventh to start the inning. He got two called strikes, then two fouls — and then the batter, Alexei Ramirez, lashed a double down the third base line. Gardenhire pulled him immediately.

Francisco Liriano. Five walks in six innings is nobody's idea of command of the fastball.

Jon Rauch. Yes, he's four-for-four in save conversions. Remember LaTroy Hawkins' season (2001) as closer? He opened with a long string of converted saves but really wasn't pitching that well. He finished the season with 28 saves, 9 blown saves and an ERA pushing 6.

Rauch has gotten the job done — a win's a win, an out's an out — but he's been helped by a busted hit-and-run in one game, saved by sparkling defensive plays in two others.

These are all small sample sizes. But they provide some reason to discount the Twins' .833 winning percentage — itself evidence of small sample size. Nobody's that good.

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Poll results: A sizable plurality of the 45 respondents predict Kevin Slowey will lead the Twins in win this year. Slowey had 18 votes (40 percent). Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn had nine each (20 percent), Liriano 5 (11 percent) and Carl Pavano 4 (8 percent.)

Late night: Twins 10, Angels 1

Game story here

Box score here

The power is most definitely on.

Two-run homer for Brendan Harris. Three-run shot by Jim Thome. Three-run bomb from Delmon Young (pictured).

And a game that was a close 3-1 Twins lead after seven ends as a 10-1 romp.

You gotta love FSN. Young had entered the game the inning before as a defensive sub for Jason Kubel. As he rounded the bases after his ninth-inning dinger, FSN's graphic identified him as Kubel. It's really kind of difficult to confuse the two, but ... they're up to the challenge.

Kevin Slowey wasn't real effective Thursday— he allowed nine baserunners in 5.1 innings — but a parade of relievers allowed just one more baserunner in the final 11 outs.

Most impressive, or perhaps merely the most important, was the perfect seventh authored by Jose Mijares, who retired Erick Aybar, Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter, two of them on strikes. Seventeen pitches for Mijares, 14 of them strikes.

Not sure what to make of Pat Neshek's outing. He faced two men, threw ball one to each, then got an outfield fly and a ground out to strand two inherited runners. Four pitches, two outs, but — and I admit I'm probably being overly picky — it just didn't bolster my confidence in him.

The first fake game

The Red Sox beat the Twins Thursday evening in Fort Myers, but the result isn't important.

What is important, in descending order:

• Kevin Slowey pitched two scoreless innings and displayed his customary control in dispatching the Bostons, and
• Pat Neshek (above) sailed through his one inning of work.
  

Both righties are coming off injuries, and Slowey's language in discussing his wrist earlier this week had some fearing that the two screws inserted in the joint might damage his greatest skill.

It was just one outing, but those fears can be set aside — at least until he has a rough outing.