Ex-Twins watch: Jeff Manship

You probably know that only one former Twins player is active for the two World Series team, that being Cleveland reliever Jeff Manship.

Manship was a 16th round pick out of Notre Dame and spent parts of four seasons on the Twins roster (2009-2012), He never worked as many as 35 innings in any season for Minnesota, and his best ERA was 5.28. He was probably most noticed for a game he worked with his name misspelled on the back of his jersey. 

He then bounced through Colorado and Philadelphia without making an impact before landing with Cleveland.

And something has clicked for him with the Tribe. His 2015 ERA was an astounding 0.95 (39 innings). His ERA this year, a still-solid 3.12. His secondary numbers are full of red flags, and he's certainly not one of Terry Francona's high leverage arms, but his ERAs by team are ... interesting.

• Minnesota: 6.20
• Colorado: 7.04
• Philadelphia: 6.65
• Cleveland: 2.07

One of these is not like the others.

Further thoughts on the Liriano trade

Francisco Liriano and
pitching coach Rick Anderson
in 2011.

My Monday print column on the Francisco Liriano trade of Saturday night can be found here. It's short, deliberately so; it was a tight sports section, and between Vikings training camp and the Olympics, there was plenty of other things to fit into the limited space.

So I'll expound further here.

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The wonders of social media reveals that a vocal number of Twins fans believe the Twins didn't get enough for Liriano. They expected more than a couple of Grade C minor leaguers.

Chalk this reaction up to what I think of as "Dick Bremer Disease" — the tendency many, if not all, of us have of taking a player's best short-term performance and holding that as the yardstick of his talent.

I saddle Bremer with the name, perhaps unfairly, because back in 2002, Torii Hunter hit .371 in the first month of the season, and Bremer latched onto that performance as a legitimate measure of Hunter's ability. It took years before Bremer stopped talking about Hunter as a guy who could hit for a high average.

Hunter wasn't a legitimate .300 hitter, of course. He just had a particularly good month.

Twins fans latched onto Liriano's periodic strong stretches and held those times to be who he is. About a half season of 2006; the last two months of 2008; most of 2010; his recent stretch of good starts this year. All told, a bit more than two seasons worth of quality pitching.

Two seasons — over a seven-year period.

Yes, Liriano was brilliant in 2006 until he got hurt. That isn't how the rest of baseball sees him, because he has too many other stretches in which he was awful, injured or both.

We may value Liriano as the wunderkind of '06. The rest of the world doesn't.

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You may have seen elsewhere that Baseball America this winter ranked Eduardo Escobar, the shortstop the Twins got in Saturday's trade, as the White Sox' No. 10 prospect. The value of that ranking is somewhat diminished by the fact that BA regarded the Sox system as the weakest in the game.

Pedro Hernandez wasn't to be found the BA rankings for the Sox, but that's because he was included in the San Diego system; he came to the White Sox in the Carlos Quintin trade in late December. He was No. 23 on the Padres list.

Hernandez, as I indicated in the print column, is the acquisition I have the most hope for. The scouting reports I've seen on him say he has command, he has a quality change, and he has gained velocity in the past couple of years, from 87 mph or so to 90-92 mph.

Jeff Manship was
6-2, 2.35 in
Rochester this year.

What isn't clear is the quality of his breaking ball, and whether he can develop a usable one may determine his future as a major league pitcher.

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Escobar and Hernandez are now on the Twins' 40-man roster; they cleared a spot by putting P.J. Walters on the 60-day disabled list, as they did last week with Carl Pavano. Walters last pitched on June 13, so he can't be reactived until sometime in mid-August — and as far as I know he won't be ready before then anyway. 

Jeff Manship got the call to replace Liriano on the 25-man roster. He may get to start; while Brian Duensing had a successful outing Sunday filling in for Liriano, the Indians are particularly vulnerable to lefties. It will be interesting to see which way Ron Gardenhire goes with this one.

A lost life, a lost game, a lost job

Worse things happened in the Twins organization the past 24 hours or so than Wednesday's game, although that was plenty bad.

I refer to the death of Paul Bargas, the left-handed pitcher the Twins acquired from Colorado in exchange for Jose Morales after the 2010 season. Bargas never threw a pitch for the Minnesota organization; he was found during spring training 2011 to have a brain tumor. There was talk last winter that he was ready to try to play again, but ... it didn't happen. He was 23.

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The highlight, or lowlight, of
Jeff Manship's tenure this time around
was the day he pitched with the name
on his jersey misspelled.

Jeff Manship pitched one inning Wednesday, giving up three runs. This pushed his ERA up to 10.27, and the Twins optioned him back to Rochester and called up Kyle Waldrop.

I thought Waldrop was likely to make the team during spring training, but he strained his right elbow in the final week or so and spent quite a while on the disabled list. He had a 1.29 ERA in Rochester (14.3 innings) since returning, but that comes with suspect walk and strikeout rates (five walks, five K's).

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Leading up to Wednesday's nooner, Cory Provus, after talking about White Sox starter Chris Sale, told us that Twins starter Nick Blackburn "is also throwing the ball well."

This was a rather bizarre claim, considering that Blackburn's ERA entering the game was 7.45 and he had just one quality start in his 11 outings. Blackburn's 4-4 record had more to do with run support and bullpen help than his work. (And things didn't improve Wednesday.)

Provus has been a sizable upgrade on John Gordon. But talking up Blackburn's season just erodes credibility.

COPOP: Neshek and Manship

Jeff Manship: A long
man, or something
more?

The biggest question remaining for the Twins 2011 bullpen is: Who is going to be the guy called upon to get a tough right-handed hitter out in the seventh inning?

The ninth figures to belong to Joe Nathan, the eighth to Matt Capps. (Or they can be reversed.) Jose Mijares is the top lefty-killer. But who gets the role Jesse Crain commanded so well in the second half of 2010?

There wasn't a lot of encouragement in Thursday's results. Jeff Manship started the game, went two innings, allowed a run. Joe Christensen's gamer trotted out the Matt Guerrier comp for Manship, which would seem to bode well -- until one recalls that it took Guerrier a couple of years to earn a prominent role in the Twins 'pen. Manship's not there yet.

Pat Neshek had a rough
outing Thursday.

Pat Neshek's the guy I've been projecting for that role, and certainly he was superb in it in 2006-07. But he gave up a pair of home runs Thursday, both to right-handers (Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Raburn). That's a big ugly.

Christensen's piece has Ron Gardenhire saying the displaced starter is not necessarily going to be limited to long relief: "Whoever it is, I'm going to use him in a lot of big situations." Color me skeptical of the notion that either Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker are in line for the job. This is a sprinter's job; Baker and Slowey have a starter's mindset.

Here's COPOP -- Current Outsider Projected Opening Pen:

Cl: Nathan

S1: Capps

L1: Mijares

S2/MR1: Baker

L2: Hughes

MR2: Perkins

LM: Manship

This one takes seriously the notion of the displaced starter called on for big outs; if that's the idea, Baker's probably the better fit. Manship gets the long man's role and both Dusty Hughes and Glen Perkins win jobs.

A trade's more likely.

Bullpen candidate profile: Jeff Manship

Jeff Manship has has a 3-2 record
in  more than 60 innings
 for the Twins the past two seasons.

Pitcher: Jeff Manship
Throws: Right
Age: 26
Roster status: 40-man roster; at least one option left
Chance of making team: Moderate

In the stretch drive of the 2009 season, Jeff Manship was the Twins No. 5 starter. He made five starts in September-October, only twice completing five innings and only once allowing fewer than three runs. The Twins still managed to win four of the five starts, so Manship filled the most minimal requirement of a fifth starter -- he kept the team in games.

But it's pretty clear that he has no real future with the Twins as a starting pitcher. There are six starters already on the major league roster ahead of him, a couple of first-round picks (Kyle Gibson and Alex Wimmers) rocketing up from behind, and a few others on roughly his level of current skill with more room to grow.

In their current situation, he's not only not Plan B should injuries strike the rotation, he may not be Plan C -- or even Plan D. If he's going to carve out a role for himself on the Twins as anything more than an emergency starter, it's going to be as a reliever.

The Twins appear to see parallels between Manship and the departed Matt Guerrier. Guerrier was a fairly accomplished minor league starter with a good command of a varied repertoire, but his fastball was a tick slow. The Twins made him a reliever, which bumped his velocity up a notch, and he went from long man to middle man to primary set-up man over his Twins tenure.

Manship, says Ron Gardenhire, "can spin it." This is Gardy-speak for "he's got a breaking ball." He throws strikes and has been durable.

If they go with a right-hander as the long man, Manship may well be the choice. But there are a couple of lefties in the mix for that role, and one of the six starters might wind up with that job.

A rough draft of the 2011 bullpen

In today's game, calling somebody a "relief pitcher" is akin to calling somebody an infielder. A shortstop is not a first baseman is not a second baseman is not a third baseman, and a lefty specialist (or LOOGY)  is not a closer is not a long man.

So ... let's examine 10 of the various candidates on hand for the Twins bullpen, identify their established roles and ask ourselves what role they can reasonably be expected to fill in 2011. The Bill James Handbook lists seven roles -- closer, set-up, lefty specialist, middle reliever, long man and utility reliever (generally an inexperienced guy who pitches as needed while trying to work into a better role) plus emergency relievers (starting pitchers or position players pressed into relief duty). I'll use the book's determinations.

Joe Nathan: 246 saves with the Twins.

Joe Nathan (injured; closer): The significant questions begin at the very foundation of the bullpen. Nobody knows in the dead of winter what form Nathan's return from ligament replacement surgery will take. Anything is possible, from a Billy Wagner-style complete and immediate return to excellence to a Darren Dreifort-style immediate reinjury.

But Nathan will be paid $12 million next season, and he wants to earn it and the Twins want him to earn it. I expect him to open the season with a significant role; he may pitch his way out of it, but he'll get a clear shot at retaining the ninth inning job. It may well be that he won't be used on consecutive days.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer to open the season.

Matt Capps (closer): He had 42 saves last season (split between Washington and Minnesota). In the Twins perfect 2011, he's the top set-up man; things seldom work perfectly.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer/primary set-up.

Jose Mijares (LOOGY): When the rotund Venezuelan debuted late in 2008, he was awesome. In the past two seasons he has twice reported to camp out of shape, been optioned to the minors, spent time on the disabled list, moved at least one teammate to the verge of violence and convinced Ron Gardenhire that he can't be trusted against right-handed hitters.

The tools are there to be better. The makeup may not be.

The Outsider's verdict: LOOGY, but if he's matured he could move into a set-up role.

Jim Hoey (minors): Big fastball, questionable control. If he throws strikes, he'll climb the ladder in the 'pen rapidly.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility; he's the best bet for the Greg McMichael Rule to come into play (if you get outs, they'll find a job for you).

Pat Neshek's Twins ERAs:
2.19, 2.94, 4.73. 5.00

Alex Burnett: (utility): Miscast last season in multi-inning stints because that's where the team had its need. His minor league success has come in shorter stints.

The Outsider's verdict: Middle relief.

Pat Neshek (utility): The key is his velocity. If he's in the low 90s, as before his TJ surgery, he's a set-up candidate; if he's in the low-to-mid 80s as he was last year, he cannot pitch in the majors.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility and pitches his way up or out.

Glen Perkins (LOOGY): He's been primarily a starter, but the Twins are now looking at him as a relief pitcher. His track record against lefty hitters is not good. He needs a good breaking ball to do the job, and the idea seems to be that his slider will do the trick. We'll see.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Scott Diamond (minors): The Rule 5 pick either sticks or returns to the Atlanta Braves. He's been a starter, but some prospect gurus see him as an effective lefty specialist. Probably competing with Perkins for a job, but there's room for both on the roster if Mijares moves up the ladder.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Anthony Slama (utility): Good minor league numbers, but his command is uncertain and his stuff doesn't impress scouts. The Twins have not been eager to give him a shot.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility reliever if he makes the team.

Jeff Manship (utility): I don't know why he's not listed as a long man, but he's not. He's probably Plan B for the rotation as of now, meaning he's the guy who'd get the first shot if /when one of the starting rotation guys goes down; that status is likely to fall to Kyle Gibson later in the year. Pitched better with the Twins last season than in Rochester.

The Outsider's verdict: Long man if he makes the team.

That's 10. There are other possibilities, like Carlos Gutierrez and Rob Delaney, but these are the 10 most likely guys right now for the (probably) seven bullpen jobs. There are a lot of open jobs, and just as many questions here. Good organizations can find answers to those questions. And that's the challenge -- maybe the challenge for 2011 --  for the Twins.

How I see it as of today:

Nathan (closer)
Capps (set-up/second closer)
Mijares (LOOGY)
Burnett (middle)
Hoey (utility)
Diamond (utility)
Neshek (utility)

Because 12 pitchers just aren't enough

The Twins shipped Matt Tolbert back to Triple A after the Toronto series and brought back Jeff Manship (photo left), who started as many games in his brief earlier tenure with the big club as Tolbert did during his time up.

This gives the Twins 13 pitchers, which is more than they really ought to have, but they had two short starts against the Blue Jays (five innings from Kevin Slowey, four innings from the Bad Carl Pavano) and were headed into Fenway Park, which is a graveyard for depleted bullpens.

And it's not like Tolbert was playing a vital role anyway.

This 13-pitcher crew won't last long; I don't know exactly when J.J. Hardy will be ready to play, but he's eligible to come off the disabled list now. When he's back, a pitcher will leave.

My guess is it will be Manship; my guess is that they're not ready to pull the plug on Jesse Crain. And I would hope that if they DO pull the plug on Crain that they'll fill his space with a bona fide relief pitcher -- Kyle Waldrop or Anthony Slama.

Manship, remember, is the rotation's Plan B now that Brian Duensing is pitching short relief. They need to keep him stretched out.

The final weekend

The Twins obviously have no margin for error. They also have no good option to start tonight, and they face Zach Grienke on Saturday.

Apparently Jeff Manship (right) starts tonight, Manship and a cast of thousands. I figured after Liriano's disaster last Sunday that Manship would get the call, but ... I suspect he can become a useful major league starter someday, but that day is not here.

As I understand it, the matchups for the final series:

Friday

Kansas City at Minnesota: DiNardo (0-2, 7.52) vs. Manship (0-1, 5.81). Wow, a matchup that might favor Manship.

Chicago at Detroit: Peavy (2-0, 2.25) vs. Jackson (13-8, 3.38). Peavy's numbers are AL only. Jackson's August ERA was 4.45; his September ERA, 5.08. He's shot way past his career high in innings, and things are falling apart for him.

Saturday

Kansas City at Minnesota: Greinke (16-8, 2.06) vs. Blackburn (11-11, 4.08). Greinke is the unanimous pick for AL Cy Young in the poll. Blackburn will be working on three days rest for the first time in his brief career. He's 1 1/3 innings short of 200.

Chicago at Detroit: Garcia (2-4, 4.78) vs. Figaro (2-1, 5.74). The Tigers are holding back Rick Porcello after the 20-year-old threw 111 pitches against the Twins. Garcia's stats don't look like much, but he's impressed the Sox enough that he's penciled into their 2010 rotation.

Sunday

Kansas City at Minnesota: Hochevar (7-12, 6.24) vs. Duensing (5-2, 3.69). Hochevar is either brilliant or awful. Duensing is coming off the worst start of his brief career. It's possible the Twins would use Carl Pavano on three days rest instead if this game means something.

Chicago at Detroit: Danks (13-10, 3.69) vs Verlander (18-9, 3.45). The Tigers really don't want Verlander pitching Sunday. They'd rather save him to open against the Yankees.

Here's the Detroit Free Press' take on the matchups on the Tigers end of things. I think Michael Cuddyer's right on the Sox pitchers — these are the best the Twins could hope for.

The odds are definitely against the Twins, but these matchups suggest it's not impossible.

What next for Liriano?

The tragic number is six headed into the Motown Showdown, and it's pretty clear what Minnesota needs out of that four-game series: A sweep.

If the Tigers win three (or four) of the four games, they clinch. A 2-2 split leaves the Twins two games out with three to play — and one of those three will be against Zach Grienke. Even a 3-1 series win only pulls the Twins into a tie with Detroit.

At least the Twins won't have to deploy their fifth starter in that series. Francisco Liriano got the call Sunday and displayed the same basic problem he displayed for most of the season: No command of the fastball.

Five outs, four baserunners, three runs — a three-run homer to Yunisesky Betancourt, which might be excusable if the man could actually hit — and just 24 strikes in his 45 pitches.

A quick hook, and deservedly so.

Not that Jeff Manship was a while lot better in his long-relief outing at throwing strikes — 66 pitches, 32 of them balls. But Manship at least got 11 outs and only allowed one run.

It ws, in fact, a very un-Twins like day on the hill; Bobby Keppel threw nine balls in his 19 pitches. Of the four guys who pitched Sunday for Minnesota, only Jesse Crain pounded the strike zone.

Assuming that Friday's game — the next, and final, time this spot in the rotation cycles around — matters, who should Ron Gardenhire call on?

He can't, right now, have any faith in either Liriano or Manship. But they remain the best options; Gardy sure isn't giving another start to Armando Gabino. Pick one, pull him fast, and make it a bullpen game.

My choice would be Manship. But I'm not in the clubhouse, and I'm not looking in their eyes to see who's afraid to fail. One danger is putting an "unready" prospect in a key game is the long-term damage a bad game can do to his psyche.

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Meanwhile, out in Chicago the White Sox

a) beat the Tigers and

b) still didn't get to watch football.

Taking the fifth

La Velle Neal suggests in the game story from Tuesday that Jeff Manship may be bounced from the rotation before Sunday's start against Kansas City and Zach Grienke.

It could be Francisco Liriano (right). Or Armando Gabino. For that matter, the Twins might still be able to pluck somebody off waivers and toss him into the fray. He wouldn't be eligible for the playoffs, but he might help get there.

Certainly the in-house options right now aren't particularly impressive. Whoever takes the ball for the first pitch on Sunday isn't a good bet to be around for the fifth inning, much less the seventh.

Away back in 1987, Tom Kelly finagled his "rotation" through September — Bert Blyleven and Frank Viola in regular rotation, and he pieced things together in between. Steve Carlton got three starts in the last five weeks or so — the washed-up future Hall of Famer was pitted against Teddy Higuera, Jack Morris and Bret Saberhagen, arguably the three best pitchers in the American League that season. TK's thinking: The Twins weren't likely to score a lot of runs in those games, so he'd see if Lefty had one more big game left — and if not, he wasn't wasting a bullet.

But TK was playing with a lead. Ron Gardenhire's playing catch-up. He can't afford to concede Sunday's game.

Neal dismisses immediately the notion of a four-man rotation for the last two weeks of the season. It would be an un-Twins-like thing to do; this organization believes strongly in protecting its pitchers. Plus, Carl Pavano is not exactly Iron Man McGinnity; there's a limit to how far he can be pushed.

But the prospect of two bullpen starts against Grienke in the last eight days of the season is daunting. Gardenhire has to find the idea of shortening his rotation for the last 11 games tempting.

Who needs Rich Harden, part II

Tragic number after Tuesday's game: 10. Tigers and Twins both won.

At the end of July there was a great deal of speculation that the Twins were about to make a waiver deal for Rich Harden. The trade did not come to fruition, and — if you care to put credence in the public statements of Jim Hendry, the Cubs general manager — never was seriously considered.

The rotation spot that would have gone to Harden is being filled now by Jeff Manship (above).

Manship has now made four starts and has lived up to the public evaluations of the Twins management — he's not ready to pitch in the majors, but he's the best available option right now. He went five innings in his first start, and hasn't gone that deep since. On Tuesday, he got all of seven outs, giving up five hits and four runs.

And yet, the Twins are 3-1 in Manship's starts.

That's a credit not to Manship, whose ERA as a starter is now 6.89, but to the lineup and the bullpen. Harden, by the way, has pitched all of 12 innings this month. At last word, he may start again in the final week, or he may not. He is not, and should not be expected to be, an innings eater. Which is relevant because the only damage Manship can be argued to have done to the Twins divisional chances is straining the bullpen.

If the Twins fail to win this divisional title — and the odds are against them — the decision not to deal for Rich Harden is not to blame.

Addendum: Manship is scheduled to start Sunday in Kansas City. His likely mound opponent: Zach Grienke, who is only the best pitcher in the league. It figures to be a tough matchup for any of the starters.

Sunday morning comin' down

Tragic number entering Sunday: 16. Twins lose, Tigers lose. Stop me if you've heard this before.

The Twins entered Saturday 12th in the 14-team American league in starter's ERA (4.84); 11th in innings pitched by starters; and 10th in strikeouts. Decidedly below average.

One strong point: They were (and still are) first in fewest walks allowed.

So how'd they lose Saturday? The starter (Jeff Manship, right) walked the first two batters in the fifth inning; they both came around to score.

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Poll results: One the question of who should be in the Twins rotation next season, we had 15 respondents. Eight (53 percent) said Brian Duensing; five (33 percent) said Francisco Liriano; one each (6 percent) said Carl Pavano and Glen Perkins; zero opted for Manship, Anthony Swarzak or none of the above.

I have to figure the Perkins vote came from a diehard Minnesota chauvinist, bound to take the Stillwater native against the out-of-staters. Either that or a White Sox fan.

New poll up.

Who needs Rich Harden?

Had the Twins traded for Rich Harden, as was much imagined/desired/dreamed of during the weekend, he would have started Tuesday's game against the White Sox, not Jeff Manship.

Had Harden pitched Tuesday against the White Sox as he did on Monday against the Houston Astros — five innings, five runs allowed — the Twins probably lose that game.

Manship only went five innings too, but he had an excuse; he's been pitching garbage relief since he got called up from Triple A Rochester almost three weeks ago. He didn't get the "W," but the Twins did, and he darn well ought to get another start. Five innings of one-run ball was everything the Twins could have hoped for.

And four runs better than Harden did the night before for the Cubbies.

This is not to say that Manship is better than Harden. It is to say that sample size matters, and when you're only dealing with five or six starts — or one start — there's no guarantee that reputation and established ability will win out.

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Jose Morales — No. 58 in the celebration photo above — is the second Jose Morales to be a reserve catcher/pinch hitter for the Twins.

The first one was a favorite of Gene Mauch, both in Montreal and then in Minnesota, and was a catcher in name only. What he really was was a specialist, a right-handed bat who could come off the bench cold and hit line drives. He appeared in 733 games in 12 seasons, 1973-84; 486 of them were as a pinch hitter and 265 others were as a DH.

As a pinch hitter, Jose Morales 1.0 hit .276; his 123 career pinch hits is eighth all-time.

Now we have Jose Morales 2.0. This one's a switch hitter, and a more reliable defensive catcher than 1.0 (which isn't saying a whole lot). He has been shuttled between Minnesota and Rochester, and has now four pinch hits in 10 tries.

None of them bigger than Tuesday night's game winner. Kid can hit.

The player to be named is named Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey, one of the pitchers the twins got in Johan Santana trade, is headed to Arizona as part of the Jon Rauch trade.

Judging from the above statement from the Twins, there's cash flowing in both directions as well, but that's probably a technicality. The trade was Rauch for Mulvey, and I'm fine with that. Happier with that than I was with Carl Pavano for Yohan Pino, because Rauch will be around next season.

Mulvey hadn't developed the way I, and I assume the Twins, expected he would when they got him. Here are his pro ball numbers. Note the slight regression while repeating Triple A this year. Almost exactly the same innings, but more walks, fewer strikeouts and a worse ERA. He certainly didn't improve.

Which is why it's Jeff Manship (above) getting the start today against the White Sox. It's not that the Twins expect Manship to be great; by all accounts, they think he's up too soon. But the Twins clearly had come to regard him as a better option than Mulvey.

The trade of Mulvey, coupled with the fact that Phil Humber has been dropped from the 40-man roster twice this season, breaks the direct take from the Santana trade down to Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra, although the Twins now have Rauch as a spinoff. Guerra has at least had a decent bounce-back season after a rough 2008 — note the vastly improved walk and strikeout rates.