Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Other trades of 2011

Jose Morales hit .297
in his three partial
seasons with the Twins.

When: Dec. 16, 2010
What: The Twins sent catcher Jose Morales to Colorado for left-handed pitcher Paul Bargas
Value: Bargas not only hasn't reached the majors, he didn't pitch at all in 2011 because of a brain tumor. Morales opened the season as the Rockies' No. 2 catcher but had only 71 plate appearances (-0.1 WAR, 1 win share). He was nontendered this offseason and signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Twins motivation: Open a spot on the 40-man roster

The Twins traded Morales because they needed roster space to re-sign Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, because he was out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors, and because they had decided they prefered Drew Butera's defensive chops to Morales' batting average.

Bargas reported to camp with an obvious health problem and was quickly found to have a brain tumor. Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune earlier this month wrote about Bargas, who expects to be in camp this spring. (As a sign of how much I like the piece, I link to it despite the Strib's paywall). I don't know enough about Bargas' talent to be optimistic about his future as a pitcher, but I sure will root for him. (Update: Fixed the link.)

When: Jan. 26, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Dusty Hughes off waivers from the Kansas City Royals
Value: Hughes was awful with the Twins (9.95 ERA in 12.2 innings; -0.4 WAR, 0 win shares)
Twins motivation: What I call Craig Monroe Syndrome: He had gotten Twins lefties out while with K.C., and the Twins took this as an indication of his talent.

I still remember seeing one particularly wicked breaking ball Hughes threw in a spring training game to freeze Carl Crawford; that single pitch had me briefly convinced he was a shrewd pickup (and a silly discard by the Royals). He didn't throw enough such pitches, however.

He was outrighted in May. He has signed a minor league contract with Atlanta.

Rob Delaney wasn't
even deemed worthy
of a draft pick as an
amateur player

When: Jan. 28, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Rob Delaney on waivers to Tampa Bay
Value: Delaney made four appearances for the Rays with an ERA of 10.80; no win shares and -0.2 WAR
Twins motivation: Created a spot on the 40-man roster for Hughes.

Delaney, like Anthony Slama, put up good numbers in the minors for the Twins, but the Twins were unwilling to give him a real chance in the majors. The Rays designated Delaney for assignment in September to open a spot for phenom Matt Moore; it's unclear to me if Delaney is still in their system or if he's a free agent he signed this month with Miami.

When: March 20, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Pat Neshek on waivers to San Diego
Value: Neshek worked 24.2 innings for the Padres with an ERA of 4.01; more tellingly, he walked 22 (and struck out 20) in those 24.2 innings. He had 1 win share and 0.0 WAR.
Twins motivation: They wanted to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

It was significant that the Twins dumped Neshek even though he still had an option left; that indicates that the organization either had concluded that he was unlikely to regain his pre-injury effectiveness and/or didn't want him around.

He was up and down with the Padres, and he is currently a free agent.

When: Aug. 25, 2011
What: Lost designated hitter Jim Thome on waivers to Cleveland
Value: He had 13 win shares total for the season, 0.5 WAR with the Indians.
Twins motivation: Cleared his salary off the books for the last six weeks or so of the season, gave him a chance to be at least in the fringes of a pennant race and an opportunity to make amends with the fans of his first major league team.

Jim Thome pretended
to play third base for
one pitch against the
Twins in a September
game.

Big name, exceedingly minor deal. It was originally announced as a player-to-be-named trade, but once it was obvious that the Indians weren't making the postseason they changed it to straight cash and not much of it.

Thome has signed with Philadelphia for 2012, and the Phillies are making noises about playing him at first base on occasion. Good luck with that.

When: Sept. 27, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Esmerling Vasquez off waivers from Arizona
Value: The Twins did not add him to the active roster for the final week of the season.
Twins motivation: He's a power arm bullpen possibility.

The Diamondbacks needed to clear space on their 40-man roster, and lopped Vasquez, who has pitched in 141 major league games for the D'backs (137 innings, 80 walks, 120 strikeouts). Good arm, uncertain control. The Twins are collecting a bunch of this kind of arm and hoping one of them can figure it out.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Jeff Gray off waivers from Seattle.
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Twins motivation: Another bullpen option.

I'm including this transaction and the following one with the 2011 season because they came just before Bill Smith was removed from the general manager's job, and they ought to be included.

Gray is a knock-around reliever who has been in the majors with Oakland, the Cubs, the White Sox and Seattle. I'm not particularly enthused about him, and would expect that Vasquez and Lester Oliveros (and others) are ahead of him on the totem pole, but Gray is on the 40-man roster, so he's got a chance to make the team this spring.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Matt Maloney off waivers from Cincinnati
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Motivation: Provides some depth for the starting rotation.

Maloney hasn't established himself as a major leaguer, and his stuff isn't all that impressive, but he's put up good numbers in Triple A. Maybe he's what's derisively known as a Quadruple A pitcher, but I suspect he'd be an improvement over Nick Blackburn if given a shot. Of course, Blackburn has two more years and some $10 million left on his contract, so he's got dibs on the rotation berth.

Some catching alternatives

Drew Butera hit .167/.210/.239 in 254 plate appearances last season, which is pretty putrid but not quite as bad as Rene Rivera's .144/211/.202 in 114 plate appearances. And both looked like Babe Ruth next to Steve Holm .118/.167/.176), but at least the Twins invested just 18 PAs in him.

Rivera has been taken off the 40-man roster. Butera is still on the 40, but considering how poorly he performed both at the plate and behind it -- he had seven passed balls, which is a lot for someone who (a) caught less than half his team's innings and (b) wasn't dealing with a knuckleballer -- his job is hardly secure.

A meeting early in the season
between two subjects of
this post: Ryan Doumit
tags out Jose Morales.

There are, or will be, some interesting (and flawed) alternatives to back up Joe Mauer available this winter, starting with the guy who lost out to Butera in 2010.

Jose Morales was traded after the 2010 season to Colorado, a move that opened a roster spot to re-sign Carl Pavano. (The minor league pitcher acquired in the the deal, Paul Bargas, was found during spring training to have a brain tumor; in a season marked by a seemingly endless string of health issues, Bargas' was simultanously the lowest profile and the worst.) Morales opened the season as the Rockies back-up catcher, but he fractured his thumb and was limited to just 22 games, 71 plate appearances. He didn't play anywhere, majors or minors, after June.

Colorado outrighted Morales earlier this month. He's 28, he's had plenty of injuries, he's out of options, he doesn't have a great defensive reputation, he doesn't have much power -- but he's a good contact hitter, especially left-handed (he's a switch hitter).

Will the Twins bring him back? I doubt it, if only because it would imply an admission of error in choosing him over Butera. Still, if they want a low-cost bat-first catcher, he's a possibility.

Two other guys, likely to be pricier than Morales (or Butera), who caught my eye last month are Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder, both now of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pittsburgh GM has said that he is unlikely to pick up the options on either man.

Doumit is a good hitter -- not just a good hitter for a catcher, but a good hitter, period. As a catcher, he's pretty brutal, and the Pirates ran him out in right field and first base some last season before he went down with an injury, which isn't unusual for him (he's spent time on the DL every season since 2006).

I think the switch hitter would be particularly attractive if the Twins lose both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel in free agency; Doumit could be used to DH, back up Mauer and play some right field (or first bas) as well. He'll turn 31 in April.

Snyder isn't as good a hitter as Doumit but is a superior defender. He'll turn 31 in February. His problem: He had back surgery during the season. He is said to be recovering well, but catching is tough on backs.

These are three different types of catcher. I would think the Twins would be more interested in somebody like Snyder is they fear Mauer can't catch 130 times in 2012. Doumit would make sense if the Twins want to carry Butera as a defensive catcher, freeing Doumit to DH or play other positions. And Morales, or his ilk, would be a bat-first backup.

And, of course, cost matters.

Notes, quotes and comment (catcher division)

A s a general thing, backup catchers aren't asked to win games so much as they are expected to avoid losing them. 

Steve Holm takes that concept a bit further:

"I think most people are realistic in knowing that no team has someone who's going to replace Joe Mauer," Holm said. "It's not like I'm trying to actually do that. ... You don't try to duplicate that.

"Like the old adage, you don't want to be noticed. You just want to do your job, and at the end of the day, don't do anything noticeable."

The first part, about not trying to replace Mauer, is eminently sensible. The part about not doing anything noticeable ... well, that might be part of why Holm's spent so much time in the minors. Drew Butera, after all, had three RBIs Monday night, which is certainly noticeable.

---

We're more than a week from this becoming an issue, but I'm wondering what Holm's option status is. My assumption with a 31-year-old player with his tenure in the minors is that he's out of options, but Holm may not be. He does have two partial major league seasons, so I'm sure at least two of his three options are gone. 

This becomes relevant when Joe Mauer is ready to return to action. If Holm is out of options, the Twins would have to waive him to send him back to Rochester. If the Twins don't want to risk losing him, their alternative is to instead option out Butera.

---

Jose Morales, traded during the winter to Colorado, is the Rockies backup catcher. I got to see a few innings of the Rox' win against the Cubs on Sunday with Morales behind the dish. He's hitting .273 in 14 at-bats, which seems about right.

I wrote about this at the time, but given the Twins' current catching situation it's worth repeating: The Twins traded Morales because he was out of options and behind Butera on their depth chart, the Twins having decided they prefer Butera's superior defense to Morales' batting average. They used the roster spot opened by the trade to sign Jim Thome.

Had they kept Morales and dumped somebody else to make room for Thome, they still would have had to move Morales at the end of spring training (unless they decided to keep him over Butera). So I don't fault the Twins for trading him.

Meanwhile, the minor league pitcher the Twins got in the deal, Paul Bargas, is apparently in tough shape with an unspecified neurological condition. 

Pic of the week

This play made Baseball Tonight's Web Gems.

This features former Twin Jose Morales, now the reserve catcher for Colorado, getting thrown out at home on Saturday.

Actually, it involves two former Twins, one of whom isn't in the photo. The Pittsburgh outfielder who gunned down Morales is Garrett Jones.

It's a odd little play, really. Jones is more a first baseman than an outfielder; he doesn't really have the arm to play right. Morales is a catcher who suffered a severely broken ankle a few years ago; he can't run. Ryan Doumit, the catcher who applied the tag, is (like Morales) a bat-first catcher with defensive limitations.

So we have here an outfielder who can't throw nailing a baserunner who can't run with the aid of a catcher who can't catch. All the weaknesses came together to make this photo.

Parsing the Jose Morales trade

On the same day that Tsuyoshi Nishioka arrived in the Twin Cities to take a physical and, presumably, finalize his contract with the Twins, Minnesota traded one of its two reserve catchers, Jose Morales, to the Colorado Rockies for Paul Bargas.

Jose Morales is likely
to be the No. 2 catcher
for the Colorado Rockies
in 2011.

Bargas is a left-handed pitcher, drafted in 2009, who put up some interesting numbers in low A ball last season. Since he was a 13th-round pick, I'm guessing he's not a particularly hard thrower, but that's only a guess; he hasn't been sufficiently highly regarded to get mentioned by the prospect gurus I pay attention to.  Whether or not Bargas is a soft tosser, it will be interesting to see if his strikeout rate holds as he moves up the ladder.

This trade probably wasn't so much about adding Bargas as it was clearing Morales off the 40-man roster. He's out of options, and presumably the Twins prefer Drew Butera's defensive chops to Morales' batting average. The Twins chose to move Morales now rather than wait to see if either Butera or Joe Mauer gets hurt during spring training.

At this moment, the Twins have 37 men on the 40-man roster. Nishioka will make it 38. If, as I increasingly believe will happen, the Twins re-sign Carl Pavano, that will be 39.

Which would still leave a slot open. I therefore suspect that there is a signing somewhere in the Twins near future beyond Nishioka and Pavano. Therein would lie the advantage in moving Morales in December rather than waiting until closer to the season.

No Kouzmanoff for the Twins

The Padres have reportedly agreed to ship third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff (right) to Oakland.

Kouzmanoff had supposedly been the subject of trade talks with the Twins, who were believed to be dangling Glen Perkins in exchange. San Diego wanted more than Perkins, and the Twins wouldn't budge.

I'm not dismayed by this; Kouzmanoff is a low OBP guy, and putting him back-to-back with Delmon Young in the lineup is a recipe for lots of outs and quick innings. He's got some power, and his numbers were dragged down by the San Diego park, but as a hitter he's essentially a younger, healthier version of Joe Crede. And defensively, he's not much.

Still, it's another infield option that won't come to fruition for the Twins, and every one that slips past makes the return of Crede more likely. The more I think about it, the more interesting Matt Tolbert looks.

Meanwhile, Mike Redmond (left) signed Friday with the Cleveland Indians. And his putative successor as the backup catcher, Jose Morales, needs wrist surgery.

Redmond's departure was expected and planned for; Morales' injury may leave him not quite ready for Opening Day but doesn't figure to be long lasting. Still, it was an unwelcome pair of developments to have on the same day.

My last (?) Dome game

Tragic number: 13. Can't count on the Royals beating Detroit every game.

My wife and I went Wednesday to what we expect will be our final game at the Metrodome (photo, right, by Linda Vanderwerf). While the journey itself will, for reasons irrelevant to the blog, likely be more memorable than the game itself, a few observations:

* More examples of how difficult it is to capture defense in the stats. Cleveland's Aaron Laffey — a pitcher I really like — was victimized repeatedly by the apparent decision by his teammates that cutoff plays are overrated. A Twin heads to third, the throw has no chances of getting him, the throw goes through, and the batter takes second base. Some variation on this play happened three times Wednesday, and it would have been four if Jason Kubel could run — and the Twins turned those extra bases into three runs.

Then there's Jose Morales's second double of the game — or, as I would have scored it, single and error on Shin-Soo Choo. Next guy (Matt Tolbert) hits an grounder to first, Morales goes to third, later scores. If Morales is held to a single, maybe the Indians can keep him out of scoring position.

These things matter to Laffey. Well, they matter to all pitchers, but they particularly matter to a Tommy-John-in-training. He's going to give up hits. He needs his defense to keep the double play in order, and they didn't do that Wednesday. So he gets saddled with six earned runs — but if the defense had been sharper, it's three or so.

Not to oversell Laffey's performance. He did give up 12 hits and three walks, and he didn't strike out anybody. He's been better.

* It sure seems as if they've had more problems with the Dome's dirt since the football season started and the Dome has to do double duty. At least twice now the grounds crew has had to come out for mid-game mound reconstruction, and on Wednesday Michael Cuddyer twice spent pitching changes over at the mound cleaning mud out of his spikes.

Mud. In the Dome. Strange.

* Jose Morales can hit. (Two doubles and a sac fly, a run and an RBI in four plate appearances.)

* Carlos Gomez can run. (Scored from first on a double by Cuddyer — who took third on the throw home. See above.)

* The bullpen made me nervous. Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan combined to throw 67 pitches to get eight outs. Only 36 of those pitches were strikes.

Old McDonald hit a bomb

Tragic number as of Wednesday morning: 19.

Twins and Tigers both had three run leads in the middle innings behind rookie starters, and both saw their middle relief implode.

In the Twins case, it was newcomer Jon Rauch (above), who entered with the bases loaded and no outs. He not only allowed all three inherited runners to score, he gave up three of his own. Which really ruins his Minnesota ERA (from 0.00 to 5.78), not that 4 2/3 innings is significant.

Unlike most middle relief meltdowns under Ron Gardenhire, this was strictly a one-pitcher affair. But Rauch faced no left-handed hitters; Cito Gaston loaded the lineup with right-handers against Brain Duensing and stuck with them against Rauch. That meant Gardenhire didn't have his usual opportunities to shuffle in a LOOGY and work back to a righty.

Two other points:

* Any team that gives up three hits, including a home run, to John McDonald deserves to lose.

* Last Friday I posted a piece comparing Jose Morales and Mike Redmond. Since then Morales has started once; the Twins won. And Redmond has started once; the Twins lost.

Mike Redmond vs. Jose Morales

Some data points Ron Gardenhire either doesn't know or — more likely — doesn't believe enough to act on:

Twins' won-loss record in games started by Mike Redmond: 12-24, .333 winning percentage.

Twins' won-loss record in games started by Jose Morales: 9-6, .600 winning percentage.

Twins' won-loss record in games started by Joe Mauer: 46-36, .560 winning percentage.

---

Twins ERA when Redmond catches: 5.54

Twins ERA when Morales catches: 4.59

Twins ERA when Mauer catches: 4.38

---

Opposition stolen bases/caught stealing with Redmond catching: 30/5

Opposition stolen bases/caught stealing with Morales catching: 13/8

Opposition stolen bases/caught stealing with Mauer catching: 45/17

---

And, of course, there are the hitting stats, which Gardy is certainly familiar with and which you can see by clicking on the linked names above.

I'm sure there are things Mike Redmond does better than Jose Morales. I can't find that they translate into results.

Disposing of a trade rumor

Buster Olney writes on ESPN.com of potential trade partners with the Atlanta Braves, the core concept here being that the Braves are willing to deal shortstop Yunel Escobar for an outfield bat.

One of the teams mentioned is Minnesota:

Escobar would be perfect for the Twins in many respects, and Minnesota has an array of outfielders to choose from, whether it be Michael Cuddyer or Denard Span; Delmon Young is hitting .264 with three homers, and it's hard to imagine that the Braves would seriously consider him in any trade. But the Twins' focus is on relief pitching, and an aggressive midseason deal really doesn't fit their style — and if Escobar's conduct in Atlanta has turned off the Braves' coaching staff, then this is certainly not the type of thing that the Twins would go for. Span is an interesting name, though, because his service time (and salary) is close to that of Escobar, and he is widely seen as a player on the rise.

The possibility that the Twins would deal Span for a shortstop exhibiting attitude problems is slim to none. Not only because they value Span, and not only because they don't put up with such behavior, but because they'd likely rather acquire a second baseman than a shortstop.

Brendan Harris' (photo above) stats have plummeted in the past few days — he's 1-for 15 in July — but Ron Gardenhire finds him acceptable at short and unacceptable at second. Get a second baseman, and the Twins would probably find some way of time-sharing short between Harris and Nick Punto. Get a shortstop, and Harris becomes almost useless.

---

Some comments on Saturday's game:

*It was an odd sentence about Francisco Liriano in the AP's game story: "He intentionally threw a lot of first-pitch strikes, which ultimately hurt him in the seventh."

He should intentionally throw a lot of first-pitch strikes. The best pitch in baseball is the first-pitch strike. It's called getting ahead of the hitters.

Liriano faced 27 men and threw 18 first-pitch strikes. He threw, in total, 103 pitches, 65 strikes, 38 balls — not quite the preferred 2-1 ratio, but closer than he often is.

A good game for Liriano.

* Magglio Ordonez has just 14 extra base hits this year. Three of them have come against the Twins.

* Jose Morales failed twice to get down the bunt in the bottom of the eighth inning (bad). Then he hit a slow roller that moved Matt Tolbert to second (good) and was applauding himself as he crossed first base. Moral equivalent of a sac bunt.

Nothing against Mike Redmond, but I'm increasingly ready for the Jose Morales era at backup catcher.

* The game stories (AP and elsewhere) make mention of it, but let me join in: That was some good baserunning by Tolbert to score the winning run.

Roster issues

Nick Punto (left) made it through all nine innings Monday, which suggests that the infielder isn't headed to the disabled list.

This may be bad news for third-string catcher Jose Morales, who is the likely loser if, as appears likely, the Twins revert to a 12-pitcher roster with seven relievers.

They've been carrying 11 pitchers for more than a week, partly because they had nicked-up position players and partly because they had the six-game interleague road stretch, which means no DH, which means more need to pinch hit.

(Never mind that National League teams, who typically play without the DH, also typically carry 12 pitchers; every year, Ron Gardenhire wants the extra bat available. for those games.)

Now that stretch is over, and the question arises again: Are the Twins better off using the 25th roster slot on a position player (specifically a third catcher) or a pitcher?

Morales was useful in the interleague games as a pinch-hitter; now his value largely lies in allowing Gardenhire to pinch-run for Mike Redmond in those games in which Joe Mauer is the DH. (Morales is arguably a better player than Redmond right now, but Gardy has been quite emphatic the last few days that Redmond is the No. 2 catcher.)

The value in a seventh reliever would be to spread out the workload. R.A. Dickey on Monday made his third straight appearance; while Gardy is fond of claiming that Dickey can pitch everyday, it's not a good idea to actually do that, knuckleball or no. After getting a week off, Jose Mijares has now pitched three times in four days. Matt Guerrier, who led the AL in appearances last season, is leading again this season.

The problem is that these guys are getting the ball in close situations, in winnable games. Sean Henn can't be trusted — he hasn't had a perfect outing (no baserunners) since June 8. Bobby Keppel had a superficially good debut during the weekend (three walks in four innings isn't encouraging); he hasn't earned key spots yet, and probably never will.

A 12th pitcher is only going to be truly helpful if he's capable of taking some of the workload off the setup men, not the long man or the mopup guy. Of the in-house candidates, that sounds most likely to be Jesse Crain, but he walked five men in his first 5 2/3 innings in Triple A.

He ain't fixed yet.