Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Jon Garland gets no respect

Compare these two pitchers:

Pitcher A: 14-12, 200 innings, 3.47 ERA
Pitcher B: 17-11, 221 innings, 3.75 ERA

Of course, there's more to the numbers. Player A had unimpressive component stats in 2010— but always does. He's also 30 and has a truly impressively consistent nine-year record — every year he makes 32 starts, pitches about 200 innings, wins 10-plus games. Everything about his stats says he's mediocre; somehow he adds up to more than mediocre.

Jon Garland is the definition of innings eater. 
Pitcher B is five years older and, while he's been healthy the past two seasons, has a frightening injury history. He has just four seasons of 30-plus starts on his resume, four seasons of 200-plus innings (and that's including a season in which he gets there by counting a postseason start).

Pitcher A, despite being much younger, has pitched more than 300 more innings than Pitcher B with 30 more decisions. Their career ERAs are almost identical—4.32 for Pitcher A, 4.34 for Pitcher B

Pitcher A is Jon Garland, who on Sunday signed with the Dodgers for one year, $5 million (with incentives-based bonuses and 2012 option).

Pitcher B is Carl Pavano, who remains a free agent and is about as hotly pursued this offseason as any pitcher can be without the Yankees involved. Somebody is going to give him at least three years — and twice as much guaranteed money a year.

Seems to me that the wrong guy is getting the big contract. Not that I would turn down $5 million myself.


The Twins signed a 17-year-old Dominican shortstop prospect, although Javier Pimentel is a growing boy and may, as they say, outgrow the position. Whether he's a shortstop or some other position, it'll be a while before we know if the $575,000 was wisely spent.

1 comment:

  1. Seems to me that Garland didn't give the market enough time to show him respect this year. I found it odd that he was so quick to agree to that small contract.