Thursday, November 11, 2010

Free agent arbitration: Matt Guerrier

2011 age: 32 (turns 33 in August)

Free agent classification: Type A

2010 basic stats: 5-7, 1 save, 3.17 ERA (full stats here)

2010 salary: $3.15 million

The Outsider's verdict: No


The primary problem with offering arbitration to Matt Guerrier is in the second line above: His status as a Type A free agent.

Matt Guerrier has risen
from mop-up man to
primary set-up man
in seven seasons with
the Twins.
It means that, if the Twins offer arbitration, a team that signs Guerrier is likely to lose its first-round pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's not the case for a bad team, but bad teams aren't likely to pursue a 30-something middle reliever, and Guerrier isn't likely to be eager to sign with a non-contender. He's facing the same dilemma that has confronted the likes of Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudson: The low guys on the Type A totem pole find that their status weakens their negotiating position.

If offered arbitration, Guerrier is likely to accept; and the Twins may not want to fit his likely award into their budget.

He's had a nice run with the Twins. Twice he's led the league in appearances. His ERA has been under 3.40 in every full season but one.

Not bad for a guy the Twins plucked from the waiver wire when the Pittsburgh Pirates decided he wasn't worthy of a spot on their 40-man roster.

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