Scott Boras and the Strasburg shutdown

Stephen Strasburg has thrown his last pitch of the 2012
season.

Last month I took note of this Washington Post column in which agent Scott Boras implied that he was forcing the Nationals to shut down Stephen Strasburg, who is the Nats' ace and a Boras client.

On Monday came this ESPN piece in which Boras disclaims any role whatsoever in the decision.

Yeah, right.

I think the truth is in the middle: That Boras, representing Strasburg, and Mike Rizzo, the Washington general manager, were in agreement all along on how the pitcher's first full year back from Tommy John surgery would be handled.

I think Boras' ego ran away from him in the Post interview. I think Boras wants to be known as a sharp judge of baseball talent as well as a superb negotiator. And he may be that judge of talent, but it's sometimes obscured by the occupational hazard of overselling the talent of his clients; for example, his notorious booklet favorably comparing then-free agent Oliver Perez to Sandy Koufax. To be known as a talent evaluator, you have to build teams, and that, I think, lies behind his August suggestion that he is Rizzo's co-GM.

As for the shutdown itself: I think it's the right thing to do for both Strasburg and the Nationals.

It's best for Strasburg because, in a real sense, this season was a continuation of last year's rehab. He ends the season just shy of 160 innings, which was said in the spring to be his target, and follows the advice of his surgeon. Rehabbing from ligament replacement isn't a precise endeavor, but there's no good reason to disregard the surgeon's protocol.

It's best for the Nats because Strasburg's performance has been slipping in recent weeks, whether because (as manager Davy Johnson suggested) of the mental stress of his impending shutdown or because of fatigue in this rebuilding-the-arm season. His ERA before the All-Star break was 2.82; his ERA since, 3.73. Which isn't bad, but it's going the wrong way, as are his strikeout and walk rates.

The Nats still have four solid power pitchers lined up for the postseason in Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Ross Detweiler and Edwin Jackson. Given the trajectory of Strasburg's season, the Nats may not be worse off in October without him.

There are no guarantees in any of this. The Nats might win the World Series without Strasburg; they might be knocked off in the first round. Strasburg may go on to have a full and brilliant career; he could blow out his elbow again in spring training.

The Nationals made the best decision they could with the information they had. And part of that decision-making process is this reality: Scott Boras is Strasburg's agent, and Boras was and is definitely in favor of shutting the pitcher down. He probably didn't force the move, but he was hardly silent about it either.

More on the Strasburg Shutdown

The Nationals shut down Jordan Zimmermann
last season after 161.1 innings.

The Monday print column is about the Washington Nationals' intent to shut down Stephen Strasburg at some point in September.

Here I intend to follow some tangents, largely on the role of uber-agent Scott Boras, I passed over for the always-tight Monday newshole in sports:

* This innings limitation is not strictly a Nationals idea. It appears to be the new standard in Tommy John cases.  Consider the Twins and pitching prospect Kyle Gibson.

Gibson, like Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann (another young Nationals starter who was shut down after topping 160 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery), returned to game action in mid-season roughly one year after having his ligament replaced.

The Twins have made it known that Gibson's innings next season — his first full season after the surgery — will be limited.

In short, the Twins appear to have the Strasburg/Zimmermann protocol in mind for Gibson's future.

* On Saturday we ran this Washington Post piece — a column by Mike Wise — in which Boras gets to depict himself as the power behind the throne of the Nationals.

I found it a fascinating piece, partly because it so echoed Boras' self-description last winter as a partner to the Detroit Tigers.

Boras does have a record of landing high-priced clients repeatedly with certain teams; I've tended to think of it more as a case of those front offices (or owners) being particular suckers for Boras' sales pitch.

The plan to shut down Stephen Strasburg
for the postseason — and perhaps the final
weeks of the regular season — is
hotly debated around the game.

As I said in the previous link, it's dangerous for a team to behave as if Boras is its ally. The Texas Rangers learned that the hard way, or at least its previous ownership did.

* Strasburg has been depicted throughout this controversy as opposed to a shutdown.

It's always useful in such cases to remember: The agent works for the player. It's never the other way around.

If Boras is pushing the Nationals to take it easy on Strasburg, it's a safe bet it's with Strasburg's approval. It may be Boras' idea that Strasburg shouldn't exceed 160 innings (or whatever the number is), but Strasburg is on board.

If he really wanted to push the envelope, he could publicly rebuke Boras, even fire him. He hasn't, and he won't. And, at least in this case, shouldn't.

* I find myself wondering what role the pitcher shutdown plan had in Jim Riggleman's decision last summer to quit as Washington manager.

The Nats had won 11 of 12 when Riggleman walked out on June 23, citing Mike Rizzo's refusal to talk contract extension. Now I wonder if the plan to limit Zimmermann's innings might have been part of the issue.

Riggleman was the manager who had the rookie Kerry Wood in 1998. In retrospect, he rode the kid hard that year, and it understandable. Riggleman was under pressure to win now, not to keep an eye on the long haul.

Still, Rizzo may well have seen Riggleman's track record as being exactly what he didn't want handling Strasburg and Zimmermann. And if Riggleman wasn't on board with limiting Zimmermann last year, Rizzo probably didn't mind seeing him leave.

Notes, quotes and comment

The Twins on Friday tweeted this photo of  Tom Kelly,
Jim Leyland and Tony LaRussa standing around
the batting cage talking golf. The three managers
account for six World Series titles among them. (The
fourth, No. 22, is Tigers coach Gene Lamont, himself a
former manager for eight years.)

Lots of baseball heavyweights at Target Field on Friday, and I'm not just talking about the rotund Prince Fielder.

Scott Boras, uberagent, was seen in Terry Ryan's suite with the Twins general manager; the assumption is that they were discussing the No. 2 pick in the draft. The new rules about bonuses installed by the labor deal have sharply decreased the importance of "advisors," but Boras is doubtless still a figure to be reckoned with.

Tony LaRussa put in an appearance. He's delivering World Series rings to players from last year's Cardinals team who aren't still with the Redbirds, and one such is P.J. Walters. Walters got into four games for St. Louis last year, and was long gone before the postseason, but his four innings (all in June) is enough to get a ring.

Walters isn't about to turn it down, of course, but I doubt he views it with as much pride as, let us say, Nick Punto does his. Punto was part of the team all year and played a lot (and well) during the postseason.

---

I mentioned the draft earlier. Baseball America's Jim Callis on Friday issued his second mock draft. He continues to have the Houston Astros taking Stanford RHP Mark Appel 1/1, with the Twins tabbing high school outfielder Bryon Buxton.

From Callis' subscription-only text:

As much as Minnesota needs pitching, it isn't expected to pass up the opportunity to take Buxton, who has the best all-around package of tools in the draft. If the Astros take Buxton, the Twins might take (San Francisco RHP Kyle) Zimmer over Appel or go with (Florida catcher Mike) Zunino and move Joe Mauer to another position.
Projected Pick: Byron Buxton.

The draft begins a week from Monday.

---

Anthony Swarzak, Friday's starter, worked despite flu-like symptoms, so his difficult outing might be forgiven. Francisco Liriano, on the other hand ... just not good.

It was being pointed out on Twitter that Swarzak's ERA as a starter this year is 8.34, as a reliever 3.06. We're only talking 18 innings or so in either catagory, but that's the kind of split that can get a guy pigeonholed.

Especially since he came into the game with a career ERA as a starter of 5.50 and as a reliever of 3.70.

I don't know of a specific reason he'd be better out of the bullpen, but the pattern is evident.

Scott Boras, "business partner"

Scott Boras has found a sucker in Mike Ilitch, and has
convinced Ilitch that's a good thing.

This piece from the Detroit Free Press, contains a Scott Boras quote that cries out for some analysis:

"I told (Tigers owner Mike Ilitch), 'This is never easy, sir, because you're going to have to sign contracts that people are going to tell you aren't good contracts. My job is to make them good contracts by getting those players to perform and help you.' "

Since that purported conversation after the Tigers 119-loss season in 2003, the Tigers (and Ilitch) have been a favored landing place for Boras clients. And the Tigers have been to a World Series (2006) and won a division title (2011), which is certainly an improvement over 119 losses.

But have the Tigers' deals with Boras' clients been "good contracts?" It depends on how you want to define good. Some cases: 

Magglio Ordonez pulled in a bit less than $100 million for Ilitch and Co. over the past seven seasons; he had one huge season, a few good ones, and was a part-time player in three. Good contract or bad?

Ivan Rodriguez got $48.5 million over five years from the Tigers, including the three biggest salaries of his illustrious career; his production sank like a stone during that time. 

Rick Porcello, billed as an instant ace, got a record-setting $11.1 million deal coming out of high school. He has turned into Nick Blackburn — a low-strikeout back-of-the-rotation guy. (He also has a different agent now.) And now he's turning really expensive.

Last week Boras stuck Ilitch with Prince Fielder, a nine-year solution to the Tigers' one-year problem (the injury that will keep DH Victor Martinez out for 2012). Fielder's bat may make him worth his bloated salary for a while; like Mags and Pudge, he'll be a liability later in the deal.

Ilitch is willing to run pretty big operating deficits in pursuit of a few more wins. Boras is quite willing to help him run up those deficits, just as he helped Tom Hicks run the Texas Rangers into bankruptcy. The Rangers didn't grow into the two-time AL World Series representative that they are now until they shook their addiction to Boras clients. 

Odds are the Fielder deal won't swamp Ilitch financially in the way the Alex Rodriguez contract did Hicks. But Ilitch seems to me too much a sucker for Boras' sales pitch. Boras ain't his partner; he's the employee of some of his employees. Boras' goal is to extract Ilitch's money.

On backup catchers and Scott Boras

Scott Boras, baseball's most renowned/notorious player agent, was roaming the site of the general managers meeting this week even before the GMs arrived, and he apparently rehearsed his pitch for two of his clients on the Star Tribune's Joe Christensen.

The Twins are actively
looking for an
alternative to
Drew Butera.

The clients in question, Pudge Rodriguez and Jason Veritek, are a couple of faded stars now looking for a backup gig someplace. The Twins are looking for a No. 2 catcher who'd be an upgrade on Drew Butera, so theoretically there's a fit there.

Theoretically. I'm not trying to needle Joe C. for taking the notion of either with the Twins seriously; I did a post on the same possibility recently. I am wondering what the point would be for the Twins, however.

Terry Ryan told Christensen that Joe Mauer's goal is to catch 130-plus games in 2012, and Mauer is Plan A. If all the Twins need is some one to handle the other 32 -- the equivalent of catching Carl Pavano's starts, basically -- Butera is sufficient, and probably cheaper than either of Boras's clients.

The problem, of course, is that Mauer didn't catch even 50 games in 2011, and you don't want to have the weak-hitting Butera catching 110-120 games. The Twins want to have a superior Plan B, somebody they can turn the job over to if need be. And at this point to their careers, I don't think either Rodriguez or Veritek fits that bill. Once a week, OK; five games a week, I don't think so.

But then, that's the deal with backup catchers. They're backups because they're flawed. Butera can't hit; Rodriguez is broken down but hanging on in pursuit of 3,000 hits; Ryan Doumit is a defensive butcher. Catchers one can rely on to handle the job for a full season are relatively rare and priced accordingly.

Rod Barajas, for example. Christensen had named him early on as a possible target for the Twins, and he's not a particularly outstanding player. He's 36, and he hit .230/.287/.430 last season for the Dodgers in 99 games. He got $4 million from the Pirates to be their No. 1 backstop.

The Twins are not, and should not be, eager to spend that much on somebody they hope doesn't get 150 at-bats. If they're going to spend that kind of money, it ought to be on somebody they can still use if Mauer bounces back. Somebody like Doumit.

---

The Twins haven't had a lot of dealings with Boras over the years, and when they have it's generally been situations in which Boras has little leverage.

I can only think of three Twins-Boras encounters in more than 25 years. Kyle Lohse is and was a Boras client; he's the only Twins player to go to an arbitration hearing since Andy MacPhail became the Minnesota general manager back in 1986. Veritek was a Twins draftee in 1993 and, with Boras as his "advisor" (a legal fiction designed to placate the NCAA), declined to sign. And the Twins scooped up Kenny Rogers after training camps opened in 2003 when they decided they needed a veteran to fill out their rotation and Rogers was still looking for a job.

This is another situation in which Boras' clients probably need the Twins more than the Twins need the Boras clienst. I can't help but wonder how he'd handle a situation in which the Twins (or somebody else) effectively say, We'll take either of them -- whichever costs less. Does he take the bird in the hand for Pudge, or for Veritek? Does he seek a bigger payout for Pudge, or for Veritek? There is a potential here for a conflict of interest.

Whether or not they deal with Boras this winter in their search for a catcher, Boras looms over this summer's amateur draft. The Twins have the No. 2 pick in June, and Boras is likely to be the advisor to a good portion of the likely top picks. Be it by luck or design, the Twins haven't had draft day collisions with Boras for some time. That may well change come June, and may remind Ryan of why he wanted out of the general manager's gig four years ago.

The Twins, arbitration, Delmon Young and Scott Boras

Seth Stohs last night reported that Delmon Young's Facebook page said he and the Twins had reached a contract and avoided an arbitration hearing.

Delmon Young had 68
extra-base hits in 2010.

There's been no official announcement of this and no details, but I see no reason to doubt it. (Addendum: The Star Tribune's LaVelle Neal says it's $5.375 million.) The Twins have typically avoided the confrontational hearings; I believe that since Andy MacPhail took over the the Minnesota front office in 1986, the only arbitration hearings they've had were two with Kyle Lohse.

It's probably not a coincidence that Lohse is also the one multi-year Twin to be represented by Scott Boras, an agent noted for pushing the envelope. The Twins haven't completely avoided dealing with Boras's clients, but they haven't made a habit of signing them either, and have generally only done so when the leverage was almost entirely on the Twins side (as with Kenny Rogers in 2003).

I can't think of a Boras client the Twins have drafted since they used a first round pick on Jason Veritek and failed to sign him. (Maybe Lohse was a Boras client when he turned pro, but I think he hired Boras after his career got going.) Avoiding the agent may make negotiations easier, but he represents a fast-growing share of the top talents, and I suspect that an unofficial policy of bypassing anybody with a Boras connection would prove self-defeating.

As long as the Twins continue to draft in the bottom third every June, it won't be much of an issue.

Getting back to Young (who is not a Boras client): I have a colleague who insists that Young was the Twins MVP last year. Such an assessment overvalues the RBI stat (Young drove in 112 runs). Young did have easily his best year with the bat, but that's only part of the package. Baseball Reference's version of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) puts the 2010 Young at 0.8 WAR, meaning that he should be a reserve -- 2.9 WAR as a hitter, minus 2.1 WAR for his defense.

I'm not sold on the defensive metrics, but I have no doubt that Young is a subpar outfielder. Add that to an on base percentage that even last year was barely above league average (and has always before been well below average) and you have a player with such significant flaws that there is no way for him to be the most important player on a 94-win team.

Spring fashion show

Curtis Granderson — former Detroit Tiger, even more former Mankato Masher and now a new member of the New York Yankees — combines his trademark high socks with the Yankees workout gear. Derek Jeter can't bear to look.

---

It's been more than a week since my last post, a rare bit of on-line silence from me caused by a shortage of compelling baseball news and a bit of a virus.

But it's time to re-emerge. The first major league training camps officially open today.

Not the Twins. They're typically one of the last to open camp, and in their case pitchers and catchers don't report until Sunday with first workouts on Monday.

All that's official, of course. Unofficially, players are already throwing balls and swinging bats at the various spring training facilities — as seen in the above Granderson-Jeter pic.

Meanwhile ...

Johnny Damon remains without team. Various reports have the Tigers being the lead suitors for the alleged outfielder, although at this point it's difficult to imagine that Detroit has indeed offered him a two-year, $14 million deal. He and greed-master agent Scott Boras can't possibly imagine at this point that anybody else is going to surpass, or even match, that figure.

Boras got dumped last week by another unsigned player, Felipe Lopez. The (sarcastic phrase alert) always classy Boras responded: "We wish Felipe well. He's a fine player. We understand that a player gets frustrated when we contact all 30 teams numerous times and there is not a starting job for him."

Methinks there was a starting job for him — at a certain price point.

Just as there was a price point at which Damon would still be a Yankee.

From the business side

The future of the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles got a bit uglier Thursday as the pending divorce of Frank and Jamie McCourt (above, in happier times) got a bit nastier.

Frank McCourt is the official owner of the Dodgers; Jamie is the CEO, or had been. They announced their separation last week; on Thursday, the Dodgers announced that Jamie had been fired as CEO.

The experience of the San Diego Padres the past year or so is not an encouraging template for Dodgers fans. The divorce proceedings of John and Becky Moores first stripped the club of operating capital, resulting in the departures of, among other veterans, franchise icon Trevor Hoffman. Then it resulted in the sale of the franchise to a group headed by former superagent (and former Boras rival) Jeffery Moorad, who has since fired long-time GM Kevin Towers.

And that's a situation in which one of the divorcing spouses (Becky Moores) had no official role in the operation.

*I don't know that the Fox boys ever mentioned him — they probably didn't notice him, observant as they are — but baseball's Lucifer, Scott Boras, was in the field-level seats right behind home plate Thursday, a constant presence over plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth's right shoulder in the basic TV shot from left-center field.

He was dressed in black, and I kept thinking it should be red, and he should have a pitchfork. (The angle on AP's photos from the outfield is different, and Boras isn't in them.)

Boras is well represented in the ALCS — his clients include Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixiera and Johnny Damon of the the Yankees and Jered Weaver of the "Los Angeles" Angels of Anaheim.

And while the free agent season hasn't started yet, he (or his minons) have already started the public jockeying, feeding favored journalistic bobo Jon Heyman the line that free agent outfielder Matt Holliday prefers the Yankees to all others.

Damon, of course, is the current Yankees left fielder. Ah, the plight of Boras. Which client does he burn? Probable answer: Which one will bring him the smaller commission?