On with the offseason

The Twins have not been idle since their season ended, but significant moves are still to come.

Prominent among them, of course, is the hiring of the new manager. The choices have apparently been whittled down to Paul Molitor and Torey Lovullo. I have no real objection to either, although, as I've said before, my (relatively ignorant) preference was/is Doug Mientkiewicz. But I will readily admit that Terry Ryan knows far more about those three than I do.

What else looms?

Forty-man roster stuff. Nov. 20 is the deadline to protect Rule 5 eligible players by adding them to the 40. The Twins have three no-brainer guys to add to the 40 in Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer and Eddie Rosario, and there was plenty of others who deserve serious consideration. (I will be quite surprised, for example, if Sean Gilmartin is not added to the 40.)

The Twins have reinstated Mike Pelfrey to the 40-man roster, giving them 19 pitchers, three or four catchers (the roster listed on their website this morning has Chris Herrmann as an outfielder), eight infielders and six or seven outfielders. That's 37 players. I've got to think some more deletions are coming.

The three I think are most likely on the bubble: OF-C Herrmann, 1B Chris Colabello and RHP A.J. Achter.

Hiring a coaching staff. The incumbents are in limbo pending a new manager. Apparently the Twins have not been approached by other teams for permission to talk to any of them for outside jobs.

I think it's safe to presume that Rick Anderson and Scott Ullger will not be back regardless of who the new manager is. And I suspect that Tom Brunansky will be. The rest, I don't know. I've suggested before that Joe Vavra may return to his previous job as minor league hitting coordinator.

The pitching staff. It wasn't good last year, and it's clogged with veterans who are essentially in the way of Meyer, Trevor May and Jose Berrios. We can reasonably figure that Phil Hughes isn't going anywhere. But I have to believe that somebody from the foursome of Kyle Gibson, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone and Pelfrey will depart by spring training.

A role for Ron Gardenhire. The Twins are going to pay him for the next year anyway. They might as well get something for the money. Gardenhire has not been publicly linked to any of the managerial openings this winter (Tampa Bay has one now), so that resolution seems unlikely.

Reviewing the priorities

The busiest (or at least the loudest) week of baseball's offseason — the one with the Winter Meetings and the non-tender deadline — is now behind us.

Where do the Twins stand on what would appear to be their offseason priorities?

1) Resolve Joe Mauer's contract status. Unfinished, with no public display of urgency. The metro coverage suggests this will move to the front burner in January.

2) Rebuild the infield. The addition of J.J. Hardy clears up shortstop. It's clear that Nick Punto will hold down either second or third, and it appears that the Twins are going to look for a late bargain for the other position. My current prediction is that we'll see a reprise of Joe Crede (above) with the hope that his back will hold out long enough for the organization to decide that Danny Valencia is ready.

3) Stabilize the rotation. The retention of Carl Pavano probably satisfies the decision makers. The view here is that he's just one of many back-of-the-rotation guys on the roster; the Twins need somebody to emerge as a true ace.

4) Fourth outfielder. I know — it's a bench job, and as such probably not a true priority. But the departure of Carlos Gomez means the Twins need somebody capable of filling in for Denard Span in center field without embarrassing a pitching staff prone to the fly ball. The leading in-house candidate is Jason Pridie, and I doubt that excites anybody.

Filling in the pitching gaps

I was browsing through the most recent issue of Baseball America and found in their Transactions column the news that the Twins had officially released pitchers Phil Humber and R.A. Dickey.

No real surprises there. Dickey had a decent run with the Twins in the first half, then seemed to lose something on his hard knuckler, and once he went back to Triple A the Twins never saw fit to bring him back. Not that his 5.13 ERA in Rochester suggested he deserved to return.

And the release of Humber reduced the return on Johan Santana to Carlos Gomez; Delois Guerra (who had a mild bounce-back season but is still not the prospect he was was the time of the trade); and, indirectly, Jon Rauch (acquired for Kevin Mulvey).

The Twins cut Humber and Dickey loose early because it was obvious that they didn't fit into their plans.

Which raises the question: What are the plans for the Twins 2010 pitching staff? What jobs are taken, what gaps need to be filled and who have they on hand to fill the gaps?

Figure it's a 12-man staff again. Pitchers in parenthesis are eligible for free agency but with mutual interest in returning to the Twins. Some of these job descriptions are arbitrary, but reasonable.

Rotation

Starter 1: Scott Baker (15-9, 4.37 ERA, 200 IP)

Starter 2: Vacant

Starter 3: Kevin Slowey (10-3, 4.86, 90.2)

Starter 4: Nick Blackburn (above) (11-11, 4.03, 205.2)

Starter 5: (Carl Pavano) (14-12, 5.10, 199.1)

Comments: I put the vacancy in the No. 2 slot because that's really where the gap is. Slowey is a more talented pitcher than either Blackburn or Pavano, but he has yet to survive a full season in a major league rotation. Blackburn and Pavano are very good guys for the back end of a rotation; I rank Blackburn higher because he's thrown about twice as many innings as Pavano has over the past two years.

The Twins need somebody who can challenge Baker for the title of best starter on the team. I don't think that pitcher is on hand right now. Kyle Gibson might get there some day; some still hold out hope for Francisco Liriano.

I expect the Twins to re-sign Pavano or acquire some other veteran pitcher. Either way, a rotation slot is going to be filled with a younger arm.

In-house candidates for the rotation: Liriano, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Jeff Manship. If Manship opens the season in the rotation, it probably means a lot of injuries. If Perkins opens in the rotation after (a) compiling a 5.89 ERA last season; (b) irritating the coaching staff by complaining of injuries after poor outings and (c) filing a grievance after a late season demotion deprived him of arbitration eligibility, I'll be shocked.

Bullpen

Closer: Joe Nathan (2.10 ERA, 47 saves)

Setup #1 (RH): Matt Guerrier (2.36, 33 holds)

Setup #2 (LH): Jose Mijares (2.34, 27 holds)

Middle relief #1: Rauch (3.60, 17 holds)

Middle relief #2: Jesse Crain (4.70, 5 holds)

LOOGY/utility pitcher: (Ron Mahay) (4.29, 6 holds)

Long man: Vacant

Comments: Mijares at times was used strictly as a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY). One can argue that Rauch is the No. 2 set up guy and Mijares is the LOOGY. Like I said: Arbitrary.

... Not all that certain what Crain's contract status is. I believe his contract has expired but he isn't eligible to file for free agency, which makes him arbitration eligible. The Twins generally make an offer to such players, but they could cut him loose. His post-All-Star break ERA (2.91) suggest they'll keep him.

... Mahay is 38. He pitched poorly for Kansas City, well for the Twins, but it was just 9 innings for Minnesota spread through 16 appearances.

Primary candidates: Pat Neshek, Bonser, Perkins, Duensing, Liriano. Neshek's the one guy in that list who doesn't make sense in the long man's role. If he's healthy, he's almost certain to push into that late inning pile with Guerrier, Rauch, Mijares and Crain. Which would push Mijares to the LOOGY job, and probably means a lefty has the inside track for the long man role.

... I include Perkins on the two lists of candidates only because he's still on the 40-man roster. The friction between him (and/or his agent) and the organization over his late-season demotion makes it increasingly unlikely that he'll be around next season.