No such thing as too much pitching

After posting on the folly of offering Jarrod Washburn $5 million, I did some more thinking about it, and decided ... it's still folly.

Still, there is a rationale behind it.

Here is a reasonable projection of the Twins starting rotation for 2010 at this point. One can quibble with the order, but the first four are clearly the first four, and the next three are the primary current candidates for the fifth spot, and the rest can be expected to open the season in Rochester, New Britain or lower levels of the farm system.

1) Scott Baker
2) Kevin Slowey
3) Nick Blackburn
4) Carl Pavano
5) Francisco Liriano

Plan B: Brian Duensing
Plan C: Glen Perkins
Plan D: Jeff Manship
Plan E: Anthony Swarzak
Plan F, etc: Mike Maroth, Jason Jones, Carlos Guterriez, Kyle Gibson...

Now ... Baker, Slowey and Perkins all spent time on the disabled list last year. Pavano didn't, but he's spent more time on the DL than active the past five seasons combined. Liriano had an ERA of 5.80 last season. Perkins feuded with the organization and is reportedly being made available in trade talks.

If the Twins could be sure their projected rotation would hold together, or close to it, a spare $5 million would be better aimed at other needs. But they can't be sure. Pitchers get hurt. It's a fact of baseball life.

Let's say just one of the four "sure things" gets hurt. Say it's Pavano. Let's say, also, that Liriano continues to struggle with his command.

Now it's Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Duensing and Perkins -- and that's assuming that Perkins isn't traded -- with Manship the first guy to get the call if needed. Yikes.

I'm not convinced the Twins would be better off with Washburn than with Perkins or Duensing. But I do see a need for more depth in the rotation. And I particularly see a need for somebody at the front end of the rotation. The Twins won't find that in a $5 million free agent. The guy who might fit that description is Liriano. But, at least on paper, signing Washburn blocks Liriano.

At least until an injury occurs.

The pursuit of Washburn

Here's a sentence you may never again see from me: Thank God for Scott Boras.

The Star Trib's LaVelle Neal says the Twins offered Jarrod Washburn a one-year, $5 million deal, which Boras (Washburn's agent) rejected.

The Twins keep playing Russian roulette with Washburn and dodging their own bullet. They tried to trade for Washburn in mid-year 2008, and the then-management in Seattle wasn't bright enough to dump his bloated contract on them. Someday the Twins won't be so lucky, and they'll wind up stuck with him.

Boras-Washburn erred in turning down this latest contract. Even discounting the notion that Washburn wants to play close to home (he lives in Webster, Wis.), his best shot at a contract is with an organization, like the Twins, skeptical of statistical analysis.

The stat-savvy operations have discounted his impressive 2009 Seattle line (8-6, 2.64) as a mirage conjured up by a spacious home park and off-the charts outfield defense. The Twins have no Ichiro in right field, no Franklin Gutierrez in center. We don't know how the new stadium's going to play, but few parks are as accommodating to flyball pitchers as Seattle's.

All this suggests to me that the Twins should stay far away from Washburn. They have four set starters (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey) and a passel of contenders for the fifth spot. As a fan, I'd much rather pay to see Brian Duensing pitch than Washburn; as an organization, the Twins should much prefer to pay Duensing $500,000 (actually less) to pitch than $5 million (or more) to Washburn.

On the other hand ... perhaps they have reason to doubt that Slowey's wrist is recovered. They should have doubts about Pavano putting up a second straight full season. Duensing and Francisco Liriano are not pitchers of established quality. Jeff Manship and Anthony Swarzak are even less established.

So I can understand why the Twins would be prowling about for starting depth. But $5 million is not an amount I see them walking away from in mid-May when Washburn has imploded, a la Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz.

A $1 million deal, I can see. Offering $5 million is asking for trouble. Having Scott Boras turn it down is priceless.

Why the trade deadline is overrated

Each of the three teams that thought a month ago it had a legit shot at the AL Central title made deals just before the July 31 trading deadline. Two made waiver deals for significant veterans shortly after the trading deadline.

Here's how the players involved have fared thus far:

Detroit: Added LHS Jarrod Washburn (right) from Seattle. With the Tigers, he's 1-2 in six starts, ERA of 6.81. The Tigers have managed to win four of the six starts. Run support is wonderful.

Minnesota: SS Orlando Cabrera came from Oakland before the deadline; RSH Carl Pavano came in a waiver deal form Cleveland shortly after.

Cabrera is hitting .259 with a .289 on-base percentage since joining the Twins; he ended Monday game with one hit in his last 14 at-bats. As was said here when the Twins traded for him, he really doesn't belong at the top of the order.

Pavano has made five starts for the Twins, going 2-2 with a 4.06 ERA. The Twins won three of those five starts, scoring an average of 10 runs in the three.

Chicago: RHS Jake Peavy OKd leaving San Diego literally seconds before the deadline. The Sox then landed OF Alex Rios from Toronto on waivers in August.

Peavy was injured at the time of the trade and has yet to throw a major league pitch for the White Sox; his rehab assignment was extended when he took a liner off his pitching elbow. The Chicago Tribune reported late Monday that the Sox didn't yet know when he would try to pitch again.

Rios has played in 15 games with the Sox, going 10 for 56, a dismal .179 batting average.

What's more, picking him up probably put Chciago in a bit of a financial bind. According to USA Today last week, White Sox GM Kenny Williams cleared the Peavy deal and its financial implications with ownership first, but didn't with Rios, because he figured there was no way Toronto would just let the outfielder go. But the Blue Jays were delighted to dump the $59.7 million guaranteed Rios on the White Sox.

Conclusions: None of them are stellar.

The Twins fared better with their pickups, at least in August, but Pavano's wins came with lots of run support; the Twins probably would have won those games without him. Cabrera isn't helping the lineup in the No. 2 slot.

Detroit's not getting much out of Washburn other than innings; again, the wins came because the bats came alive.

The White Sox would have been better off sitting on their hands — certainly so far, but perhaps over the long run, considering how much money they now have tied up in Peavy and Rios.

More on the trading deadline

This blog's readers poll points to the middle infield as the biggest weakness on the Twins.

My belief all season has been, and remains, that it's the bullpen depth.

Friday's 11th inning meltdown (six runs) underlines that belief.

Bobby Keppel: A leadoff four-pitch walk, two singles, no outs. Gone.

Jesse Crain: Three singles, one walk, no outs. Gone.

R.A. Dickey: A single, then — finally — three outs.

The first two guys are the top alternatives to Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier, who have been quite good this year but are in danger of being overworked.

I don't have a serious argument with the Orlando Cabrera trade; obviously, the middle infielders (Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, even Brendan Harris) haven't hit.

But I have more confidence in Punto and Casilla than in Keppel and Crain.

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The Twins weren't the only AL Central contender wheeling and dealing Friday before the nonwaiver trade deadline.

Detroit traded for Jarrod Washburn (above); the White Sox finally got Jake Peavy.

The Washburn trade doesn't strike me as much of an upgrade for the Tigers. They gave up Luke French , like Washburn a left-handed flyball pitcher, and a minor leaguer who didn't figure to be a factor for Detroit this year.

Washburn, unlike French, has a track record. He's racked up far better numbers this season than in recent years (2.64 ERA). Washburn has been aided considerably this year by the Seattle outfield defense, which frequently features three legit center fielders. The Detroit stadium is just as spacious as Seattle's, but the Tigers' outfield speed, especially in the corners, don't compare.

The Twins were hot for Washburn last year, a notion that struck me then as borderline insanity. He's been far more effective this year, but even if he maintains his current success, I won't criticize the Twins for staying away this summer.

The Peavy trade may not do anything to help the Chisox this year. The former NL Cy Young Award winner has been on the DL since early June with a strained tendon in his foot; before the trade, his agent said there was no timeline for his return. Now Peavy is talking about being ready by the end of August.

Meanwhile, the White Sox lose a piece of their current starting rotation in Clayton Richard. And a first-rate pitching prospect in Aaron Poreda.

And Peavy has benefited mightily from pitching in a very pitcher-friendly home park in San Diego. Last season, for example, he had a home ERA of 1.75 and a road ERA of 4.28. Now he's going to have a launching pad for a home park.