The Cubs bullpen

Aroldis Chapman may have the fastest pitch in
major league history. 

A big deal went down Monday: The Yankees shipped fireballing closer Aroldis Chapman to the Cubs for a rather impressive package of prospects. I don't much care for what we know of Chapman the human being, and this piece from the Chicago Tribune's David Haugh defines the uneasiness that should accompany rooting for Chapman. (He only details one incident, but there have been others.)

But as far as the Cubs are concerned, Chapman really only has to behave himself for three months or so. Then he becomes a free agent. The Cubs are willing to overlook his character flaws in pursuit of their first World Series title since 1908 and their first World Series appearance since 1945.

But then there's this:

The Cubs are 55-1 going into the 9th with lead, 53-1 going into 8th, 53-5 into 7th.  The upside for *any* reliever add is limited.

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) July 25, 2016

The Cubs have fallen off their early-season pace not because of its lack of stars in the bullpen but for other reasons. Example: Ace Jake Arrieta allowed four runs in six innings Monday night; it was the fourth time in five starts he's allowed that many runs. His ERA has risen from 1.74 to 2.76 in that span.

Still, it's the bullpen that the Cubs are aiming to beef up. Chapman is the second lefty reliever the Cubs have traded for -- they got Mike Montgomery from the Mariners for a couple of prospects last week.

And Old Friend Joe Nathan, back from another Tommy John surgery, made his first appearance of the year Sunday and struck out the side against Milwaukee. Nothing's certain about Nathan, of course; he's 41 and there's a lot of mileage on his arm. But if he is sound again ... well, he and Chapman and Hector Rondon (1.95 ERA with 18 saves) look like a pretty darn impressive crew for the late innings.

If Nathan is sound. If Chapman behaves himself, If, if, if.

Notes, quotes and comment

Korean import Byung Ho Park
strikes a pose during Media Day
on Tuesday at the Twins
spring training complex.

I'm in Fort Myers now despite multiple brain cramps en route, and I'll be at JetBlue Park, the "Fenway South" home of the Red Sox, for the Twins' exhibition opener today. I've not been there on my previous trips to southwest Florida, and I'm looking forward to it.

The lineup the Twins are bringing to the crosstown contest features players I'm particularly interested in seeing: Byron Buxton in center, Miguel Sano in right, Byung Ho Park at DH, John Ryan Murphy behind the plate. These are four guys the Twins really need to see come through. On the noumd, it's Phil Hughes starting with Trevor May "piggybacking."

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Aroldis Chapman, star reliever now with the New York Yankees, got a 30-game suspension out of his domestic incident case. That's not long enough to keep him from free agency after the season, but it's also shorter than a PED suspension. Craig Calcaterra reasonably suggests that this was effectively a plea bargain, especially considering that Chapman agreed not to appeal the ruling.

So a precedent of sorts is set. Nobody was injured and there were no charges filed in the Chapman incident, but he did fire a gun. We'll see what happens in other cases, including the pending Jose Reyes case involving the Colorado shortstop.

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The Kansas City Royals signed Salvador Perez to a contract extension through 2021. I wonder if the Royals will ease up on their use of him now that they're committed to him for another five years.

Chapman and the new domestic violence policy

Last summer the players union and the commissioners office agreed on a domestic violence policy that gives the commissioner a great deal of latitude in suspending a player (and sets up an appeals process with an independent arbitrator.) Three cases have emerged this offseason at initial tests of the new policy, involving Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers, Jose Reyes of the Rockies and Aroldis Chapman, now of the Yankees.

The Chapman case may present the biggest challenge to the new system because it

• is, along with Reyes and Puig, going to set a precedent; 
• includes a significant escalating factor (eight shots fired in an unoccupied garage) and 
• comes at a crucial point in Chapman's service time. 

As detailed here by Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe, a suspension of more than 40 games will push back Chapman's eligibility for free agency a year, giving the Yankees control of his contract in 2017; a suspension of less than 50 games will effectively deem Chapman's misadventure less serious than steroid use.

That it's the Yankees with Chapman now and not the Cincinnati Reds further heightens the scrutiny on Rob Manfred. Just as there were suspicions that the Alex Rodriguez suspension was handled in a manner calculated to please the Yankee ownership, which wanted out from A-Rod's contract, there are suspicions that Chapman's case will be handled in the Yankees favor.

And what would that be? A suspension between 40 and 50 games -- long enough to bind baseball's hardest throwing (and perhaps most effective) relief pitcher to the Yankees for one more season, short enough to have him available for more than two-thirds of the season.

The slight return the Reds got in the Chapman trade suggests that most teams decided they didn't want the star's behavioral baggage. I also suspect most teams don't want to see the Yankees effectively rewarded for embracing him.

On the Aroldis Chapman trade

Aroldis Chapman struck out 116 batters in 66.1 innings
in 2015 for the Reds. He'll pitch -- if he's not suspended
-- for the Yankees in 2016.

Aroldis Chapman's fastball is the stuff of legend. Example: Last season the Cuban lefty fired 452 pitches clocked at 100 mph or more; the next highest was Kelvin Herrera of the Kansas City Royals with 143.

Even in an era of big radar gun numbers, Chapman's velocity is astounding. Nobody brings the heat like Chapman,

On Monday the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds traded Chapman to the New York Yankees for four comparatively unimpressive minor leaguers: right-handers Caleb Cotham and Rookie Davis and infielders Eric Jagielo and Tony Renda. None were considered to be among the Yankees' top prospects, although Jagielo did make the Eastern League (Double A) all-star team last year.

The reason, of course, is the domestic violence investigation(s) involving Chapman from an Oct. 30 incident in Davie, Florida, in which it is established he fired eight shots into a garage wall. It's not the first eyebrow-raising incident involving Chapman and a woman; in 2012 a stripper was found bound in Chapman's Pittsburgh hotel room while Chapman was at the stadium. She was charged with filing a false police report; I have no idea how that all was resolved. 

Chapman may or may not be charged in the Florida incident. He may or may not be suspended by MLB under its new domestic abuse policy. I don't really care. I won't criticize the Twins for not pursuing a rare talent who fires a gun during an argument. There's enough smoke around Chapman's fire to decide to avoid him.

Aroldis Chapman and the draft

Aroldis Chapman (left), a 21-year-old lefty who defected from Cuba last year with a mid-90s fastball, uncertain command and supposed "makeup" issues, signed today with Cincinnati.

The Twins were among the 15 organizations who attended a bullpen session last month, but if they were a factor in the negotiations, it was quietly. Which is possible; the Reds' successful pursuit wasn't trumpeted on the Internet.

There are a lot of aspects to this signing that I could get into, but the one I'm going to is this:

Stephen Strasburg, the top pick in last summer's draft, wound up signing for $15 million with Washington. Chapman's deal is for a total of $30.25 million, although Cincy will be paying some of that four years after the contract itself expires.

The difference, of course, is that Strasburg was subject to the draft, Chapman was not.

The draft now covers the United States, its territories, and Canada. Players from the rest of the world are not covered.

Bud Selig wants a worldwide draft, but it figures to be a self-defeating notion.

Teams today get a lot of talent out of the Dominican Republic — because they're provided the athletic infrastructure, in the form of academies, to develop that talent. Teams aren't going to spend money to develop players for somebody else to draft. That's what happened in Puerto Rico: Once the island was covered by the draft, the talent dried up.

The mlb.com link above wrestles with the difficult mechanics of a worldwide draft, but as far as I'm concerned that's secondary to the damage to the talent pool it would bring.

The real question ought to be: Should there be an amateur draft at all?

The argument for it is that without one, the rich organizations would sign all the young talent. But in the decades since the draft began (1965), something major happened: Free agency.

The Yankees and Red Sox are spending their money chasing veterans. Neither appears to have been a serious suitor for Chapman. The team that ponied up for this unproven talent was a small market club.

From La Velle Neal's blog today:

I also agree with a fellow scribe’s tweet that Scott Boras must be seething that Chapman can get $30 million as a free agent while Stephen Strasburg could get only $15 million because he was drafted. But this also is another example of why the draft needs to survive.

I don't know how it shows that at all. It might if the Yankees had blown everybody out of the water. But the biggest-dollar signings out of the Dominican the last couple of years have come from the Twins (Miguel Sano) and the Athletics (Michel Inoa).

Wipe out the draft, and what will happen? Players like Strasburg probably would get bigger contracts — I doubt any pro scout thinks Chapman is twice as valuable a property as Strasburg — but many others might find their clout diminish. It's difficult for a bad team to walk away from a first-round pick making an exorbitant demand; there's a commitment made to that player by the very act of selecting him.