The negative as a positive

The Twins got exactly what they bargained for/expected from the players' free-agent arbitration deadline: Nothing. Three noes. All negative, which is a good thing.

It remains possible for the Twins to sign any of the three players who declined arbitration Tuesday (Jesse Crain, Orlando Hudson and Carl Pavano) -- or, for that matter, their other seven free agents to whom the organization did not offer arbitration. Possible but unlikely: the Twins are not believed to have interest in bringing Hudson back, even on a one-year deal, and Pavano and Crain have no shortage of suitors.

The 'stache may not be
trash, but the
Twins should allow
Carl Pavano to sign
elsewhere. 

Me, I don't expect (or want) Pavano back, certainly not on a three-year deal. I'd rather give the scouting department the extra draft picks to play with. Crain is looking for a chance to close and a chance to cash in; I can see him and the Twins reuniting later this winter if things don't fall the way he hopes, but really -- middle relievers are highly replaceable, and good organizations shouldn't be paying three relief pitchers upwards of $6 million each.

Bottom line: If the Twins keep any of those three, it will be on terms the Twins are willing to live with, and if they don't, they get extra draft picks.

Thursday is a deadline with perhaps more intrigue. That's tender day, the day when teams must offer contracts to their non-free agent players. For those players who aren't arbitration eligible, that's a simple matter; they get basically the minimum. It can be a tougher call on the likes of J.J. Hardy and Glen Perkins, but the Twins aren't likely to cut any of their arbitration-eligibles loose.

Hardy in particular. Even if the Twins aren't as enamored with him as the statheads are. the shortstop market is ... let's call it trade friendly. Miguel Tejada signed Tuesday with San Francisco for one year, $6.5 million; that's roughly what Hardy is projected to receive through arbitration, and Tejada isn't as good right now as Hardy. If only as a sign-and-trade, Hardy figures to still have value for the Twins.

Something that ain't gonna happen

But it's worth a chuckle anyway.

(And if it did, I think Denard Span would give up his number for this guy. He wouldn't need Pat Neshek's.

Jon Garland gets no respect

Compare these two pitchers:

Pitcher A: 14-12, 200 innings, 3.47 ERA
Pitcher B: 17-11, 221 innings, 3.75 ERA

Of course, there's more to the numbers. Player A had unimpressive component stats in 2010— but always does. He's also 30 and has a truly impressively consistent nine-year record — every year he makes 32 starts, pitches about 200 innings, wins 10-plus games. Everything about his stats says he's mediocre; somehow he adds up to more than mediocre.

Jon Garland is the definition of innings eater. 

Pitcher B is five years older and, while he's been healthy the past two seasons, has a frightening injury history. He has just four seasons of 30-plus starts on his resume, four seasons of 200-plus innings (and that's including a season in which he gets there by counting a postseason start).

Pitcher A, despite being much younger, has pitched more than 300 more innings than Pitcher B with 30 more decisions. Their career ERAs are almost identical—4.32 for Pitcher A, 4.34 for Pitcher B

Pitcher A is Jon Garland, who on Sunday signed with the Dodgers for one year, $5 million (with incentives-based bonuses and 2012 option).

Pitcher B is Carl Pavano, who remains a free agent and is about as hotly pursued this offseason as any pitcher can be without the Yankees involved. Somebody is going to give him at least three years — and twice as much guaranteed money a year.

Seems to me that the wrong guy is getting the big contract. Not that I would turn down $5 million myself.

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The Twins signed a 17-year-old Dominican shortstop prospect, although Javier Pimentel is a growing boy and may, as they say, outgrow the position. Whether he's a shortstop or some other position, it'll be a while before we know if the $575,000 was wisely spent.

Reading too much into an Adidas ad

We have a bit to wait for the next domino to fall in the Twins middle infield situation (that being Orlando Hudson's decision on the Twins' arbitration offer).

Meanwhile, I've become fascinated with this Japanese ad (w/ English subtitles) featuring possible/probable Twins infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, which raises some questions, mostly meaningless:

• Does his stated desire to be recognized (as the subtitle puts it) as the "best short stop player in the world" imply that he might resist moving to second base?
• He appears to be quite attached to his uniform number, but No. 7 is already taken with the Twins.
• And, finally, is the art thing real or an ad fabrication?

Notes, quotes and comment

Justin Morneau says he has no doubts about his availability for spring training. Not that he's ready to roll now; autographs yes, baseball, not quite:

It's encouraging. Two months ago, I couldn't have come out and sat that long and signed, so it's come a long ways. It's not all the way better yet, but it's close.

Obviously the early October talk about maybe having him for the World Series was overly optimistic. On multiple levels.

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From Phil (Consider the Source) Rogers of the Chicago Tribune:

Tuesday is the deadline for the 35 players ... offered arbitration to accept those offers. Only a few are likely to do so. Among those believed to be considering the offers are Juan Uribe Giants), Orlando Hudson (Twins) and Miguel Olivo (Blue Jays). …

The Hudson notion contradicts the conventional speculation -- I won't elevate it to the status of conventional wisdom -- that he and the Twins have a gentleman's agreement that he'll decline. I don't profess to have any actual knowledge, but I expect him to decline, if only because the Twins have made it clear they don't really want him back. As a free agent, he has considerable control on where he plays in 2011; if he accepts arbitration, he has none.

Speaking of Rogers, I thought his notion last week about  of trading Chicago general managers was bizzare, but he was apparently just warming up. This Sunday's column is landing places for Derek Jeter, and it takes some fevered imagination.

Like this sample:

Twins: Because the Twins can't beat Jeter, maybe they can sign him. The Twins aren't crazy about J.J. Hardy, which is why they have negotiated for the rights to talk contract with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the .346-hitting shortstop of the Chiba Lotte Marines, and have had preliminary talks with the Red Sox about (Marco) Scutaro. Adding a guy with Jeter's presence could be the equivalent of adding a front-line starter, which is the piece that has seemed lacking.

Oh boy.

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Poll stuff: We had 48 participants in the "who will sign Cliff Lee" poll.

Thirty-eight (79 percent) say the Yankees; eight (16 percent) say Texas; two (4 percent) say someone else.

New poll up.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka and a middle infield in flux

Tsuyoshi Nishioka spent much of his career in Japan's
Pacific League playing for former Mets and Rangers
manager Bobby Valentine, who speaks highly of him.

It would appear that this copy editor/blogger will need to learn to spell Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

The Twins on Friday were awarded the negotiation rights to Nishioka, a switch-hitting middle infielder who won the Pacific League batting championship in 2010 by hitting .346 for the Chiba Lotte Marines. Minnesota now has 30 days to reach a contract agreement with the 26-year-old.

So ... let's review the Twins' middle infield situation, in order of the pending deadlines for each candidate.

Orlando Hudson, the incumbent second baseman, is a Type B free agent. The Twins earlier this week offered him arbitration, a move likely intended to secure a compensation draft pick next summer. Hudson is expected to decline arbitration. The deadline for the O-Dog to decide is Tuesday.

J.J. Hardy, the incumbent shortstop, was rumored in the immediate wake of the season to be a non-tender candidate, but now the buzz is that the Twins won't cut him loose. The deadline to tender a contract is Thursday, Dec. 2.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka is a blank slate to most of us American fans. It's worth noting that Kaz Matsui, the only Japanese middle infielder to come stateside, never lived up to his advance billing.  Matsui had better numbers in Japan, and more glowing scouting reports. Published scouting reports doubt that Nishioka has enough arm to play shortstop in the U.S. majors, and it's worth noting that he was just a career .280 hitter in Japan before his 2010 breakout. He has displayed little power in Japan, and most Japanese hitters lose power when they play in the American majors.

Maybe the 2010 season wasn't a fluke. Or maybe he's simply Nick Punto without the throwing arm. I respect the Twins scouting acumen, and they have put up several million that say Nishioka's a good major league player. I'm skeptical, but all I've seen of him is this video.

But he doesn't have to be a star. Nishioka's clearly faster than Hudson or Hardy, and if he can play second base well, fill the second slot in the batting order and hit .280, he'll help. 

Winning the rights to sign him and signing him are two different things, but most Japanese players who go through the posting process sign. The rule of thumb has been that the posting fee and the total contract are about even, but the winning bid was somewhere around $5 million-$5.3 million, and I don't see him headed out of his comfort zone for a package that low. Still, he's likely to come cheaper than either incumbent.

Alexi Casilla, incumbent reserve, had been touted this offseason as a potential low-price starter in 2011. He may still fit in that role: If Hudson walks and the Twins sign Nishioka and trade Hardy, they suddenly have two speedy switch-hitting middle infielders and a spring-training decision to make. Who's the shortstop and who's the second baseman?

Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto: Tolbert is out of options, Punto is a free agent. If the Twins wind up going with Hardy at short and Nishioka at second, Casilla is the primary reserve and Punto is a goner. If they go with Nishioka and Casilla as the middle infield, I think Gardenhire will want Punto as a security blanket. Nishioka and Casilla represent two question marks in the middle infield; for a contender, that's at least one too many.

T-S-U-Y-O-S-H-I N-I-S-H-I-O-K-A. Hey, I learned to spell (Doug) Mientkiewicz and (A.J.) Pierzynski. I ought to be able to master this.

Contemplating Derek Jeter, Part III

Derek Jeter has played 2,274 games at shortstop in his illustrious career, exactly zero at any other position.

Jeter is now fifth on the all-time list of games at short -- more than 400 behind the still-active Omar Vizquel, but closing in on Cal Ripken for fourth.

If he's not a shortstop,
where would he play?

Eighteen men have played more than 2,000 career games at the position. It's a demanding position, and as a historical rule, only the very best glovemen stay there throughout their careers. Ripken moved to third base late in his career, and Rabbit Maranville racked up more than 500 games at second base, most of them in his 40s. Luis Aparicio and Ozzie Smith never played another defensive position, and as a general thing, the great defensive shortstops can stay there even after having lost a step or two.

If Jeter has not been the worst fielder of the 18 (relative to his time), he's mighty close to it. And if he has not been the greatest hitter in the group, he's mighty close to that status too.

One of the underlying issues in the Yankees-Jeter contract standoff is: How long can the Yankees keep him at shortstop? And where else could they play him?

First base is out of the question; Mark Teixiera has six more years to go on his contract. Third base? Alex Rodriguez's money sinkhole doesn't close until 2018. Second base is still the middle infield, and anyway, Robinson Cano is there. That leaves the outfield.

Assuming that Jeter's ego will allow him to change positions. The Yankees management is too sharp to take five Gold Gloves as proof of defensive prowess; Jeter may see the big ugly trophies as proof positive.

If this report -- that Jeter is demanding a six-year deal at $25 million a year -- is accurate, his ego is badly inflamed. The Yankees are in the uncomfortable position now of cutting a reality check on the financial issue, and even after that's over, will have to cut another on the baseball issue.