A Twins fan's thankful twelve

The Yankees won 103 games last year, which means they LOST 59 times. Joe Mauer hit .365, which means he made outs in 63.5 percent of his at-bats. You can always find something to gripe about, and I do so too often.

But today is Thanksgiving, and a day to be grateful for the good things we have. I could make a list trite and profound of such things in my life, but this is a baseball blog, so I'll stick to the diamond.

Twelve things for which this Twins fan gives thanks:

1. That I get to watch Joe Mauer play on a daily basis.
2. That everybody involved is making reassuring noises about Mauer's future in Minnesota.
3. For 28 years of knowing tonight's game won't be rained out.
4. For a future of fresh air and real grass.
5. For Denard Span's consistently professional at-bats.
6. For Michael Cuddyer's willingness to vacate his preferred position for the sake of the team.
7. For Ozzie Guillen, who drew the venom from the Twins-White Sox rivalry without losing the competitiveness.
8. For the energy and enthusiasm Carlos Gomez brought to the ball park every day the past two seasons.
9. That the Twins were able to exchange Go-Go's unopened tool box for a quality shortstop.
10. That the Twins' best player doesn't get stinkin' drunk during a crucial series.
11. That Justin Morneau and Pat Neshek sound good to go.
12. That spring training is just 87 days away.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Thanks for reading.

Around the division: White Sox

The White Sox so far this offseason have had a theme, and that theme is infielders.

They have:

• Traded two players handed infield jobs at the start of 2009 — Chris Getz (second base) and Josh Fields (third base) to Kansas City for veteran Mark Teahen. Teahen is to be their third baseman.
• Said Gordon Beckham, who dislodged Fields and emerged as one of the American League's better rookies, would play second base.
• Signed Omar Vizquel (photo above) to be a reserve infielder and mentor to incumbent shortstop Alexei Ramirez.

Taking them one at a time:

Off his track record with the Royals, Teahen is exactly the kind of guy Twins fans should want the White Sox to accumulate. He was not a particularly productive hitter for Kansas City, and he's not a sensational fielder either.

But ... I haven't given up on him as a hitter, and it may be he'll blossom. The White Sox' stadium is much more hitter friendly than the Kansas City park, and the Royals the past few years have shuttled Teahen from position to position.

Beckham sounded OK with moving to second base, although the general feeling is that he'd rather be the shortstop, the position he played as an amateur. And there's no shortage of people outside the Sox camp who think he should get that chance, Ramirez having had a rough season with the glove at short last year.

But even in his shortstop days, Beckham was viewed as a guy who would play his way off short sooner or later. "Alexei's better than Gordon at short," was GM Kenny Williams's six-word answer to the question of why not Beckham at short and Ramirez back at second, where he played in 2008.

Which is where Vizquel comes in, at least in theory. The 11-time Gold Glover spent last season playing a similar infield reserve role with the Texas Rangers — where part of his job was mentoring rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus.

It might be a good cop-bad cop routine for Ramirez, with manager Ozzie Guillen (himself no slouch of a shortstop glove) continuing to ride Ramirez hard and Vizquel patting him on the back.

More thoughts about Mauer, catchers and the MVP

It is an unofficial part of the BBWAA's voting process for the awards, at least the major ones — somebody who casts a vote that leaves the rest of the baseball world puzzled writes a piece explaining/defending the vote.

Let us hope that Kezio Konishi writes such a piece — and that it's readable by those of us who don't read Japanese.

Konishi writes for Kyodo News in Japan, and he covers the Mariners — or perhaps what he covers is Ichiro Suzuki. In the rotation system the BBWAA uses to determine who votes for the awards, he was one of the two votes allotted to the Seattle chapter — and he cast his vote for Miguel Cabrera.

Now, I said this Tuesday: I'm not upset that Mauer didn't win a unanimous vote. He missed all of April, and if someone insists that a full season of Derek Jeter or Mark Teixeira is worth more to his team than five months of Mauer, I won't agree but I'm not going to write the guy off as hopeless.

But Cabrera? His bulk power numbers aren't much better than Mauer's ( 34 HR MC, 28 JM; 103 RBI MC, 98 JM); there's a difference in defensive value between a quality catcher and an OK first baseman; and, of course, Mauer didn't get stone drunk with the division title on the line.

This was just a stupid vote.

Konishi, you got some 'splaning to do.

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Mauer is the sixth catcher to win an MVP award; it's the eighth to go to a catcher, Yogi Berra having won three of them.

The list: Mickey Cochrane, 1934; Berra in 1951, 1954 and 1955; Elston Howard in 1963; Thurman Munson in 1976; Ivan Rodriguez in 1999; and now Mauer.

Interesting list. Cochrane and Berra are in the Hall of Fame, of course; Rodriguez, still active, figures to join them. Those three are among the handful of players with a claim to the title of greatest catcher ever.

Howard and Munson aren't on that level. Howard might have been, but he was stuck behind Berra for about a third of his career — Howard's rookie season was Berra's third MVP year. He was the Yankees' first black player (Casey Stengel supposedly grumbled: "They finally get me one, and they get me the only one who can't run") and the first black to win the AL MVP Award.

I suspect that had Howard come up with another team, he'd be a Hall of Famer.

Munson is another matter. He died at age 32 — he was piloting a small plane in midseason 1979 and crashed — but, as Bill James has noted, his career was in a downhill spiral. He was having back problems — one of the banes of catchers — and his power had largely dried up. He'd have played longer had he lived — but the quality of that play was not going to be up to the standard he had set. And that quality wasn't truly as high as that of Berra, Cochrane, Rodriguez or Howard.

And now Mauer.

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Which raises the point that the Yankees' many dynasties have been largely built on great outfielders (Ruth, DiMaggio, Mantle, Jackson) and great catchers (Schang, Dickey, Berra, Howard, Munson, Posada).

A quick ranking of Yankees catchers:

1) Berra.

2) Bill Dickey. A .313 lifetime average, albeit in a hitting-rich era. Quietly platooned for years. Credited with teaching Berra to catch.

3) Jorge Posada. Never a great glove behind the dish and getting worse with age, but a quality switch-hitter. Should have gotten more MVP consideration in 2003; he finished third (behind Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Delgado).

4) Howard. Could rank ahead of Posada, but Jorge has had more good years and more playing time.

5) Wally Schang. Why this man isn't in Cooperstown in a befuddlement. Caught for the A's in the final years of the $100,000 infield dynasty; two pennants there. Traded to Boston for the last season of that dynasty; total of three pennants, two World Series wins. Traded to the Yankees for the start of the first Ruth dynasty; three more pennants and another World Series win — that's six and two. Moved on again to the Browns, who didn't win, and then back to the A's where he backed up Cochrane for another pennant and World Series title. All told, seven pennants, three World Series titles.

And a productive switch-hitter to boot with a lifetime OBP of .393.

6) Munson.

Pretty rich crop there, made all the more impressive by the fact that of the bunch only Schang spent a significant part of his career elsewhere.

M(auer)VP

Well, it wasn't unanimous, but it was darn close.

I had figured that there would be a first-place vote or two for somebody else simply on the basis that Joe Mauer missed the first month of the season. That that vote went to Miguel Cabrera rather than one of the Yankees duo of Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira — that was a surprise.

Mauer's been the best player the the American League three of the past four seasons; this BBWAA vote is just catching up to that reality. They've had some help in maintaining their ignorance — people in and around the Twins organization have fed the writers' fascination with RBIs — and I also believe that the writers were waiting for a power surge. Had they given him the MVP with 13 homers in 2006, they'd have a difficult time not giving it to him when he had a big power year.

I fully expect a fresh wave of speculation to begin about Mauer and his contract status. My view is that this award doesn't change anything. I don't see Mauer and his agent, Ron Shapiro, using the trophy as a club.

There's been speculation about the status of talks. I suspect that speculation will continue right up to the press conference to announce a signing. The Twins are pretty close-lipped about contract talks, and Shapiro, unlike Scott Boras, isn't a self-serving leaker.

But one thing that should be noted is that the Twins have taken pains in recent weeks to say they're comfortable with going into Mauer's walk year without a contract. They weren't willing to do that with Santana, because Santana and his agent essentially told the Twins he wasn't going to re-sign; he wanted the bigger stage.

Mauer's only leaving if he decides he wants to leave. I see no reason to think that's the case.

Poll results

The predict-Mauer's-MVP-margin poll has closed, and we had a new record for participants (meaning, I think, that the new widget on the Free Press home page is drawing more readers).

The results: Seven (15 percent) said Mauer will get all the first-place votes; 21 (47 percent) said he'll win easily; 12 (27 percent) said he'll prevail in a close vote; and four (9 percent) said someone else will win.

For what it's worth, here's the prediction of Tyler Kepner:

The intrigue of the baseball awards is over now, because the only question about the M.V.P. awards to be announced next week is whether Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols will be unanimous. I’m guessing they will.

That's significant — to me at least — because Kepner's the New York Times guy who tweeted last summer after Mark Teixeira hit a late game-winning homer in Seattle that Teixeira had just wrapped up the MVP.

We'll find out (about Mauer) on Monday.

New poll up.

Thoughts on stealing home

May 18:

... Billy Martin, the Minnesota manager ... had two guys steal home — first Cesar Tovar, then Rod Carew — the first and second times in my career anyone had stolen home on me.

Both time (Mickey) Lolich took a big windup, and after the game, when a couple of reporters asked me, "How come you didn't get those guys?" I said, "Well, sir, there's not a helluva lot I can do without the ball."

Bill Freehan in his diary of the 1969 season, Behind the Mask

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Chris Jaffe, in this excerpt from a soon-to-be-published book on managers, details the manic steals of home recorded by the Twins early in the 1969 season. He describes the steals as risky, low-percentage plays that Martin ceased after establishing a psychological advantage over the other teams in the American League.

I, on the other hand, believe that:

• There are times when the steal of home is a better percentage play than the alternatives. Those moments are not commonplace, but they arise more frequently than the play is attempted.
• The Twins would have continued to steal home frequently under Martin had opposing pitchers continued to employ the full windup with Carew or Tovar on third base.
• That rash of steals of home in 1969 changed that detail of pitching, a change that persists today.

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I have witnessed in person one straight steal of home. April 14, 1992, third inning, Paul Molitor on John Smiley.

It was, in retrospect, a perfect storm for a steal of home. A left-handed pitcher (meaning that his back was to the runner) with a slow delivery (my memory, which may be faulty on this detail, says Smiley used a full windup on the pitch) on the mound, with one of the most skilled baserunners of his generation spotting the opportunity.

It was still startling.

The play was not close. Even from the center field seats, it was obvious that Molitor had beaten the pitch to the plate.

As with Freehan 23 years earlier, there was nothing Brian Harper could do without the ball.

The batter on the play? Robin Yount.

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The baserunning risk in the steal of home is obvious. Even for an outstanding catcher — a Pudge Rodriguez or Johnny Bench — it takes a bit more than a full second for the catcher to receive the pitch and get the ball to second base. That "pop time" — the space between the pop of the ball in the catcher mitt and the pop of the throw reaching the infielder's glove — is zero in a steal of home.

That disadvantage, in early 1969, was nullified by the fact that most pitchers used a full windup with a man on third (unless a man was also on first and second base was unoccupied). In addition — and this is a detail of the game that has shifted markedly in the intervening decades — windups have become more streamlined.

Pitchers in 1969 had leg kicks like this. OK, Juan Marichal was pretty unique. Jim Palmer also stuck his lead foot up like a Rockette. Nolan Ryan had a high leg kick. Big windups were the rule back then. Not so today. Few of today's pitchers lift their knee to belt-level or raise their hands above their heads. Simpler, less elaborate windups are quicker.

When the Twins made swiping home a matter of routine, it was against pitchers using those complex windups. By June, the league had caught on. Pitchers were routinely pitching out of the stretch with a man on third. The percentages had shifted.

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Early in the 2009 season, Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox stole home against the Yankees and Andy Pettitte. (As with the Molitor steal, a left-handed pitcher with a slow delivery.) Because it was Yankees-Red Sox and because the game was on ESPN (I know, that seems redundant), the play became a brief sensation.

Ron Gardenhire reportedly felt it necessary to explain to Denard Span why Span shouldn't try the play himself. When Span's on third, the hitter is likely to be someone like Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau or Jason Kubel; Gardenhire thinks it's better to let them hit.

But there are times ...

Let's say Span is on third with Kubel up, two outs, and Pettitte is pitching with a full windup.

Kubel's batting average against left-handed pitchers over the past three seasons is .238. That's the relevant number, because he's not plating Span with a fly ball or ground out. If there's a 33 percent chance that Span can steal home successfully, that's the better percentage play. If.

Here's another example, dredged from my memory bank.

There was a game in 2001, Twins at Boston, with Hideo Nomo pitching for the Red Sox. Checking Rotosheet, it had to have been April 26. Nomo was essentially a two-pitch pitcher — he had a fast ball that he generally threw up in the zone, and he had a wicked splitter that he threw in the dirt to get swinging strikes.

I remember three specific pitches during two different at-bats with Matt Lawton on third base and two outs, thinking: He's going to throw the splitter in the dirt. Give the batter the take sign and have Lawton steal.

My notion was that catcher Jason Varitek would have to make a clean scoop of the pitch in order to make the tag. Nomo, even from the stretch, had a notoriously slow delivery. And, finally, Nomo had the Twins hitters buffaloed.

The Twins, of course, did not attempt such a brazen play. Each of the three pitches was indeed a splitter in the dirt; on each pitch, Varitek merely blocked and smothered the ball.

It might have worked. Or maybe not. The at-bats involved left-handed hitters (one hitter, really, Doug Mientkiewicz), so Varitek would have easily seen Lawton coming; Nomo, a right-hander, might have seen Lawton start in time to change his pitch. Lawton was no Molitor in baserunning technique.

What I do know: Lawton reached third twice that night but never scored, and the Twins lost 2-0.

I'm convinced, in my own mind, that the steal of home is underused. But I'm also certain that it takes a certain level of managerial arrogance to prove it.

And even Billy Martin — whose managerial arrogance was probably unsurpassed — backed away from the play.

On the fringe of the roster

If you are addicted to SportsCenter, you know already that today is the start of the free agent season.

Which means that today the likes of Carl Pavano, Orlando Cabrera and Mike Redmond officially dropped off the Twins' 40-man roster.

The Twins added six players to the 40-man roster, which (at least for now) protects them from the Rule V draft next month. They're at 40 now, so if they want to take somebody in the Rule V draft — and they usually do — somebody's got to be cleared off it. And, for that matter, if they sign a free agent, somebody's got to be cleared off it.

Here's the press release by the Twins announcing the moves. Here's the current 40-man roster.

Few of the additions have much chance of setting foot in Target Field in 2010. Danny Valencia is in the third-base mix as of now. Rob Delaney, like Valencia, opened 2009 in Double A and was moved up to Triple A; in his case, however, there doesn't appear to be a job sitting there to be taken. Other than those two, the additions are just creeping into Double A.

Loek Van Mil, the 7-1 pitcher from the Netherlands, is the guy I'm pulling for. I have no idea if he's going to be a successful pitcher, if if he makes it to the Show, he'll be the tallest player in major league history.