Contemplating Otis Nixon

Otis Nixon's 1987 baseball card,
when he was 28 and in his fifth
season in the majors.

The news that former big league outfielder Otis Nixon was arrested over the weekend on cocaine charges didn't come as a complete shock. He'd been involved in cocaine before — suspended in 1991 for it — and in February he was the subject of a TV news report that claimed he was scamming the families of prison inmates. It has not been a good year for the now-54-year-old.

Nixon, a very fast switch-hitter with no power, played for seemingly everybody over his 17-year career, and his path had two significant crossings with that of the Twins.

His turn with the Twins came in 1998, when he was 39. It was actually one of his better seasons — he hit .297 with the highest OPS of his career (.705). He stole 37 bases and was caught seven times. It's my vague recollection that he was injured on a kick in the jaw on a play at second base; whatever was the cause, he missed most of May and only appeared in 110 games as a result.

1998 was a pivotal year for the Twins franchise. Look at their roster -- a bunch of old guys looking for another paycheck (Terry Steinbach, Paul Molitor, Nixon, Mike Morgan, Bob Tewksbury); another bunch of veterans who were basically never all that good (Ron Coomer, Marty Cordova, Pat Meares, Brent Gates, Orlando Merced); a handful of youngsters who played less than a dozen games each (Corey Koskie, A.J. Pierzynski, Torii Hunter, Doug Mientkiewicz). They went 70-92 and were, frankly, a bore. It's one thing to be a bad team; it's another to be bad with no future, and that was the 1998 Twins.

After the season, the Pohlads issued a budgetary decree that forced Terry Ryan and Tom Kelly to stop pretending they could compete that way. The Twins went to the kids, and even though the 1999 and 2000 teams lost even more games, they were interesting — and in 2001 they were contenders.

The other significant crossing was indirect. In fact, strictly speaking, Nixon wasn't even there.

He was one of four men splitting time in the Atlanta Braves outfield in 1991, along with Ron Gant, David Justice and Lonnie Smith. He was easily the rangiest of the four outfielders, and also easily the least potent at the plate, although '91 was one of his more productive seasons. But his season ended in mid-September for his cocaine suspension, and the Braves went down the stretch and into the postseason with an outfield of Smith in left, Gant in center and Justice in right.

Smith, although a speedy man, was a terrible defensive outfielder, and for the World Series games in the Metrodome, Bobby Cox used him as the designated hitter and deployed a backup first baseman, Brian Hunter, in left. Certainly had Nixon been available he would have played those Metrodome games.

Twins fans who remember that World Series remember that the winning run in that classic Game 7 was set up by a bloop double to short left-center by Dan Gladden. What if Nixon had been in the Atlanta outfield? Would it have been a double, or even a base hit?

We'll never know.

Mike Pelfrey and the Potential Replacements

Mike Pelfrey struck out seven batters
Sunday, doubling his season total.

Mike Pelfrey had his best start of the still-young season Sunday, and he did so against a Cleveland team that is producing runs with anybody in the league.

He needed that strong outing. He entered the game with an ERA of 7.66, and pitchers with that kind of stat tend to lose their jobs. Even his six-inning, one-run Sunday left him with a 6.35 ERA, and that's not good either.

Pelfrey's potentially shaky status made all the more intriguing the list of starters working Sunday in the Twins minor league system:

• For Triple A Rochester, the starter was Sam Deduno, hero of the World Baseball Classic. 
• For Double A New Britain, it was Alex Meyer, the return in the Denard Span trade and generally regarded as the Twins top pitching prospect
• For high A Fort Myers, it was Cole De Vries, who figured to be in the opening rotation before being injured at the end of spring training. (De Vries is on a rehab assignment.)
• For low A Cedar Rapids, it was J.O. Berrios, the Puerto Rican teenager who is close to Meyer in status.

Berrios isn't going to pitch in the majors this year, but the other three all are real possibilities ... and having them aligned with Pelfrey makes it theoretically easy to flip any of them into his place if and when the Twins pull the plug on the veteran.

For the record:

• Deduno went five innings, allowing one run. Four walks, four strikeouts, 89 pitches, 51 strikes. 
• Meyer was knocked out of the box in the fifth inning, allowing five runs in 4.2 innings.
• De Vires, making his first start since training camp, went just four innings. He allowed six hits and one run and was reportedly hit hard in the final inning.
• Berrios went six innings, allowing two runs and striking out eight (no walks).

Even if the Twins were ready to pull the plug on Pelfrey, none of these guys are ready to step in right now. In a couple of weeks, it will be another story.

Pic of the Week

Korean pop star PSY unleashes his
"Gangnam Style" dance at Dodger
Stadium between innings Wednesday.

What makes this photo outstanding is the look on Tommy Lasorda's face. Yes, that's the Hall of Fame manager and buddy of Frank Sinatra sitting in the aisle seat wondering exactly when the world, or at least music, went to hell.

Matching up with Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee and Cleveland catcher Van Gomes watch
Parmelee's seventh-inning homer head for the right field seats.

Seventh inning Friday night. Cleveland's Justin Masterson has a 5-3 lead and gets the first two Twins hitters out. But then Justin Morneau singles, goes to second on a passed ball, and scores on a Ryan Doumit single.

With the left-handed Chris Parmelee due up, Cleveland manager Terry Francona goes to his bullpen, but not for a LOOGY. He calls on a righty, Cody Allen.

And Parmelee lofts a fly ball that barely sneaks over the right-field wall. Home run, Twins lead 6-5.

The Twins didn't hold that lead, but I'm still intrigued by Francona's choice of relief pitcher. Why did he defy the platoon approach?

Parmelee's career splits might be one factor. He's been a better hitter against left-handed pitchers (.782 on base plus slugging) than against righties (.738) in his brief major league career. But that's just 380 career plate appearances, which is not enough to declare him the rare exception to the platoon rule.

Allen's platoon splits are even more limited — he has just 42.2 career innings — but they carry a hint of "backwards" platoon splits also. Righties have hit .273 off him; lefties .237. Righties have an OBP of .356; lefties, .318.

But ... all four home runs he's allowed have been to left-handed hitters. Right-handers slug .295 off Allen so far, lefties .461.

Francona knows a lot more about Allen than I do, and it's quite likely that Allen has a particular pitch that Francona believes is effective against left-handed hitters. It's also possible that he's just inconsistent enough with that pitch that he's vulnerable to the long ball with it.

Picking a pitcher on that basis makes more sense to me than picking him off the limited statistical evidence available on Parmelee and Allen.

Eighth or leadoff

Aaron Hicks has
two extra-base hits
so far this season.

Aaron Hicks enters tonight's game in Cleveland with nine hits in 75 official at-bats, a .120 batting average. He has drawn 11 walks (while striking out 27 times), which is tied for 30th in the American League but still leaves him with an on-base percentage of .230.

But as bad as those numbers are, they beat the devil out of where the rookie center fielder was after April 13, the last game in the leadoff slot. At that point Hicks had a slash line of .047/.109/.047, and there are few pitchers who hit that poorly. (The average pitcher hits about .130 these days.)

Ten games ago, Ron Gardenhire flip-flopped Hicks and Brian Dozier in the batting order. Hicks dropped to the eighth slot, Dozier to the leadoff slot.

In the 10 games since he was dropped to the bottom of the order, Hicks' slash line is .214/.361/.250 -- still  poor batting average, still little power, but a fine on-base percentage. He has in that period six hits, seven walks and one hit-by-pitch and has reached base at least once each game. He also has more walks than strikeouts.

Brian Dozier is
hitting .227/.277./.293
for the season.

Better, but hardly ideal. The improved walk/strikeout rate is a reed to cling to, but the batting average and slugging percentage remain well south of acceptable. Hicks may be turning the corner on his rough start, but he hasn't completed the turnaround.

Dozier has also improved since the switch. In 10 games as the No. 8 hitter, Dozier hit .152/.237/.212. In 10 games as the leadoff man, he's at .286/.311/.357 -- which isn't going to get him on any All-Star teams, but is good enough to stick with the current program.

I fully expect that if and when Hicks starts contributing more at the plate than a few walks, he'll return to the leadoff job. I saw establishing Hicks as the center fielder and leadoff hitter as one of the Twins primary goals this season, and I don't think Dozier is the leadoff man of the future.

Grading the Twins rotation

Scott Diamond shone once more in a day game; for his
short career, his day ERA is 3.32, his night ERA 4.27.

Scott Diamond had his third straight quality start Wednesday, but it was the first time this season he was truly the ground-ball machine of 2012. According to Baseball Reference, he had 13 ground balls and five fly balls Wednesday, bringing him to a 40/35 split for the season.

Diamond's breakout 2012 was all about avoiding walks and getting grounders, so Wednesday was a welcome sign. I'll pick a nit and say I'd like to see him break past six innings next time out; while the bullpen has been very good, the rotation needs to eat more outs.

The Twins have used six starters so far. Vance Worley's had six starts, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey five each, Diamond four, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Hernandez two each.

I classify the starters into three camps:

1) Semi-established: Diamond and Worley. These are the guys I can envision being part of the rotation for the next contending Twins team. Worley's had a difficult go of things so far: 0-4, 7.22 with less than 29 innings in the six starts, and his strikeout rate is down almost two per nine innings.

Indications are that Worley's leash is long, and it ought to be. But he's not doing well.

I'll give Diamond a C for the season so far. Worley has to be earning an F.

2) The disposable veterans: Correia and Pelfrey, the veterans brought in a free agents. I can't argue with Correia's results, even if I doubt he can sustain them. Pelfrey's been brutal. An A for Correia, another F for Pelfrey.

3) The fifth starters: Hendriks and Hernandez. I fully expect the Twins to cycle a number of pitchers through the rotation looking for someone to break through as Diamond did in 2012. Hendriks got the first shot and was quickly supplanted by Hernandez.

I'll give Hendriks a D; he wasn't all that awful in his two starts, but he did get sent down, and unlike last year, he hasn't dominated Triple A upon his return. If and when the Twins swap out another rotation piece, it probably won't be Hendriks getting the call. Cole De Vries and Sam Deduno are more likely (not that either is ready yet).

The left-handed Hernandez has split time between the rotation and long relief since his return, a pattern imposed by the offdays and weather problems, and has put up an ERA of 2.35, which is not to be sneered at. I'll give him a B, but, as with Correia, I don't really expect him to continue at that level.

Here's a key difference between Diamond and Hernandez, at least as far as one can judge Hernandez off 15.1 innings: Hernandez does not appear to be a worm killer. Baseball Reference has him at 20 grounders and 30 fly balls so far.

The state of the Twins bullpen

Rafael Perez has
yet to make a
game appearance
this season.

Rafael Perez, the former Cleveland Indians standout LOOGY now in the Twins organization, did not exercise his May 1 opt-out clause (if not in the majors by May 1, he could declare free agency). So he'll continue what appears to be a lengthy shoulder rehab, and maybe the Twins will eventually get something out his signing.

Even if he were ready to pitch in the majors — and his agreeing to stay with the Twins is a strong indication that he knows he's not — it's not easy to see where he'd fit. Here are the ERAs of the seven bullpen arms on the major league roster

Glen Perkins: 4.15 (allowed runs only in two blowout games, in one case because of a misjudged fly ball)
Jarod Burton: 0.96
Brian Duensing: 2.16
Casey Fien: 4.00 (all four runs allowed came in one bad outing; leads team in appearances)
Josh Roenicke: 1.50
Anthony Swarzak: 1.93
Ryan Pressly: 1.69

Tim Wood followed
five shutout innings
for Triple A Rochester
with a six-run
clunker on April 30.

Those seven have totaled 72 innings, with 65 strikeouts, 25 walks and 55 hits allowed. Combined ERA: 2.25. Only Roenicke has allowed a home run.

There's really nobody there who deserves to lose his job. Which means there's an interesting decision ahead, because Tim Wood, who is out of options, is on his minor league rehab assignment. I believe he can be on that assignment a month, and he's about halfway through that period.

By mid-month, Wood figures to be use-or-lose. Unless somebody in the current bullpen gets hurt or goes south, I don't see a place for him.