Minor league shortstops

Levi Michael as a collegian in 2011. He figures to
repeat high-A -- and to spend the season at shortstop.

The Twins on Wednesday made no announcement about Kevin Correia. (I think they're toying with those of us who think signing him is a mistake, raising our hopes that all those reports early in the week were erroneous.)

They did, however, announce eight minor-league free-agent signings, only three of which came with invites to major league camp. None of those three strike me as particularly likely to see any major league time.

I wanted to take note of Ray Olmedo, however. When the Twins sought to open space on their 40-man roster just before the winter meetings and lost Tommy Field on waivers, I predicted that they'd be in the market for a shortstop for Triple A Rochester. And here he is. Olmedo's 31, and if he spends time in Target Field it will be a very bad sign.

It got me thinking -- again -- about the shortstops in the farm system. I've said this before: The Twins have a lousy track record in developing shortstops, going back to the time the franchise arrived in the Twin Cities. Zoilo Versalles, the Twins original shortstop, was homegrown; the best truly homegrown shortstop since Versalles was probably Danny Thompson, and he had only one true season as a regular.

The Twins' best shortstops since Versalles -- Roy Smalley, Greg Gagne, Cristian Guzman, Jason Bartlett -- all came from some other organization.

If that streak is to be broken, the player is probably lower in the organization. Probably.

Doing a little projecting for the full-season affiliates, from the bottom up:

Cedar Rapids (low-A): Niko Goodrum and Jorge Polanco are likely to move up the ladder from Elizabethton. Goodrum, a second-round pick in 2010, repeated the Appy League, and while his hitting numbers didn't really improve, he did cut his errors almost in half. Polanco, a Domincan signed the same summer as Miguel Sano, spent most of the season at second base and hit well. Goodrum is 20; Polanco is 19. Goodrum may eventually move to the outfield; Polanco could, should that happen, return to shortstop.

Fort Myers (high-A): I rather suspect Levi Michael, the 2011 first-round pick, will repeat the Florida State League. He largely split 2012 between second base and shortstop there, but spent more time at second. Tyler Grimes, who saw the most time at short in low-A in 2012, is apparently going to try catching in 2013; I think Michael will be seeing more shortstop time as a result, especially since Eddie Rosario ought to be getting most of the second base time at this level.

It'll be a key season for Michael; the Twins are reportedly inclined to blame his rough 2012 on the injures he had as a collegian in 2011, but he needs to show something in the coming season. An infield with Rosario, Sano and Michael -- certainly last spring, that was the long-term dream for the Twins. It seems a good bit less likely this offseason than it did last.

New Britain (Double A): Danny Santana moved ahead of Michael in the pecking order with a strong season at Fort Myers and won a spot on the 40-man roster. His walk/strikeout ratio even in a good season (29 walks, 77 strikeouts) doesn't bode well for continuing his 2012 success at higher levels, but he just turned 22 last month. Now entering the upper levels of the farm system.

Rochester (Triple A): Olmedo plus organizational lifers James Beresford and Estarlin de los Santos,either of whom may repeat Double A and/or play second base. Nothing to see here in terms of potential long-term regular shortstops.

Kevin Correia's missing dimension

Kevin Correia has struck out just 4.6 men per nine innings
over the past two seasons, both of which were spent with
the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Twins have still not confirmed (or denied) signing free-agent right-handed starter Kevin Correia, presumably because there are still details to finalize, such as the pitcher passing a physical.

I'll wait until it is actually official, and until Terry Ryan and Co. have given their rationale, to rip the signing. For now: I don't like the idea of signing him, I don't like the reported contract (2 years, $10 million), and I doubt a convincing rationale for it can be made.

But I wanted to take note of a LaVelle Neal tweet of Monday evening, in which the Star Tribune beat writer said Correia's average velocities on his pitches were:

• Fastball: 90.3 mph
• Cutter: 88.1
• Slider: 85.9
• Change-up: 85.9
• Curve: 77

Five pitches, and four of them with less than 5 mph of separation among them. That's not a real change-up, or at least it cannot realistically serve the function of a change-up. It's not different enough from the fastball.

Pitching is an art in four dimensions. The strike zone has width, height and depth (that last a factor ignored by the animated strike-zone graphics displayed during most TV game broadcasts). The fourth dimension is time, the ability of the pitcher to throttle up and down.

Earl Weaver, the great manager of the Baltimore Orioles' glory years, was an early adherent of radar guns. Not because Weaver was fascinated by 95-mph fastballs, but because the guns provided objective evidence of pitch separation. The guns made it possible for Scott McGregor, a lefty with almost no velocity, to develop gaps of about 12 mph between his fast ball, his straight change and his curve -- and that made it possible for McGregor to win at least 13 games in eight consecutive seasons.

Correia lacks that dimension to his craft. And if he hasn't developed it at age 32, I don't know that he's ever going to.

The return of Doug Mientkiewicz

The Twins on Monday announced that Doug Mientkiewicz will manage their high-A team, the Fort Myers Miracle. Last year's manager there, Jake Mauer, will manage the low-A Cedar Rapids Kernels.

Dougie Alphabet isn't new to the Twins, of course; a decade ago he was a defense-first first baseman on the Twins team that revitalized the franchise. He was eventually pushed aside by Justin Morneau, who wasn't -- and isn't -- the glove whiz Mientkiewicz was, but hit a whole lot better, after which Mientkiewicz bounced around a bit -- Red Sox, Mets, Royals,Yankees, Pirates, Dodgers. Last year he was a hitting coach in rookie ball for the Dodgers.

He's stepping into an important spot in the Twins system, at least as I see it. Every minor league affiliate has its special projects and priorities, and the Miracle in 2013 might have the two most important projects in the system: Turning Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario into a bona fide third baseman (Sano) and second baseman (Rosario).

Sano and his big-time power will be a greater asset as a third baseman than if he has to move to an outfield corner or to first base. Rosario's bat figures to be a real plus if he can turn the double play with the likes of Nick Swisher trying to take his legs out, less so if he's limited to outfield duties.

Making them infielders is Job 1 and 1A for Mientkiewicz, arguably for the entire farm system.

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Late Monday night word came that the Twins and right-handed starter Kevin Correia had agreed on a two-year, $10 million deal.

This is atrocious if true. I chose for now to ignore this report and hope it goes away. When it is confirmed, I'll open fire.

Around the division: Kansas City Royals

James Shields has
exceeded 200 innings
in each of the past
six seasons.

Back in September, I published this post suggesting that the Twins could trade Chris Parmelee for James Shields. A few days later I said: No, Shields is going to cost a lot more than that.

The reconsidered view proved more correct: The Kansas City Royals on Sunday traded four top prospects for Shields, Wade Davis and a player to be named. They also acquired a great deal of social media mockery.

They earned every bit of that mockery.

It isn't that Shields and Davis are bad pitchers, by any means. It's that this was a horrendous overpay on the part of Kansas City. Wil Myers is one of the very best prospects in the minor leagues, fully ready to step into the middle of a major league lineup. Jake Odorizzi is a nearly-ready starter. Mike Montgomery's luster has faded after a pair of disappointing seasons in the upper minors, but he remains too talented to count out. Patrick Leonard is further away, but talented.

This was a deal of desperation on the part of the Royals front office. Dayton Moore has been in charge for seven years, and the Royals, despite building an impressive stack of prospects, have not reached .500, much less reached the playoffs, under his regime. The basic problem: The young starting pitchers have failed to develop, and the Kansas City rotation last year was as much a mess as Minnesota's.

Wil Myers was Baseball
America's minor league
player of the year in 2012.

And so Moore, who is widely perceived to be running out of time, has spent the offseason scraping up immediate rotation help. He claimed Edwin Santana on waivers, signed Jeremy Guthrie to a three-year contract and gave Tampa Bay the heart of his farm system for Shields and Davis. (Davis had started for the Rays in previous seasons but spent 2012 in the bullpen, where he was much better; it's unclear what the Royals have in mind with him.)

This improves the Royals; they figure now to be a .500 team, maybe a little better, perhaps a wild-card contender. I don't think that two years of James Shields justifies giving up Myers' career. I don't think Davis justifies giving up Odorizzi's career. And that's not counting the Montgomery and Leonard lottery tickets.

Moore may have figured he needs to achieve at least .500 in 2013 much to keep his job. Or, to be charitable, he may have a different sense of how close his team is to a true breakthrough. If he really thinks his team is now a World Series contender, he's pretty close to unique. This looks like a desperate move by a desperate GM, and desperation is seldom productive.

As a Twins fan, this trade pleases me. Terry Ryan is assembling a crop of prospects -- Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, J.O. Berrios and others -- worthy of comparison to the Royals farm system of a few years ago; this trade may well mean that when Ryan's prospects are ready in a couple of years, the Royals won't be an obstacle. At least, they won't be as formidable an obstacle as they could have been.

The Sunday Funnies

Satchel Paige is lounging in the Cleveland Indians bullpen circa 1949, bucking up the young Mike Garcia. Garcia is nervous because the Tribe is playing the hard-hitting Boston Red Sox, and he's been told he's likely to be used in relief.

A Red Sox pinch-hitter singles, and Dom DiMaggio comes up. "Now this guy is a mess," Paige tells Garcia. DiMaggio singles.

Up comes Johnny Pesky. Paige snorts. "Pesky! Who ever said that man could hit?" Pesky singles to load the bases and bring up Ted Williams. Indians shortstop-manager Lou Boudreau goes to the mound.

"Now we're in good shape," Paige tells the worried Garcia — and then Boudreau turns to the bullpen and signals, not for Garcia, but for Paige.

Ol' Satch falls silent, then sadly reaches for his glove. Before heading out to the mound, he tells the suddenly relieved Garcia:

"Son, just remember: When you're disputing the Red Sox, put your faith in the power of prayer."

Notes, quotes and comment

Jared Burton had
career highs in games,
innings, saves and
holds in 2012.

One aspect of the Twins' busy end-of-the-winter-meetings I hadn't commented on (until now) was the new multi-year contract for Jared Burton — two years for $5.5 million, plus a club option for 2015.

Burton turns 32 in June and he's had a career threatening injury, so it's no surprise he'd take such a deal.  $5.5 million is life-changing money, and if he stays healthy and effective enough to make it worthwhile for the Twins to pick up that 2015 option, the whole package exceeds $9 million.

For the Twins, even with the third year, it's basically what they used to pay middle relievers Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier before they hit free agency.

The only question is if they can keep Burton healthy. Ron Gardenhire handled Burton carefully in 2012; it will be interesting to see if he continues to avoid using Burton on back-to-back days next year. Terry Ryan has tried to deepen the bullpen with the additions of Josh Roenicke, Tim Wood and Ryan Pressley to holdovers Casey Fien, Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak; that should help protect Burton.

---

The free agent starter who was highest on my wish list for the Twins, Brandon McCarthy, signed Friday with Arizona — pending a physical, which, with his injury history, may not be a matter of routine.

McCarthy got essentially the same deal as Joe Blanton did with Anaheim: two years, $15.5 million. They are rather different pitchers. McCarthy's career highs for starts and innings are 25 and 170; Blanton has had only one year under 175 innings since 2005. McCarthy's innings are generally of higher quality. Blanton provides more innings.

The market values each evenly. In the specific case of the Twins, who need quality innings more than bulk innings, McCarthy would have been more valuable.

Obviously, the Twins landed neither. Still out there from my three names are John Lannan and Shawn Marcum.

---

How good a prospect is Trevor May?

The initial reaction in the Twins blogosphere to the Ben Revere trade was to view May as roughly equivalent to Alex Meyer, the prospect the Twins got in in the Denard Span trade. May and Vance Worley, the quasi-established starter the Twins got for Revere, would thus be a better return.

But ... Jim Callis of Baseball America tweeted Friday that May, who was in BA's Top 100 prospects last spring, won't be in the list when it comes out. May's command is a big enough problem to knock his status down considerably.

I still like the deal for the Twins; Worley alone is probably worth surrendering Revere, and May is a decent lottery ticket. If he harnesses his stuff, it becomes a very good trade.

But Meyer is easily the better prospect.

At the center field of it all

Joe Benson hit .179 in
Triple A in 2012 and
.184 in Double A.

Denard Span: Gone. Ben Revere: Gone.

The Twins now have a hole where their center fielders used to be. And much as was the case when Torii Hunter fled as a free agent after the 2007 season, the idea appears to be to let three unestablished players fight it out in spring training.

In the spring of 2008, it was Carlos Gomez, Jason Pridie and Span. In the spring of 2013, it will be Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks and Darin Mastroianni.

The Twins, to put it bluntly, chose the wrong guy in 2008. Span demonstrated in spring training that he was a true leadoff hitter, a man who could get on base. In on exhibition game against the Yankees, Span drew three walks; he probably took more pitches in that one game than Gomez did all spring.

Darin Mastroianni stole 21 bases in 24 attempts.

The Twins went with Gomez instead. It took almost half a season for the organization to get Span up from the minors and into the leadoff spot, and the Twins wound up out of the playoffs by the margin of a Game 163. It was a costly misreading of the talent, perhaps set up by the fact that both Pridie and Gomez were new to the organization.

This time around, there is greater familiarity with the three candidates. Mastroianni spent much of last season on the big-league squad; Hicks and Benson have spent their entire professional careers in the organization.

Each has known flaws. Mastroianni — fast but lacking in power — profiles as a fourth outfielder, not as a regular. Benson, who had a miserable, injury-riddled 2012 and is rehabbing from knee surgery, is a suberb athlete who has never really demonstrated command of the strike zone. Hicks, a switch-hitter, struggled for years as a left-handed hitter; only last season, at Double-A New Britain, has he performed well against right-handed pitching.

I believe any of the three can handle the job defensively. The question is who can hit.

My take: Hicks is, at least in the long-term, the favorite, and I suspect the Twins would really like to see the former first round pick come into camp and seize the job. Unlike Benson, he projects as a leadoff man; unlike Mastroianni, he projects as a regular.

But there's a part of me that favors the notion of handing the job to Benson. Sink or swim, kid.  It's time to see what you've got.

I've grown skeptical of Benson's ability to turn his tools into skills. And I suspect that 2013 represents his last best chance to live up to the expectations. Whether he hits or not, I would expect Hicks to come up in mid-season — either to replace Benson in the lineup, or to fill the gap left when either Josh Willingham or Justin Morneau is traded.