Feeling the draft

Sean Gilmartin is
projected by Baseball
America's Jim Callis
to be picked by the Twins
in tonight's first round.

The annual baseball draft begins today. Because the Twins won 94 games last season -- yes, they did, you can look it up -- and because there are some bonus first round picks awarded to teams that failed to sign first-round selections last summer, the Twins pick 30th in tonight's first round.

It's pretty much impossible to forecast the draft accurately that deep, but I'll give you a name anyway: Sean Gilmartin, left-handed pitcher, Florida State University. If he's available with the 30th pick, the Twins will take him.

The Twins in recent years have generally used their first-round pick(s) on college pitchers (Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers) or high-school outfielders (Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere). In the pitching department, they favor the arms with quality command and change ups already built in. Gilmartin fits that description. Plus he's left-handed, which is a definite plus. He's got a chance to last until 30 because he doesn't have overpowering velocity.

He would not be a "need" pick. The Twins farm system needs, more than anything, quality middle infielders. But the shortstops who deserve to be first-rounders will be long gone before the Twins pick, and amateur second baseman are risky (guys who wind up at second base in the majors are almost always shortstops in high school or college). And there's always room in any system for another quality arm.

Pic of the Week

Fans at a Los Angeles Dodgers game
react to the business end of a broken
bat flying into the seats.

"Spectators assume all risks and dangers incidental to the game of baseball ..."

I really haven't anything to say about this one. I like the faces, and I'm not sure what the guy at bottom center is reaching for, but beyond that, nothing.

But while I'm here, a quick jab at Dick Bremer's new hobby of scoreboard watching:

Knock it off, Dick. Obsessing over the Twins' opportunity to shave a game off Cleveland's lead is insulting your audience.

We know the Twins have the worst record in baseball. We know that if they win 14 in a row -- which would be a very impressive winning streak -- they would still be below .500.

If the Twins ever get above .500 this season, if they should somehow pull within eight or so games of the lead, sure, then the margin is of interest.

Until those unlikely events come to pass, it's irrelevant. Don't pretend the Twins are in the race. They aren't, and we know it.

Contemplating Anthony Swarzak

Anthony Swarzak hurdles the foul line on his way to
the dugout after his seventh no-hit inning on May 28.

Anthony Swarzak has made two strong starts in place of Francisco Liriano, but with Liriano expected back for Tuesday's start, Swarzak is headed back to the bullpen.

Which is the right move. Yes, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning a week ago today, and yes, his ERA is under 3.50. And so what? It's just 21 innings — 21 innings in which he has struck out just six men.

That's hardly enough to dislodge one of the incumbent starters. It shouldn't be enough to rank him ahead of Kevin Slowey either, although Slowey's status with the organization isn't very high.

I heard Ron Coomer on the radio the other day talking about how Swarzak has better "tilt" and "angle" on his pitches than in the past. Until Swarzak starts missing bats, I'm going to regard such talk as mere buzzwords, and I'm going to remain skeptical of him as a major league pitcher. (He was pitching better at Triple A this season than he has before in the high minors, with the best control and strikeout rates he's had since he was in A ball, so there may be some true improvement in him.)

Regardless of whether Swarzak is the team's sixth starter or seventh starter, shifting him back to the bullpen does give them a legitimate long man. And the Greg McMichael Rule — if you get outs, they'll find a role for you — always applies, never more so than with this troubled bullpen.

Greg Gagne and Trevor Plouffe

The optimistic projection for Trevor Plouffe had him developing into a Greg Gagne-type shortstop.

Greg Gagne's 1987 card.
He would go on to drive
in the winning run in Game
7 of the World Series that year.

There are points of similarity. Both were/are angular shortstops, so slender as to appear taller in their pinstriped uniforms than they really are. (Gagne was listed as 5-11, 185 pounds; Plouffe at 6-2, 200.) As batters, both were/are low-average hitters who draw relatively few walks but with enough power to hit 10 or so home runs a year. Both sport(ed) powerful throwing arms (when Plouffe was in high school, some scouts liked him more as a pitcher than as a shortstop).

There the similarities end. Plouffe, in his brief opportunity to be the Twins regular shortstop, proved to be an erratic thrower and uncertain fielder. Neither was a surprise to those who saw him during spring training. Gagne, on the other hand, was blessed with both an accurate arm and almost perfect judgment.

Bill James on Gagne:

He had wonderful positioning at shortstop, sure hands, excellent arm with a slingshot motion and the best judgment I ever saw in a shortstop. If he thought he could make a play at second, he'd make the play at second, and he just never seemed to misjudge those kind of things. He was aggressive without making mistakes.

I said Gagne was "blessed" with those skills, but that is probably the wrong verb,. It describes the polished talent. Gagne doubtless had to work with great diligence to develop those skills -- to master the body control that allowed him to field grounders cleanly and rapidly release a powerful, accurate throw, to hone the awareness that led to executing the right play without hesitation. It was not a given that Gagne would be a major-league shortstop; as late as 1984, he had more playing time at third base with the Twins Triple-A team than at short.

The next year, at age 23, he split playing time in the majors at short with Ron Washington and Roy Smalley; he took over the regular job in '86, and held it through 1992, through two World Series runs. Gagne played 369 minor league games at shortstop to prepare for his 14-season major league career.

Plouffe, age 24, already has almost 300 more minor league games at short than Gagne did, and with his demotion Thursday is destined for more. 

Plouffe perhaps remains young enough to develop, but if 667 games at short aren't enough to mold him into a usable major league shortstop, I don't know how many it will take. 

DL stuff (UPDATED)

Just a quick note about the Twins moves today: Jason Kubel and Jim Thome were put on the 15-day disabled list, with Ben Revere and Luke Hughes recalled. Revere is in the starting lineup today -- in right field, which is a lousy fit for his popgun throwing arm, but whatever.

Perhaps more interesting, on a day in which Joe Mauer caught three innings in extended spring training (his first such action since April), the Twins shifted Mauer to the 60-day disabled list. This (a) means he definitely won't be back with the big club until at least June 12; and (b) opens a spot on the 40-man roster.

Perhaps that slot is going to sit open until Tsuyoshi Nishioka's ready to come off the 60-day DL, and was opened now to squash any speculation that Mauer's nearly ready to return. Or maybe there's another move looming involving somebody not now on the 40-man roster, such as Kyle Waldrop, Carlos Guterriez or even Kyle Gibson.

Brian Dinkleman is
hitting .297/.373/.400
in his second year at
Triple-A.

Update: The 40-man slot was filled by Brian Dinkleman, a left-handed contract hitter with some second base experience who has been mainly playing outfield in recent seasons. Trevor Plouffe has been sent back to Rochester to make room on the 25-man roster.

Dinkleman has had a pattern of hitting better in his second season at a level. But even then, his numbers look good for a second baseman, not so good for a corner outfielder. I assume that his defense at second is deemed substandard, because a good defensive middle infielder is seldom moved to left field. 

It would have been easier to recall Rene Tosoni, who was already on the 40-man roster. The Twins now will have to clear two spots on the 40 when Nishioka and Mauer are ready to play. I assume they have targets in mind.

Wrong turn at Alburquerque

The Twins saw all too much of Al Alburquerque this week. The Tigers rookie middle reliever pitched in all three games against Minnesota — 2.1 innings, five strikeouts among the seven outs, one baserunner allowed, two wins and a hold.

Al Alburquerque has faced 74
batters. Thirty-one have
struck out; 12 have walked.
He does not pitch to contact.

For the season (and his career), Alburquerque has pitched 17.2 major league innings and struck out 31.

He is emerging as what the Twins were hoping Jim Hoey would be — a gas-throwing righty to stomp on rallies in the seventh inning.

One difference between Alburquerque and Hoey: the Tigers pitcher has a high quality slider. Hoey has the fastball to match Alburquerque, but he lacks the secondary offering.

Another difference: Hoey came to the Twins in a trade. To be sure, it was a salary dump; the Twins wanted/needed to jettison the expense represented by infielders J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris. Alburquerque was free talent.

He's 24, but he's been kicking around the minors for years — signed by the Cubs in 2003, still in A ball when traded to Colorado in midseason 2009, cut loose by the Rockies in early November last year, signed by the Tigers as a minor league free agent about two weeks later.

One can figure the Twins had a shot at signing him, but he either wasn't on their radar or chose the Tigers instead.

He's just another example of the virtues of building a bullpen on a budget.

One-run games

Part of losing one-run games: This throw on a bunt
in the eighth inning resulted in no outs on the play

The Twins, as you probably know, lost Tuesday night and fell to 17-36 on the season. This is the worst record in baseball.

They are (having lost 8-7 on Tuesday) 10-15 in one-run games, which means they're 7-21 in games decided by more than one run. Convenient in-your-head math: .400 ball in one-run games, .250 ball in the rest. They're doing better in the close games, which is actually common for bad teams. Good teams turn more games into blowouts and are better at avoiding getting blown out. Bad teams turn games they could win easily into tight games.

There's an old saying that good teams win the close games, but that's been soundly discredited. Good teams win the blowouts. Win easy, lose tight -- that's the mark of a pennant winner.

Twenty-five one-run games out of 53 is ... well, it leads the American League, but I don't know how out of the ordinary it is. The Twins lead the AL in one-run losses, and they're fourth in one-run wins.

It suggests that they're not that far away. If the middle infield would stop giving away outs, if the middle of the lineup gets healthy and productive, if the bullpen can be straightened out ... But those are a lot of flaws to attack on the fly. Bill James' Pythagorean theorem says the Twins have about the record they ought to have.