Rule 5 update

Tyler Kinley has yet to appear in a game for the Twins; Paul Molitor is, presumably, looking for a really low-leverage situation for his debut, and the Twins haven't had that yet except in the Jose Berrios complete game.

Meanwhile, Luke Bard, one of two pitchers claimed off the Twins in Rule 5, has gotten into three games for the Angels. He's pitched four innings and allowed one run on two hits and five strikeouts, all of which is good; he's also walked four, which is bad.

Luke Bard's game-ending strikeout of Jed Lowrie came on a 2,844 rpm elevated 4-seamer. That's what high-spin fastballs do -- get whiffs up in the zone -- and Bard's could be the highest we've seen since Statcast started tracking. pic.twitter.com/cnNxTOcttb

— David Adler (@_dadler) March 31, 2018

The other Rule 5 loss, Nick Burdi, is on the 60-day DL with the Pirates. His Rule 5 clock really doesn't become a factor until 2019; he had Tommy John surgery last season and isn't likely to pitch this year.

Bard versus Kinley is an intriguing comp. The Twins COULD have put Bard on the 40 last winter; they wouldn't have gotten Kinley in that case, but Bard would have options and could be sent to the minors. Kinley, as a Rule 5 guy, can't. There would be roster flexibility.

And the Twins will need a fifth starter next week, which will require a roster move. It's more likely that Gabriel Moya will be the demotee than that Kinley will be offered back to the Miami Marlins, but ... the reality of Rule 5 for contending teams is that it's really hard to devote a roster spot to that kind of player for the full season. Even if the Twins think Kinley is better than Bard, the flexibility matters. I'd rather have Bard.

And the payoff for keeping a Rule 5 guy is often slim. The Cincinnati Reds -- not a contender, of course -- two winters ago took catcher Stuart Turner out of the Twins system and kept him. He hit .134 in 82 at-bats. Last week,  his Rule 5 requirements satisified, the Reds waived him. He cleared and was outrighted to Triple A. So the Reds no longer think he's worth a 40-man roster spot, one year after carrying him on the active roster all season.

An indirect Rule 5 trade to monitor

One of the 13 pitchers coming north for Monday's opener is Justin Haley, acquired in the Rule 5 draft. As you probably know, Rule 5 picks must be carried on the active roster all season, which makes Haley essentially use or lose.

In the same draft in which the Twins landed Haley, the Cincinnati Reds selected catcher Stuart Turner from the Twins. Turner will open the season as Cincy's No. 2 catcher.

I don't know if Turner was the guy the Twins left off their 40 in order to make a Rule 5 selection -- it's certainly possible that somebody else would have been the next player protected -- but in a sense the Twins gave up Turner for Haley.

A similar exchange occured in 2015, when the Twins lost left-handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin in Rule 5 and got J.R. Graham. Gilamartin had a better 2015 for the Mets than Graham did with the Twins, and the Twins waived Graham last year. Now they have neither, and my guess is that Gilmartin has a better chance to be a useful pitcher.

Turner was a third-round draft pick by the Twins in 2013. He's a light hitter but well-regarded defensively. But Mitch Garver (ninth round in the same draft) vaulted over him last season in the Twins estimation.

It's far from certain that Haley and Turner will both make it through the season. Turner's fate may ultimately depend on the health of Devin Mesoraco, their intended No. 1 catcher who has proven injury prone and is coming off shoulder surgery. He's opening the season on the disabled list, and even if/when he returns, the Reds may be wary of losing Turner and then seeing Mesoraco get hurt again.

Winter Meetings: Rule 5

The first trade of the new Twins regime may well prove to be a minor one, but it was, if nothing else, creative almost to the point of bewildering.

And it came with a justification that underlined the difference between Terry Ryan (the former general manager) and "Falvine" (Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, the duo that replaced him at the top of the food chain).

The Twins were involved in a three-way trade of Rule 5 picks in which they emerged with Justin Haley, a right-handed starter who compiled a 13-10, 3.01 mark for the Red Sox Double A and Triple A teams this year.

What was striking in how Levine explained what the Twins like about Haley. He cited spin rates and swing-and-miss percentages, concepts and figures that I doubt were ever uttered by Ryan. Some of what he talked about, such as Haley's ability to induce awkward swings, echoed old-school scouting, but they came with an idea of why he gets those swings.

Haley will get a real opportunity to make the roster this spring; as a Rule 5 pick, he's use-or-lose. He will be, at least in theory, a candidate for the back of the rotation, but there's no shortage of starting candidates who probably rank ahead of him right now. More likely is a long relief role, and the opportunity to pitch his way into something better.

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While the Twins gained a pitcher in Rule 5, at least for a while, they lost a catcher, at least for a while. Stuart Turner, their third-round draft pick in 2013, was taken by the Cincinnati Reds.

He's got a genuine chance to stick there. One of the Reds veteran catchers, Devin Mesoraco, has had a string of injuries the past two years, and as the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, the organization sees Turner as a usable alternative.

Turner won't hit, but he, much like former Twins backup Drew Butera, probably has the defensive chops to be a backup catcher. The Twins obviously decided this fall that Mitch Garver was ahead of Turner; they put Garver on the 40-man roster and left Turner off.

Of course, it's possible Turner will be returned to the Twins. But in the meantime, they probably will be looking for a catcher or two for Triple A or Double A.

Parsing the catchers, part two

Stuart Turner has,
according to Baseball
Reference, thrown out
35 percent of base
stealers in the minors.

Stuart Turner is frequently on prospect lists for the Twins. Baseball America, for example, lists him this spring as the organization's No 16 prospect; MLB.com at No. 23. The 2013 third-rounder was regarded as the best collegiate catcher in the land his junior year.

But he simply has not hit as a pro. His defensive chops will likely get him to the major leagues anyway, but he brings Drew Butera to mind: Good receiver, not good enough with the bat to be a regular. Still, virtually every list you'll find as Turner as the best catching prospect in the organization.

He spent last summer in Double A Chattanooga, and so one would expect that he's ticketed for Triple A Rochester. Problem: One would also expect that John Hicks and Juan Centeno, the duo I discussed in part one, will be in Rochester. I doubt there's playing time for all three.

Then there's Carlos Paulino, who split 2015 between Rochester and Chattanooga. Paulino's arm really stood out to me last week when I watched the catchers during infield and pitcher fielding drills; his throws made a audibly louder snap than anybody else's when they hit the infielder's glove.

Carlos Paulino's
career caught
stealing is 31
percent.

Paulino is a couple years older than Turner (who is himself less than a year younger than presumptive major league catcher John Ryan Murphy), and this is his third organization. He started in the Marlins system, then went to the Pirates chain. The Dominican has had only two seasons of more than 300 at-bats. so he's been basically a back-up catcher in the minors, hardly the fast track.

There's a lot more to catcher defense than arm strength, of course; pitch-calling, pitch framing, pitch blocking. I'm hardly expert enough to evaluate Paulino's skills in those areas, or Turner's either. But I do see them running into a numbers crunch. There's four guys ahead of them at the next two steps up from Chattanooga, and, as I'll discuss in part three, two pushing up the ladder right behind them.

Minor league teams often carry three catchers, and the Twins may have that in mind for their high-level farm clubs. Presumably Turner will be the playing time priority. But I doubt he's ever going to hit enough to make a genuine impact on the major league team.

The catching future

The Twins this offseason have, as noted in Monday's post, shed three catchers who have bounced between Triple A and the majors the past three years -- Eric Fryer, Chris Herrmann and Josmil Pinto. They also, during the season, moved Dan Rohlfing to the Mets organization.

This essentially clears the deck for the trio of catchers the Twins selected in the first nine rounds of the 2013 draft: Stuart Turner (3rd round), Brian Navarretto (6th round) and Mitch Garver (9th round).

Turner, who turns 24 next month, figures to be the primary catcher at Triple A next year. He didn't hit much at Double A Chattanooga (.223 batting average with a .306 slugging percentage), and he didn't hit much the two previous years either. Drew Butera is probably a good comp to him: the defensive chops to catch in the major leagues, not enough bat to be a useful regular.

Garver can expect to move up a rung to Chattanooga. He'll turn 25 in January. He has shown a good bat in the past, but his production fell off notably when he moved from Low A Cedar Rapids to High A Fort Myers. That's not a plus, obviously, but some decline is always likely with that transition because Fort Myers is a notoriously difficult hitting environment, while CR is one of the more hitter-friendly venues in the Midwest League. Anyway: Garver is certainly a better hitter than Turner, and also said to be weaker behind the dish, He's also been consistently old for his level of competition.

Navarretto was the one high schooler of the three, which is why he's a level behind the other two.  He turns 21 next month. He will probably be the No. 1 catcher for Fort Myers. What he showed in Cedar Rapids was an excellent throwing arm and a weak stick -- .217/.256/.281. I happened to witness one of his two homers.

If there's a major league regular in that trio, my money's on Navarretto, but that's strictly on the basis of his youth, But the Twins can't count on any of the three emerging, which is part of why they traded for John Ryan Murphy. I think it likely that Murphy will split time with Kurt Suzuki in 2016, then become the regular in 2017, perhaps with Turner as the backup

I also think it likely that the Twins will be targeting catchers again in the 2016 draft.