Showing posts with label Elvis Andrus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elvis Andrus. Show all posts

Monday, October 3, 2011

Playoff shortstops

Shortstop was a disaster for the 2011 Twins -- so much so that it remained on my mind as I watched the first weekend of playoff baseball.

The odd thing is how many of the teams in the October tournament struggled at the position. Three of the surviving eight changed their regulars during the season; few have a truly outstanding all-round shortstop.

Break it down:

Sean Rodriguez played 431 innings at short this season
for Tampa Bay, 353 innings at second base and 172
innings at third base.
Tampa Bay Rays: Reid Brignac opened the season as their regular, but he was an utter disaster at the plate (.193/.227/.221). Elliot Johnson didn't hit either. Both men, according to Baseball Info System's advanced metrics (plus-minus and runs saved), fielded well; Brignac was +11 in plus-minus, +8 in runs saved, Johnson +13 and +11 in less than half Brignac's playing time.

But right now it's Sean Rodriguez playing short. He's out of position -- he's a second baseman -- but he's getting the job done well enough in the field, and he supplies something with the bat.

This solution has a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. Playing Rodriguez at short means Ben Zobrist is locked in at second base, and that in turn deprives manager Joe Maddon of his preferred right fielder against left-handed pitching.

Texas Rangers: Elvis Andrus might be the best defensive shortstop in the American League. The BIS metrics like him (+14, +13).  His offense isn't to the same level, but he just turned 23 in late August. Of all the shortstops in this year's field, he's the one I'd most like to have.

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter had a painfully slow start and caught fire around the time he finally got his much-hyped 3,000th hit. (Second half slash line: .327/.383/.428). His power is pretty much gone, and the defensive metrics continue to say he's a poor defensive shortstop. Plus-minus has him at -22, runs saved at -18.

Detroit Tigers: The Cleveland Indians despaired of Jhonny Peralta's glovework at short, shifted him to third base, then unloaded him. The Tigers returned him to short. The BIS metrics say he's a very slightly below average defender (-5 in plus minus, -4 in runs saved.) From a shortstop who hit .299/.345/.478, that's plenty good enough.

Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins is 32, and his game has declined since his 2007 MVP season. The BIS stats say he's an average defender (-4, -2). He is very much still a central figure on the best team in the National League, and it will be interesting to see how he and the Phillies handle his impending free agency.

Ryan Theirot, seen here taking a break-up slide from
Chase Utley, started 87 games at shortstop
for the St. Louis Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals: They opened the season with Ryan Theriot, then traded for Rafael Furcal. Theroit was vocally displeased about being replaced, but his defense was bad (-15, -12) and he isn't enough of a hitter to make up for it. Furcal isn't much of a much either, but he's an improvement over Theriot.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Opened with Stephen Drew, who has lived up to the family tradition of being generally viewed as making the least of his considerable talent. Whether that's fair or not, Drew broke his ankle in late June, and the Snakes have made do with veteran utilityman Willie Bloomquist. He's been an adequate patch.

Milwaukee Brewers: Few major league regulars draw the sabermetric disdain of Yuniesky Betancourt, and he certainly isn't a standout. But the position hasn't been a gaping wound for the Brewers either. Betancourt is, by the BIS metrics, a below-average defender, and there's no question that he's a below-average hitter. But this has been one season in which several teams have done worse at short than Betancourt, and that's not always been the case.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

AL ROY: Why not Beckham?

A post on Tuesday springboarded from the first game of the Twins-Tigers doubleheader to discussing Rick Porcello, Elvis Andrus and the American League rookie of the Year balloting.

Absent from the discussion was Gordon Beckham of the White Sox (right).

Why not Beckham? He is a legitimate candidate, with 42 extra base hits and an increasingly prominent role in the Chicago lineup. He appears to be the lineup foundation for the next five years or so of the White Sox — he and Alexei Ramirez.

Among AL rookies, he is first in RBIs and doubles; second in home runs and runs scored; third in walks and hits. Among those with at least 300 at-bats, he's first in slugging percentage, second in OBP, third in batting average, second in OPS. (Only Andrus among AL rookies qualifies for the batting title.)

So why not Beckham?

1) Andrus is not the hitter Beckham is, but he's a premium defender at a premium position. Beckham might be capable of playing shortstop in the majors, but the Sox aren't about to ask him to.

2) Andrus just turned 21; Beckham just turned 23. Those two years matter in estimating the future.

3) In evaluating the present, Andus got more playing time. The Rangers moved their veteran shortstop, Michael Young, in spring training to make room for Andrus. Ozzie Guillen, a few days before the Sox recalled Beckham, said: If we have to play Beckham, we're in trouble.

They did have to play Beckham, and they'll finish the season under .500. The Rangers reshaped their lineup to make room for Andrus, and it transformed them from a bad team to a contender.

Beckham's a good player. Andrus mattered more this year and has more room to grow. Which is why I boil the ROY question down to the best pitcher (Porcello) and the best position player (Andrus).

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Game 1: Twins 3, Tigers 2 — and Porcello

The tragic number remains at six after the first game. A lot of twists and turns — a sloppy first few innings by Nick Blackburn followed by 12 straight outs; a failed suicide squeeze in the ninth; and a 10th inning homer allowed by Joe Nathan after the Twins scored twice in the top half of the inning.

The Tigers started Rick Porcello (left), the 20-year-old who opened the season as Detroit's fifth starter and ends it as their second-most reliable starter.

And so the question: Should he be the AL Rookie of the Year?

Pitchers seldom win the prize, but this has been, literally, the season of the rookie starter — there have been more starts by rookies this year than in any season since the 1800s. And yeah, there are more games, period, but the trend is there.

Porcello — 14-9, 4.04 — has been, arguably, the best of the bunch, even though he's worked all season on a short leash. He's made 30 starts but worked just 165 innings — 5.5 innings per start — and only four times been allowed to exceed 100 pitches. (He threw a season high 111 pitches Tuesday.)

Heavy exposure in the majors is usually hazardous to young arms, and Porcello entered the season with just 125 minor league innings on his resume, all in High A ball. But Jim Leyland has been successful at the tricky task of prying valuable innings out of vulnerable arms and keeping them healthy. He did it a few years ago with Justin Verlander, and he recognized years ago that Livan Hernandez could be pushed beyond the workloads of most youngsters.

Porcello has room to improve. His BB/K and K/9 rates — the two things I most want to know about a pitcher — are unimpressive at best. But he is establishing himself as an extreme groundball pitcher, the kind of pitcher the Twins always imagined Carlos Silva to be, and he may be the rare pitcher who can get by striking out less than five men per nine innings. More likely, he'll add strikeouts as the reins are loosened. And, of course, if he stays healthy.

So: Is he the Rookie of the Year? Well, I'm not sure that he's had a better season than Texas shortstop Elvis Andrus, whose hitting stats don't connect to the value of his glove. Andrus may
not win the Gold Glove — it generally takes players a while to establish their superiority to the managers and coaches around the league — but I'm convinced that he's the best at the position in the league.

If I had a vote, I'd probably go for Andrus, but I'm not certain I'm right. I know this: I'd take either one for the Twins in a heartbeat.