Good-bye, Addison Reed

The Twins wrote off the rest of Addison Reed's two-year deal Thursday and designated the veteran reliever for assignment. The move opened a spot on the 40-man roster for Austin Adams, who inherited the berth on the active roster vacated by Wednesday's demotion of Trevor Hildenberger.

Reed had been on a rehab assignment at Triple A Rochester, and it was not going well. Reports said he showed good movement on his pitches, but his velocity remained well down from his accustomed levels, and he was getting hit hard.

Somebody may pick Reed up; he's only 30 and has a good resume as a late-inning reliever, with 125 career saves. But getting him back to that level is, clearly, going to take more patience than the Twins can afford. The Twins could have waited to make the move until his rehab period was up, but they needed the roster space immediately.

So Reed, who signed a two-year deal with the Twins during the 2017-18 offseason for $16.75 million, is not going to be part of the solution to Minnesota's bullpen depth issues.

That, of course, was the intent when he was signed. And Reed was effective for basically the first half of 2018. But he had a couple of disasterous outings in June, went on the disabled list in July and was obviously not the same pitcher after his return from the DL.

Reed is a cautionary tale of the risks involved in signing veteran free agent relievers. There are, without question, Twins fans who believe that Craig Kimbrel is the solution to the bullpen depth problem -- and it is a problem. But Kimbrel is not a low-cost solution. He figures to be an expense on the multiples of Reed, and the Kimbrel we saw last postseason was ... not effective.

The Twins need bullpen help. There have to be viable alternatives that don't carry the risk Kimbrel poses. Unfortunately for the Twins and for Addison Reed, he's not one of them.

Trevor Hildenberger and a too-thin bullpen

Forty-some years ago whoever The Sporting News had as its correspondent for the then-California Angels referred constantly to that team's bullpen as "the Arson Squad." It's rare today to see a relief ace called a "fireman," but you get the idea.

Trevor Hildenberger today is more an arsonist than a fireman. Wednesday marked three straight appearances for him with a home run allowed. I won't pretend to know what the problem is; I know there's a problem.

Underlying the Hildenberger-specific problem that's leading to all the long balls is one of roster construction. The Twins have too many bullpen guys Paul Molitor doesn't want to use in game situations -- like the ninth inning of a tied game, which was the situation Wednesday when Hildenberger served up his most recent tater.

Fernando Rodney and Taylor Rogers, yes. Beyond that, with the trades of Zach Duke and Ryan Pressly ... the abyss.

Hildenberger is the favored arm of the rest of the pen partly because he has had some success, partly because he's (presumably) sound and partly because he's right handed.

Gabriel Moya is getting some work as a second lefty; essentially Rogers has moved into Duke's role as the favored lefty and Moya has moved into Rogers' old role. Fine.

Trevor May -- who did pitch Wednesday -- is in a rehab season after his Tommy John surgery. I assume Molitor wants to avoid using May on consecutive days.

Addison Reed is supposed to be a bullpen factor, but he has pitched just twice since coming off the disabled list, on July 31 and Aug 4. If he needs that much rest between outings, he probably shouldn't be active.

Matt Magill -- another guy who did pitch Wednesday -- has been pigeonholed as a long man for much of the season. Molitor has been reluctant to use him late in games, and nine of his first 25 appearances came with leads or deficits of more than four runs.

And Oliver Drake -- I haven't the slightest notion what he and his 7.31 ERA (compiled on a major league record five teams, including the Twins) is doing on this roster. I do know what he isn't doing, and that's pitching.

At least the overmatched Matt Belisle is off the active roster -- not DFA'd, but on the disabled list. This means we will probably get another dose of him next month at the latest. Oh joy.

Contemplating Addison Reed

The Twins put Addison Reed on the disabled list (triceps) Wednesday and recalled Alan Busenitz from Triple A. This is at least the third call-up for Busenitz this year, maybe four. None have been for very long.

This is apparently Reed's first time on the DL, which is rather impressive for a hard-used reliever in this era. It probably ensures that he won't be traded this month, not that his pitching of late was making any contenders salivate at the thought of adding him.

Reed was supplanted weeks ago in the bullpen heirarchy as the primary set-up man by Trevor Hildenberger, which seemed plausible even after Reed's signing. Hildenberger had a rough spring training, I think in part because he was working on a breaking ball, and there was no question coming into the season that Paul Molitor trusted Reed more.

But that's changed. Reed's now allowed eight homers in 41 innings, and several of those long balls led directly to losses.

To a degree, heirarchy matters less than depth. Good teams need deep bullpens, the deeper the better. Whether as the primary eight-inning guy or a seven-inning guy or a strand-these-runners specialist, Reed was supposed to deepen the Twins 'pen. By the time he conceded that there was a problem affecting his pitching, he was unusable in game situations.  Now it's Busenitz's turn, at least for a while.

Feeding the gopher

Ibid, Monday's post:

In my best glass-half-empty mode, I will note here that Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed have become disturbingly gopher-ball prone. ... Both have histories of allowing long balls, so it's not as if this is unexpected.

And what happened Friday night? Pressly pitched the seventh, and gave up a two-run homer to turn a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 deficit. Reed pitched the eighth and gave up a solo shot.

Ugh.

That we can see this coming just adds to the irritation when it happens.

Adding Addison Reed

I didn't think much of the reported agreement Saturday between the Twins and veteran reliever Addison Reed. That goes to show the power of first impressions.

Reed got going in the majors seven years ago with the Chicago White Sox, so we Twins fans got to see quite a bit of him. The Sox made him their closer pretty quickly, so he piled up some big saves numbers early, but he really wasn't that effective, and they moved him on to Arizona after his 40-save 2013 (ERA 3.79).

Somewhere along the line he (a) ceased being the prime ninth-inning option for his teams and (b) became a genuinely effective reliever. He split last year between the Mets -- where he did close for part of the year -- and the Red Sox, where he was a bit home-run prone.

And suddenly, wow, the Twins have a pretty darn deep bullpen, and it's not a case where they're getting that depth by planning on the emergence of one of the prospects. They're not asking Fernando Rodney or Reed or Zach Duke to do anything other than what their track records are.

Projected bullpen:

Closer: Rodney
Setup 1: Trevor Hildenberger
Setup 2: Reed
LOOGY 1: Taylor Rogers
LOOGY 2: Duke
MR1: Ryan Pressly
MR2:  Tyler Duffey

You can shuffle those roles around however you wish. I prefer Hildenberger to Reed, and Rogers over ro Duke, but your mileage may vary, and Paul Molitor may defer to the veterans, and that's defensible.

All this, of course, hinges on Reed passing the physical, which I assume he will.