Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Feeling a draft (Day 2)

I read a few year ago Nate Silver's book on predictions, The Signal and the Noise. One concept I took away from it is that humans look instinctively for patterns and often "find" patterns that don't really exist.

The Twins on Day 2 of the draft Tuesday -- Rounds 3 through 10 -- drafted no high schoolers and no catchers or outfielders. It was all college infielders and pitchers.

First round pick Keoni Cavaco is the only prep player the Twins took in their first 11 picks. Competitive balance pick Matt Wallner is the only outfielder.

Pattern or coincidence? Well, in terms of organizational need, the Twins took quite a few catchers -- or players who were thought possible catchers -- last season. And they seem pretty well stocked with outfield talent already.

One pick by the Twins that got immediate notice on Tuesday: Will Holland, a shortstop out of Auburn, in the fifth round. He was seen as a possible first-rounder at the start of the 2019 season but slumped terribly at the plate, with batting average as low as .201 about a month ago. He might be a steal -- or he might be a mistake.

The consensus appears to be that this is a down year for pitchers, and particularly at the college level, but one always needs a fresh set of arms in the organization. The Twins took five college arms in the first two days, mostly in the later rounds.

Day 3 today will feature a lot more names, many of whom will not sign. The 11 drafted Monday and Tuesday -- unless somebody flunks their physical, expect them all to sign.

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