Life after Gardy

Ron Gardenhire at Monday's press
conference.

Ron Gardenhire didn't go kicking and screaming when fired Monday, He took part in the press conference, made a few jokes, and even said removing him from the managerial job might be the best thing for the team: "A different voice, a different face."

Meanwhile, Terry Ryan emphasized that the next manager may not be a current Twins employee. When Gardenhire was hired in the wake of Tom Kelly's retirement after the 2001 season, the known candidates were on the coaching staff: Gardy, Paul Molitor and dark horse Scott Ullger.

There's no shortage of legit in-house candidates this time around, starting with current coaches Molitor and Terry Steinbach. Ullger is known to want to manage but probably has no chance at the job. From the minors, there's Doug Mientkiewicz. (Jake Mauer is also racking up an impressive resume in the farm system, but the presence of his younger brother on the roster probably precludes Jake as a serious candidate in Minnesota.) I've seen Gene Glynn and Jeff Smith mentioned, but I can't believe either would rate above Mientkiewicz.

If Ryan and Company go outside the organization, a name to be aware of is Dave Martinez, currently bench coach for the Tampa Bay Rays. Martinez, as Joe Maddon's understudy/protege, figures to be more openly attuned to the analytic approach to running a team than was Gardenhire (who was, I am convinced, more aware of the numbers than he wanted us to believe.) There are plenty of other outside possibilities being floated -- Torey Lovello from the Red Sox, Chip Hale (former Twin form the Tom Kelly era) from Oakland, Jose Oquendo from the Cardinals -- and almost all come from more openly sabermetric operations than the Twins.

I do not take the Ozzie Guillen chatter seriously; that's just talk radio nonsense. I do want the revamped coaching staff -- and there are likely to be changes -- to include at least one native Spanish speaker. There are just too many young Latin players of importance in this organization to allow things to get lost in translation.

My guess right now is that Molitor and Mientkiewicz are the two most likely choices, but that sense stems in part from past practice. My personal preference would be Mientkiewicz, who would be the most likely to have a decade-plus tenure. But I think it's more likely that Molitor would be the pick with Mientkiewicz added to the coaching staff.

Ron Garden-fired

Ron Gardenhire during his last game as Twins manager.

So it happened Monday: The Twins dismissed Ron Gardenhire as manager.

I'm not celebrating.

The suspicion here is that Gardy got ousted for the wrong reason: To appease the columnists, talk radio loudmouths and critical Internet voices, none of whom have any responsibility for anything in the Twins organization.

It's possible that the ax dropped for a good reason, such as the possibility that Gardenhire and the front office were at cross-purposes on how certain players should be used.

The most likely case would appear to be Danny Santana. Gardenhire was reluctant to play the rookie at shortstop, even when he had two other center field options in Aaron Hicks and Jordan Schafer. Both Terry Ryan and his assistant GM, Rob Antony, said repeatedly this month that Santana is viewed as a long-term shortstop, even as Gardy persisted in using Santana in center.

My sense on this possible source of friction is that Gardenhire is more correct. I don't think Santana is going to be a quality shortstop. If Santana has a future as a one-position player, I think that future is at a spot he has yet to play in the majors (left field).

But we've seen signs that Gardenhire and Ryan had different views on the talent before -- see Gardenhire's similar reluctance to play Jason Bartlett in 2005-early 2006 -- and they've worked it out.

We'll see who the Twins fill the job with -- and how his approach to the game differs from Gardenhire's. My sense is that this might be akin to what happened when Ted Turner fired Bobby Cox after the 1981 season. Somebody asked Turner at the press conference, "What kind of manager are you looking for?" Turner replied: "Someone like Bobby Cox."

If the Twins are looking for someone like Gardenhire, they probably shouldn't have fired the real one.

End of the season

The Twins would have liked to keep the Tigers from clinching the division title on the field this weekend in Detroit. They couldn't quite do that.

The Twins did split the four-game series. They did win the season series (10-9). They did outscore the Tigers by 17 runs head-to-head for the season, which would suggest a much better record than 10-9.

But Detroit won 90 games and a fourth straight division title, while the Twins won 20 games fewer and finished last.

Brian Dozier sees better days:

Brian Dozier after watching an opponent clinch a playoff spot for the 4th time the past 2 years: "We’ll be clinching soon." #MNTwins
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) September 28, 2014

Brian Dozier on #Tigers: "A few additions and a couple of new things around the corner, we’re better. We’re better than that team."
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) September 28, 2014

Dozier has said things that I disagree with (for example, that Derek Jeter is the greatest player ever). On this, I think he's right. There is real reason for optimism about the future this offseason.

The growth of the Twins lineup this year was impressive. Anybody watching the slow veteran bats in spring training -- Jason Kubel, Josh Willingham, Jason Bartlett -- had to wonder how the Twins would even match 2013's dismal run production. The 2014 Twins outscored their 2013 selves by more than 100 runs, and things really picked up when the old guys gave way to the new blood.

And I think Dozier -- and the others who were in camp early -- remembers what he saw from Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton before their injuries. They are the "couple of new things around the corner." This was a lost season for the two megaprospects, but their talent is undeniable, and they are coming, if a year later than expected.

Pic of the Week

Derek Jeter exults after his walk-off hit in his final
game in Yankee Stadium on Thursday.

I avoided adding to the Derek Jeter adulation and backlash as much as I could this year, and the past week in particular. I doubt anybody's missed my contribution. You want to read about Jeter, about the Captain, about "RE2PECT," there's plenty of other places to find that.

Still, he was a special player, the linchpin of a special team. For my money, the 1998-2001 Yankees were the greatest team ever --- better than the 1936-39 Yankees, better than the 1975-76 Reds, better than the 1926-28 Yanks, better than all the magnificent multi-year dynasties and mini-dynasties. And Jeter himself, I say, is the second best shortstop in major league history -- not up to Honus Wagner's standard, but better than Cal Ripken or Arky Vaughn or Ozzie Smith or Alex Rodriguez or anybody else one might care to nominate.

Thursday's game wasn't merely the last home game of Jeter's career. It's also the only game he ever played in the Bronx with the Yankees mathematically eliminated. The expanded playoff system certainly had something to do with that, as the the quality of the teams he played for. But that's still an astounding fact.

Tigers and Royals

Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez
celebrate as the Kansas City Royals
secured their first postseason berth
since winning the World Series in 1985.

They are, going into the final two days of the schedule, separated by just one game. But as close as they are in the standings, the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are very different teams, with almost mirror image strengths and weaknesses.

The Tigers have a brawny lineup. They stand second in the American League in runs scored and are closer to first than to third in that important stat. They're first in doubles (you'll never guess which team is second*), first in batting average, first in slugging percentage, first in on-base percentage,

Their starting rotation boasts the last three American League Cy Young Award winners, and they also have last year's ERA champ, who isn't one of the Cys.

But their bullpen -- despite the addition of numerous "proven closers" -- remains a minefield, and they are -- despite their drastic offseason infield makeover -- a dismal defensive team. The Tigers shed Prince Fielder so they could move Miguel Cabrera to first base and insert Nick Castellanos at third, and this was expected to improve the defense. Um ... not so much:

Stat of the Day: Nick Castellanos (-30 Runs Saved) is approaching Ryan Braun's record (-32, 2007) for the worst 3B season of the DRS era.
— John Dewan (@FieldingBible) September 23, 2014

(Last night Castellanos committed a throwing error that allowed the Twins two runs.)

The Royals, on the other hand, are ninth in the AL in runs scored, more than 100 fewer than the Tigers. They are the one AL team with fewer than 100 homers. They are dead last in walks drawn.

Their starting pitching is competent, but certainly James Shields, Danny Duffy, Yolando Ventura and Jason Vargas don't have the cachet of Max Scherzer, David Price and Justin Verlander.

What makes the Royals -- at least in the standings -- the virtual equivalent of the Tigers is their prowess afield and the smothering capacity of their bullpen. Kansas City has a collection of fleet outfielders and skilled infielders, with legit Gold Glove candidates at four or five positions. (Torii Hunter owns more Gold Gloves than the entire Royals roster put together, but he now covers about as much ground as those ugly trophies.)

To be sure, the Pythagorean Theorem doesn't see the two teams as near equals. By the simple formula of runs scored vs. runs allowed, Detroit "should" be four games better than Kansas City. By wins and losses, they're only one game better after 160 contests.

I've been neutral between the two teams. But the novelty of Kansas City in the playoffs is intriguing, and -- well, the Royals aren't winning the division title without help from the Twins this weekend. So let's go Royals.

*OK, I was wrong, and you did guess that the Twins are second.

May be

Trevor May waits on the Twins bench to return to the
mound Thursday night in Detroit.

Trevor May had a rough first two months in the major leagues: 3-6, 7.88 isn't exactly staking a claim on a 2015 rotation spot.

Still, one can find reasons to believe. Thursday night's loss to Detroit gave some.

May had one of those minimal quality starts that dampen the stat's reputation: six innings, three earned runs. He was stung by home runs from Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera, which hardly makes him unique. The plus side: one walk allowed, and that intentional, as compared to seven strikeouts.

In his first three outings in the majors (two starts and one relief effort, total of nine innings), May walked 13 and struck out three. In his seven subsequent starts (36.2 innings), he walked nine and struck out 41.

Obviously, he still wasn't going particularly deep into games. The ERA (7.61) in that span still wasn't anything resembling good. But he clearly took to the example Phil Hughes set -- he threw strikes and trusted his stuff. And his two best starts came against Cleveland and Detroit, two good lineups both still in the hunt (at least at the time).

---

The Twins brain trust on Thursday offered Hughes an opportunity to pick up a relief outing this weekend, pick up that elusive 630th out and get his half-a-million bonus. He declined, saying he had put enough innings on his arm and didn't want to jeopardize his health with a short-rest relief appearance, even a brief one.

Were the Twins in the hunt, Hughes would probably be volunteering to start on three days rest in the season finale. They aren't, to state the obvious.

By not pitching this weekend, Hughes not only protects his arm after setting a career high in innings pitched. He also preserves what stands now as the major-league record for strikeout-walk ratio: 11.4 strikeouts for every walk allowed.

That may not be a prominent a record as, say, Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA in 1968, but it's still a significant achievement.

Phil Hughes and the $500,000 rain delay

Phil Hughes pitched at least seven innings in 19 of his
32 starts, but never into the ninth inning.

Phil Hughes needed to pitch 8.1 innings -- 25 outs -- on Wednesday to reach 210 innings for the season. That would trigger a $500,000 bonus.

He sailed through eight innings -- 24 outs. And then the rain came.

The game was delayed 66 minutes, and when it resumed, Hughes did not. He is, and apparently will remain, one out shy of that bonus. He is not scheduled to start in the final series, and he said after the game that he's not interested in pitching in relief this weekend to collect that bonus.

There are those on the Internets calling for the Twins to pay out the bonus anyway. I'm not joining that call.

Yeah, he hit some bad luck on the weather in his final start, but ... he had 31 other starts this year, and you can go down the list of starts and see plenty of opportunities for him to pick up another out or another inning.

May 9 is probably the best example: He threw seven innings of shutout ball at Detroit on 84 pitches, then apparently told the dugout bosses he was done.

I'm not going Blyleven on Hughes and implying that he's some sort of slacker by mentioning that game. I'm willing to assume that Hughes gave the Twins everything he had in every start and made every start he should make.

The contract called for 210 innings for that bonus. He just missed.

It's still a heck of a season. Sixteen wins and only 16 walks allowed, the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in history -- yeah, Hughes had a really good season.