On Thursday night, there were reports that the Twins would have an official announcement on Paul Molitor's new contract on Friday.
There wasn't. The word Friday was that this won't be resolved until next week.
Evaluating this from the outside:
* The public pressure is on the Twins. Brian Dozier has been quoted: "One hundred percent, I speak for everybody else in here, we hope he’s back.” The metro columnists are, predictably, in favor of retaining him. To the extent that Molitor has leverage in these negotiations, it's the vocal player and media support for him.
* Other leverage is with the front office.
It is entirely reasonable to believe that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in July expected to dismiss Molitor at seasons end and that they had specific candidates in mind. (Two names from Cleveland, Falvey's former organization, have been linked to the job already: Micky Callaway and Sandy Alomar Jr., the latter of whom was among the candidates Molitor beat out three winters ago.) I doubt they are particularly worried about running these talks aground. In a sense, the worst that can happen is that they wind up with the manager they expected three months ago.
At the very least, if Molitor returns -- and I expect he will -- it will be on Falvine's terms, not Molitor's.
The Dozier quote, I'll take with a grain of salt. The idea that any manager is universally beloved in his clubhouse is somewhere short of credible. Casey Stengel supposedly said of managing that on any team, Five guys love you, five hate you and the rest are undecided. The secret of managing is to keep the five who hate you away from the 15 who haven't made up their minds.
We can assume Dozier is in the "love him" camp.
As for the metro columnist support, I've developed a rather deep contempt for their collective baseball wisdom. If Jim Souhan says the sun is shining, carry your umbrella.
As for my position: Tune in to the Monday print column.
Saturday, October 7, 2017
Friday, October 6, 2017
Bringing back Molitor
Two beat writers, two tweets:
The Strib tweet is more defenitive, but the Neal story -- like Berardino's -- notes that there were unresolved details Thursday night.
Managerial agreements have been known to derail over salary, coaching staff and authority, and the second may be in play here:
If Falvine is demanding a coaching staff change with Molitor resisting, my guess is that the tug-of-war involves pitching coach Neil Allen. Derek Falvey played a particular role in Cleveland in their pitching development process, and he is soon to be free to raid his old organization (the agreement to let him come to Minnesota included a one-year ban on the Twins hiring Cleveland personnel). I would be astounded if he didn't raid that organization for a pitching guru or two or three.
The Twins have created openings in their minor league system by dismissing minor league pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen, and one report suggests they will split that role into two positions, one for the high minors (Double and Triple A) and one for low minors/rehab. So even if Allen is kept on, there are ways for Falvey to cross pollinate the Twins system with Cleveland's.
From @LaVelleNeal: Paul Molitor will return to manage Twins https://t.co/Gjsh1XFHx6 pic.twitter.com/33R54lf6NN— Star Tribune Sports (@StribSports) October 5, 2017
I'm told Paul Molitor has indeed been invited back for 2018, but source w/direct knowledge says "nothing has been decided or agreed to" yet.— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) October 5, 2017
The Strib tweet is more defenitive, but the Neal story -- like Berardino's -- notes that there were unresolved details Thursday night.
Managerial agreements have been known to derail over salary, coaching staff and authority, and the second may be in play here:
Molitor, plus his coaches were at Target Field today. Sense remains that full status quo with everyone back is unlikely. #mntwins— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) October 5, 2017
If Falvine is demanding a coaching staff change with Molitor resisting, my guess is that the tug-of-war involves pitching coach Neil Allen. Derek Falvey played a particular role in Cleveland in their pitching development process, and he is soon to be free to raid his old organization (the agreement to let him come to Minnesota included a one-year ban on the Twins hiring Cleveland personnel). I would be astounded if he didn't raid that organization for a pitching guru or two or three.
The Twins have created openings in their minor league system by dismissing minor league pitching coordinator Eric Rasmussen, and one report suggests they will split that role into two positions, one for the high minors (Double and Triple A) and one for low minors/rehab. So even if Allen is kept on, there are ways for Falvey to cross pollinate the Twins system with Cleveland's.
Thursday, October 5, 2017
Bullpen as a verb
No starter in either wild card game got to the fifth inning. That wasn't by design; each of the four teams started their ace, and two of the four (Luis Severino of the Yankees and Zach Greinke of the Diamondbacks) figure to get some downballot votes for Cy Young. It was, simply, that nobody had a good start.
But short starts will be the rule this October, and there may well be a game somewhere down the line in which a manager deliberately follows some semblance of Brian Kenny's suggested Yankees pitching lineup for the wild card game. The MLB Network host suggested two innings of Chad Green, two innings of Sonny Gray, then one inning apiece from five relievers. As it turned out, the Yankees got even fewer outs from a starter than Kenny envisioned.
This approach has been dubbed "bullpenning." It happens occasionally in the regular season, when a managers short of pitchers resorts to a "bullpen game," but it's deemed unsustainable over the course of the season. October, with more days off, chillier conditions and more pressure, is another matter.
But we certainly are seeing the game evolve in the short start direction.
Chris Sale of Boston -- he'll start the ALDS opener this afternoon against Houston -- led the majors in innings pitched at 214.1. With the exception of the two major strike seasons, 1981 and 1994, this is the lowest total to lead baseball. We've seen only two league leaders top 250 innings since 2004.
This is partly, but only partly, from a growing adherence to the five-man rotation. The conventional four-day rotation of the 1960s and 1970s -- in which a fifth starter was only used for double headers and the fourth starter skipped when the schedule included a convenient offday -- gave way to a five day rotation, with the fifth starter skipped when possible. In the past decade or so it has evolved to a more rigid five-man rotation, with even the aces pushed back a day for offdays.
That takes a handful of starts away from the best pitchers. But they also work less deeply into games each outing. Ervin Santana was second in the majors in innings (211.1), and only two men made more starts (33). Santana averaged 6.4 innings a start. For a fan who saw 300-inning seasons routinely in his youth, that seems light.
Here's the thing: The game evolves, by and large, in the direction of what works. Today's pitchers are facing lineups capable of hitting long balls one through nine. Jim Palmer and Bert Blyleven didn't. Today's pitchers are expected to work at higher velocities, and it's easier to sustain 95 mph and higher for a handful of innings than for eight or nine, and easier to get there once a week than twice a week.
Easier, not easy.
My personal preference is for longer starts and fewer pitching changes, particularly in-inning changes. The game is going in a different direction. I could rant about that, but it would be like ranting at the Mississippi for flowing south.
But short starts will be the rule this October, and there may well be a game somewhere down the line in which a manager deliberately follows some semblance of Brian Kenny's suggested Yankees pitching lineup for the wild card game. The MLB Network host suggested two innings of Chad Green, two innings of Sonny Gray, then one inning apiece from five relievers. As it turned out, the Yankees got even fewer outs from a starter than Kenny envisioned.
This approach has been dubbed "bullpenning." It happens occasionally in the regular season, when a managers short of pitchers resorts to a "bullpen game," but it's deemed unsustainable over the course of the season. October, with more days off, chillier conditions and more pressure, is another matter.
But we certainly are seeing the game evolve in the short start direction.
Chris Sale of Boston -- he'll start the ALDS opener this afternoon against Houston -- led the majors in innings pitched at 214.1. With the exception of the two major strike seasons, 1981 and 1994, this is the lowest total to lead baseball. We've seen only two league leaders top 250 innings since 2004.
This is partly, but only partly, from a growing adherence to the five-man rotation. The conventional four-day rotation of the 1960s and 1970s -- in which a fifth starter was only used for double headers and the fourth starter skipped when the schedule included a convenient offday -- gave way to a five day rotation, with the fifth starter skipped when possible. In the past decade or so it has evolved to a more rigid five-man rotation, with even the aces pushed back a day for offdays.
That takes a handful of starts away from the best pitchers. But they also work less deeply into games each outing. Ervin Santana was second in the majors in innings (211.1), and only two men made more starts (33). Santana averaged 6.4 innings a start. For a fan who saw 300-inning seasons routinely in his youth, that seems light.
Here's the thing: The game evolves, by and large, in the direction of what works. Today's pitchers are facing lineups capable of hitting long balls one through nine. Jim Palmer and Bert Blyleven didn't. Today's pitchers are expected to work at higher velocities, and it's easier to sustain 95 mph and higher for a handful of innings than for eight or nine, and easier to get there once a week than twice a week.
Easier, not easy.
My personal preference is for longer starts and fewer pitching changes, particularly in-inning changes. The game is going in a different direction. I could rant about that, but it would be like ranting at the Mississippi for flowing south.
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
And so it ends
There was an obvious path to victory Tuesday for the Twins: get an early lead and have Ervin Santana, their best starting pitcher, have one of his good games.
The hitters did their part, more or less. They plated three runs in the first and drove Yankees starter and ace Luis Severino from the game six batters in. But they left a couple ducks on the pond in that inning, and they didn't cash in enough in the third, and after that the Yankees bullpen gave them nothing.
And Santana was far from having one of his good games.
So be it. The 2017 Twins were far from championship quality. It took a watered-down format to get them into the October tournament. I can root for them and be disappointed in Tuesday's outcome and still recognize that reality.
I think it was the FiveThirtyEight website that called this the most loaded playoff field ever. Three teams -- Cleveland and Houston in the American League and Los Angeles in the National -- won at least 100 games, and Washington won 97. Three more teams won at least 92. Colorado and the Twins don't really fit in this field.
The 2017 season was still a good one for the Twins organization. They went from 59 wins to 85, from the worst record in baseball to the final postseason berth. That is a genuine accomplishment.
But if 100 wins (and not 95) is a genuine new standard for quality, the Twins are 15 short of that. And it will be more difficult to add those 15 than it was to add this year's 26.
The hitters did their part, more or less. They plated three runs in the first and drove Yankees starter and ace Luis Severino from the game six batters in. But they left a couple ducks on the pond in that inning, and they didn't cash in enough in the third, and after that the Yankees bullpen gave them nothing.
And Santana was far from having one of his good games.
So be it. The 2017 Twins were far from championship quality. It took a watered-down format to get them into the October tournament. I can root for them and be disappointed in Tuesday's outcome and still recognize that reality.
I think it was the FiveThirtyEight website that called this the most loaded playoff field ever. Three teams -- Cleveland and Houston in the American League and Los Angeles in the National -- won at least 100 games, and Washington won 97. Three more teams won at least 92. Colorado and the Twins don't really fit in this field.
The 2017 season was still a good one for the Twins organization. They went from 59 wins to 85, from the worst record in baseball to the final postseason berth. That is a genuine accomplishment.
But if 100 wins (and not 95) is a genuine new standard for quality, the Twins are 15 short of that. And it will be more difficult to add those 15 than it was to add this year's 26.
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
A storm cloud on the horizon
While Twins fans were focused on today's wild-card game against the Yankees, a major big-picture story erupted in Atlanta, where general manager John Coppolella and a top subordinate resigned.
The immediate word was that MLB had found serious rules violations by the Braves in the international free agent market. But the MLB investigation also reportedly found violations beyond the cesspool of the international market, including the domestic draft.
Coppolella headed the Braves organization for two years and a day, and in that time had laregly rebuilt the Braves farm system into a powerhouse. The system is currently ranked either first or second (with the White Sox) by pretty much every outside evaluation.
Here's the thing: Rule bending, even cheating, is standard operating procedure for signing Dominican players. The specific violations by Coppolella and Gordon Blakesley, special assistant for international scouting, haven't been detailed for public consumption, but presuambly they must have been significant to cost them their jobs. Either that, or everybody is at risk.
John Hart, veteran GM who came out of retirement Monday to fill Coppolella's job on an interim basis, said at a press conference that the violations don't involve criminal activity. (A few years ago a White Sox exec went to federal prison in a kickback scheme involving Dominican prospects.)
But it seems very likely that there will be further repercussions against the Braves. Perhaps some signings will be invalidated. Perhaps they will lose draft picks or bonus pool money. Coppolella and Blakesley are probably no longer employable.
And this will affect the Braves, certainly, but everybody else as well. The message is that there's a red line out there, and organizations cross it at their peril -- but its location is uncertain.
The immediate word was that MLB had found serious rules violations by the Braves in the international free agent market. But the MLB investigation also reportedly found violations beyond the cesspool of the international market, including the domestic draft.
Coppolella headed the Braves organization for two years and a day, and in that time had laregly rebuilt the Braves farm system into a powerhouse. The system is currently ranked either first or second (with the White Sox) by pretty much every outside evaluation.
Here's the thing: Rule bending, even cheating, is standard operating procedure for signing Dominican players. The specific violations by Coppolella and Gordon Blakesley, special assistant for international scouting, haven't been detailed for public consumption, but presuambly they must have been significant to cost them their jobs. Either that, or everybody is at risk.
John Hart, veteran GM who came out of retirement Monday to fill Coppolella's job on an interim basis, said at a press conference that the violations don't involve criminal activity. (A few years ago a White Sox exec went to federal prison in a kickback scheme involving Dominican prospects.)
But it seems very likely that there will be further repercussions against the Braves. Perhaps some signings will be invalidated. Perhaps they will lose draft picks or bonus pool money. Coppolella and Blakesley are probably no longer employable.
And this will affect the Braves, certainly, but everybody else as well. The message is that there's a red line out there, and organizations cross it at their peril -- but its location is uncertain.
Monday, October 2, 2017
Sano or Sa-yes? Some wild card roster speculation
The second half of the Monday print column speculated that Miguel Sano would be the designated hitter on Tuesday in Yankee Stadium and doubted that would be the best decision.
That was written before Sunday's game, in which:
Sano went 1-for-8 in the Detroit series and never got a ball off the ground.
My current guess is that he will be on the 25-man roster for that game but that Robbie Grossman will start at DH. The reason to have him on the roster: As a pinch-hit threat against the left-handed gas of Aroldis Chapman. But that's just a guess.
---
Gabriel Moya got the save Sunday with five outs of hitless relief.
Dick Bremer on Sunday cast doubt on the idea that Moya might be on the playoff roster, citing the two homers he's allowed his seven appearances.
I'm not sure he's even eligible, as he wasn't on the 40-man roster Sept. 1 (although he was in the organization). But I do know I'd rather see Moya get the ball as a LOOGY on Tuesday than Buddy Boshers.
---
There's no way Bartolo Colon will be active for the Wild Card game after going 6.1 innings Sunday. I wouldn't have Kyle Gibson, who had a short start Friday, active either, although he's a plausible reliever on three days rest. I'd just save him for the ALDS Game One start. If that start doesn't happen, so be it. I doubt the WC game will be determined by Gibson's availablity.
The Twins gave Jose Berrios a bullpen test drive Friday, and there's reasonable speculation that Paul Molitor's bullpen blueprint for that one-and-done game is: Six innings from Ervin Santana, one from Berrios, one from Trevor Hildenberger and one from Matt Belisle. That plan, if it is the plan, leaves Taylor Rogers available for LOOGY duties.
That was written before Sunday's game, in which:
- Sano struggled to recognize off-speed pitches and
- was removed with "discomfort" in his left shin.
Sano went 1-for-8 in the Detroit series and never got a ball off the ground.
My current guess is that he will be on the 25-man roster for that game but that Robbie Grossman will start at DH. The reason to have him on the roster: As a pinch-hit threat against the left-handed gas of Aroldis Chapman. But that's just a guess.
---
Gabriel Moya got the save Sunday with five outs of hitless relief.
Dick Bremer on Sunday cast doubt on the idea that Moya might be on the playoff roster, citing the two homers he's allowed his seven appearances.
I'm not sure he's even eligible, as he wasn't on the 40-man roster Sept. 1 (although he was in the organization). But I do know I'd rather see Moya get the ball as a LOOGY on Tuesday than Buddy Boshers.
---
There's no way Bartolo Colon will be active for the Wild Card game after going 6.1 innings Sunday. I wouldn't have Kyle Gibson, who had a short start Friday, active either, although he's a plausible reliever on three days rest. I'd just save him for the ALDS Game One start. If that start doesn't happen, so be it. I doubt the WC game will be determined by Gibson's availablity.
The Twins gave Jose Berrios a bullpen test drive Friday, and there's reasonable speculation that Paul Molitor's bullpen blueprint for that one-and-done game is: Six innings from Ervin Santana, one from Berrios, one from Trevor Hildenberger and one from Matt Belisle. That plan, if it is the plan, leaves Taylor Rogers available for LOOGY duties.
Sunday, October 1, 2017
Pic of the Week
 |
| David Price reacts after striking out George Springer to escape a bases-laded jam in the seventh inning Saturday. |
I was hoping, as a Twins fan, that the Astros would win that game Saturday, and beat the Red Sox again today, and that the Yankees would further cooperate by winning their games in Toronto. That would have forced those teams into a Game 163 to decide which was the division champ and which would play the Twins in the wild-card game Tuesday.
That, I figured, would stretch out the pitching staffs of either team and give the Twins some slight advantage.
Didn't happen. The Red Sox won, and thus clinched the AL East.
Price -- who has had a controversial season in Boston, complete with a long stint on the disabled list and an altercation with team broadcaster Dennis Eckersley -- is going to be working out of the Boston bullpen this month. The hope (or expectation) is that he can do for the Sawx what Andrew Miller did last year for Cleveland -- relieve early or late and overwhelm opposing hitters in key moments.
It worked Saturday.
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